Morgan: 50-50

“L-NP in front on Face-to-Face Morgan Poll for First time since Federal Election”, reads the Roy Morgan headline, with some understatement: the 51.5-48.5 headline figure represents the first time the Coalition has led Labor in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split. Labor’s two-party vote has crashing to 48.5 per cent from 53 per cent a fortnight ago (52.5 per cent on the respondent-allocated measure), from primary votes of 38 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for Labor, 43 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent (steady) for the Greens. The poll covers 1757 respondents from the last two weekends of face-to-face surveying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,358 comments on “Morgan: 50-50”

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  1. Pancho 1317…

    Could I take up your question to Frank…re, our 3 greatest PM’s ?

    Actually I will nominate 4PM’s.. all labor too.,and not in any particular order !

    First without any doubt…

    ‘John Curtin,……..who in a sense saved Australia in the dark days of 1942,after the dreadful neglect of Menzies and the tories between 1939-41.

    Curtin died in the service of Australia in 1945,as much as if he had died in battle.

    next ..Ben Chifley…who was Curtin’s friend, colleague and treasurer and who laid the foundation for a better and fairer post-war Australia .after the years of depression and war.

    Then of course Gough Whitlam,….with his great vision and who finally gave us a national health scheme,after all the years of argument on the matter. who ended conscription and withdrew from Vietnam,and for a time gave us a hope of a more independent foreign policy…that died when he fell in 1975.

    Finally I would also nominate Andrew Fisher who was PM three times…but whose major term from 1910-1913 saw a host of nation- building projects ,and financial reforms with the setting up of the Commonwealth Bank/Trans-continental railway/the RAN/the inception of Canberra/the Baby Bonus/ and many other projects which were lost in the horrors of the First World War

    Could I recommend to you that you read the three recent and inspiring biographies of Andrew Fisher/Curtin and Chifley…all by Prof David Day of La trobe University..a remarkable trilogy on these three PM’s…there are many recent books on choose from…including his own works..

    If you know little of Fisher perhaps read that first,because he is many ways like Whitlam in his vision.and it’s a great introduction to Labor History….

  2. It’s Time @ 1280
    [How big? … Will Labor suffer a net loss of votes if it provides a more humanitarian solution to asylum seekers? ]

    A Roy Morgan poll from April 2010, found that 64% per cent of Australians felt that asylum seekers arriving by sea should “be returned and apply through normal refugee channels”.

    26 per cent were happy with the current system while 10 per cent wanted some other system in place or didn’t know what should be done.

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