“L-NP in front on Face-to-Face Morgan Poll for First time since Federal Election”, reads the Roy Morgan headline, with some understatement: the 51.5-48.5 headline figure represents the first time the Coalition has led Labor in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split. Labor’s two-party vote has crashing to 48.5 per cent from 53 per cent a fortnight ago (52.5 per cent on the respondent-allocated measure), from primary votes of 38 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for Labor, 43 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent (steady) for the Greens. The poll covers 1757 respondents from the last two weekends of face-to-face surveying.
The last christmas break was bad for Rudd, for Gillard this christmas break cant come fast enough. Make ‘it stop’, ‘please make it stop’ she is saying.
OK Gillard, want make a name for yourself, want to gain some popularity with Australians, AND be doing the right thing, and feel good too?
Forget the USA behind the scenes demands and come out 100% for Assange and lead the charge for his human rights and natural justice, lay all the blame on the US and its leaker. Put the nature of the leaks in its proper perspective.
At the moment Rudd is looking like a real leader because his doing just this.
TP
Why dont you stand for election or start your own party.
thank you Gus,
and i agree with julia re the leeks
I love how morgan tries to suggest that it is telephone polls that have a bias. Sorry mate, but it is the f2f methodology that is clearly biased. Correcting for such bias strengthens the suggestion from both recent essential and morgan phone polls that current state of play is 53+ 2PP for the coalition.
my say
anyone has issue with you, they have issue with me
🙂
my say:
[TP
Why dont you stand for election or start your own party.]
The Paine Party 😛
[However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split.]
Looking at the elections result:
ALP 38.0 Coal 43.6 (3.7) Greens 11.8 FF2.3 Other4.3
and the current poll composition:
ALP 38 Coal 43 (5) Greens 13.5 FF1.5 Other 4
it would appear that 50/50 would be closer to the mark.
The 5% for the Nats is quite high.
JJ
Not sure that the size of the lead is as large as you imagine, but the polls are consistent in one outcome: Fed Labor would lose an election if it were held now.
Am v. curious to see whether the loss of Brumby, Kenneally and Bligh will help Fed Labor.
Am also v. curious to see whether the slender lead in the polls will save Abbott.
May 2011 be an interesting year.
Thomas Paine: Paul Bongiorno on Channel 10 News said that the AFP’s declaration that Assange can’t be charged with any offences in Australia is rather embarrassing for Julia Gillard. 😉
And yes, I’m in full agreement with you that Rudd looks more like a leader than Julia and her gang of enablers/U.S Embassy spies.
You and I better duck as the Gillard supporters start pelting the rotten fruit. 😀
Ron
[you may be surprised to learn classified names of allied informers & collaborators (who is assistancing allies) , is kept secret to keep them alive}
i am not surprised to hear this. However, I am not prepared to limit someone’s freedom of speech by demanding that they have an understanding of something that has been kept secret. What can possibly be the basis for demanding people to understand the impact of what they say, if the mores and impact around the topic of conversation has been kept secret?
I am not ‘either/or’ as far as Kevin and Julia is concerned. I like them both, for different reasons. Also I do not expect leaders of the ALP to be mistake-free. That is part of the problem; the Labor government being held to a much higher account than the conservatives ever were.
I expect that if the Labor government is to be effective, it will have to take a hit in the polls. It will have to do things that causes pain to someone or even a lot of someones. That after all, is what the middle year of the term of office is for, is it not?
A poll comes out 50 – 50 and the usuals want to write off Labor in an election that’s 3 years off. Amazing stuff.
[Thomas Paine: Paul Bongiorno on Channel 10 News said that the AFP’s declaration that Assange can’t be charged with any offences in Australia is rather embarrassing for Julia Gillard.
And yes, I’m in full agreement with you that Rudd looks more like a leader than Julia and her gang of enablers/U.S Embassy spies.
You and I better duck as the Gillard supporters start pelting the rotten fruit.]
Well, surprise, surprise evan.
Australian’s have always had a number of limits on freedom of speech and in fact no right to freedom of speech at all.
In any situation if you don’t understand what you are saying or it’s impact on my country I hope either you stfu or go to jail very quickly.
[You and I better duck as the Gillard supporters start pelting the rotten fruit.]
Look in the mirror old son, that’s where the rotten fruit is consistently coming from. Same propaganda.
julia is pm
full stop
kev is happy to be fm
STOP THE SPECULATION
[I expect that if the Labor government is to be effective, it will have to take a hit in the polls. It will have to do things that causes pain to someone or even a lot of someones. That after all, is what the middle year of the term of office is for, is it not?]
That was the problem the Rudd government had. They were high in the polls but were seen to be getting nothing of any real import done.
Twitter – 3 hours ago
Farnsworth
It’s a fair point – embassy staff write cable reports on local politics, business, etc all the time. They’re not policy documents.
– Full conversation
? mfarnsworth? Gillard says it’s important to be clear that cables are written by individuals and don’t necessarily reflect official views and policy.
Twitter – 3 hours ago
? mfarnsworth? Gillard says “absolutely not”, warns against conflation of issues… “the foundation stone here is an illegal act which breached US laws.”
Puff, the Magic Dragon.:
[I expect that if the Labor government is to be effective, it will have to take a hit in the polls. It will have to do things that causes pain to someone or even a lot of someones. That after all, is what the middle year of the term of office is for, is it not?]
True. And it has only been 4 months since the government was formed. There is plenty of time for things to change.
POMS all out and trailing by 81 🙂
Tom Paine…right again..Gillard would stop the fall In her popularity if she apologized…and kicked out the nest of US spies in her cabinet
Now the Federal police sa that Assenge is innocent, only the rabid pro-US right-wingers like Ron and Frank would be unhappy .
.
Assenge is an Internationally know fighter now and known everywhere for his defence of our freedom to KNOW THE TRUTH.,about the liars and crooks who run so many nation-state including our own country !
Obama I said to want new laws allowing for indefinate detention without trial in the USA….very Stalinist.
Shame on you Obama!!
I think it is a holding match until the new senate formation in June (?) 2011. It could get a bit desperate with the Coal’s before then. They so do not want to face that nightmare in opposition. Losing the power of government and influence in the Senate is an emasculation that Abbott et al could not bear. They will fight, lie and scheme trying to hold off the inevitable and nothing that happens in the next six months will surprise me.
[Tom Paine…right again..Gillard would stop the fall In her popularity if she apologized…and kicked out the nest of US spies in her cabinet]
What a joke.
Deblonay — if we were to “KNOW THE TRUTH” the newspapers should publish the leaks in full and complete.
You people who jump up and down saying freedom of speech — how about making the full cables available to everyone (not just on the net — which is only accessed by tragics like us).
My in-laws, for instance, believe everything they read in the paper — but the papers have cherry-picked, just as they always do, in order to make one side look good or bad.
The very first one released online is about AWB and their dodgy dealings with Hussein — where is THAT published in the fairfax press????
You think you have access to the truth? The cables have firstly been ‘redacted’ by wikileaks, then cherry-picked by Fairfax … believing you’re getting the TRUTH in that circumstance is really naive.
Jokes are funny Gary that is either sick or just sad.
Hmmmm, I see that the Rooineks are lulling the Aussies into a false sense of complacency.
Can’t wait for the Australian top order to perform to expectations.
Labor is coping it from all sides at the moment and it well could get worse before it gets better.
However, in three years time all things may be different. In six months all thing may be different. The PM is going nowhere, Kevin is not running rogue, Santa is coming so who cares. Polls will change.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion and fair enough. My opinion is if a change of PM is in your Xmas requests either because you are a liberal voter or because, for some reason, you just do not like her then all I can say is happy Christmas and bad luck.
Julia will be PM in three years and labor will win. Why ? Because I am a labor voter.
Actually — us being behind on polling will make it certain that the coalition cannot force an early election — holding pattern or no.
Not interested in the polls right now, but it will be interesting to see how Abbott goes in the new year with the senate changes. After having watched Turnbull on LL not long ago makes me think there maybe a challenge to Abbott from within his own party.
About the cricket good to see the Aussies hit back, but I still think Ponting is living on borrowed time.
Lot of us this afternoon 🙂 I really don’t know I’d Julia can do it or not. With jokers to left of her clowns to the right here we are stuck with her in the sensible progressive centre
Ronster et al
I think you are right about some of the leaked cables endangering lives of innocent people, or even more importantly people who did the right thing.
I gather there have been no actual documented deaths yet but that is no excuse.
The people who were endangered were as result of the earlier leaks of Afghan and Iraq War cables, not this recent State bunch.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@22
The best thing going for Labor is the need to satisfy the independents and Greens which it will be able to from 1 July 2011. Despite itself, it will have to take action on climate change in 2011-12 after all. I think its electoral prospects will rise or fall depending on their commitment to it.
There will be a lot of squirming and reluctance in the party on a carbon price/ETS – for example Ferguson, Arbib and the other faction leaders (other than Albo), among many others.
If the party is perceived to be dragging its feet on the issue; and fails to lead very strongly and convince the voters that real action must be taken, then I believe that will hit Labor’s support badly. We only have to look back to April this year to see what a public perception of government insincerity does to the primary vote.
And the party is coming from a long way behind on this. They had dumped everything progressive. The public will have to believe that Gillard and the Cabinet now genuinely want to ensure the carbon level if kept to 450 ppm. Otherwise I think they will be in trouble. Not necessarily because of the issue itself, but because of the continuing failure of leadership.
[I gather there have been no actual documented deaths yet but that is no excuse.]
This goes to the heart of my point. How will any observer know whether this concern for informers-at-risk-from-Wikileaks actually exist, or even suffer from their exposure
How would you test the claims, confirm thier reality or otherwise
To my mind, this is an important point. I can’t think of any other critism against Wikileaks that’s come anywhere near convincing me they’ve done any wrong
Another leak (not a wikileak though). Fox News journalists ordered to cast doubt on any aspect of climate science.
[In the midst of global climate change talks last December, a top Fox News official sent an email questioning the “veracity of climate change data” and ordering the network’s journalists to “refrain from asserting that the planet has warmed (or cooled) in any given period without IMMEDIATELY pointing out that such theories are based upon data that critics have called into question.” ]
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201012150004
Mr Squiggle
It would be almost impossible to prove in any individual case that someone’s death was caused by a Wikileak cable but the lack of proof doesn’t mean Wikileaks can’t be criticised for endangering lives.
The heart of my point Mr Squiggle remains the same it is very simple. We have a democratically elected government that appoints the executive and the judiciary all who have jobs to do, there are checks and balances (yes sometimes they fail – eternal vigilance is required) I trust that government to keep secrets where they are needed in the interests of my country.
If you do not wish to so believe and wish to support other rogue elements that disrespect me an my goverment so much then do so that is fine but if you do and cause any harm at all I hope there is a good law that sends you to jail rapidly.
That you couldn’t know is probably part of the reason it is secret. It is at best a self-serving ‘I know better’ and if I don’t it is their fault argument at worst it is internally inconsistent.
This line is one of the standard justifications for state secrecy. The game is to throw general guilt on to those who expose the information in order to pressure them to acquiesce to state secrecy.
To use the obvious need not to put secret agents or informers at risk as a reason to say that no secret documents should be released is to use a straw man fallacy.
The media organisations to whom the latest material was provided by Wikileaks apply the usual professional standards in refraining from identifying individuals when that would put them at risk.
In other words it isn’t a problem, and it remains in the public interest to get the vast majority of the documents out there.
And his expertise was constitutional law I believe so he cannot claim ignorance when suggesting Stalinist methods. Detention without trial, indefinite detention without trial, so what does due process, rule of law and the words legal and illegal mean? Indefinite detention without trial makes due process, rule of law and legal/illegal meaningless.
A decade of Bush has turned the US into a toilet. The race to become China it seems.
Hopefully Obama didn’t suggest these things.
To be fair I think diog has made the point (or at least a vaguely similar point) before that this recent crop barely deserves the description ‘secret’ still classified I understand but rather less exciting than the eatablisment / rebel debates it has bubbled to life
When it is a competition between safety and freedom always err on the side of freedom. Many a crime committed against the people under cover of ‘safety’.
It is not a straw man at all jv – it is not a fallacy. There are many reasons why things can and should be secret and five minutes in any level of govt in Australia would highlight about 90% of them.
If you are relying on the media for your public interest test I refer you to how absurd your position is in light of diogs post 34. However unlike wikileaks the media have a legitimate and understood role in our democracy. Just sad currently they aren’t up to it.
It comes back to whethe you believe in democracy or not.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/16/daniel-ellsberg-wikileaks_n_797801.html
If you have to risk damaging your own government or in fact openly advocate destroying it’s mechanisms then I hope you soon taste the ‘freedom’ of lawlessness.
[I trust that government to keep secrets where they are needed in the interests of my country] –
I don’t.
I admit that good governement may be facilitated by secrecy. Afterall, one of the best forms of government is a benevolant dictatorship.
The question is not whether secrecy facilitates government processes. Its whether Wikileaks is evil to publish names of people who have helped a government.
Wikileaks is not wrong. And for those who say names should be kept secret, what is your evidence for asserting this, if everything has been kept secret? How do you know?
I assert there is nothing wrong with what Wikileaks has done. The AFP appear to agree, within the context of Australian Law.
If you can offer examples of why I should otherwise, I am happy to do the reading, because this is the only point on which I have come even remotely close to thinking Wikileaks have done anything wrong. I am ready to be persuaded.
[Not sure that the size of the lead is as large as you imagine, but the polls are consistent in one outcome: Fed Labor would lose an election if it were held now.]
there is no election being held. forget the polls and just govern for the long term. polls and focus groups are a cancer on democracy.
Post 44 I think is a very good post – thank you. There has been a bit of fluidity in whether or not wikileaks ‘solicits’ leaks of all sorts or not and exactly what / who will be a filter between wikileaks and the public.
Simply put I would rather no-one leak to them and that the Parliament of australia the ministers of the crown and the courts be the filter on what is released to the public. If you structured a good law tomorrow that let wikileaks and all similar entities be shut down then as a democracy we lose nothing. I say this because you can leak true or false documents and some parts of the media will give it a run. Look at utegate – look at watergate – look at the pentagon papers.
[It would be almost impossible to prove in any individual case that someone’s death was caused by a Wikileak cable but the lack of proof doesn’t mean Wikileaks can’t be criticised for endangering lives.]
It is also impossible to know what lives have been saved by the release of the cables?
Whilst it is possible to prove that a known lie that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction did result in a large loss of life.
WWP
[To be fair I think diog has made the point (or at least a vaguely similar point) before that this recent crop barely deserves the description ’secret’ still classified I understand but rather less exciting than the eatablisment / rebel debates it has bubbled to life]
This lot are fairly low-level in terms of secrecy. Somewhere between 2 and 4 million people could access them in the US. That’s probably why Gates isn’t too fussed by them. They are embarrassing and enlightening but they are hardly dynamite.
WeWantPaul@41
That’s a remarkable conclusion that doesn’t follow logically from what goes first.
This is about ensuring transparent honest government, with government accountable to the voters for everything it does. Voters in the US, the UK, Australia and elsewhere have not been getting that. Governments operating in secrecy – following a policy agenda without telling the electorate – is not democracy. That is government by an executive avoiding oversight by the people through parliament.
From time to time there are leaks that expose such action. The entry into the Iraq war being a notable one involving Australia. The UK manipulation of its Iraq inquiry to whitewash the outcome another. The AWB expose is another example. There are already many actions of the US government that have been entirely without scrutiny by the people revealed in the Wikileak documents. Again, that is in the public interest and is to be encouraged.
spectator
[It is also impossible to know what lives have been saved by the release of the cables?
Whilst it is possible to prove that a known lie that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction did result in a large loss of life.]
I agree with that.
I am pro-Wikileaks but I’m a bit more of a moderate than others. That’s why I was busted to private and deployed to Siberia.