Morgan: 50-50

“L-NP in front on Face-to-Face Morgan Poll for First time since Federal Election”, reads the Roy Morgan headline, with some understatement: the 51.5-48.5 headline figure represents the first time the Coalition has led Labor in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split. Labor’s two-party vote has crashing to 48.5 per cent from 53 per cent a fortnight ago (52.5 per cent on the respondent-allocated measure), from primary votes of 38 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for Labor, 43 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent (steady) for the Greens. The poll covers 1757 respondents from the last two weekends of face-to-face surveying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,358 comments on “Morgan: 50-50”

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  1. This won’t help a lot.

    [A RIOT has broken out on Christmas Island, with asylum seekers directing anger at Indonesians who skippered a boat which hit cliffs, killing at least 30 people.

    Up to 100 asylum-seekers, including women and children, this afternoon massed in an open area of the Phosphate Hill detention centre, shouting and chanting “Help me, UN.”

    One held up a sign saying “Help, where is UN?”]

  2. It does follow jv. If we are talking about small scale focused leaks of government wrong doing you are with me in supporting protection for people who breach laws and contracts to stop the wrong.

    And the wrongs you list im the bottom paragraph are in the public interest ( i mean exposing them) and were all achieved without wikileaks.

    At the moment wikileaks is taking i upon itself to leak tabloid school yard stuff not in the public interest at all. Some have said wikiboy deliberately seeks to destroy diplomatic communication. That is deliberately disrupt a legitimate part of our government without any public interest

  3. I think we should wairy and see what the real story is behind the “riot”.

    A story originating from MSM reporters should be treated with caution. With all due respect to everyone people jump up and down about the quality of the media in this country yet still seem to accept what they publish.

  4. The press is beating up for all it’s worth the PM’s wanting to set up a committee to disseminate the facts about the Christmas Island tragedy. It is quoting the bit of her speech that could possibly be misconstrued. It was obvious from the whole presentation that the committee is to be about making sure that the pollies got the FACTS.

    The selective quoting out of context is a disgrace.

  5. [You think you have access to the truth? The cables have firstly been ‘redacted’ by wikileaks, then cherry-picked by Fairfax … believing you’re getting the TRUTH in that circumstance is really naive.]

    jenauthor – I’ve been quietly laughing about that all afternoon. So Wikileaks is giving us the freedom to read whatever we want to and have it reported accurately and fairly! Absolute balderdash as evidenced by the Dorling articles and those in the OO. We only got the negative words about Stephen Smith but the positive and complimentary words about him were not reported. Those who don’t have time to read the cables will not know that.

    TP can now post about the right to know and the wonderful freedom Assange has given him but in the end he’ll get nothing more than some journo wants to give him.

    The damage may already have been done to some in Iraq and Afghanistan. Can we say that Assange might have blood on his hands?

  6. [Australian Federal Police in Indonesia are tonight closing in on the people smugglers who put passengers on the doomed boat that was wrecked off Christmas Island.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/17/3096439.htm?section=justin

    [At the meeting he is introduced as one of the best in the business by another of Indonesia’s most prolific smugglers, because he knew the Indonesian coast so well and could get his boats to Australia undetected.

    Sources in Indonesia are saying he worked in partnership with a number of Iraqi smugglers who may also have contributed passengers to the doomed boat.

    All of those smugglers were exposed in the Four Corners program.]

  7. If people had the courage to leak documents revealing the truth back in the Bush years hundreds of thousands of Iraqis would be alive today.

    Let us not mix up the issues as I have said a few times already. I am most interested in creating/preserving an environment in which leaks can occur and make it the public. This is essential safety valve in any democracy. The persecution of WikiLeaks and Assange is plainly an attempt to shut down this environment and leave it to the MSM whose owners are often in league with Government grouping.

    It is inevitable that some leaks will seem meaningless, or inadvertently cause harm. I condemn leaks that because of slackness or negligence lead to harm. However that does not mean closing down the environment for leaks.

    The cost of democracy is eternal vigilance and information is essential to that.

  8. I don’t know how Ponting got out but that shot by Michael Clarke was disgraceful – cross bat to a good length ball a bit outside the off stump.

    Anyone see that footage on the 7:30 report from 1927-28 with Donald Bradman and Archie Jackson?

    The ABC’s TV coverage 7 till 8 of today’s politics was pretty good, unlike that on PM.

  9. The damage may already have been done to some in Iraq and Afghanistan. Can we say that Assange might have blood on his hands?

    That is a particularly stupid comment and ranks up there with the question to Gillard yesterday, if she had blood on her hands.

    Well does she punk? Does she?

    Of course not. Yet she is responsible for policy that enables the environment that tragedy happens in.

  10. [The cables have firstly been ‘redacted’ by wikileaks, then cherry-picked by Fairfax ]

    Wikileaks isn’t doing the redacting; the partner papers are. Fairfax would obviously cherry-pick the most interesting parts to actually report on but WikiLeaks releases all the redacted cables without cherry-picking them.

  11. WeWantPaul@53

    And the wrongs you list im the bottom paragraph are in the public interest ( i mean exposing them) and were all achieved without wikileaks.

    No, for a start the material about the UK nobbling its inquiry to suit the US over the reasons for invading Iraq is from one of the Wikileaks cables.

    If you read through the reports on the cables at the Guardian site you will realise this isn’t just gossip. Once you’ve read through it, if you don’t think the release of a hell of a lot of that isn’t in the public interest all around the world – we aren’t just talking about Australia here – then I think we have different views as to the proper accountability of government and the need to prevent government duplicity.

  12. It is instructive, as I have mentioned a few times already, that on a mostly left participant blog there has to be a defence of transparency of government, of freedom of speech and information. It is almost surreal and would be the equivalent of a blog conversation during the Howard era.

    But as we all know, if we are honest, that if this were a Howard government everybody would be assailing the PM and stridently defending WikiLeaks and Assange. It says more about the nature of party supporters and the issues at hand.

  13. TP,
    [That is a particularly stupid comment and ranks up there with the question to Gillard yesterday, if she had blood on her hands.

    Well does she punk? Does she?

    Of course not. Yet she is responsible for policy that enables the environment that tragedy happens in.]
    You really have no idea, do you? Just think about the contradiction in your last paragraph.

    I’m avidly looking forward to your next comment which will be: “Contradiction? What contradiction?”

  14. [On GDP size –
    Indon – $1,027.4 B 234 Million people
    Aust – $ 882.3 B say 22 Million people.]

    From previous thread.

    This is incorrect. the Indonesian economy (GDP) is not bigger than Australia, it is only about 60% of Australian.

  15. Most of the stuff on Australia is pretty dull as we are nice. 😀

    Lots of other countries have had much bigger problems with the WikiLeaks disclosures.

    India torturing people in Kashmir won’t go down too well in Pakistan.

  16. You know Labor is in trouble when the Libs are ahead in a Morgan F2F poll.

    If I was Gillard I’d be watching my back for knives coming from Bill Shortens direction, the preferred choice of the faceless men.

  17. Is Julia referring to Arbib here? 😉

    [Ms Gillard said confidential cables could identify people living under repressive regimes who were providing information to the US and that could have consequences.]

  18. This is a nice summary of the balance between the need for secrecy and the electorate’s right to know what its elected government is doing on its behalf – from the Economist:

    If secrecy is necessary for national security and effective diplomacy, it is also inevitable that the prerogative of secrecy will be used to hide the misdeeds of the permanent state and its privileged agents. I suspect that there is no scheme of government oversight that will not eventually come under the indirect control of the generals, spies, and foreign-service officers it is meant to oversee. Organisations such as WikiLeaks, which are philosophically opposed to state secrecy and which operate as much as is possible outside the global nation-state system, may be the best we can hope for in the way of promoting the climate of transparency and accountability necessary for authentically liberal democracy. Some folks ask, “Who elected Julian Assange?” The answer is nobody did, which is, ironically, why WikiLeaks is able to improve the quality of our democracy. Of course, those jealously protective of the privileges of unaccountable state power will tell us that people will die if we can read their email, but so what? Different people, maybe more people, will die if we can’t.

    https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/11/overseeing_state_secrecy?page=5

  19. vp

    If I was a rich man….

    If I were a rich man….

    What one is correct or can both be? And what is this subjunctive of which you speak?

  20. [A poll comes out 50 – 50 and the usuals want to write off Labor in an election that’s 3 years off. Amazing stuff.]

    We could have an election next week if the Indies see fit.

    The “3 Years till the next election” is not only getting old, but it’s a complete furphy.

    There will be an election when and how the Indies see fit. Even IF Labor lasts the 3 Years, the Indies will probably be calling the election date, Labor is that powerless.

  21. Gus

    When you look at some of the $hitty stuff other countries have been up to in Wikileaks it does remind you that we have it pretty good here.

  22. [If people had the courage to leak documents revealing the truth back in the Bush years hundreds of thousands of Iraqis would be alive today.]

    TP – I seem to remember there were quite a few whistleblowers in the UK, the US and Oz with documents casting enormous doubt on WMDs existing in Iraq. Even the chief weapons inspector was extremely dubious and asked for more time.

    Bush, Blair and Howard were determined that nothing would stop them – not even knowledgeable whistleblowers.

    Dio is right – the India/Pakistan leak will not play well.

  23. [Labor is that powerless.]

    Your frustration is showing and you’ve 3 more years of it to endure. Delicious.

    I hope you find each and every day completely excruciating.

  24. And the usual Gillard apologists try to dismiss another bad poll for her on the grounds that it’s either almost Christmas or the biased media rigged it!
    If I were Julia, I’d be keeping a very close eye on one Bill Shorten. 😉

  25. Diogenes,

    “Is you is or is you ain’t …”

    I reckon you know precisely but, just in case, the subjunctive is used where the statement is about what might have been / may be rather than factual. The romance languages are much stricter about this sort of stuff. Here, hey, who cares!

  26. Ms Gillard said confidential cables could identify people living under repressive regimes who were providing information to the US and that could have consequences.

    Silly billy Gillard, still endeavouring to demonize Assange and WikiLeaks.

    She IS on the US leash. Owned along with the other protecteds.

    Wonder is she has called for Cheney’s imprisonment for involvement in outing a CIA agent?

  27. [Your frustration is showing and you’ve 3 more years of it to endure. Delicious.]

    Yeah and Kevin will lead Labor to the 2010 federal election.

    An election can be held at any point between now and the next 3 years. The punters are betting money down it’s next year, maybe you should put your money where your mouth is and bet on it?

    The truth is that no one knows when the next election will be held, because thats dependent on future events and the decision of the Indies. Saying it absolutely rock solid no doubts about it will be in 3 Years is complete bullshit.

  28. GW @ 67
    [You know Labor is in trouble when the Libs are ahead in a Morgan F2F poll.]

    I think the opinion polls are mainly related to a marked downturn in business conditions over the last month, following the Melbourne Cup interest rate rise.

    There could also be a Ted Baillieu honeymoon effect, with Victorians really liking their new moderate Coalition premier & these positive feelings also rubbing-off on the federal Coalition. (Sort of a reverse of the way in which unpopular state Labor administrations hurt federal Labor in NSW & QLD.)

    Once the economy improves, and the Ted Bailleiu honeymoon effect fades, then the polls will become positive for Labor.

  29. Gillard Labor is excruciating to watch at the moment. Obviously Rudderless, drifting aimlessly desperately in need of something to pull support to them. Yet the one thing they could use they cannot in order to not upset the USA’s Assange vendetta.

    At least the AFP learnt its lesson from Haneef and doesn’t want to go down that road for yet another PM.

    I wonder if Rudd’s putting the blame on the USA for the leaks and him embarassing Israel the other day was a message to the US to leave off Assange. Would be interesting, keep watching this space.

    Wonder if Rudd will make a visit to the UK soon and reiterate the AFPs findings ? That would make the USAs job all that much harder in trying to pin something on Assange

    🙂

  30. [Gillard apologists]
    Do you mean those who think said lady is doing a good job?

    Now, about Abbott apologists. Sorry that should be: “those who refuse to acknowledge that said male is inexcusable.” That is, most of our pretend journalists and various others. No one on William’s site, naturally.

  31. Srsly, Gillard needs to get her act together quick smart. She is competent alright in most that she does, I give her that. But a leader? She don’t got it, she doesn’t get it at all. 100% tin ears.

  32. I hope William will indulge me in posting the first 10 paragraphs of Julia’s presser today…..for the benefit of TP, Rod Hagen and any other PBers who doubt our PM‘s priority in relation to the terrible tragedy earlier this week…no opinion, just FACTS:

    PM: Can I start by advising people that today as I speak an extensive search and rescue mission is continuing to occur at Christmas Island. They’re searching along the shore line and we have rescue divers in the water.

    The HMAS ‘Pirie’ and the Customs vessel ‘Triton’ are engaged including in areas where ocean currents may have taken survivors or victims. Three aircraft, including two P3 Orions are involved in the search. The operation will continue until nightfall and an assessment will be made then about whether or not it continues tomorrow.

    I do want to be clear though, that given the passage of time I believe we do need to face the grim reality that it is becoming increasingly unlikely, an increasingly remote possibility, that survivors will be found at this stage.

    The numbers of survivors hasn’t changed since yesterday and as people were advised yesterday it remains at 42. I can confirm that there are three Indonesian crew members amongst the survivors and they are being interviewed by the Australian Federal Police. I can confirm that a further two victims have been found amongst the wreckage of the boat by rescue divers and that does bring the number of victims to 30.

    Now I know Australians are united in their sadness and their shock at these events and that people’s thoughts are on the loss of life and the family members who are grieving, on the circumstances of the injured and I believe people’s thoughts are also with those on Christmas Island who tried to help and are now dealing with such difficult memories of this incident and I believe people thoughts are also with our rescue personnel, our Navy and Customs and Border Protection personnel who have been involved in the search and rescue efforts in this tragic incident.

    I think Australians are thinking of this today and certainly their good wishes and thoughts are with the grieving, with the injured, with the people of Christmas Island and with our search and rescue personnel.

    It remains unclear exactly how many people were on the vessel and we may never know that number with precision. Three survivors have been airlifted from Christmas Island to Perth overnight.

    I advised yesterday that there had been some movement of other survivors, so that now brings to five the total number who have been airlifted to Perth for assistance. Now four of those individuals required the specialist assistance that can be made available to them in Perth through the health care system and one is the husband of the injured woman who has also gone, obviously, to be with his wife in these circumstances. Other injured survivors are being treated at Christmas Island.

    Obviously the survivors of this incident are traumatised and they’re receiving all the care and support we can provide. An imam met with survivors yesterday and arrangements are being made to hold a memorial service that is likely to be on the 19th or 20th of December. A memorial service or services and they will be for the purpose of recognising the loss of life and allowing people to grieve.

    Obviously we are very mindful as well of the needs of the people of Christmas Island at this difficult time. Counselling services have been offered to Christmas Island residents who participated in the rescue or witnessed the incident. A shopfront has been established on Christmas Island with professional counsellors to provide immediate assistance to community members who feel they need that assistance.”

    Link:  http://www.pm.gov.au/node/7062 

  33. Tom Paine @ 87
    [ Yet the one thing they could use they cannot in order to not upset the USA’s Assange vendetta.]

    What utter & complete rubbish!!

    If pro-Assange feelings were causing Labor to lose support, then why the hell is that support flowing to the Coalition, which is even more pro-American than Labor ??

    The opinion of Labor officials quoted in one of cables is correct … the 2004 election clearly showed that Australians will never elect a prime minister who is perceived to be anti-American.

  34. vic

    [Australians will never elect a prime minister who is perceived to be anti-American.]

    He doesn’t want to believe it so therefore it can’t be true

    Simple 😉

  35. End of cricket for the day. Oz + 200, 3 down. Watson and Hussey seeing it like a watermelon. Pitch playing beautifully. Oz needs +400 to win.

  36. Talking about being leaderless, what was the go with the calls for a “bipartisan inquiry” the other day by Labor?

    Do they want the Coalition to hold their hand, tuck them into bed and read them a bed time story?

    We really do have a rudderless government at the moment floundering about with no clear direction or leader. And I think most Australians are waking up to this fact.

  37. FDinny,
    The cia site reports it in gdp (ppp) which is the second line on the dfat table. From what I can gather, I think ppp is the gdp value of those goods and services in the USA.

  38. Gary #13..usually Paul Bongiorno is pro Gillard and pro labor, if he wears blinkers they are usually of a red color. blind Freddy can see all is not well within the Labor Party, Federally and States and for Franks benefit, the West is in pathetic shape.

  39. [FDinny,
    The cia site reports it in gdp (ppp) which is the second line on the dfat table. From what I can gather, I think ppp is the gdp value of those goods and services in the USA.]

    Incorrect.

    PPP is a number adjusted for population.

    In this case PPP of GDP would be the average GDP income per person.

    China has a very high GDP per year but has a low PPP GDP because of their huge population for example.

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