“L-NP in front on Face-to-Face Morgan Poll for First time since Federal Election”, reads the Roy Morgan headline, with some understatement: the 51.5-48.5 headline figure represents the first time the Coalition has led Labor in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split. Labor’s two-party vote has crashing to 48.5 per cent from 53 per cent a fortnight ago (52.5 per cent on the respondent-allocated measure), from primary votes of 38 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for Labor, 43 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent (steady) for the Greens. The poll covers 1757 respondents from the last two weekends of face-to-face surveying.
It’s Time,
I have no no idea how many votes Labor would lose or gain by adopting the Greens’ preferred position on AS. Do you?
And if you’re going to speculate on the electoral effect of a hypothetical change of policy, remember to factor in the electoral impact of three years’ worth of a hostile, pro-Liberal media beating up whatever change Labor would make.
I think we have seen at least some positive signs from the Labor government on Asylum Seekers in recent times, Lizzie, despite the difficulties that the Coalition’s moronic “Stop the boats – all you have to do is reopen Nauru” nonsense add to the political side of the game, making rational solutions even harder.
Real solutions on the “regional” model truly are going to be difficult, and slow to achieve if they are really to be worth anything, but they are still important to pursue.
At the “local” level we have , at least, seen the start of some movement towards “normalisation” with increased use of community based processes.
I noticed, too, that when asked about the future of Christmas Island as a processing centre the other the day an equivocal answer was given which just might mean that those there may be moved to the mainland for “processing” before too long. This would be a step in the right direction, too. We have also seen the creation of the centre at Inverbrackie. These sorts of things, I think, are positive move sin turning “Asylum Seekers” or “boat people” into real people, though there is still a long way to go.
I suspect also that Labor have now recognised the craziness of the decision to suspend processing of Afghan and Sri Lankan Asylum seekers earlier this year.
So there have been some positive moves.
THe inordinate delays in processing urgently need addressing, though. The process of fulfilling the agreement with Indonesia to settle 500 people from the UNHCR supported lists there this year needs to be hurried along substantially , too, if Australia expect other countries in the region to have genuine faith in Australia’s desire for a regional processing solution. The other obvious thing is that Labor have to move beyond the “stop the people smugglers” mantra as the first line of response to “stop the boats”, and start reselling a message which they were actually very effective with against Howard in the last year or so of his government. Labor actually had substantial sections of the media on side over this issue back then, if you cast your eyes over the papers from that period. They lost them when they started back-peddling on this stuff. Some reselling of the earlier messages , and policy adjustments in accord, might well claw back some ground in that area.
One thing that I think would be worth doing in Victoria, by the way, is putting pressure on Baillieu, through Petro Georgiou, to take a pro-actively positive stance on “on shore” processing and resettlement here. Sure Abbott wouldn’t like it, but it could actually work well here electorally. Certainly much better than a return to the “stop the boats” mantra would.
So the socially conservative Labor supporters are scared of an issue which ranked 12 out of 15 in importance for how voters would vote in a federal election.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/07/19/essential-report-voting-issues-and-the-values-card/
When will they grow a pair and take on Abbot on such a minor issue?
[ It’s Time
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:23 pm | Permalink
So the socially conservative Labor supporters are scared of an issue which ranked 12 out of 15 in importance for how voters would vote in a federal election.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/07/19/essential-report-voting-issues-and-the-values-card/
When will they grow a pair and take on Abbot on such a minor issue?
]
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.
The Real World will produce a VERY different result.
[Tony won’t NEED the Indies one bit – He will get in all on his own 🙂 ]
Not if the indies don’t give him the power to call an election. Are you still trying to scare the kiddies with shadows Frank?
[It’s Time
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
Tony won’t NEED the Indies one bit – He will get in all on his own
Not if the indies don’t give him the power to call an election. Are you still trying to scare the kiddies with shadows Frank?
]
I’m talking about in TWO years time.
A lot can happen in 2 years 10 months Frank
[And if you’re going to speculate on the electoral effect of a hypothetical change of policy, remember to factor in the electoral impact of three years’ worth of a hostile, pro-Liberal media beating up whatever change Labor would make.]
So Cuppa the MSM will lay off Labor if it doesn’t make a change in its asylum policy? That’s just delusional. Labor has to have a strategy to deal with a hostile MSM for the whole of its term on any and every issue. Are you suggesting that Labor do nothing so that it doesn’t give the MSM a target to hit?
[Tony won’t NEED the Indies one bit – He will get in all on his own]
Not within 2 years he won’t. If you think of how much has happened in the past 6 months, and how much commentators and the public have either forgotten or moved on from given the speed of the political cycle, Labor has ample opportunity to recast a number of issues and have its narratives become successes before the next election.
If, as has often been alleged here, Howard pulled everyone to the right and made asylum seekers a major issue, then it follows that this is a pretty recent development, and not the natural way things need to be in Australia. The first time he had a go at doing this in 1988, he was laughed out of parliament because Hawke and Keating had the authority and conviction to say that racial populism isn’t the way we want to play politics.
Labor can win by doing the right thing, and what it – and most of its members – wants to do. They just need to lead on the issue, and continue to make their point.
Serious question for Frank et al., what is the point of having power if it is just to mirror odious fools and claim that there are so many racists about that there’s no point even trying to do what you want to do? It’s my hope and belief that Labor will make some serious running from the middle of the year on a series of issues that most of the party (and country) believe in, and that have been stymied by Abbott, the Oz and a few of their pals. And hopefully once things get moving again, we won’t continue to have this pathetic spectacle of an ALP being the reactive party of Australian politics, afraid to tell Murdoch, the miners, Abbott etc., that they are actually in charge and are going to implement some policy.
That is it!!! the Poms simply cannot handle sex.
[‘WAGS aren’t to blame,’ Andrew Strauss says – ENGLAND skipper Andrew Strauss insists the arrival of team WAGS didn’t quell the tourists’ killer instinct and trigger a stunning third Test capitulation against Australia in Perth.
England had looked invincible after crushing Australia by an innings and 71 runs in Adelaide.
But the arrival of England’s glamour partners and families last Monday coincided with a stunning reversal of fortunes at the WACA ground that saw Ricky Ponting’s men level the series with a 267-run triumph.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/the-ashes/wags-didnt-affect-us-andrew-strauss-says/story-fn67w6pa-1225973528520
[So Cuppa the MSM will lay off Labor if it doesn’t make a change in its asylum policy? That’s just delusional.]
No you’re the one who’s delusional. I didn’t say that.
Understand this: the media will NEVER lay off Labor. Whatever it does. I thought anyone who’s knocked about on PB would have got that by now…
[Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.
The Real World will produce a VERY different result.]
But Frank, those are the lies, damn lies and statistics which your mates Bitar and Arbib follow religiously. Remember the polls which showed that Rudd was going to lose? You haven’t lost the faith, have you?
[ pancho
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:32 pm | Permalink
Tony won’t NEED the Indies one bit – He will get in all on his own
Not within 2 years he won’t. If you think of how much has happened in the past 6 months, and how much commentators and the public have either forgotten or moved on from given the speed of the political cycle, Labor has ample opportunity to recast a number of issues and have its narratives become successes before the next election.
If, as has often been alleged here, Howard pulled everyone to the right and made asylum seekers a major issue, then it follows that this is a pretty recent development, and not the natural way things need to be in Australia. The first time he had a go at doing this in 1988, he was laughed out of parliament because Hawke and Keating had the authority and conviction to say that racial populism isn’t the way we want to play politics.
Labor can win by doing the right thing, and what it – and most of its members – wants to do. They just need to lead on the issue, and continue to make their point.
Serious question for Frank et al., what is the point of having power if it is just to mirror odious fools and claim that there are so many racists about that there’s no point even trying to do what you want to do? It’s my hope and belief that Labor will make some serious running from the middle of the year on a series of issues that most of the party (and country) believe in, and that have been stymied by Abbott, the Oz and a few of their pals. And hopefully once things get moving again, we won’t continue to have this pathetic spectacle of an ALP being the reactive party of Australian politics, afraid to tell Murdoch, the miners, Abbott etc., that they are actually in charge and are going to implement some policy.
]
How delusional.
You do recall how close Abbott got to being PM ??
I can assure you that in two years they will go into overdrive to ensure he ggets in – and they WILL use the AS issue.
[It’s Time
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.
The Real World will produce a VERY different result.
But Frank, those are the lies, damn lies and statistics which your mates Bitar and Arbib follow religiously. Remember the polls which showed that Rudd was going to lose? You haven’t lost the faith, have you?
]
And had they ignored them – Rudd wouldv’e lost.
But live in Fantasy land.
[How big IS the racist underbelly? Nobody knows for sure, but there’s no doubt it’s big.]
There are different “levels” here, though Cuppa. Yes, Australia has its fair share of out and out racists. I’ve had the misfortune to meet quite a lot of them in my working life. It also has a lot of people who are disquieted about “difference” and who can be quite easily led down the Abbott path on this stuff without being true racists. These people are much more susceptible to arguments based on “equity” and “fairness” , etc , though, if the points are put strongly and directly, rather than equivocated around and run away from.
Labor has had too much of a “bob each way” in recent times on this stuff. True racists are going to vote with right anyway. Those in the “disquieted” camp are going to do so too, if the Government equivocates or seems to be playing “Abbott Light” on the stuff. Why vote for the “Light” version if it is equivocal? It is so easy for an opposition to turn the argument into “you’re just pretending to be tough. We are the real thing”. Following that approach has simply played into Abbott’s hands.
[Labor’s only got to lose a few per cent of them to the Liberals.. and you’ve got Abbott and their AS policy.]
I think Labor has lost more votes on both sides by equivocating than it would have by running a more balance and obviously compassionate line on this stuff, Cuppa. It has to carry the debate, not let itslf be carried by it.
[ Cuppa
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:34 pm | Permalink
So Cuppa the MSM will lay off Labor if it doesn’t make a change in its asylum policy? That’s just delusional.
No you’re the one who’s delusional. I didn’t say that.
Understand this: the media will NEVER lay off Labor. Whatever it does. I thought anyone who’s knocked about on PB would have got that by now…
]
Presicely correct.
You thought last Election campaign was bad for Labor media wise – the next one will make 1975 look like a campaign to elect a classroom parliament.
Frank,
Who are your top 3 Australian PMs?
[Understand this: the media will NEVER lay off Labor. Whatever it does. I thought anyone who’s knocked about on PB would have got that by now…]
But Cuppa, at #1301 you’re using this as justification for Labor not adopting a different asylum seeker policy. And for some unknown reason you think that this relatively unimportant issue in the minds of voters (see #1303) will poison a significant number of Labor voters for the next 2+ years. Given the limited attention span of the MSM and the voting public I think this unlikely.
[And had they ignored them – Rudd wouldv’e lost.]
Frank, make up your mind. If the poll data is good enough to scare you and Bitar and Arbib into knocking off Rudd then the same source of data must be good enough to demonstrate that asylum seekers is not a significant issue in the mind of voters. Or do you only accept data when it supports your personal prejudices?
[It’s Time
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:40 pm | Permalink
Understand this: the media will NEVER lay off Labor. Whatever it does. I thought anyone who’s knocked about on PB would have got that by now…
But Cuppa, at #1301 you’re using this as justification for Labor not adopting a different asylum seeker policy. And for some unknown reason you think that this relatively unimportant issue in the minds of voters (see #1303) will poison a significant number of Labor voters for the next 2+ years. Given the limited attention span of the MSM and the voting public I think this unlikely.
]
Yet Tony’s 3 Word Stop The Boats mantra has struck withm and will continue to resonate with voters – including those traditional blue collar, working class who would normally vote Labor.
[It’s Time
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
And had they ignored them – Rudd wouldv’e lost.
Frank, make up your mind. If the poll data is good enough to scare you and Bitar and Arbib into knocking off Rudd then the same source of data must be good enough to demonstrate that asylum seekers is not a significant issue in the mind of voters. Or do you only accept data when it supports your personal prejudices?
]
You don;t get it – the polling was only ONE factor – and not the deciding one.
But that little fairytale is the one perpuated by the Ruddistas.
[You thought last Election campaign was bad for Labor media wise – the next one will make 1975 look like a campaign to elect a classroom parliament.]
So this is justification for Labor to be an ineffective, do-nothing government while it waits for the MSM to decide the outcome of the next election? It seems Frank that you are the one scared of shadows.
[It’s Time
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:49 pm | Permalink
You thought last Election campaign was bad for Labor media wise – the next one will make 1975 look like a campaign to elect a classroom parliament.
So this is justification for Labor to be an ineffective, do-nothing government while it waits for the MSM to decide the outcome of the next election? It seems Frank that you are the one scared of shadows.
]
Irt;s called living in a political reality – something Greens don’t want to believe exist =- they prefer the fantasyland they have created for themselves.
[including those traditional blue collar, working class who would normally vote Labor]
If labor was primarily dependent on traditional blue collar, working class votes these days, Frank it would have been wiped out twenty years ago. There simply aren’t enough of them left to elect any government. Labor has been massively dependent on votes from well educated people working in a wide range of occupations for yonks now.
[Yet Tony’s 3 Word Stop The Boats mantra has struck withm and will continue to resonate with voters – including those traditional blue collar, working class who would normally vote Labor.]
Well Frank, if you and your traditional blue collar working class voters are scared by 3 word mantras then there’s not much hope for Labor, is there? Labor should just hand over the keys to the Lodge to Tony straight away and not bother to fight or cajole or persuade or argue or entice or inform or lead.
[1324 Rod Hagen
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:54 pm | Permalink
including those traditional blue collar, working class who would normally vote Labor
If labor was primarily dependent on traditional blue collar, working class votes these days, Frank it would have been wiped out twenty years ago. There simply aren’t enough of them left to elect any government. Labor has been massively dependent on votes from well educated people working in a wide range of occupations for yonks now.
1325 It’s Time
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:54 pm | Permalink
Yet Tony’s 3 Word Stop The Boats mantra has struck withm and will continue to resonate with voters – including those traditional blue collar, working class who would normally vote Labor.
Well Frank, if you and your traditional blue collar working class voters are scared by 3 word mantras then there’s not much hope for Labor, is there? Labor should just hand over the keys to the Lodge to Tony straight away and not bother to fight or cajole or persuade or argue or entice or inform or lead.
]
Two people who have forgotten Tasmania in 2004.
[. Given the limited attention span of the MSM and the voting public I think this unlikely.]
I agree the media do have a limited attention span in many ways and on some issues. But they certainly do not have a ‘limited attention span’ when it comes to boosting the Liberals and their moronic slogans. They are single-minded in that objective, and it would be most unwise to underestimate their influence on voter behaviour.
Look at the way they overlooked / beat up / biased the coverage of very sensible and worthy Labor policies such as the mining tax. If one were to go by the media’s coverage (which many in the population unfortunately do) one would be excused for believing the mining tax was a complete dud. When of course it was no such thing.
The media are the real Opposition in this country – the enemies of progressivism. Talk about them “laying off” Labor is just delusional.
That’s not to say, though, that Labor does not need to lift its game in selling itself and policies. As Possum tweeted the other day (wtte): “Thank goodness Labor did not invent the wheel. They’d have a hell of a job selling its benefits.”
Goodnight Frank.
Have fun. Just by the way, its 2010 now. Seen what has been happening in Tassie more recently?
Rod Hagen,
Thanks for your input. I always appreciate your well-considered comments. I’ll give what you’ve said some thought.
[ Rod Hagen
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink
Goodnight Frank.
Have fun. Just by the way, its 2010 now. Seen what has been happening in Tassie more recently?
]
One ignores the past at it’s peril.
At the past’s peril? Poor past.
[But they certainly do not have a ‘limited attention span’ when it comes to boosting the Liberals and their moronic slogans. They are single-minded in that objective, and it would be most unwise to underestimate their influence on voter behaviour.]
So it is pointless for Labor to vacate the field on the asylum seeker issue and leave it to Abbott and his MSM cronies? If Labor can’t win on a relatively unimportant issue such as this (based on the survey of voter perceptions), how can it hope to win on issues such as mining tax or global warming?
Hopefully there is is progress on a regional processing centre in East Timor or elsewhere which will provide a reasonable solution to the asylum seeker issue. However the government’s silence since the election must make one pessimistic.
[ndiced view
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 11:01 pm | Permalink
At the past’s peril? Poor past.
]
You know EXACTLY what I am talking about.
But the Greens are insular about the past.
reel polisy , A-S , Labor’s
my #1299 addressed Labors in full vs Greens and vs Liberals , with NO reference to electoral impacts at all
seems Greens bloggers (Its Green , sorry Its Time) Rod Hagen & j/v , run away from A-S polisy substance
Hey Frank
There hasn’t been anything in the news about those AS (about 300 I think) who got sent to a WA outback town and who were allowed freedom of the town.
I gather that means they are settling in Ok or the media would be on to it like a ton of bricks.
Have you heard how they are going?
[So it is pointless for Labor to vacate the field on the asylum seeker issue and leave it to Abbott and his MSM cronies? ]
But that’s to say that Labor don’t have an AS policy. They do. Children no longer locked behind razor wire. Families being moved into centres on the mainland. Quicker expedition of claims. Harsher disincentives to people smugglers.
As I say, it’s easy to be self-righteous when you’re not the ones being wedged (rather, doing some of the wedging) and don’t have to take the hard decisions yourself.
[ vera
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 11:10 pm | Permalink
Hey Frank
There hasn’t been anything in the news about those AS (about 300 I think) who got sent to a WA outback town and who were allowed freedom of the town.
I gather that means they are settling in Ok or the media would be on to it like a ton of bricks.
Have you heard how they are going?
]
They haven’t moved in yet – but Tony in the loal rag is going on about promising to close it if elected PM.
[Cuppa
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 11:11 pm | Permalink
So it is pointless for Labor to vacate the field on the asylum seeker issue and leave it to Abbott and his MSM cronies?
But that’s to say that Labor don’t have an AS policy. They do. Children no longer locked behind razor wire. Families being moved into centres on the mainland. Quicker expedition of claims. Harsher disincentives to people smugglers.
]
Which for the Fibs, and their media Cheer Squad is way too soft.
[I think we have seen at least some positive signs from the Labor government on Asylum Seekers in recent times, Lizzie, despite the difficulties that the Coalition’s moronic “Stop the boats – all you have to do is reopen Nauru” nonsense add to the political side of the game, making rational solutions even harder.]
The reason Stop the Boats works so well is that every week, more and more boats show up and Labor appears to be doing nothing.
Now if there were no boats, or very few boats this line wouldn’t work very well.
But what we have instead is more boats every week breaking new records on numbers. Next year will be the same and I’ll predict there will be about 9,000 boatpeople next year assuming Gillard does nothing, which looks like what her current plan is.
What the lefts problem here is that they keep saying there is no problem, but every week and passing month the little trickle in the dam walls gets ever larger and the claim that the “dam wall is structurally sound nothing to see here folks” line is getting old. What was first a trickle is now gushing stream and pretty soon the entire dam wall looks to collapse.
I ask this one simple question, at what point will the left say enough is enough? 10,000 boatpeople per year? 50,000 boatpeople per year? 100,000 boatpeople per year? Where will you draw the line?
The 4th quarter results for Newspoll (Federal) are available here: http://bit.ly/hugXox
Ron
The people where I live couldn’t care less about a carbon tax, what they do care about, especially the aged ,disability pensioners, carers and those on the minimum wage and low incomes is the fact that their power bills have doubled over the past year and are tipped to increase another 40 to 60% next year, They are freezing in winter and sweltering in summer because they can no longer afford to use their fans or heaters.
This is the lucky country?
Labor could win all these folk by saying . we care, we’ll use the $6bil we saved on the NBN to repair and upgrade the power infrastructure which the state and Fed govts have allowed to run down over the past 10 years. Then tell these people their bills won’t need to increase as they won;t have to pay for the infrastructure as they the govt will’
Another thing the people don’t give a stuff about is gay marriage (which along with the carbon tax was the main topic of discussion in the final sitting of parliament thanks to the Greens running the agenda instead of Labor)
They are more interested in having somewhere to live and not being on the waiting list for public housing for 7 years. Then there are the ones living in cars or sleeping in parks or if they are lucky getting a bed in a shelter for the night.
If Labor want’s to get back to it’s roots it should bite the bullet and spend up big on lots more public housing, forget spending millions on committees and year long studies on crap stuff.
Get a public housing boom going and stop the power bills doubling and they might start looking like they give a stuff .
[vera
Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
Ron
The people where I live couldn’t care less about a carbon tax, what they do care about, especially the aged ,disability pensioners, carers and those on the minimum wage and low incomes is the fact that their power bills have doubled over the past year and are tipped to increase another 40 to 60% next year, They are freezing in winter and sweltering in summer because they can no longer afford to use their fans or heaters.
This is the lucky country?
Labor could win all these folk by saying . we care, we’ll use the $6bil we saved on the NBN to repair and upgrade the power infrastructure which the state and Fed govts have allowed to run down over the past 10 years. Then tell these people their bills won’t need to increase as they won;t have to pay for the infrastructure as they the govt will’
Another thing the people don’t give a stuff about is gay marriage (which along with the carbon tax was the main topic of discussion in the final sitting of parliament thanks to the Greens running the agenda instead of Labor)
They are more interested in having somewhere to live and not being on the waiting list for public housing for 7 years. Then there are the ones living in cars or sleeping in parks or if they are lucky getting a bed in a shelter for the night.
If Labor want’s to get back to it’s roots it should bite the bullet and spend up big on lots more public housing, forget spending millions on committees and year long studies on crap stuff.
Get a public housing boom going and stop the power bills doubling and they might start looking like they give a stuff .
]
You have nailed it one.
Horses Hooves playing bride and groom ain’t the vote winner the Greens want it to be in the real world.
Frank
This is what I was thinking of
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/41842.html
[The 4th quarter results for Newspoll (Federal) are available here: http://bit.ly/hugXox%5D
Thanks for that GWV. Hmm, looks like a swing against Labor in SA (spillover from Rann/Foley presumably) but towards Labor in Queensland (wow – Shy Tory Effect, maybe?). Could just be statistical noise, but interesting nonetheless.
Frank
We don’t always see eye to eye but we still agree on some things 😀
There haven’t been rumours of THE Borg coming back has there? 😉
Abbott offered to double refugee intake, says Wilkie
http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-offered-to-double-refugee-intake-says-wilkie-20101219-191xe.html
[ Gary
Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 12:14 am | Permalink
Abbott offered to double refugee intake, says Wilkie
]
And shows how desperate Abbott was to secure Wilkies vote – though like the Hospitals promise it seems he woul;d’ve reneged.
NBN business plan finally revealed.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/nbn-business-plan-finally-revealed-20101219-191xs.html
[Abbott offered to double refugee intake, says Wilkie]
You watch Their ABC ignore this story.