Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian has Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining results from its six post-election surveys to obtain samples big enough for state, gender and metropolitan/regional breakdowns. These indicate that Labor has held its ground on two-party preferred thanks to gains in Queensland, where their two-party vote of 48 per cent compares with 44.9 per cent at the election. From a low base, the state has delivered a six-point boost to Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, her approval up to 40 per cent and disapproval down to 44 per cent. This has balanced losses in New South Wales (down 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent), South Australia (down 2.2 per cent to 51 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.3 per cent to 55 per cent). Labor is up 1.4 per cent to 45 per cent in Western Australia, in line with Westpoll’s recent results. Labor is down 0.5 per cent across all capitals, driven by a 5.1 per cent fall in the primary vote, and up 1.4 per cent in non-capitals (which I wouldn’t have picked). The Coalition has suffered an unlikely eight point hit on the primary vote among the 35-49 age bracket, a correction after a rogue result in Newspoll’s famed election eve poll.

UPDATE: The last Essential Research survey for the year has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the poll’s monthly measure of personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, Tony Abbott is one point on each to 39 per cent on each, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-34. The big winner from the poll is Julian Assange: 53 per cent approve of the release of the Wikileaks material with just 25 per cent disapproving, and 46 per cent disapprove of the government’s response (the question explicitly referring to the Prime Minister’s “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal” lines) against 32 per cent who approve. Fifty per cent believe Assange should receive support and assistance from the Australian Government if he is charged with an offence by the US or another country, against 26 per cent who believe he should not. The poll also finds 43 per cent support (steady on a year ago) and 37 per cent opposition (up two) for the development of nuclear power plants for electricity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,153 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

Comments Page 121 of 124
1 … 120 121 122 … 124

  1. Frank,

    Channel 7 TV news started off with someone crying and saying the State government isn’t doing enough for them. Great headline, not.

  3. [Channel 7 TV news started off with someone crying and saying the State government isn’t doing enough for them. Great headline, not.]

    The nutters are out in force, one ABC local caller said it was all Gillard’s fault and the army should have moved in weeks ago. 🙁

  5. I see that some farmers are calling for the Federal Government to subsidise farm insurance.

    The policy appears to be that the taxpayer will take the risk and the farmers will take the profits. This is par for the rural socialist course, naturally.

    Having watched my commercial strawberry crop turned into jam by means of a ten minute hailstorm, I actually have had first hand experience of the issues.

    I do hope that the Gillard Government avoids this one like the plague.

    I do hope that Abbott will, for once, restrain his populist inclinations.

  6. Boerwar,

    I got a mention-in-dispatches for PB 700,000. No doubt it’ll be someone’s privilege to bestow upon my deserving self the 1,000,000.

    Are you watching? They are alpenhorns without the bends.

  10. I think the Tattoo could be improved through having some of Dear Leader’s chaps doing their metronomic thing.

    *thinks, will post a message on Dear Leader’s Facebook page suggesting same*

  11. The next issue from the Qld floods will be a spike in veggie prices feeding into the CPI, who will be the first Rabble dill to blame Gillard? Hockey, Robb ?

  14. Boerwar,
    [Ah…. but, but, but… isn’t the musical mechanism different in Alpenhorns and Didgeridoos?]
    My only advice on this bit is: decant the reds! Love TLAs!

  15. [I think the Tattoo could be improved through having some of Dear Leader’s chaps doing their metronomic thing.]
    200 years ago you would have been Burns’ed at the stake.

  16. Re Max Gillies of Santamaria
    Thanks for that Frank…it was uncanny and he even had the right tone and the various speech mannerisms of B.A down to an art form
    Gave me the creeps just watching !!
    Happy New Year

  17. Happy Moo year bludgers 😀

    A Tone update seeing some have been asking where he is 😉
    He’ll be inspecting the qld floods next week to check up on the Govt and make sure they don’t let people down
    wangker 😛

    Tony Abbott said today he would visit flood-affected areas next week, describing the floods as “devastating” and the worst in 70 years.

    The Coalition leader said the floods would make it a tough new year for hundreds of thousands of people in Queensland and New South Wales.

    “I’ve been talking to Coalition MPs in flood-affected areas about the impact this disaster will have on households who will often have little, if any, insurance; small-businesses that have lost post-Christmas sales as well as suffered major stock losses; farmers who have lost crops; and miners who have lost production,” he said in a statement.

    “The clean-up will take weeks and the reconstruction months.

    “It will be a long time before life returns to normal and many people will bear the scars of these events for years.”

    Mr Abbott said he was “pleased” Ms Gillard was in the area today and flagged he would make his own visit next week to ensure the Coalition didn’t let people down.

    “My intention is to visit flood-affected areas next week to listen to local leaders and to assess what the government has done.

    “In government, the Coalition responded effectively to natural disasters; in opposition, we intend to ensure that the government doesn’t let people down.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/julia-gillard-humbled-by-bundaberg-flood-victims-new-year-wishes/story-e6frg6nf-1225979406479

  18. Boerwar
    [Having watched my commercial strawberry crop turned into jam by means of a ten minute hailstorm, I actually have had first hand experience of the issues.]
    What variety of strawberries are you growing?

  24. I went up to see OH at hospital. Took him out for some fresh air.
    We watched a young man pull up in his car, jump out, go through the ashtray at the smokers area & fill his pockets with butts, jumped in his car & took off. WTH!
    When we told the nurses what we had seen they said they have regulars.
    Jeepers! 😥

  25. [Tony Abbott said today he would visit flood-affected areas next week]

    He should come up here on the weekend. A good chance to get in some swimming practice for his next triathlon.

    It’s quite uncrowded on the Fitzroy River at the moment. 😉

  30. [Not doing it any more. Good money but too many chemicals. Main varieties we grew were Red Gauntlets and Tiogas.]
    It’s a great cash crop!
    I love Chandlers but they’re no good commercially. No keeping quality.
    What district were you growing them in.

  33. [I cringe sometimes when I see people wading in flood waters here.

    There’s heaps of crocs here, big ones too.]
    When we visited up north I thought it odd that they had a playground next to the river with a big sign, ‘Beware of Crocodiles’.

  34. Keep mooing on

    vp
    I’ll keep those doggies moving too Rawhide 😀

    Move ’em on, head ’em up,
    Head ’em up, move ’em out,
    Move ’em on, head ’em out Rawhide!

  37. [ Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, December 31, 2010 at 9:13 pm | Permalink
    Terrific review of Barrie Cassidy’s book by the Piping Shrike. Exposes a lot of the shallow thinking of many of the happy clappers here at PB regarding the knifing of Rudd. Thoroughly recommended.

    http://www.pipingshrike.com/2010/
    ]

    Does this section on high poll numbers apply to Colin Barnett ?

    [While Cassidy ignores the internal dynamic that enabled Rudd to over-ride the factions, he also has trouble understanding its external consequence; Rudd’s historically high polling. At least, though, he notes it:
    Rudd’s popularity was extraordinary. From the moment he became leader, he assumed a personal approval rating in the 60s, which stayed high for longer than the ratings for any previous leader. It didn’t matter whether he was in opposition against John Howard or in government against Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull or, early on, Tony Abbott; he maintained that high figure. It virtually flat-lined in the 60s for three years.
    His rating was ahead of that of his own party, although that figure was impressive throughout as well. On a two party preferred basis, under his leadership, the party went as high as 58 per cent to 42 per cent.
    The enduring nature of Rudd’s popularity was a political phenomenon. During Hawke’s height and even during Howard’s relatively mediocre polling, reams were written to explain how they manage to tap into the Australian psyche, with the media trotting out the usual cheeseball clichés about how the Australian electorate is supposed to think.
    Yet with Rudd, there has been virtually no attempt to explain it in the media, summed up by Cassidy’s own lame attempt:
    Why was Rudd so popular? The idea of a smart, youngish candidate apparently in touch with modern concerns was a huge plus. He was undoubtedly confident and competent. Howard, by comparison, was fast losing confidence and his body language in the parliament started to reveal the pressure he was so obviously feeling; he became more strident, less-footed.
    Leaving aside that Cassidy explains Rudd’s popularity in contrast to Howard’s, after having just noted it was pretty well the same no matter who he was against, the idea that Rudd was breaking new ground because he was “smart” and “youngish” and “in touch” (note the “apparently”) would apply to pretty well all new opposition leaders, but says nothing about what was happening with Rudd.
    The reason for Rudd’s popularity is simple, just as it is so difficult for the media and many of his colleagues to accept, he represented a break from the old political system of which they were part. So did Latham, for a while. Rudd just had the conditions, both externally and internally, to maintain it for longer. Once in power, Rudd used the apology, the 2020 summit and the climate change agenda to only reinforce his distance from the old party system and the sectional interests that supported it.
    ]

  44. Dee,

    My party is, with swmbo, watching TV. Tattoo (excellent) and Margot Fonteyn (execrable reconstruction). So, here I am.

    Before the fireworks I’ll have to watch a Jeeves and Wooster, something tolerable. Why do they ALL wheel out garbage? I know!

    The bottle of Grant Burge Pinot Noir bubbly awaits.

  48. Well vp my big sis is here and has decided we’ll watch the original cape Fear at 10.30

    I loved Robert Mitchum in his younger days (sexy as 😉 ) so I won’t mind .

    he’s a real baddy in this and Gregory Peck is the goodie

  49. [le mot précis. Or, in Aussie, bludger.]

    I have had two sightings

    one sunning heself

    the other was jogging on the beach

    apparently he is quite friendly in person

    “not as drawn and snakey”

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 121 of 124
1 … 120 121 122 … 124