12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.
11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.
11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.
11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.
11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.
11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.
10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.
10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.
10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.
10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).
10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.
10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.
10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.
10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.
10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.
10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.
9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:
On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.
9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.
9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.
9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.
9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.
9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.
9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.
9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.
9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.
8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.
8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.
8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.
8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.
8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.
8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.
8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.
8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.
8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.
8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.
8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.
8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.
8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.
8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.
8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.
8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.
8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.
8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.
8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.
8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!
8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.
8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.
8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.
8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …
7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.
7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.
7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.
7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.
7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.
7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.
7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.
7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.
7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.
7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.
7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.
7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.
7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.
7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.
7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.
7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.
7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.
7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.
7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.
7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.
7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.
7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.
7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.
7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.
7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.
7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.
7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.
6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.
6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.
6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.
6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.
6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.
6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.
6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.
6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.
6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.
6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.
6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.
6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.
6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.
6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.
Puff, The Magic Dragon
I agree with you re Labor selling their achievements and successes, something they didn’t do during the recent Federal election. In fact, I was unaware of some of them, and was quite encouraged when I heard of them when Kevin Rudd rattled them off on the evening before his resignation as leader.
The MSM will never be of any assistance to Labor, and they must figure out some way to get their message across to the voters. I know what is happening now because I regularly follow the HOR on APAC, but 99% of the public do not.
It’s a difficult issue for sure. I’d like to see fewer references to “Tone” and “Tony” both here and by some Labor MPs, including the PM. I feel this only gives him some form of legitimacy as a good bloke/nice bloke character, and creates the perception he’s just a good old Aussie bloke doing his best.
By Labor continuing this personal reference type approach may create the perception there’s not much between the 2 parties, when we know that is not the case.
Just call him Mr Abbott or the Leader of the Opposition.
4pm Diogs but who knows when they’ll update it online.
Glen
There were lots of things that they could have done a bit more ‘labor’ like, e.g. taking back public transport when all the contracts expired but they continued with the privatised system.
I dont think there is much to fear from Big Ted, we wont see a workchoices style ir policy (like the 1992 employement relations act from Kennet), there is nothing left to sell utility wise, planning might get more regulated!..health is so tied to the federal system and $$ i cant see anything dramatic happening..
[
4pm Diogs but who knows when they’ll update it online.]
Has William been woken up to tell him he hasn’t got Sunday off?
The one thing I hate about Abbott is his cowboy swagger I mean ffs.
Dagget
correct. I take the view that the govt was voted out, not the coalition voted in.
Glen
not just his swagger. There are a few other disturbing behaviours you could add.
Glen, with all due respect to your good self, I’m afraid that Bailieu will be a colossal disaster! Come on, he’s nothing more than a Kennett clone, or a scary combination of Kennett & Abbott. 😉
Labor State Governments are becoming an endangered species – perhaps by this time next year, only David Bartlett in Tassie will be left?
Tim Holding/Jacinta Allen as the next Vic Labor team – prediction!
[I take the view that the govt was voted out, not the coalition voted in.]
Isnt this what happens every time a government loses??
I dont think for a minute that the people of Victoria voted for the Libs. It is more the case that the voted against the ALP.
Victoria
Even though they were voted out, the legacy will continue. For instance the regional rail link, that should have been done at the start of the RFR project but will continue.
Another great thing is how the agenda has been shifted, we have had a liberal opposition promising to improve public transport, never thought that would happen.
Glen
Not always, but they did in this case.
Evan14 I am hoping bullyboy Hulls as Opp Leader 😀 just like Ripper in WA 😀
Evan14 you are most entitled to your own opinion the true test will be what can he say of his govt in 2014 and how they’ve made Victoria better well we’ll see…
Dagget
yes interesting that the Libs are promising to improve public transport. Hope so. As I said, Ballieu and his team can start asap. Happy with that.
Hulls would be a good oppn leader, has the fire and the spirit…
Brumby is the perennial loser – gotta feel sorry for him, unless you’re Glen. 😉
[I agree Brumby’s speech was over the top and may haunt him in a re-election campaign. And I think Puff is correct for the ALP are very poor at selling themselves.]
MexicanB@1209. I watched Steve Bracks this morning and thought what a loss to Federal politics. Easy to listen to, easily understood and easy on the eye.
re John Brumby’s speech last night – yes it did come out wrong – this is the same man who said a 12% swing against the ALP in the Altona byelection was a good result for Labor!
BH
Steve Bracks is a gentleman. I suspect family pressures pushed him out of the public eye.
Evan I have said previously I do feel sorry for the bloke (Brumby). He’ll be shattered because he’d have never thought he’d be smashed like this.
While we progressives in New South Wales have such low expectations that anything short of an electoral bloodbath in March 2011 will be a major surprise!
Gotta get used to Liberals winning at the state level, because we’re in for another 12 months of it.
Brumby is getting some payback for his grandstanding over Rudd’s health reforms!
I suspect he never had Steve Bracks’s common touch with the ordinary voter, and Bailieu came across as far more “folksy”.
Plus, Labor playing the man & not the ball in the final 2 weeks was a colossal error!
Evan14
It is just the electoral cycles evening up….back to the early 90s 😉
By next year the Liberals should have VIC, NSW and QLD along with WA leaving the ALP with SA, NT, ACT and TAS.
I wonder if Baillieu can win whether or not NSW Labor will have enough MPs to field a basketball team.
[Evan14 you are most entitled to your own opinion the true test will be what can he say of his govt in 2014 and how they’ve made Victoria better well we’ll see…]
I agree Glen amd I’m expecting very little from them.
[Brumby is the perennial loser – gotta feel sorry for him, unless you’re Glen.]
Yes, he’s only been a member of a team that’s been in government for 11 years. What a loser.
He was given the leadership of a party that had been in government for 11 years and was premier for at least 3 years. What a loser.
BH
Steve Bracks would never have been able to cut the mustard in federal politics – it is a much tougher place and he would have gone down in flames. No doubt a nice guy, extremely telegenic, a vote winner – but all at sea when he was forced to go off script – rarely seen as the spin control was omnipresent, but cringe worthy when he was out of his comfort zone. Quite a few people referred to him as Hymie the Affable Robot – a Maxwell Smart reference for those that may not know.
Glen @ 1274
Next Qld election due in 2012 – with polling like she has been getting , can’t see Anna Bligh going early!
My bad blackburnpseph…
I wonder if Rann is popping some champers given how he managed to hold on with 48% of the 2PP. Must be glad he didnt end up like Brumby.
evan14 I really think you’re starting to read too much into it. I’m not saying some of these things weren’t possibly factors but to say this or that played the biggest part is just guessing at best.
Well, as I said earlier, David Bartlett must have the best ratings of any current Labor Premier. 😀
Even Kristina Keneally’s charm offensive has worn off in N.S.W.
[Glen, with all due respect to your good self, I’m afraid that Bailieu will be a colossal disaster! Come on, he’s nothing more than a Kennett clone, or a scary combination of Kennett & Abbott.]
I wouldn’t characterise him as that at all, Evan14. He is nothing like as tough nor as aggressive as Abbott or Kennett. What worries me about him is that I very much doubt that he will be strong enough to stand up to far harder and nastier characters who play a huge role in deciding the direction of the Liberal Party. If ever a leader was in the front of a “faceless” pack of men and women it’s Baillieu. And I don’t just mean his invisible shadow front bench and elected MPs!
Gary: When you throw away a 13 seat majority in one election, it doesn’t look too good on your political resume. Sorry, but Brumby should never have lost that election.
BH – I think Bracks if he was in federal politics could make a good minister but he is like many state premiers who one hand are very good at state level but I am not sure if he would be as successful in federal politics.
Bailieu must be confident – he had his Speedos back on this morning at Brighton. 😉
The political cycle IMHO is playing out across the country. I can see the day in the not too distant future where we will have mostly conservative governments in the states and territories. Tas will hold out for some time and the ACT but the rest will go. That’s life, that’s politics.
You’ve all forgotten that Bracks was once a federal MP, for Bendigo from 1983-1990.
Correction: Brumby was a Labor Federal MP during the 1980s.
[Quite a few people referred to him as Hymie the Affable Robot – a Maxwell Smart reference for those that may not know.]
blackburnpseph – a bit like Hockey by the sound of it. Has other people write his ideas for him. I don’t know much about Bracks but this morning on telly he came across as open and pretty much in touch with what happened.
[Dagget
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 3:21 pm | Permalink
Evan14
It is just the electoral cycles evening up….back to the early 90s ;-)]
Bingo thats exactly what I think as well and it’s probably not a bad thing for federal Labor to let the public vent a little. I would much rather have state Liberal govt’s and federal labor than vice a versa.
I remember in 1971 a teacher telling me that the states don’t allways follow the feds regarding voting intentions and thats proved reasonably accurate over the years.
[Well, as I said earlier, David Bartlett must have the best ratings of any current Labor Premier.]
It’s a bit hard to compare because they don’t do approval ratings here on a regular basis. He was net -19 going into the last state election. He’s probably doing better than that now.
There will be a new EMRS poll released Tuesday but EMRS only do beauty-contest leader polling.
[Gary: When you throw away a 13 seat majority in one election, it doesn’t look too good on your political resume. Sorry, but Brumby should never have lost that election.]
Are you aware of the ammunition the Libs had to throw at Labor? Are you aware of the TV advertising blitz the Libs had in the last week? Are you aware those ads were very effective?
The miracle is that Labor kept some of those seats they were expected to lose.
Thinking about Baillieu further, he has some similarities to Turnbull, but without the strength or the sense of drive.
He reminds me of a rich man for whom politics is really a hobby rather than a vocation. Much less “self made” about him than we see with Turnbull, though. I think he will be easily led by others in the party.
Paul_J
The 1970s were interesting as well, liberal state Govs and fed labor. NSW bucked/lead the trend for a while with Wran in 1976, Greiner 1988…not this time though.
What happens with the betting markets in the event of a tie and another election?
11770 votes for the sex party has them outpolling the christian party and socialist alliance easily.
http://www.tallyroom.vic.gov.au/
James
I guess they return the money and say it was a no outcome.
[What happens with the betting markets in the event of a tie and another election?]
Double or nothing? 😉
[I wonder if Rann is popping some champers given how he managed to hold on with 48% of the 2PP. Must be glad he didnt end up like Brumby.]
Aren’t South Aussies not just a little be embarrassed by that result even now? I bet Our Julia is wishing she could get away with Majority Govt on Rann’s figures – or even Their Tone!
It’s even more amazing when you consider that Labor only suffered a net loss of 2 seats.
[What happens with the betting markets in the event of a tie and another election?]
Depends on the conditions set by each market (the usual is the party that provides the Premier following the election) and on exactly what happens before the new election. I’ve often thought the fine print in bookie odds is open for shenanigans in cases like that.