Victorian election live

12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.

11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.

11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.

11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.

11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.

11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.

10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.

10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.

10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.

10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).

10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.

10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.

10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.

10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.

10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.

10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.

9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:

On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.

9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.

9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.

9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.

9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.

9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.

9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.

9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.

9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.

8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.

8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.

8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.

8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.

8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.

8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.

8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.

8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.

8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.

8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.

8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.

8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.

8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.

8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.

8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.

8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.

8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.

8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.

8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.

8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.

8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!

8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.

8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.

8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.

8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …

7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.

7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.

7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.

7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.

7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.

7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.

7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.

7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.

7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.

7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.

7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.

7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.

7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.

7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.

7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.

7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.

7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.

7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.

7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.

7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.

7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.

7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.

7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.

7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.

7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.

7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.

7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.

6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.

6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.

6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.

6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.

6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.

6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.

6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.

6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.

6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.

6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.

6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.

6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.

6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.

6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,694 comments on “Victorian election live”

  1. [11770 votes for the sex party has them outpolling the christian party ]

    Now there’s some consolation one can take away from this poll!

  2. here’s one for BillBowe or Antony:

    would it be possible for the SA Libs to win the next election in SA on the new boundaries with a swing away from them?

  3. I’ve just been looking at the Baillieu Shadow Ministry and only recognise a few names (and that mostly from memory, not because I’ve heard them say much). I remember before Labor got in, we were very familiar with several people such as Peter Batchelor because they were so active. This time most of the running seems to have been by Big Ted (and Mulder).
    Makes me wonder how they’ll shape up.

  4. Feeney
    I have taken to calling him Anthony Abbott (his real name, I wish Julia would too) the Rabbott or loto (leader of opp’n) at least in print, the rest wouldn’t get past the filter.

  5. Glen
    You deserve to have a smile on your face πŸ™‚
    You had the guts to show up on PB through all the recent Lib defeats (Fed SA Tas)

    What’s happened to Dyno the other “good” Lib by the way?

  6. I just posted a comment on the other thread but perhaps it belongs here. I don’t really understand why Labor hasn’t conceded defeat. They just look like sore losers. Unless I misunderstand the count, as William said, Labor can only get to 44 each from here, and that is far from certain. They need the late / PV count to go their way in four seats to get to 44 all. Where can they get another seat to reach 45? I can’t see it. So it is either a hung parliament or a Coalition victory. Except that the odds of Labor winning ALL the doubtful seats, even if we say they are each 50/50 bets, is 1 in 16. Some of them are not 50/50 bets. Time to start the shredding machines.

    I don’t think Victorian Labor was that bad a government (exceptions: Lyn Koski on public transport and land use planning decisions; the desal plant was a fair call at the time) but it has clearly not run a campaign that engaged the voters. The combination of low voter turnout and a swing against the government is NOT a ringing endorsement of Ted Baileu, but it suggests that Labor’s campaign wasn’t very inspiring either.

  7. Vera I can only be smiling if the Liberals should they get in as looks likely they do a decent job.

    I had a good smile when Prahran was called for the Libs my preference must have helped Clem get over (not that he needed much in the end). I havent been represented by a Liberal in the Lower-House of a Parliament since the age of 16.

  8. I’m annoyed that Justin Madden has been rewarded for all his planning decisions by being given a LH seat. Surely he doesn’t think he can be a PM?????

  9. Glen

    Madden would be one of the reasons that Labor lost votes I think. I assume he was given a “safe seat” so that he have more influence πŸ˜›

  10. vera

    I saw on wikipedia that “storms” were blamed for the low turnout yesterday. I think someone’s making a huge assumption there. There were very few roads cut in the metro area πŸ˜†

  11. Frustrating that we aren’t getting any updates on counting in Bentleigh

    ABC have 6 seats in doubt now

    Albert Park
    Ballarat East
    Eltham
    Macedon
    Monbulk
    Narre Warren North

  12. lizzie
    didn’t Gough say something like, god save the queen because nothing will save the GG?
    I reckon nothing will save Tone, he will be gone before the next election maybe

  13. [Maddan survived thanks to DRUM ROLL the Greens peferences]

    I thought I saw something in Crikey during the week that the Green candidate was preference an anti-abortionist, anti climate change independent ahead of Labor in his seat?

  14. confessions

    You mean this

    [
    Eyebrows continue to be raised over Greens preference deals in the lead-up to Saturday’s Victorian state election, none more so than in the seat of Essendon where candidate Rose Iser is listing an anti-abortion advocate who was last year embroiled in a racist email controversy as the second pick on her how-to-vote card.
    ]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/11/22/greens-preference-anti-abortion-anti-carbon-tax-election-candidate/

  15. Lizzie, I don’t want to get too cocky πŸ˜‰
    But if Ted gets in Tone will have to go, only room for one pair of budgies in Oz politics I’m afraid πŸ˜€

  16. [But if Ted gets in Tone will have to go, only room for one pair of budgies in Oz politics I’m afraid ]

    Please don’t tell me Baillieu wears them too?!

    What is with Liberals and budgie smugglers? Remember Peter Debnam?

  17. Talking of how-to-vote cards, did anyone else experience this?
    In Gembrook: We received an htv card in the mail over a week out from the election which was different to the order later published in the local paper, also handed out on the day.
    I assume there was some last minute rearranging of the order by HO. We followed the later one (didn’t make much diff as Libs won anyway).

  18. I wonder what the reporting from the OO et al would have been had it been the Gillard Government that had run a national computer ‘glitch’ affecting millions (?) of consumers and many businesses?

    Is there a double standard whereby when the private sector delivers a major stuff up it is excoriated while when the private sector delivers a major stuff up, it is reported dead pan?

  19. oops…. talk about stuff ups… that should read… whereby, when the public sector delivers a major stuff up it is excoriated, while, when the private sector delivers a major stuff up, it is reported dead pan?

    In other words, is there something ideological going on here: public sector bad; private sector good?

  20. [I thought I saw something in Crikey during the week that the Green candidate was preference an anti-abortionist, anti climate change independent ahead of Labor in his seat?]

    Yes, they gave him their second preference in return for his. He’s not a climate change denier, but he opposes a carbon tax and has various other policies completely at odds with those of the Greens and completely incompatible with each other – he wants to simultaneously increase parking spaces, increase open space and decrease high rise development , for example. His policies are nuts.

    He was never a real player, though. They gave Madden their third preference, which was where the real world distribution ended, of course, in front of the Libs.

    Madden will be returned accordingly, on Greens preferences.

  21. Regarding Greens preferences in Essendon.
    I spoke with a number of Greens volunteers who were most upset by the preference flow. On the voting I scruitineered approx. 50% of Greens preferences put Labor 2.
    How can the Greens claim to be serious about issues like Women’s Rights and excessive development and then preference an Opus Dei supporter who has his placards plastered all over every multi storey development site in Essendon?!
    This did a lot to trash the Green brand locally, with many properties which carried prominent Green hoardings in the Fed campaign having nothing this time around. Similarly, the Green Booth Captain from the Fed campaign wasn’t sited this time, likewise a number of other local green volunteers.
    The Greens need to learn that opportunism will destroy their brand even faster than it has others.

  22. Hmmm

    How everyone not a Green loves to hate a Green!

    The Nats only got around 60% of the Green vote. The Nats are social neanderthals. They are going to reintroduce cattle into the High Country. They are climate change wreckers. They are extinction mongers.

    So, which is better, a Green or a Nat?

  23. [GlenPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 3:22 pm | PermalinkBy next year the Liberals should have VIC, NSW and QLD along with WA leaving the ALP with SA, NT, ACT and TAS.
    I wonder if Baillieu can win whether or not NSW Labor will have enough MPs to field a basketball team.
    ]

    Glen,

    Re WA read and learn – Barnett is slowly being exposed as the emporer sans clothes.

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/libs-led-by-dr-dolittle/story-e6frg41u-1225961985093

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