12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.
11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.
11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.
11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.
11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.
11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.
10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.
10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.
10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.
10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).
10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.
10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.
10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.
10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.
10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.
10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.
9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:
On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.
9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.
9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.
9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.
9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.
9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.
9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.
9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.
9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.
8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.
8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.
8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.
8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.
8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.
8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.
8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.
8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.
8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.
8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.
8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.
8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.
8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.
8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.
8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.
8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.
8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.
8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.
8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.
8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!
8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.
8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.
8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.
8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …
7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.
7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.
7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.
7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.
7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.
7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.
7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.
7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.
7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.
7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.
7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.
7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.
7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.
7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.
7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.
7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.
7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.
7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.
7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.
7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.
7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.
7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.
7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.
7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.
7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.
7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.
7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.
6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.
6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.
6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.
6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.
6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.
6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.
6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.
6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.
6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.
6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.
6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.
6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.
6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.
6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.
Well Well Well…
Firstly I was surprised by the result. My predictions were flat wrong.
It smacks of absolute hubris and denial that Brumby refused to conceed the election. Even if every single seat falls his way he only gets to 44 therefore he has lost his majority and lost his government. He was a gutless whimp sending out that scumbag Hulls out to claim the Brumby government could continue to govern based on these figures they cant. They are just ahead in about 3 seats and behind by several hundred in another.
I predict the Libs will end up with 45/6 based on the figures remaining. Given the smashing Labor got last night it would be foolish to believe that Labor will record big swings towards it in pre-polls. Labor faithful cheering and whooping during Brumby’s ‘victorys speech’ smacks of arrogance not seen since Keating in 1993.
I only hope that when Baillieu takes office he does a decent job. No point blaming Labor they’ve got to perform and get things done.
I am also glad that my preference helped to elect Clem in Prahran finally a non-Labor MP representing me in the lower-house of a parliament.
if 44 all ensues. What about Brumby and Ballieu decide on who is leader and who become deputy in a lab/lib coalition 😉
Glen
remind me what were your predictions?
Glen, I’ve been waiting for you to come on here. Why do you care, aren’t you an independent voter now?
and on this:
[I only hope that when Baillieu takes office he does a decent job. No point blaming Labor they’ve got to perform and get things done.]
Blaming them for what? Strong economy? World class systems and processes? Almost full employment? Give it up Liberal stooge.
And specifically…
[I am also glad that my preference helped to elect Clem in Prahran finally a non-Labor MP representing me in the lower-house of a parliament.]
Really, Clem???? Ask all those people who front up to the Libs head office in Higgins only to be told “we can’t help you”. You know where they end up, at the doorstep of their local ALP member where they almost alway are able to be assisted.
So much for your rhetoric Glen. Really pathetic to say the least.
Brumby 2-3 seat majority. I was well off.
[Blaming them for what?]
A failure to deliver basic services…public transport, hospital waiting lists, police ect…
Glen
if it is 44 all. Who should concede?
[A failure to deliver basic services…public transport, hospital waiting lists, police ect…]
You didn’t get “stop the boats” in there Glen. Keep repeating untruths though, that’s how Liberals get it.
It wont be 44 all victoria even you know this. Bentliegh is gone and probably too Macedon if not another by the end of counting pre-polls.
Nobody will conceed if by some strange course of events it ends up 44 all we’ll have another election.
Glen
You said that it was arrogant of Brumby not to concede. He would have, if the Libs had 45 seats, which we wont know until later today. So what has he done wrong?
George you really are a sore loser.
Deal with it!
If Labor had a history of providing good services to Victorians you wouldnt have got 10% swings in some seats.
Daniel Andrews and Rob Hulls reminded me of the Iraqi Information Minister…No we cant still govern without a majority WTF!
v
Both of them.
[68% of total counted yetserdaay. Expectations are that final number will be 92%.
This means over 25% of legitimate votes still to be counted in Bentleigh.]
68% is the state figure. For Bentleigh that figure is much higher at 74.9% (including informals). http://www.tallyroom.vic.gov.au/state2010tallyroomelectorateBentleighDistrict.html
In 2006 the final tally for Bentleigh was 94%.
Even assuming it is that high again that means 19/94 = c. 20% of legit votes still to be counted in Bentleigh, not 25%.
Informals at non-booth votes were 1% lower last time but that won’t make much difference. It will be more like 20% to go.
Boerwar
both of them should concede?
[You said that it was arrogant of Brumby not to concede. He would have, if the Libs had 45 seats, which we wont know until later today. So what has he done wrong?]
Victoria, what he has done “wrong” is that he is a Labor Premiere. Pure and simple. That’s the new mantra of the Liberal party and their supporters.
Firstly he claimed he would start governing Victoria on Sunday which he cannot do since he’s in care taker mode and then he said that Labor would have the opportunity to govern which they cannot they cant win 45 seats.
I will trust Antony’s computer over Rob Hulls and John Brumby any day 🙂
Glen
surely you are not as stupid as you make out to be?
[George you really are a sore loser.
Deal with it!]
You really don’t know me Glen. Many do here, personally outside of the blogosphere and your comments are typical of a Liberal. Oh wait independent. Oh wait, what are you today? Liberal cheering independent?
[If Labor had a history of providing good services to Victorians you wouldnt have got 10% swings in some seats.]
They do have a history of providing good services for ALL Victorians, not just a few. If you have any credible international comparative figures to show otherwise, please feel free to list them here. I can wait all day.
[Daniel Andrews and Rob Hulls reminded me of the Iraqi Information Minister…No we cant still govern without a majority WTF!]
Iraq is your (Lib’s) baby Glen – feel free to bring it up all you want.
[surely you are not as stupid as you make out to be?]
Yes, Victoria, there is a Santa Claus.
george
the rest of the developed world is a basket case, and Libs carry on as if we are living in the worst of times. Talk about ungrateful. I suppose Glen may not mind the newest immigrants that will be gracing our shores in the near future. The Irish. They are so desperate now, that once again their skilled workforce will be making their way downunder, because they know how good we have it.
Glen
Antony Green admitted that there were some factors he had not taken account of and so were not built into his program. One of them was the huge prepoll vote. For the benefit of other critics, you can’t blame the ABC for that.
Please, someone. Brumby presser at 1.30. Did it happen?
[the rest of the developed world is a basket case, and Libs carry on as if we are living in the worst of times. Talk about ungrateful. I suppose Glen may not mind the newest immigrants that will be gracing our shores in the near future. The Irish. They are so desperate now, that once again their skilled workforce will be making their way downunder, because they know how good we have it.]
Victoria, that’s why I can wait for as long as is necessary for Glen to once again front up with real statistics to prove the basis for his “Labor does not have a history of providing good services to Victorians”.
Like the basis for all his other positions on Labor’s record, they are based on fantasy land numbers and Liberal Party sloganism.
lizzie
it did I think? But I missed it.
[Please, someone. Brumby presser at 1.30. Did it happen?]
Not sure lizzie. I too would be interested to know what it was for.
george
the cost of providing every service at the click of a finger is totally unrealistic and highly costly. In fact, unaffordable in the real world. It is interesting that here we expect first class services, but no one wants to pay for the privilege. Not through their taxes or take home pay. Yes, it is the Liberal Pary fantasyland sloganism at its best.
Victoria I am sorry you think I am stupid. You are most entitled to your own opinion.
I find it strange that some politicians claim they can govern when they cannot win 45 seats. Let alone provide stable government which Brumby claimed he could provide at 44 all lol!
Brumby is in denial. Hulls is in denial. It was sad to watch really.
Geroge the failure of Brumby to deliver basic services is on record and I am sure you can find on your own enough data to illustrate this point.
I’d hate to think of the abuse I would be getting from you if Labor had won this election.
Glen
I don’t think you are stupid, but some of your comments betray you.
Yes it did, focus was on getting a result in Bentleigh today, although Brumby was pretty up beat, said ALP has won at least 42 seats, the same as in 1999 when they formed Govt so it is not really a loss.
On the one hand you have right wingers saying,
Government, get out of the way!
Lower taxes!
… Then on the other hand you have right wingers (assisted by the media of course) busting their asses to get INTO government to live ON taxpayers’ money.
Thanks, Dagget.
I fear our Brumbers is floating somewhere above reality. This is NOT 1999.
I see that the ABC Vic election computer projection has brought Bentleigh back to the ranks of the “undecided” – see http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2010/
Cuppa
they say govt get out of the way, but you must provide first class services in every facet of our lives at no cost. What a joke.
And to support my post, this from Twitter:
[josietaylor | 7 mins ago
RT @benschneiders: Amazing sense of unreality watching Brumby presser. It was as if the 10% swings in outer suburbs never happened #vicvotes #vicwaits]
Brumby said his losses were just ‘wear and tear’ me thinks John needs a long holiday.
Mmm, I got that wrong. The computer is now saying 44 for the Coalition instead of 45, but hasn’t changed the status of Bentleigh itself. Odd.
I say let the coalition have a go at providing better services without hurting the bottom line.
George v Glen
George I don’t think Glen was ever a true independant just not a fan of in his words the pathetic State Libs and of course Tone.
I must admit I am still waiting for the ads that tell me about how great the economy is and how wide ranging the Victorian Transport Plan but for some dumb reason the ALP focused on a Real Estate Agency selling property.
The campaign was defensive and that helped the Liberals for it didn’t make them fight it on policy but ummmm
Glen, you are wrong to claim that Brumby should have conceded for he has not actually lost. at best we have a hung parlianment or a small Liberal marjority.
There is nothing wrong with Hulls talking to the party faithful anymore than Ryan conducing this morning’s press conference on behalf of the alternatve Government.
And Prahran on papar at least is traditionaly a Liberal Party seat, The Greens flopped in Prahran in generally across the inner city.
[Geroge the failure of Brumby to deliver basic services is on record and I am sure you can find on your own enough data to illustrate this point.]
Glen, there is no such “record” other than that peddled by Uncle Rupert’s press rags. So as usual your basis of “failure” is made up via yoru own bias. I love showing you up, it’s a fun sport.
mexicanbeemer
you make some salient points.
[I will trust Antony’s computer over Rob Hulls and John Brumby any day]
Based on last night’s performance I would trust none of the above. The ABC is still going on figures for Bentleigh that are at variance with the VEC’s by 411 votes and no one has explained or tried to fix this inconsistency.
The Labor claim of a likely tie was premature and the various calls of a Coalition win last night were way premature even if they turn out to be correct. People need to learn to be more cautious.
[Mmm, I got that wrong. The computer is now saying 44 for the Coalition instead of 45, but hasn’t changed the status of Bentleigh itself. Odd.]
It looks like the front page estimates of the total have been updated but the projections from last night have not.
we may know by this evening if it is 44 all or 45/43 to coalition.
Mexican if you lose your majority in Parliament havent you lost?
[I must admit I am still waiting for the ads that tell me about how great the economy is and how wide ranging the Victorian Transport Plan but for some dumb reason the ALP focused on a Real Estate Agency selling property.]
mexicanbeemer, you wont get any argument from me there.
[we may know by this evening if it is 44 all or 45/43 to coalition.]
I think that is a tad premature Victoria. That is assuming Monbulk, NW North and Macedon dont fall to the Libs which is possible.
Glen the aim is to win 45 seats, at this stage only the Liberal/Nats can do that but until that happens then the current Govenrment remains in office until it is defeated on the floor of the parlianment
We need to remember that last night the ALP leadership team needed to remain composed otherwise it would have let its supporters down and in the event of a new election would have sent the message that it couldn’t handle the message the voters have sent.
Glen
In military terms it is called ‘strategic withdrawal’ or ‘advancing backwards’.
To me mexi it smacked of desparation and hubris.
To me for Brumby to claim he can still be in government with 44 seats is like claiming General Wenk will come to the rescue.
Glen
I will excuse you because you are young and immature 😉