12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.
11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.
11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.
11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.
11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.
11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.
10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.
10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.
10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.
10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).
10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.
10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.
10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.
10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.
10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.
10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.
9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:
On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.
9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.
9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.
9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.
9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.
9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.
9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.
9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.
9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.
8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.
8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.
8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.
8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.
8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.
8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.
8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.
8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.
8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.
8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.
8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.
8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.
8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.
8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.
8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.
8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.
8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.
8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.
8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.
8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!
8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.
8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.
8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.
8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …
7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.
7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.
7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.
7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.
7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.
7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.
7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.
7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.
7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.
7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.
7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.
7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.
7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.
7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.
7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.
7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.
7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.
7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.
7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.
7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.
7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.
7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.
7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.
7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.
7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.
7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.
7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.
6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.
6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.
6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.
6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.
6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.
6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.
6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.
6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.
6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.
6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.
6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.
6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.
6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.
6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.
Boerwar @1095
Yeah, well, like, thaa-a-nks. :/
Hi Boerwar
Did you see on the Vic election site that us cows may be allowed back in the high country?
Us and the bark beetles are unstoppable it seems 😉
confessions
you make me laugh. I must say I am not crazy about wedding receptions. I am always really happy that two people get together to make a life for themselves, but all the silliness of wedding receptions do not impress me 🙂
[“I believe that if it is 44-all then the ALP would acknowledge it has lost the vote and Labor would provide the speaker,” he said.]
[I wonder what would happen then if the speaker subsequently resigned the position?]
If Labor does provide a Speaker to allow the Coalition to govern, it won’t be because Malcolm Mackerras says it’s the morally correct thing to do (a dubious argument anyway). The ALP (as opposed to a single disloyal defector) will choose this option only if it seems more politically advantageous than forcing new elections.
And if the ALP does choose this option, the only reason it would change its mind and have the Speaker resign would be because the calculation of the balance of political advantage appeared to have shifted in favour of forcing new elections, and that’s what would then follow, roughly along the lines of the scenario I described earlier.
I estimate the first to be unlikely and the second to be very unlikely, but neither is impossible.
Victoria
The possibility of a change was very much considered, we had definate instructions about following the caretaker conventions to the letter and removing all cabinet material. At the time it seemed a little extreme in the caution department compared to the 2002/06 elections but was well grounded in the end.
If Labor flukes a 44-44, wouldn’t they be better to act magnanimous and provide a Speaker, let the Libs stuff up and then call an election?
If there is a new election, I’d suspect they will get killed if the 2PP was clearly in the Libs favour.
onfessions
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 12:29 pm | Permalink
victoria:
“Truth be told it was insufferable.”
more you drink , kills off many a insufferable
Re a 2pp does anyone have a reliable source for one?
I put my own together simply adding together all the seat by seat ones on the VEC website (with all the hazards that entails for a randomly incomplete count), and making assumptions for the six non-traditional seats, and got a 2pp of 51.8% for Lib/Nat. That process will make more sense once more counting is complete.
[Dagget
Having worked briefly for the NT govt years ago, I know exactly what you mean. However, would we then get a conservative administration (not in the Libs/Nats sense)?]
The admin is pretty conservative as a whole, especially in core departments. In others it varies depending on the main things dealt with e.g. human services, economic development, social policy, employment.
However, there will certainly be some changes. After 11 years of Govt you get quite a large number of, well political appointments, e.g. ministerial staff getting cushy PS jobs, advisors becoming directors and so forth.
Also, without giving away too much about where I am dept wise, people who have become attracted to the PS in policy roles have been brought it from tradional ALP strongholds and there has been an inability to remain impartial and even consider the alternatives. This has meant to general advice has become a bit self serving.
Where I am, almost everyone has been employed since this Govt came in and only a few remain from labor in 1999.
Should be a result today. I assume they will could all the 3000 pre-polls today which wuold just leave some postals.
[COUNTING of pre-poll votes in the crucial marginal seat of Bentleigh will begin today, rather than tomorrow, in a bid to resolve Victoria’s election deadlock.
Incumbent Labor MP Rob Hudson currently trails Liberal candidate Elizabeth Miller by 213 votes, but with more than 3000 pre-poll votes to be counted – and 38,715 people on the electoral role – the seat could still go either way.
All votes counted to date will be re-checked as well.]
Diogenes –
If they’re thinking long term, I’d say they should do exactly this if they’re lucky enough to end up on 44. The various state labors don’t seem to be very good at thinking beyond ‘win now at all costs’ though.
Psephos (709 at 10.59pm, Saturday),
You replied to my post:
You wrote:
My answer follows.
Your point is a more dramtic version of my point. I said that the “It’s time” factor cannot kick in suddenly at 11 years, rather than 10, and you are saying it can’t kick in at 11 years one month and not at 11 years and three weeks.
We have had long-term governments in this country before: e.g., those of Henry Bolte and Robert Menzies. No “It’s time” factor removed them after three terms. The counter-arguments I will be greeted with are irrelevant to the point I am actually making.
The announcement that the Lberals would not preference the Greens certainly acted in Ted Baillieu’s favour because he was taking a stand, doing something definite, but there is a lot more to the huge loss of votes by Labor than that.
Both sides ran negative campaigns, but Labor’s was personal whereas the Liberals’ was about service failures of the government. I saw the previous Liberal government’s devastation in education first hand, but I don’t care that an estate agency connected with Ted Baillieu sold the land from closed schools 17 years ago, the same agency which is selling the land from closed schools today for the Labor government. Rob Hulls’ attack on Ted Baillieu that he was reaching for a hanky was pathetic. Mr Baillieu came out of it as a decent, friendly person being bullied by a gang of thugs. A lot of Labor power-brokers just cannot get the simple point that the public as a whole is sick to death of stupid political games, abuse, personal attacks, failure to answer questions, etc.
The Labor campaign should have been based on its record of repairing the state over the past 11 years, coupled with future developments. Even the Libs know how successful Labor has been in education. It hardly figured in their attack ads, even though, as I keep saying, secondary schools are far worse staffed today than they were under Lindsay Thompson. Of course, the best staffed primary schools ever, $3 billion in capital expenditure, the restoration of proper subjects like history and geography instead of that SOSE rubbish, the slow rebuilding of some central control (to be undone now) and much more show how well Labor did there. But like the feds, the state government seemed unwilling to stand on its record.
Modern campaigns are pathetic. I would go back to the old days of the policy speech to set the ground and the next four weeks to win the argument, rather than the promise per hour incoherent mess we have now.
I would have approached the election as follows (fill in your own issue);
I would have taken the same approach to health, policing, transport, etc: we were elected to repair the state. This is how bad it was when we started. This is what we have done so far,. This is what we will do next.
But I’m not a faction chief, powerbroker, spin doctor or focus group conductor, so who cares what I think?
Campaigns have to be connected to reality. I am not a post-modernist, so I believe they should also be true, but even political realists would accept that they must have a connection with truth. The Liberal campaign against waste and mismanagement would not have worked if there had been no waste or mismanagement at all. We can all easily point to all the achievements of Labor, as I have done more than most, but we cannot be blind to the failures, MYKI, whatever its eventual smoothness of operation, being one. Then you have the good old “commercial in confidence” and “Cabinet-in-confidence” mantras that governments always call on and that oppositions always attack. Add to that the appalling contempt for Parliament shown when the executive government told Justin Madden’s media advisers to defy a summons from a parliamentary committee. I’m not going to list every failure by the government, but if Labor people don’t recognise their existence – and saying “We were not a perfect government” is not good enough – they will not understand how the voters see them.
The Herald Sun did not help for, despite its editorial endorsement, it ran anti-Labor articles day after day, the worst being yet another opportunity for the speed camera whingers to illustrate their inability to drive a car.
I agree with those who think the Liberals will be bad for Victoria, but I caution against those who are already going over the top. A Baillieu government will not slash and burn as the previous Liberal government did. It will make education worse by undermining the system and re-introducing the competitive market. It will undermine teachers’ conditions – but then teachers should never have agreed to the already bad conditions they currently have. It will undermine the Green Wedges. It will fail to cut electricity prices. Kt will still have long hospital waiting lists.
The saddest thing about the loss is that Labor had not finished repairing the damage it inherited. Education is my field, and I fear that the failure to fix everything has left the system more vulnerable to the Liberals’ foolish ideoillogical damage than it would otherwise have been.
Labor had to lose some day. If it had not been this year, it would have been 2014. Losing this year gives it a chance of winning in 2018, whereas not losing until 2014 would not have given it a chance of winning until 2022. Thus, losing now brings the possibility of the next victory four years closer.
Dagget
From what you say, I believe Brumby is not surprised by the outcome at all. They have the intel, and would have had a fair idea. All this talk from some quarters saying that it is a shock result are talking hogwash. I would also say that around the time of the heatwave last year when our transport system failed and the bushfires, Labor were struggling. It is really surprising they are in with a chance.
The Vic result is already been spun as bad for the Gillard govt.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria-result-makes-gillards-job-tougher-20101128-18byp.html
Dagget
Thanks for that insight. I appreciate it. It explains some of the “govt’s not listening” feeling.
I found that the department bosses had a huge and often detrimental effect on us minions and the way we could a) achieve any work goals and b) contribute anything to policy (I was in a planning dept). The Minister was just a person who kept wanting answers to front the media/parliament with 😆
Diogenes
Unlike youse Greens lot who wont take hard decsions , i’m been prepare to state here on
PB ( asite thats almost unnaminous pro gay marriage) , that i’m opposed on numerous no religous grounds i prev listed
But Greens still miss point Gay Mariage does not rate as a key issue to most Voters whatever its merits or otherwise So whe Greens public 9an you lot here) elevate it as if it is a key urgent yeterday issue then it simply proves Abbots (and Ballieu’s point) that Labor is in a Greens allianse controlled by a Greens outs of key issues touch Agenda…so middle oz voters vote Liberal , and even Federall Polls show th incompetant idiot Abbott/Liberals still at 50/50
(and where’s MRB , MMRT and CC , in a committee twith CC o decidse ain early 2012 , with Greens instead of making a decsion & fightin for it after an assembly
For once our political masters were 100% right in terms of the need to prepare for a possible change. The contast with this ‘shock’ and the 1999 is very apparent.
The 1999 result was a genuine surprise. For 2010, the clearing of the decks started months ago especially with respect to the CIC and incoming Govt briefs and the dept status reports.
In 1999, the preparation was done bit nobody believed any of it would be implimentated.
Zoomster @ 976
[except that the facts don’t support this – can’t verify it, as the VEC site is still down, but my understanding is that in those seats seen as potential Green gains, where the flame wars were hottest. there was actually a swing to Labor]
The ‘swing’ to Labor was a result of the liberal directing preferences to them. Had the preference regime been as 2006 the swings would have reflected the general swing and a number of greens would be in the lower house.
if result is 44/44. If Brumby offers Peter Ryan deputy leader, would the Nats be tempted to join labor in a coalition ? 😉
Can Ron – re Gay marriage, can you walk and chew gum at the same time.
The funny thing is Ron will be here inside 12 months telling us the conscience vote which gets gay marriage up was an ALP masterstroke to neutralise those nasty greens.
Dont think its much of a vote changer in voter land either way.
Most would be ho hum or fair enough re the issue.
Lizzie
What I had noticed was happening was we (as a Govt) were running out of new ideas, it was always the same things being put up. Also, we, as PS people, were in a bit of a comfort zone. What will interest me is how many people leave the PS, especially those with strong ALP sympathies. There are many people around me who openly say ‘i wont be able to handle this if the libs get it’
Strong memories for the few of the Kennet win in 1992 of the razor gang sacking pretty much all the directors, and even the senior policy people if they had a hint of labor in them!.
vera
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 12:31 pm | Permalink
Hi Ron
” Putting the greens last was the winner for Ted
labor should grow a pair and do the same ”
many many orchids of appologies for missing your post Vera ,
had to deel with Greens , otherwise they may actualy think they talk sense & reel life
Chris 1112
Yes, the zen approach is that every loss brings you one election closer to victory, in the same way that every victory brings you one election closer to an eventual loss.
With regards to the 10 year – 11 year thing, I think that this sort of feeling only really kicks in when there is an actual election about to happen. So one year ago a question of “if an election were held today who would you vote for?” is a bit meaningless for lots of people cold-called at home. They know there isn’t an election and most people (unlike us here) don’t care too much about politics between elections.
Pseph – 1005 – If it is 44-44 Labor should supply a speaker and let the Coalition rule (especially as there is a conservative upper house) – the populace would react very badly to being forced back to the polls in January and Labor would do worse now that the “Swing” has been revealed. (like Frankston East supplementary election 1999)
Dagget
Yes, I can understand all that. Contrary to public opinion, PS do care about the papers they write and the outcomes, and who they are working for.
Those of us who watched Kennett (and his Treasurer whatsisname) will never forget the first years of shock. Bit like “Were you there the day Gough was sacked”.
That’s why it always seems incredible that Kennett is “admired” for his “Beyond Blue” stuff. There’s a dissonance there I can’t cope with…
RR
A re-election over Christmas would be like the mother of all by-elections.
Rocket Rocket (1123 at 1.07pm),
I don’t think a belief that a government has been in too long has to kick in at the 10-, 11-, 1-2, 13- or 14-year mark. It comes back to what the government has done in that time, what it has failed to do and what it says to the public about what it has done, what it has failed to do and what it is going to do next. The Whitlam government did come in on “It’s time” after 23 years, and it was next time after only three years.
Gough1
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 1:03 pm | Permalink
“Can Ron – re Gay marriage, can you walk and chew gum at the same time.
The funny thing is Ron will be here inside 12 months telling us the conscience vote which gets gay marriage up was an ALP masterstroke to neutralise those nasty greens.”
Goug1 , I’ve acknowleged I’m pretty well only one on whole site opposed to gay marraige on many non religous grounds so your support for it not a suprise , you just th join 99% here
But i also prev said if labor was to change polisy , i’d still be opposed and keep saying so here , so dont understood your inuendo there
2/ “Dont think its much of a vote changer in voter land either way.”
I said its not a key issue to most voters , and Greens making it so proves to them Abbott and Ballaeu’s chagre Labor is controled by an out of touch non key to Voters issues Green Agenda
I’ve aint mentioned politcal rasons for opposition , but do think it wuld cost alot of (decisive) Labor votes to Libs if anti gay marriage Groups run a campiagn and I expect they would
(try chewing gum upside down and trying to talk at same time sayin against a tide of anti gay marriageGroups it will be alrite
[If Labor flukes a 44-44, wouldn’t they be better to act magnanimous and provide a Speaker, let the Libs stuff up and then call an election?
If there is a new election, I’d suspect they will get killed if the 2PP was clearly in the Libs favour.]
I agree Dio. It would be a good tactical move IMHO.
Brumby has called a news conderence which will be live soon on Sky.
Lizzie
I think one of the problems is some in the PS care a bit too much and start believing the spin put into the PPQs and briefs and start acting like defacto miniserial advisors.
This might shock some here but from a professional point of view a change will be a good thing, it will get rid of the hangers on and renew the policy cycle, it is all about new ideas. That is very hard to do for a Govt after 11 years.
From a zen point of view the 1999 election was one too early, so 3 terms is excellent. The first labor win should have been 2002.
The Libs won’t fix the transport and hospital systems. We know that. At the end of four years this will be very obvious to us all. Labor being a seat or two off government is better placed to win the next election from opposition. It’s no good them forcing an early election in any way. I think they would come off a very poor second best at this stage. By doing so they would just make the following election even harder to win.
Brumby news conference now
[Then we got an average Lib State leader in Ballaeu who publicley puts th Greens last ! , and says ALP and Greens is an alliance and what happens , his 2PP rises and at elction a swags of middle australian based Metrop Seats go to th Liberals
Problem is you Gereens is not liked by reel Aussies in th suburbs , thats th millions of Aussies that you lot call bogans , but who in turn think youse (mostly paid by govt purse as well) is snobby elitist Wangkers not understandin reel aussies concerns
th sooner Labor follows Libs approach as I’ve said prev many times here , and puts Greens last , th better for Labor , for democracy and good responsible polisy based Govt in oz , and thats fedback I’ve had of 000’s of Laborites at booths over last 2 weeks so a few cautous ALP PBers here wishing decororums is no guide]
Ron, sometimes the drivel that you put forward is so silly that it becomes almost impossible to reply to. It is as silly as that from some Green’s supporters who say there is “really no difference” between the Coalition and Labor.
Let’s face it, there were a lot of voters out there who wanted to give Labor a kick for one reason or another. If those voters did so (as they did in the federal election) by giving their primary vote to the Greens then the vote, in almost all seats, came back to Labor in the form of their first preference.
If., however, they administered the “kick” by giving their primary vote to the Liberals then that was it – vote completely lost to Labor and gained by the Coalition.
By de-legitimising The Greens as a location for such a protest vote the sort of strategy you advocate, and the silly tripe you and some others talk about the Greens as “extremists”, “snobby elitist Wangkers” and the like , simply means that those protests go straight to the Libs.
This pretty clearly is what happened in many suburban seats in this election and played a substantial role in Labor losing its majority.
Bentleigh to be decided today by 4.30 apparently.
Nationals say Labor should step aside.
[
Victorian Nationals leader Peter Ryan says the Labor Party can’t win the state election and needs to step aside.
Speaking on Sunday, a day after voters delivered a major swing against Premier John Brumby, Mr Ryan said the coalition would provide a stable government.
“Labor cannot form government,” Mr Ryan told reporters on the steps of state parliament.
“They acknowledge they do not have the numbers to form government.”
He said Mr Brumby needed to accept that voters had turned their backs on him with a clear message.
“I think it has destroyed the legitimacy of this government,” he said.
“It has certainly damaged beyond recovery the authority of John Brumby as the premier of this state.”
]
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/vic-labor-cant-govern-nationals-20101128-18c1b.html
[Bentleigh to be decided today by 4.30 apparently.]
How can that be when, according to the coverage last night, there are still several tens of thousands of postal votes for the Victorian election that have not actually been returned yet?
Unless one party or another has obtained an unassailable majority by that time there would always be the risk of a turnaround.
Lizzie – Alan Stockdale
vera
Yes, I did see that cattle are going to be returned to the high country.
The Coalition are extinction mongers and climate wreckers.
Dagget
I wish you good luck, However it turns out for you 🙂
Rod the bulk of the votes were early pre polls. (i am be incorrect)
m
The Coalition does seem to have serial difficulties with the fairly simple concept of ‘parliamentary majority.’
beemer
Stockdale still much admired in Lib circles. He got himself a job which rewarded his portfolio. Just like many of Howard’s mates.
Apparently, Brumby says the VEC is putting effort into counting everything in Bentleigh today.
[The Libs won’t fix the transport and hospital systems. We know that. At the end of four years this will be very obvious to us all. ]
They will simply run on the “We have to fix 11 years of Labor’s wrecking. It takes more than one term to do that” and will get home again by doing so unless they make some very stupid mistakes, Gary.
RH
Unless I have got it wrong, there is agreement that the Liberals have 44 seats safe and sound. The seat being counted today would, if they win it, bring them up to 45, thereby deciding the issue.
Settling the uncertain seats beyond that would merely decide the size of the majority.
OTOH, if the seat being settled today goes to Labor, then it is back to the long wait.
Ron
We see the world in different ways. You and your fellow travellors see every decision in the prism of the politics of it. This emboldens X, Policy Z will only destroy M, people that dont have this supernatural vision are fools or naive or aiding the enemy.
The funny thing is that this focus group groupthink is wRONg more often than it is right and this has been demonstrated ably this year.
More defending of policy and less ‘smart’ focus froup strategy might have got both Brumby and Gillard back as majority governments.
I, naive as I am, treat issues on their merit and think accordingly. I might modify or change my opinions or strategies if facts change
The question of gay marriage is mostly symbolism now as the government has acted to adress a lot of the substantive institutional prejudices against gay people to the extent that it can.
My personal view is that I wouldn’t care whether the government sanctions my ‘marriage’ or not. Its a bit akin to Homer getting his ‘sane’ stamp from the asylum -whoo -hooo.
If I was gay and in a relationship with someone and wanted to refer to it as being married, I would. I dont think anyone can stop you saying you’re married and it would pi$$ off the fundies no ends.
However the perception of equality is important to feeling you belong and are not second class as is symbolism as was shown by Kyoto ratification and the apology.
I know its hard to believe Ron but your ALP with its highly attuned antenna on the electorate………. could be getting the politics of this wrong….shock, horroor…who would have thunk?
68% of total counted yetserdaay. Expectations are that final number will be 92%.
This means over 25% of legitimate votes still to be counted in Bentleigh.
I am very pleased with this rain. We took a punt and planted another 130 trees and shrubs very, very late in the season. (This was because the floods ripped the originals out of the ground).
This rain should just about get the replacements established for summer.
Now, let’s hope that the rain stops before another flood comes and rips all the newbies out of the ground.
[Unless I have got it wrong, there is agreement that the Liberals have 44 seats safe and sound. The seat being counted today would, if they win it, bring them up to 45, thereby deciding the issue.
Settling the uncertain seats beyond that would merely decide the size of the majority.
OTOH, if the seat being settled today goes to Labor, then it is back to the long wait.]
Its Bentleigh I was specifically talking about, BW. Even if all the counting of currently available votes is completed by the end of today there will still presumably be a substantial bunch of Bentleigh postals (hundreds, one would think) amongst the 30 to 40,000 that have not actually arrived yet. In a very close finish these might be quite capable of turning the result one way or another. If Labor got up by 50 votes in Bentleigh, for example, at the end of today’s count would they feel secure in claiming a “hung” parliament?
The continued count MAY make the result clear, but we can be far from certain at this point in time that it will.
RH
I think we agree. If the Libs get ahead by more than the total possible residual uncounteds, then there would be certainty. Other than that, it is back to the waiting game.
What was the Brumby press about?