12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.
11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.
11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.
11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.
11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.
11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.
10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.
10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.
10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.
10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).
10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.
10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.
10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.
10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.
10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.
10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.
9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:
On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.
9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.
9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.
9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.
9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.
9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.
9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.
9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.
9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.
8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.
8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.
8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.
8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.
8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.
8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.
8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.
8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.
8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.
8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.
8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.
8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.
8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.
8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.
8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.
8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.
8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.
8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.
8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.
8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!
8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.
8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.
8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.
8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …
7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.
7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.
7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.
7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.
7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.
7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.
7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.
7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.
7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.
7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.
7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.
7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.
7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.
7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.
7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.
7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.
7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.
7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.
7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.
7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.
7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.
7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.
7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.
7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.
7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.
7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.
7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.
6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.
6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.
6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.
6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.
6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.
6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.
6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.
6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.
6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.
6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.
6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.
6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.
6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.
6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.
madcyril
Good grief, I am agreeing with Bolta. Unless he read some of my early posts during the week.
I have been saying that if Vic was still in the grip of the drought, Brumby would have romped home. Now everyone thinks the Desal is a waste of money, even though it was the coalition who were screaming for it in years gone by.
madcyril
sorry what I meant was unless Bolta read some of my early posts and agreed with me 😉
If Vic Labor is gone then it will merely be another in a long line of governments to go down because of issues relating to AGW.
Food security and food price inflation alone are likely to knock quite a few governments around in the next few years.
BTW, get ready for some very expensive cherries.
vic, yes I seem to remember you saying as much. I think Bolta should acknowledge your insightful comments 😉
[Good grief, I am agreeing with Bolta]
Yes, he almost seemed sensible for a while there. But his contempt showed through after a while.
I thought Cassidy was strangely muted. That’s the second week he’s seemed a little off-key to me.
And much earlier someone made a comment that Hendo seemd out of his depth. I thought his interviews just proved he’s only a newsreader.
victoria:
Did you watch the count?
[Rod,
Andrew Bolt makes a similar point this morning!]
Good grief! Don’t let any of my friends know! 😉
madcyril
🙂
confessions
I had to step out for a while last night. I saw the early part, when Antony Green said coalition was set for victory. I came back later and was shocked to see that it may well end in a hung parliament. Very strange night for me. 🙂
confessions
anyhow how was the wedding reception?
[That’s right – these debt averse, service averse voters deserve the razor gangs they keep seeming to voter for !]
Err, might this not be a bit tough on those of us who didn’t vote for the bastards! Yes, the “raised earth” policy of the Ruskies during the retreats to Moscow (on a couple of occasions) might have had some benefits in the long run, but the collateral damage for the innocent people of the regions concerned was more than a bit of an inconvenience!
Boerwar
cherries are already quite pricey. What figures are you talking about $20 plus per kg?
Diogenes
you moron These is my words on MORNING of election
Ron
Posted Saturday, November 27, 2010 at 8:15 am | Permalink
‘off to Booths for th Day
Bailleau & Abbots Primary Vote and KEY 2 PP has incr , due to high Greens Primarys
Brumby and Gillard’s Primary Vote and KEY 2 PP has dropped due to Greens high Primarys
Biggest Vic election decsion was Bailleau putting Greens last , and his 2 2PP has gained
Fed and State poll evidence shows middle oz Voters regard Greens as toxic & swing to Lib”
I’d prev specifically nominated (ACCURATELY) Forest Hills , Burtwood , Mitcham , Gembrooks , Mt Waverley , Frankston and Mordalloc
You cannt handle th unluv felt by reel Aussies in suburbs for your Greens , but above 7 suburbs show it
Ron
Don’t you understand what a written agreement means?
BTW Gay marriage is now the official position of the SA ALP.
victoria
Not sure. Some Victorian crops and some of the crops around Young have received a hammering from the rain.
I think if there is a hung parliament that Labor should let Libs govern in minority. We would get smashed otherwise, as the surge came in the last 48hours, onward it will continue. When services don’t improve and prices go up and people realise there is nothing any gov can do we may be a chance to turn the tide. But we need some things to go our way….. worsening economic conditions, climate changes, and some general suffering all round.
Dio @ 1064
So, who are they marrying?
Well work will be interesting tomorrow, department secs have a meeting at first thing, then our leaders (Division heads) have one at 9.30 and then us humble funtionaries a little later.
Of course this was set up on friday to deal with incoming govt issues and an expected clear result, but given now we will remain in caretaker for at least 10 days (waiting for postals) and possibly much longer the business of Government will go on as before.
Dagget @ 1068
Without the interference of Ministers youse guys might even get a bit more effectiveness and efficiency going?
BW
[Dio @ 1064
So, who are they marrying?]
Don Dunstan’s ghost
I can’t find a 2PP. Mackerras said the Libs clearly won it but I can’t confirm that.
Dagget
Sir Humphrey Appleby would be proud 😆
I firmly believe that Govt is far more effective without politicians getting in the way.
If there are good odds on a Pom victory I would be taking them, I think.
I blame Movemberitis.
Dagget
Having worked briefly for the NT govt years ago, I know exactly what you mean. However, would we then get a conservative administration (not in the Libs/Nats sense)?
iogenes
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 12:01 pm | Permalink
“Ron
Don’t you understand what a written agreement means?
BTW Gay marriage is now the official position of the SA ALP.”
Labor decides its own polisy petal , and it is anti gay marriage soall your fluff bravado must annpy you what i said is th case , and that Julia has again said since electon she opposes gay marriage
(BTW , is this your patthetic redc herring to get away fom your frustrate that your Green won no lower house seats !! , eat your hart out
Dagget
you mentioned something last night about getting all the housekeeping in order. Does this suggest that perhaps govt was ready for baton change?
Boerwar
you mentioned AGW. This is a piece by David Cameron PM of UK re topic. You may find interesting.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/28/david-cameron-climate-change-cancun
Boerwar
A shame about crops being damaged due to rain. Not enough rain, too much rain. Sigh!
diog
That photo almost made me lose my lunch 😯
Then i tuned into Skynews and saw Big Ted in his big budgiesmugglers going for a morning dip… and that finished me off! 😆
Ron
The momentum is unstoppable. Labor will soon be the party of gay marriage.
Nats leader having a press conference in about 10 minutes
vera
was it you that asked about Ted and his budgie smugglers last night? My response to whoever asked was that nothing seen recently in this dept, and yet this morning we were again exposed!
vera
There are some really nice ones of Gillard with Bob Brown as well. You can feel the love. :kiss:
Anyone know what the Vic Coalition’s attitude to climate change is?
NSW Labor President Bernie Riordan killed off Iemma over electricity privatisation, but now he won’t even ensure his union supports Labor candidates at the election:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sunday-telegraph/alp-boss-betrays-kristina-keneally/story-e6frewt9-1225962022294
Riordan and John Robertson are the real wreckers of NSW Labor.
[Election expert Malcolm Mackerras tonight said the Coalition was likely to govern in the event of a hung parliament, as the party was the moral victor in a “landslide” election result.]
MM stops being “expert” when his pendulum became MSM.
[anyhow how was the wedding reception?]
Okay-ish. The bride and groom enjoyed themselves though so that’s the main thing.
[The momentum is unstoppable. Labor will soon be the party of gay marriage.]
All Gillard has to do is allow Labor MPs a conscience vote on amending the Marriage Act. If she does that it will pass parliament easily. And if there is a debate in the parliament, there will be some Liberal floor crossers too, such as Malcolm Turnbull.
confessions
sounds like you are being polite 😉
Diog
You are one evil sick puppy 😆
Skynews says counting will resume in Bentleigh this afternoon and through the night
victoria:
Truth be told it was insufferable. I wished I was at home watching the Vic election!
lizzie
For what it is worth:
http://www.stateelection.net.au/party-ratings/
The reckon the election and premier will be decided by tonight
Rod Hagen
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 8:22 am | Permalink
“Accordingly, instead of voting Greens as a protest many have simply lodged their protest directly with the Liberals, thereby substantially reducing the expected size of the Green vote, and hence the quantum of prefs available to Labor.”
Greens slippery spin BS
Facts is I provided Poll evidence of Julia vs Abbott rite now of 2PP voting , and there’s no election on rite now …plus I supplied my estim on morning of Vic poll result of th ditto reason that swing and midle oz voters in subrubs regards your Greens Party as whacco’s only intersted in only elitist non vip agenda’s and Greens hav a nort interset in working peoples priority agenda’s (being of keeping a job , of interst rates , of growht , of living costs , and of a thingo called econamics that you Greens lot know nort about
an 11 billion black whole & shallow polisy based incompetant Tony Abbott says a ‘Labor/Greens allianse’ with th ALP controlled by a mad out of touchs Green’s agenda , and hey he Abbott is 50/50 on Fed Polls rite now still
Then we got an average Lib State leader in Ballaeu who publicley puts th Greens last ! , and says ALP and Greens is an alliance and what happens , his 2PP rises and at elction a swags of middle australian based Metrop Seats go to th Liberals
Problem is you Gereens is not liked by reel Aussies in th suburbs , thats th millions of Aussies that you lot call bogans , but who in turn think youse (mostly paid by govt purse as well) is snobby elitist Wangkers not understandin reel aussies concerns
th sooner Labor follows Libs approach as I’ve said prev many times here , and puts Greens last , th better for Labor , for democracy and good responsible polisy based Govt in oz , and thats fedback I’ve had of 000’s of Laborites at booths over last 2 weeks so a few cautous ALP PBers here wishing decororums is no guide
vera
Nice to see you are back and in good form.
Hi Ron
Putting the greens last was the winner for Ted
labor should grow a pair and do the same
Right on, Ron.
Extinction mongers and climate wreckers rule.