Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll

Roy Morgan hasn’t let itself be put off by the flak it copped with last week’s small-sample poll results from the four inner-city Labor-versus-Greens contests, repeating the exercise with only a slightly larger sample of 327 respondents. Taken together they show Labor leading the Greens 53-47, which is seven points better for Labor than last week’s poll. All told this points to a 3 per cent swing to the Greens compared with 2006, which if uniform would just tip Labor out in Melbourne, but leave them safe in Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote. This is indeed borne out by the seat-by-seat breakdowns, which have it at 50-50 in Melbourne, 57-43 in Richmond, 52-48 in Brunswick and 52.5-47.5 in Northcote. The margin of error on the combined result is approaching 5.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Now Morgan offers a spiffy video display of “worm”-style Reactor responses to various election ads. It finds Coalition voters were far more positive about their own side’s advertising than were Labor’s, but that Labor appeared to offer both the most (attacking Liberal spending plans) and least (the famous Baillieu Knight Frank ad) effective attack ads. Labor also did pretty well among independents and Greens with a humanised John Brumby’s fireside chat on the economy. Labor’s “meerkat” and the Liberals’ “are we there yet” attack ads failed to impress Greens and independents in roughly equal measure, but the Liberals did better with their “mouldy fruit” ad. The Greens ad, once it began laying on the hard sell, found Labor voters responding barely less positively than to ads from their own side, while Coalition and independent voters headed south.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

403 comments on “Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll”

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  4. victoria,

    I always find that a delicious result given Diogs relentlessly similar abusive posts against Rann. The smear and sleaze oozed from every corpuscle of his posts.

  7. Some find it a difficult decision to decide who to put last on the voting paper.
    It really is very simple.
    Just always put the Greens last, and you know you are doing the right and best thing for yr country and mankind

  9. Victoria

    about a dozen posters predict SA Labor winning by a majority of 1 or a few seats (th latter group were rite , SA Labor is in majority

    I also thought that , but in list of predictors , only diogenous predicted a tie I couldn’t afford an amatiur diog fluking th rite result all alone , so I plumped for that as well

    I need not hav worried , diog is always wRONg

    (yes that abuse at Rann espec false Rann sex stuff that Dio and othrs re-posted from Tabloids did not prevent Rann winning

  11. Victoria

    You’ve got every rite to be concerned s its a 4th term Govt and they’re hard to win

    Seriously , fact that Balleua dis-associted from th Greens will help him n S/east Seats like mitcham , FH , mt waverly , burwood and out to Gembrooks cause there voters is not into Greens popcorn & its a turn off , but its time feding into reel world working peoples issues of trains and law & order cn bite after a long govt in office

    to be long Sat nite , expect a reduced majority , and into a 4th term thats pretty good tho Labor’s record deserves an incr majority

  19. For those interested in the issue of protecting Victoria’s native forests from logging and wood chipping:

    The Wilderness Society has produced a summary of where the major parties stand.

    http://www.wilderness.org.au/regions/victoria/everything-you-need-to-know-victoria2019s-forests-and-the-state-election

    Further information is available in a report by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR), ‘Opportunities, issues and implications for a transition of the Victorian wood products industry from native forest into plantations’. This report outlines the opportunities for the native forest industry to shift into Victoria’s extensive plantation estate, starting immediately.

    http://www.wilderness.org.au/articles/new-study-shows-way-out-of-native-forests-for-victorian-timber-industry

  21. If Yan Yean falls and I see no reason for it too fall but if it does then I would image that we will be seeing a repeat of the SA election where big swings happened in seats with big margins whilst the marginals will generally be held.

    This goes well for the ALP hanging on with about 46-48 seats.

  23. Hi PBers. Hope you’re not killing eachother too much. I haven’t really been following the Vic election much, so my very lightly informed and apathetic prediction for Saturday’s poll is Labor to win, with 49 seats.

    You may continue calling each other hacks and extremists now.

  24. GG – If we use the SA election as a prior example of what happens when the Govenrment is building a Train line then you are correct.

    In the SA election there were two marginals that were expected to fall to the Liberals but both swang to the ALP and the reason why was the various infrastructure projects in those seats.

  29. GG,
    In case you want to be better informed about the issue of logging of native forests in water catchments 😉

    [Half the Local Government councils across metropolitan Melbourne have now taken a stand against continued logging of biodiverse native forests in the city’s water supply catchments. This logging is reducing water supply to Melbourne.

    15 councils representing almost 1.7 million people , have passed resolutions calling on the Victorian State Government to ban logging in the Melbourne catchments.

    These councils are Yarra Ranges, Bayside City, Moreland City, City of Port Phillip, Whitehorse City, Knox City, Yarra City, City of Kingston, Melbourne City , Maroondah City, City of Boroondara, Nillumbik Shire, Frankston City , City of Maribyrnong and City of Moonee Valley.

    On Friday 17 October member councils of the Municipal Association of Victoria (MAV) passed a ‘no logging in Melbourne’s catchments’ motion.]
    http://melbournecatchments.org/

  32. Glen, I reckon it’s a possibility too IMHO. There are so many electorate-specific issues that have been simmering away and I think voters want to vent their angst.

    FWIW anecdotally (not much, I know), during my pre-poll shifts in Forest Hill I have observed voters refusing the Labor HTV but taking the Liberals and Greens HTVs.

  33. pegasus,

    No logging in Forest Hill these days?

    But, I’m sure the local “rubbidy” has a historical pictures of them before the Greens advocates moved in.

    “Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.
    They paved Forest Hill.
    Pegasus looks for a parking lot”.

  36. I think Glen is correct but the problem for the Liberals is where will it occur.

    I expect the Greens will see a large increase close, similar to the 6% increase they achieved in the federal election and I think we will see big swings in safe seats.

    The Age might be correct in saying this result might be similar to the 99 result except I am of the view that the Liberals have not done the ground work that we saw Brack and his team do in the lead up therefore a large slight of that swing will flow to the Greens and this will soften the swing against the Government.

  38. victoria,

    I’m pretty confident that Labor will do well. But, Statewide I don’t think any of the polls have been decisive or helpful.

    However, there seems to be a drift back to the Government atm.

    You’re out at Diamond Creek? How’s Danielle travelling

  39. GG,

    I don’t live in the suburb of Forest Hill. I volunteer at one of the local indigenous plant nurseries and am active in revegetating local bushland reserves.

  41. Vex news has reported the phoenix like return of the DLP to Australian politics, while other media, including many on pollbludgers do their best to exclude the DLP from any publicity or discussion on this election and possible seats won.
    The DLP have an excellent chance of winning 2 seats, and possibly 3/4 in the Upper House.

    VEXNEWS 2010© | BLASTING FROM THE PAST: Feisty DLP presents with 67 candidates in Victorian poll
    http://www.vexnews.com

  45. GG

    yes, very safe State Labor seat. Can’t see it changing too much. Federally, the seat is even safer in the hands of Harry Jenkins.

  46. Pegasus,

    You seem to want every one to appreciate your worthiness to exist.

    You’ve bleated on for months that you live in Forest Hill.

  50. madcyril

    that is exactly my position. I think Labor are going to win with a narrow majority. Then I start thinking that what happened to Kennett in 99 will happen to Brumby on Saturday.

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