JWS Research: Victorian Labor to lose seven to 10 seats

The Herald-Sun reports an automated phone poll by JWS Research, such as the one it conducted a week before the federal election, shows the Liberals “on track to win Mount Waverley, Forest Hill, Mitcham, South Barwon, Mordialloc and Burwood” and the Greens “likely to gain Brunswick”. The Labor-versus-Greens contests of Melbourne and Richmond and the Labor-versus Liberal contest of Prahran too close to call. On the worst of these scenarios for Labor they would hold a bare majority of 45 seats out of 88; on the best, that would go up to 48. I will review how well the JWS Research federal poll performed when I get time.

UPDATE: Full results from JWS Research:

ALP 2PP
Sample 2006 POLL
Brunswick (vs GRN) 300 54.6 47
Richmond (vs GRN) 285 53.6 51
Melbourne (vs GRN) 222 52 49
Ballarat East 345 56.7 54
Ballarat West 339 56.6 59
Bentleigh 351 56.4 57
Bendigo East 420 55.4 54
Ripon 288 54.4 53
Burwood 373 53.8 43
Prahran 269 53.6 50
Mordialloc 325 53.6 42
Frankston 324 53.3 54
South Barwon 384 52.3 44
Mitcham 376 52 48
Forest Hill 357 50.8 47
Gembrook 349 50.7 52
Mt Waverley 372 50.4 44
Ferntree Gully 283 49.9 36
Kilsyth 318 49.6 47
Hastings 296 49.0 42
Narracan 350 47.3 40
Bayswater 324 47.1 44
Box Hill 380 44.7 40
Gippsland East (IND vs NAT) 580 58.5 (IND) 43 (IND)

UPDATE 2: From Roy Morgan: “Labor surge in Inner City Melbourne Means ALP Set to Retain Four Inner City Seats. Full results available tomorrow from a special telephone Morgan Poll of the key inner Melbourne Seats of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote & Richmond.”

UPDATE 3: John Scales of JWS Research writes:

To confirm/explain a couple of questions for your readers:

• Yes, we do weight by age and gender according to ABS stats, they are the first questions asked after the introduction and eligibility question.

• We only accept data for respondents who have completed the entire survey, drop outs are not included.

• We did include mobiles where that was the only number available at the address.

• We also surveyed DNCR registered numbers and when I have time I would like to publish an analysis of the results and profiles for landlines v mobiles and DNCR v not.

• We surveyed in all 88 seats State-wide and final sample in each seat was targeted weighted to the same proportion, so boost sample seats contribute the same proportionately as non boost seats to the overall State-wide results.

• It’s ironic that people still complain about low sample sizes where I have surveyed 300+ in 24 seats on top of a State-wide representative poll – this is exponentially more useful and reliable than relying on low sample, grouped seat swings in other published polls. We funded this poll ourselves and yes, it gives us publicity but the information is out there for the public interest too so I believe that’s a fair trade. If people would like to make financial contribution, I would be happy to survey larger samples on a seat by seat basis. I also believe there are other Labor seats in play further up the pendulum, such as Seymour, Carrum, Bendigo West, Bellarine, Macedon and Geelong, but without financial support, there are limits to what I can do.

• Let’s also be very clear that this poll, just like my poll the weekend before the Federal election, is not a prediction. It is a poll of voting intention at the time – people are asked how they would vote if the election were held ‘today’ – and I will no more claim “I was right” if Saturday’s results are the same as this poll than I will accept out of hand criticism of this poll or the Federal poll if it is different to Saturday’s result. In the Federal election, the numbers changed in the last week and I would expect the same to happen here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

116 comments on “JWS Research: Victorian Labor to lose seven to 10 seats”

  1. GG 82

    I prefer to see you as the blind idiot, kind of like the German people in ’45 still thinking Germany will win the great wall and Hitler is the Messiah

  2. madcyril

    That is good news – ABC newsradio has always covered State Elections since its inception, so ABC 24 should.

    Antony Green does have a sense of humor – loved this tweet
    [#vicvotes Have Sex Party preferences been driven by a porn to rule mentality? 11:52 AM Nov 19th via web ]

    I remember at one Federal election he was discussing the candidates in one of the Tasmanian seats, and he said something like “And (so and so candidate) is a comedian, apparently the only professional comedy act in Tasmania, that is if you exclude the Tasmanian Upper House”

  3. I seem to have upset the extreme left and extreme right in equal proportions.

    It doesn’t get better than that.

    Some days are diamonds!

  4. John Scales of JWS Research writes:

    To confirm/explain a couple of questions for your readers:

    • Yes, we do weight by age and gender according to ABS stats, they are the first questions asked after the introduction and eligibility question.

    • We only accept data for respondents who have completed the entire survey, drop outs are not included.

    • We did include mobiles where that was the only number available at the address.

    • We also surveyed DNCR registered numbers and when I have time I would like to publish an analysis of the results and profiles for landlines v mobiles and DNCR v not.

    • We surveyed in all 88 seats State-wide and final sample in each seat was targeted weighted to the same proportion, so boost sample seats contribute the same proportionately as non boost seats to the overall State-wide results.

    • It’s ironic that people still complain about low sample sizes where I have surveyed 300+ in 24 seats on top of a State-wide representative poll – this is exponentially more useful and reliable than relying on low sample, grouped seat swings in other published polls. We funded this poll ourselves and yes, it gives us publicity but the information is out there for the public interest too so I believe that’s a fair trade. If people would like to make financial contribution, I would be happy to survey larger samples on a seat by seat basis. I also believe there are other Labor seats in play further up the pendulum, such as Seymour, Carrum, Bendigo West, Bellarine, Macedon and Geelong, but without financial support, there are limits to what I can do.

    • Let’s also be very clear that this poll, just like my poll the weekend before the Federal election, is not a prediction. It is a poll of voting intention at the time – people are asked how they would vote if the election were held ‘today’ – and I will no more claim “I was right” if Saturday’s results are the same as this poll than I will accept out of hand criticism of this poll or the Federal poll if it is different to Saturday’s result. In the Federal election, the numbers changed in the last week and I would expect the same to happen here.

  5. Roy Morgan has their poll out for what it’s worth. Sample of 327

    [
    A late surge to the ALP over the past week has seen the ALP (53%, up 7% since November 16, 2010) regain a strong Two-Party preferred lead over the Greens (47%, down 7%) in the crucial Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote and Richmond.

    Extensive campaigning by the ALP in the four seats over the past week including letter-box drops and personally addressed mail. In Richmond personally addressed mail was sent to every elector last week from prominent QC Julian Burnside, arriving just after last week’s Morgan Poll, and urging a vote for ALP incumbent Richard Wynne. This appears to have helped in significantly improving the ALP vote in Richmond: ALP (50.5%, up 25% – a very significant increase despite the small sample sizes) on primary vote.

    ]

    [
    This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights (Monday & Tuesday November 22/23, 2010) in the 4 inner Melbourne seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick, Northcote) with a cross section of 327 electors; a low 2.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
    ]
    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4606/

  6. Coalition confirm they are all bluster and hypocrisy when it comes to Speed camera numbers.

    [
    THE Coalition wouldn’t cut speed cameras numbers despite accepting most people think they’re revenue raisers.

    Speaking in an exclusive heraldsun.com.au debate recorded live today for the Lunchtime Q&A series, Mr Ryan said the Coalition would instead seek to create “greater transparency” on their use.

    While admitting many Victorians saw them as revenue raisers, and although the Coalition has previously attacked the proliferation of speed cameras, Mr Ryan said the policy was to ensure they were used responsibly.

    But asked if he would cut the numbers, he said: “I think the cameras have a useful purpose in making sure that we contribute to cutting and controlling the road toll, but we have to use them fairly”.
    ]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/john-brumbys-blockade-on-faulty-speed-cameras/story-fn5kmqy2-1225959681432

  7. [I’m what you call a hard Centre.]

    Which has always been a nice euphemism for the nutty one in the chocky box.

    GRNs looking good in Melb and Brunswick, I expect them to take both, with a fair chance of Richmond.

    Main game is BOP in the upper house, of course – so like many Greens, Ill be HTVing in a totally unwinnable lower house seat.

  8. For what those two morgan polls are worth, you split the difference between them and those four seats are sitting at 50:50.

    Ca’rn you Greenies!

  9. madcyril 105

    At least this time in their table at the bottom left they showed what the margins of error are for samples down to 100 (normally they only show it for 500, 1000) – but they could have gone all the way down to 80 (11.8% margin of error)

  10. lefty e,

    lol

    However, come Saturday I’m sure the marshmellow Greens will be impaled on a stick and barbecued till they are a drippy, non descript blanc mange.

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