JWS Research: Victorian Labor to lose seven to 10 seats

The Herald-Sun reports an automated phone poll by JWS Research, such as the one it conducted a week before the federal election, shows the Liberals “on track to win Mount Waverley, Forest Hill, Mitcham, South Barwon, Mordialloc and Burwood” and the Greens “likely to gain Brunswick”. The Labor-versus-Greens contests of Melbourne and Richmond and the Labor-versus Liberal contest of Prahran too close to call. On the worst of these scenarios for Labor they would hold a bare majority of 45 seats out of 88; on the best, that would go up to 48. I will review how well the JWS Research federal poll performed when I get time.

UPDATE: Full results from JWS Research:

ALP 2PP
Sample 2006 POLL
Brunswick (vs GRN) 300 54.6 47
Richmond (vs GRN) 285 53.6 51
Melbourne (vs GRN) 222 52 49
Ballarat East 345 56.7 54
Ballarat West 339 56.6 59
Bentleigh 351 56.4 57
Bendigo East 420 55.4 54
Ripon 288 54.4 53
Burwood 373 53.8 43
Prahran 269 53.6 50
Mordialloc 325 53.6 42
Frankston 324 53.3 54
South Barwon 384 52.3 44
Mitcham 376 52 48
Forest Hill 357 50.8 47
Gembrook 349 50.7 52
Mt Waverley 372 50.4 44
Ferntree Gully 283 49.9 36
Kilsyth 318 49.6 47
Hastings 296 49.0 42
Narracan 350 47.3 40
Bayswater 324 47.1 44
Box Hill 380 44.7 40
Gippsland East (IND vs NAT) 580 58.5 (IND) 43 (IND)

UPDATE 2: From Roy Morgan: “Labor surge in Inner City Melbourne Means ALP Set to Retain Four Inner City Seats. Full results available tomorrow from a special telephone Morgan Poll of the key inner Melbourne Seats of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote & Richmond.”

UPDATE 3: John Scales of JWS Research writes:

To confirm/explain a couple of questions for your readers:

• Yes, we do weight by age and gender according to ABS stats, they are the first questions asked after the introduction and eligibility question.

• We only accept data for respondents who have completed the entire survey, drop outs are not included.

• We did include mobiles where that was the only number available at the address.

• We also surveyed DNCR registered numbers and when I have time I would like to publish an analysis of the results and profiles for landlines v mobiles and DNCR v not.

• We surveyed in all 88 seats State-wide and final sample in each seat was targeted weighted to the same proportion, so boost sample seats contribute the same proportionately as non boost seats to the overall State-wide results.

• It’s ironic that people still complain about low sample sizes where I have surveyed 300+ in 24 seats on top of a State-wide representative poll – this is exponentially more useful and reliable than relying on low sample, grouped seat swings in other published polls. We funded this poll ourselves and yes, it gives us publicity but the information is out there for the public interest too so I believe that’s a fair trade. If people would like to make financial contribution, I would be happy to survey larger samples on a seat by seat basis. I also believe there are other Labor seats in play further up the pendulum, such as Seymour, Carrum, Bendigo West, Bellarine, Macedon and Geelong, but without financial support, there are limits to what I can do.

• Let’s also be very clear that this poll, just like my poll the weekend before the Federal election, is not a prediction. It is a poll of voting intention at the time – people are asked how they would vote if the election were held ‘today’ – and I will no more claim “I was right” if Saturday’s results are the same as this poll than I will accept out of hand criticism of this poll or the Federal poll if it is different to Saturday’s result. In the Federal election, the numbers changed in the last week and I would expect the same to happen here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

116 comments on “JWS Research: Victorian Labor to lose seven to 10 seats”

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  4. No, it just meant “likely” – although the effect was the same. I’ve reworded it a little. Note Morgan’s plug of a phone poll tomorrow which will apparently show Labor to hold all four inner-city seats from the Greens (due caution advised – tiny samples again, no doubt).

  8. Glen

    I would add Richmond into your list as well. I think that there are more wild cards in play Richmond that may deliver it to the Greens rather than what may happen in Melbourne.

    If the libs should come 4th in Brunswick Phil Cleary might get up as well.

  9. Interesting that Yan Yean and Seymour were not polled as they would seem both to be in play.

    One observation as a voter in Mitcham is that the ALP have spent an absolute fortune on direct mail – it has been coming every 2nd or 3rd day – much more than we had in the federal election. And much more than the Libs. However, the Lib candidate has been much more grass roots with street corner meetings several times now – not sure how well attended.

  10. Does anybody know where on the VEC website they show the number of enrolled voters per electorate? I have looked for it and cannot find it.

  11. Fran

    you picked th smaller of 2 Greens strange pref deels favoring a candidate over Labor
    How do you justify this guy waranting Greens pref over Labor

    Essendon Seat Greens pref in front of Labor ,
    ‘Greens 2nd pref Paul Giuliano, who on his campaign website slams the idea of a carbon tax as “not the solution” to climate change,

    ‘Giuliano and Iser are listed number 2 on each other’s cards, lodged with the Victorian Electoral Commission on Friday.’

    “His website contains a prominent link to a Right to Life website, featuring pictures of a newborn baby with the words “kill her now it’s murder, kill her before birth it’s ‘abortion’” at the top of the page. Her website contains a slate of OFFICIAL Greens policies that badly chafe with Giuliano’s stance.”

    and there is more on this 2nd Greens pref guy over Labor

    “Last year, Giuliano, in his former role as Moonee Valley mayor, hit the national headlines after he forwarded an email to his entire address book imploring Muslims to “speak English”. He later explained away the controversy by saying the email was only meant for his fellow councillors”

    so he’s anti CC , anti over zealotey anti aborton , and racist

    state wide Greens toping it off , Greens tried to do a pref deel with Liberalsd to incr chanses of a Lib Govt , just for Greens to pinch 4 Labor seats

  12. blackburnpseph

    Agree with you on Richmond being added to the watch list. I predict it may fall if Labor’s vote crashes there.

    Watch List Seats…

    Melbourne
    Richmond
    Brunswick
    Prahran

    I hope Antony and Kerry control proceedings on the ABC this Saturday night 🙂

  13. “UPDATE..from a special telephone Morgan Poll of the key inner Melbourne Seats..”
    dont know who takes his small samples polls serious

  14. [
    I hope Antony and Kerry control proceedings on the ABC this Saturday night
    ]

    I assume it will be Kerry’s last election coverage if he does. I wonder if elections will still be part of his part time duties?

  15. Glen

    In Richmond, I get the feeling that McFeely’s voters might not follow the card and direct to the Greens. Stephen Jolly may also get a reasonable vote (I presume he is directing to the Greens?)

    I am inclined to think that Brownyn Pike is more secure in Melbourne.

  16. Channel Nine news once again on the positive side for Labor. It even featured unflattering footage of Baillieu sweating at a news conference with the reporter saying Baillieu’s “feeling the heat”. The coverage of Baillieu focused on more allegations from Rob Hulls regarding Teds’ real estate dealings in the 90’s.

  19. [JWS Research results for all 24 seats added to post.]

    Did they provide the primary figures too? Be interesting to see where the shifts have actually gone to since the last election in some of those seats.

  20. I guess us Tories will have to watch the ABC for comfort what has gone wrong with the world that Channel 9 no longer is pro-Liberal lol!

  21. [I guess us Tories will have to watch the ABC for comfort what has gone wrong with the world that Channel 9 no longer is pro-Liberal lol!]

    I’m sure if they give the gig to the Victorian “Stateline” crew, or the News24 mob, then you will be more than happy with the ABC coverage, Glen, even if they can’t quite manage , despite their best efforts, to get your boy up.

  22. [
    I guess us Tories will have to watch the ABC for comfort what has gone wrong with the world that Channel 9 no longer is pro-Liberal lol!
    ]

    The Age bashing Labor. Channel Nine and the Herald Sun pro Labor. What is going on!

  24. The JWS Fed poll showed

    [Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.]

  25. according to an old PB story from the federal election, the JWS ‘mega-poll’ got 12 of 31 electorates incorrect…not terribly accurate!

    in Victoria it suggested Libs would lose Dunkley but gain Corangamite…plus lose McEwen and Latrobe…so 2 out of 4 in Victoria.

  26. Helluva swing against Craig Ingram in Gippsland East. He might be getting dumped as hard as Russell Savage was last time, if that’s true.

  29. [The Age bashing Labor. Channel Nine and the Herald Sun pro Labor. What is going on!]

    My thoughts exactly!

    [A debate between the Greens Greg Barber and the Nationals Peter Walsh hosted by the Herald Sun]

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    I wonder if Victoria will become the next State to merge the Right together ala LNP after the election? Surely they can agree on more things than the QLD Libs and Nats did???

  30. Glen

    There is no need to merge the Vic Libs and Nats – the Qld merger was largely driven by optional preferential voting and the difficulties of breaking through in SEQ.

    I am sure they both agree that the coalition agreement is just dandy

  31. [
    I wonder if Victoria will become the next State to merge the Right together ala LNP after the election? Surely they can agree on more things than the QLD Libs and Nats did???
    ]

    With Peter Ryan to take over as leader?

  32. Andrew and Zoom if you are there, I gather that we agree that it is good for federal labor if NSW labor get flogged next March.

    Well, I won’t mind seeing Vic Labor lose as well. There is a small but real percentage of people who specifically vote for a different party from state to federal.

    If the Libs win in Vic, that may slightly increase the vote for Fed Labor which could decide the difference between victory and defeat.

    Besides, there is practically no difference between the two major parties at state level. Well not in NSW anyway!

  34. Interesting.

    I generally agree with most of those except I think Brunswick will be closer and Mordialloc sticks out does anyone have any reason for this.

    The other Frankston train line seats like Frankston and Bentleigh show movement towards the ALP.

    I would predict that if Mordialloc is swinging that hard then Carrum a smiliar seat might be worth watching.

  38. “Besides, there is practically no difference between the two major parties at state level. Well not in NSW anyway!”

    Yes, there is – one is so incompetent it is criminal … and the other … we don’t know yet … but if they are half as bad they will be a lot better!!

    Centre, Labor losing in Vic is pretty remote.

  40. [There is a small but real percentage of people who specifically vote for a different party from state to federal.

    If the Libs win in Vic, that may slightly increase the vote for Fed Labor which could decide the difference between victory and defeat.
    ]

    Mmm, I doubt that it is anything like as large a percentage as that of those who vote the same way in both, Centre, unless there are powerful reasons otherwise. If I was a betting person, I’d reckon that Labor losing in Victoria, their heartland for the last couple of decades and the site of a pretty competent state government, would actually be a very bad thing for Labor federally. Sure, as I’ve said previously, a minority government might not hurt, and could help to overcome the inevitable “very, very old government” tag next time around, but a loss to the Coalition would be disastrous all round for labor, I reckon.

  41. Mexican

    South Barwon could be interesting just from the amount of growth that has taken place – the growth in Waurn Ponds and Torquay has been phenomenal over the last few years.

    There has been planning for a new development for about 30,000 people between Geelong and Torquay called Armstrongs Creek – there may be local opposition to that.

    Also, the public transport may not be all that it is cracked up to be – one of my work colleagues is a Geelongonian (what is someone from Geelong called?) recently moved up to Melb – he was saying the other day that the trains are very overcrowded even if you get on at the first stops – South Geelong and Marshall – both of which would draw from South Barwon.

  42. If the 8% swing shown in South Barwon was general in Geelong – then Geelong and Bellarine would just be in play as well – it would be an interesting piece of historical symmetry if there was a change in government because of a 16 vote margin in Geelong.

  47. [If the 8% swing shown in South Barwon was general in Geelong – then Geelong and Bellarine would just be in play as well ]

    South Barwon is very different from Geelong, blackburnpseph. A lot of retirees, a lot of “start up” businesses, a fair few traditional National party types, too. A lot of “enviro-libs”, but not the kind who will vote for The Greens and hand their prefs on to Labor I’m afraid, especially after the “Greens eat babies” approach we have seen from both of the major parties recently.

    One of several seats where Labor efforts to save Melbourne and Brunswick is likely to have a negative effect, I suspect, in that it will reduce the Green vote, and thereby the preference flow to Labor. Pretty hard to hang onto now, I reckon.

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