Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll has it at 50-50 in Victoria, the best result for the Coalition of the campaign. More to follow.

UPDATE: The Herald-Sun has a report which tells us the primary votes are 36 per cent for Labor (the same as in the 500 sample poll Galaxy reportedly conducted for the Victorian Association of Forest Industries), the Coalition on 44 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 14 per cent (two points lower). Other findings are that John Brumby leads Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 52-35; Brumby is more trusted to keep his promises 42-34; and Brumby is rated to have conducted the better campaign 46-31. I’m not quite sure what to make of this, but only 18 per cent say if Labor is re-elected it will be because they deserve to be against 54 per cent who say it will be because they deserve to lose, whereas the figures are more positive for the Coalition: 30 per cent say if they win it will be because they deserved it, against 54 per cent who say it would be because Labor deserved to lose. Possibly it’s a reflection of the fact that more of the respondents who landed on Coalition’s side of the two-party divide got there via primary votes rather than preferences.

UPDATE 2: All polls from the campaign period:

Sample/Dates (Nov) ALP 2PP ALP LNP GRN
Galaxy (800/23-24) 50 36 44 14
JWS Research (9218/20-22) 50.1 35 39 19
Galaxy (500/17-18) 51 36 42 16
Morgan (943/16-18) 52.5 39 41.5 15.5
Nielsen (1000/10-11) 52 38 40 16
Newspoll (1000/9-11) 51 37 44 14
2006 ELECTION 54.4 43.1 39.6 10.0

UPDATE 3: Other happenings:

• The Herald-Sun, The Age and The Australian have all backed Labor in their election eve editorials. Have to wait and see for the paywalled Financial Review, but taking the Sunday papers into account, it’s otherwise been an editorial clean sweep for Labor.

• John Ferguson of the Herald-Sun rates Mt Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Frankston, Prahran and Bentleigh “in real danger of falling”, Melbourne “could fall to the Greens” and “speculation abounds of Bendigo West falling”, but Seymour is “tipped to stay with Labor”. However, “Labor may not hold on to Footscray – a result that would surprise many”.

• Paul Austin of The Age notes the parallels between the current election and 1999: a Premier perceived as arrogant, a 2 to 3 per cent swing at the previous election, an opposition needing 13 seats to win, a feeling that this is a few more than even optimistic projections could deliver, and the latent possibily that a rural backlash could nonetheless make it happen.

• The Herald-Sun has asked various pundits for opinions on who will and should win. Derryn Hinch reckons it too close to call, but Neil Mitchell, Steve Price, Peter van Onselen, Barrie Cassidy, Ross Fitzgerald, Jill Singer and Nick Economou are all willing to punt for Labor. Hinch and Price think the Liberals should win, van Onselen, Fitzgerald, Singer and Economou think Labor, and Mitchell and Cassidy won’t say.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age reviews the situation in the upper house, rating the Greens “almost certain” to hold the balance of power with a representation of five seats.

• The Greens’ number two candidate for the upper house region of Eastern Victoria, Cheryl Wragg, has been disendorsed by her party after repeated public criticisms of the party’s policy to close the Hazelwood power station within four years. Wragg will still be listed in the Greens group on the ballot paper, but will henceforth be running as an independent.

• The Greens have ceased distributing a flyer it was circulating in the electorate of Melbourne which claimed Labor “accepts donations from developers, alcohol gambling and tobacco” after a complaint to the Victorian Electoral Commission. Melbourne candidate Brian Walters has accepted the claim in relation to tobacco was wrong, blaming the error on the volunteer researcher.

• Royce Millar of The Age reports that in response to his beat-up on Tuesday about party databases, Ted Baillieu has said he would make available information kept on constituents “to the maximum extent reasonable” and provide reasons for any refusal, while John Brumby declined to give such an undertaking.

• The Herald-Sun reports Nationals leader Peter Ryan is seeking to emulate Anna Bligh and Tony Abbott with “a 30-hour, 30-town blitz to finish off the campaign”.

• Those who fancy the Coalition’s chances can get $4.65 from Flemington Sportsbet, $4.50 from Centrebet and Sportingbet and $4.25 from Sportsbet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

121 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria”

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  1. Thanks GG but deliberatly running a system down, then arguing it is too expensive to repair as an excuse for closure is vandalism. The removal of infrastructure makes it even harder to reopen – e.g. Leongatha line.

    Overall, successive Victorian Governments have not had a good record with the rail system, the rot started in the mid 1970s, accelerated in the 1980s and was honed to an art in the 1990s. Much of the problems this Govt has had with regional and metro rail stems from poor actions far earlier on.

  3. Might well not be a result before next week.

    [But pre-poll vote counting will not start until Monday morning, potentially delaying the result for days if the election is close.]

  5. Well that is the best poll for the Coal so far, I am getting the feeling of ‘too little, too late’ though, now if the election was one week later…

  7. [I am getting the feeling of ‘too little, too late’ though, now if the election was one week later…]

    I’m not, Dagget. I’m getting worried. Let’s hope this doesn’t become the election that saw Baillieu get into power while Labor and The Greens squabbled with each other and took their eye off the main game.

  9. Fingers crossed it is more of a Qld/SA result, late rush to L/NP but swings in all the wrong places. However what worries me is the very high 61 per cent expecting ALP to win and the potential of a protest vote.

  11. GG

    Dodgy for sure but I don’t know if it counts as polling though.

    I saw this about Bellarine. Dunno what to make of it.

    [The data means more bad news for the Brumby Government, which is panicking over internal research that suggests a swing against Bellarine MP Lisa Neville as well.]

  13. I noticed Paul Austin was trying to liken this poll to ’99. The difference there I think was that the polls were pointing to a clear Liberal win whereas these polls are pointing to a hung parliament. It won’t be a surprise if the Libs equal or get up. I’m pretty sure most gave Labor little chance in ’99.
    I’m predicting a narrow Labor win.

  19. But will Ted? That is the big question.

    13 seats and 6.5% is still a hell of a lot

    If they win 10 and ends up 42-45-1

    Then question will be asked will Ted stay on?

    Picked up 8 in 06 and did a respectable job. Another 8-10 pickup here and he can hold his head high

    Going by natural cycles 2010 should’ve been the end of the ALP but Doyle’s disaster in 2002 set the cycle back an extra 4 years

    I for one fear for Victoria if the ALP get over the line. It will be the same situation as NSW & QLD with “one election win too many” and any next term ALP Brumby govt will be Kenneally/Bligh like disaster before a 2014 Coalition landslide

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