Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll has it at 50-50 in Victoria, the best result for the Coalition of the campaign. More to follow.

UPDATE: The Herald-Sun has a report which tells us the primary votes are 36 per cent for Labor (the same as in the 500 sample poll Galaxy reportedly conducted for the Victorian Association of Forest Industries), the Coalition on 44 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 14 per cent (two points lower). Other findings are that John Brumby leads Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 52-35; Brumby is more trusted to keep his promises 42-34; and Brumby is rated to have conducted the better campaign 46-31. I’m not quite sure what to make of this, but only 18 per cent say if Labor is re-elected it will be because they deserve to be against 54 per cent who say it will be because they deserve to lose, whereas the figures are more positive for the Coalition: 30 per cent say if they win it will be because they deserved it, against 54 per cent who say it would be because Labor deserved to lose. Possibly it’s a reflection of the fact that more of the respondents who landed on Coalition’s side of the two-party divide got there via primary votes rather than preferences.

UPDATE 2: All polls from the campaign period:

Sample/Dates (Nov) ALP 2PP ALP LNP GRN
Galaxy (800/23-24) 50 36 44 14
JWS Research (9218/20-22) 50.1 35 39 19
Galaxy (500/17-18) 51 36 42 16
Morgan (943/16-18) 52.5 39 41.5 15.5
Nielsen (1000/10-11) 52 38 40 16
Newspoll (1000/9-11) 51 37 44 14
2006 ELECTION 54.4 43.1 39.6 10.0

UPDATE 3: Other happenings:

• The Herald-Sun, The Age and The Australian have all backed Labor in their election eve editorials. Have to wait and see for the paywalled Financial Review, but taking the Sunday papers into account, it’s otherwise been an editorial clean sweep for Labor.

• John Ferguson of the Herald-Sun rates Mt Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Frankston, Prahran and Bentleigh “in real danger of falling”, Melbourne “could fall to the Greens” and “speculation abounds of Bendigo West falling”, but Seymour is “tipped to stay with Labor”. However, “Labor may not hold on to Footscray – a result that would surprise many”.

• Paul Austin of The Age notes the parallels between the current election and 1999: a Premier perceived as arrogant, a 2 to 3 per cent swing at the previous election, an opposition needing 13 seats to win, a feeling that this is a few more than even optimistic projections could deliver, and the latent possibily that a rural backlash could nonetheless make it happen.

• The Herald-Sun has asked various pundits for opinions on who will and should win. Derryn Hinch reckons it too close to call, but Neil Mitchell, Steve Price, Peter van Onselen, Barrie Cassidy, Ross Fitzgerald, Jill Singer and Nick Economou are all willing to punt for Labor. Hinch and Price think the Liberals should win, van Onselen, Fitzgerald, Singer and Economou think Labor, and Mitchell and Cassidy won’t say.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age reviews the situation in the upper house, rating the Greens “almost certain” to hold the balance of power with a representation of five seats.

• The Greens’ number two candidate for the upper house region of Eastern Victoria, Cheryl Wragg, has been disendorsed by her party after repeated public criticisms of the party’s policy to close the Hazelwood power station within four years. Wragg will still be listed in the Greens group on the ballot paper, but will henceforth be running as an independent.

• The Greens have ceased distributing a flyer it was circulating in the electorate of Melbourne which claimed Labor “accepts donations from developers, alcohol gambling and tobacco” after a complaint to the Victorian Electoral Commission. Melbourne candidate Brian Walters has accepted the claim in relation to tobacco was wrong, blaming the error on the volunteer researcher.

• Royce Millar of The Age reports that in response to his beat-up on Tuesday about party databases, Ted Baillieu has said he would make available information kept on constituents “to the maximum extent reasonable” and provide reasons for any refusal, while John Brumby declined to give such an undertaking.

• The Herald-Sun reports Nationals leader Peter Ryan is seeking to emulate Anna Bligh and Tony Abbott with “a 30-hour, 30-town blitz to finish off the campaign”.

• Those who fancy the Coalition’s chances can get $4.65 from Flemington Sportsbet, $4.50 from Centrebet and Sportingbet and $4.25 from Sportsbet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

121 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria”

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  5. Gary, I take #3 to be another peddling of the cretinous “Galaxy rigs its late polls to favour the Coalition” conspiracy theory. The latest example being the … er, 52-48 to Labor on the eve of the federal election.

  7. [Gary, I take #3 to be another peddling of the cretinous “Galaxy rigs its late polls to favour the Coalition” conpsiracy theory. The latest example being the … er, 52-48 to Labor on the eve of the federal election.]
    Don’t recall saying that William.

  12. Gary
    Posted Friday, November 26, 2010 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    “Take a look at this front page of The Age and tell me they’re not running an agebda in favour of the Libs.”

    agree
    in fact from over 18 mths ago , Age beefed up anti Labor stuff , and became quite pro both greens & Libs as well

    Change of chairmen to ex Lib Fed Tresurer Ron Walker changed this paper from a moderate left leaning paper for over 10 yrs , to a strange cess pot mix of anti labor rivalling Murdoks Herald

  14. The Herald Sun has done that before. They give Labor shizen in their articles then come election day advocate a vote for them, it’s called having a bob each way.

  16. Gary ill raise you Channel 9 who have been Brumby boosters from the beginning if we’re going to go down the road of conspiracy by media 😀

    Libs could pull off a shock result if this poll is replicated on Saturday 🙂

  18. “The Age has been far more rabid. ”

    Andrew , see #12

    (yea Garry , editorials means nothing if not on front page , its 1 and 3 pages of anti stuff daily that makes a diff , and Glen take off your blue blinkers on Ch 9 of Oakes fames , the’re almost as zzotty as Green blinkers)

  19. [GlenPosted Friday, November 26, 2010 at 12:32 am | PermalinkGary ill raise you Channel 9 who have been Brumby boosters from the beginning if we’re going to go down the road of conspiracy by media
    Libs could pull off a shock result if this poll is replicated on Saturday
    ]

    And note GTV 9 will NOT be doing an election special as they will be busy with both the final Hey Hey, and the special paying tribute to the GTV Studios which are being redeveloped next year.

  20. [Gary ill raise you Channel 9 who have been Brumby boosters from the beginning if we’re going to go down the road of conspiracy by media]
    No, they’ve been even handed. Channel 7 on the other hand have been more for the Libs.

  22. “The primaries are Labor 36, Coalition 44 Greens 14.”

    Same as Fed type polling

    trend is as Green vote goes up , point is not JUST that labor’s primary drops ,

    but trend of Greens primary going up and THAT Liberals primary goes up as ALP expense
    both at Fed and at State level i think there’s a middle oz voter nexus efect

  25. It’s only backing Brumby because Brumby has copied every single decent idea from the Coalition hence the clones bit = ALP (right wing)…

  27. So once again, a swing to the Libs occurs during the dying days of an election period. In the WA, SA and federal elections I attributed this phenomenon to Labor running a lousy campaign, but this time they look to me to have done a reasonable job of selling their message, so I’m not really sure what this is about.

    Seems somehow unfair to me that Keneally’s government should outlast Brumby’s; still, if a Lib has to get up anywhere in the country, I’m glad it’s Baillieu.

  29. As the Herald-Sun site now says the Libs are 8% ahead on primaries,and only the Green prefs can save many ALP seats from falling

    Without the Green prefs Brumby is finished on these figures…and even that may not be enough !!
    How lucky the Greens are giving Labor those much needed prefs.It’s all that could save them !

    Even GG will be impressed(and grateful ??)if the Greens save Labor’s bacon ..If the ALP is running 50/50 with the coalition that is a swiing of about 5% on the 2006 figures and many eastern suburban seats will fall,and a host of country seats as well like Ripon and seats in the main regional cities like Ballarat and Geelong,and also Bendigo.\East
    I believe the “under the radar “issues of which I have written several times… are biting deeply’
    Stupid Peter Batchelor’s surrender to the power companies and his allowing the installation of the new eMeters is an example…people hate them and blame costs rises on them..but the ALP boosters have been more anxious to vilify the Greens than listen to the peoples complaints’…the Libs are the enemy..but that seems beyond the understanding of some…on the radio Batchelor’s excuses were so bad that he was a “gift” to the Libs…
    The same applies to Planning and the much hated Justin Madden.,,who is a disaster!!
    and I suspect there may get a huge swing against him in Essendon

    Watch Yan Yean.too..despite her fulsome admirers here.. on this site.. it’s where the silly decision on the Morang South- Mernda railway will bite,and the charms of Danielle Green may not save her!!

    Eltham too will be a close run thing despite Steve Herbert’s good record….a 5% swing will carry him to the brink !…though Brookes in Bundoora …a good member too…should hold on with Green Prefs!
    Look for surprises in Footscray,Mildura(with an independent win over the Nats),and the inner city..where many Libs will ignore the party ticket and give their Prefs to the Greens in some of those seats..In Mildura the Independant candidate(and local Mayor) has had much help from Katter !The Nats will hate him !
    This will be the closest result in Victoria since Kennett’s defeat in 1999 !
    In such a swing anything is now
    possible !

  30. “but this time they look to me to have done a reasonable job of selling their message, so I’m not really sure what this is about.”

    I suspect over history that polls general narrow against labor from start of campiagns ,
    and this is coincid when Newspapers & TV give max attenton to politcs in headlinings

    unlike you , most public only can get (or want too) info from these souses alone & make a decision

  31. Debonay , your post reveals your abject frustraton & so sensitive at being unable to rebut criticism of Greens polisys that they refuse to get costed by Tresury for fear of being exosed as econamic vandals , there shaby pref deels attempts with Liberals to help Liberals , and for eg Greens admission today of false smear adds against Labor on tobacco and CC , disendorsing a Greens candidate for telling th truth , Barber Greens MLC of zone 1 fame who claims he personaly with his MBA will cost Greens polisys “independently” , Greens candidate at Macedon walks out on a NON aircon public forum after 1 hard Q claiming th heat (after just saying how evil air cons were) , and th list goes on

    Flowerpot , I hope your post was not your best serve , as it was quiet minus ordinary

  32. [Monash University politics lecturer Nick Economou said voters in the eastern and southeastern suburbs were tired of the Government.

    “But voters don’t look angry enough to turf Labor out of government,” he said.

    Mr Economou said the two most likely outcomes were Labor holding on to power with a 3-5-seat majority or a hung Parliament with the Greens and independents holding the balance of power.]

    In full agreement nick. LNP to win 20 upper house seats thanks to the SexParty/DLP preference deals. (SexParty officials are trying to deflect criticism by denying that their preferences flows will help elect a 3rd Liberal candidate in Southern Metropolitan Region – Loberal Party 2, ALP 1 and Greens 1 will be elected on Primary vote. SexParty at the point of distribution the only to candidates remaining in the count will be Liberals and ALP. The Sexparty Pimary vote estimated at 2% will be transfered to the Liberal Party at full value)

  33. I hope to Christ that Victorians do a Jeff Kennett come election day.

    I think Labor have taken a win for granted and perhaps Victorians will suffer them a humiliating defeat at the last minute.

  34. Ouch. 50-50. Not too good for Labor, not that great for the Libs either. Will there be an election eve Newspoll? I trust Newsy the most, so I’d like to see its numbers, if applicable. Either way, whatever. Not exactly the most inspiring election if I understand correctly.

  35. Ron
    My comments were based on what I believe will happen if the recent polls are correct
    Your biased view of the Greens may be satisfying to you and some others but bears no relations to what is happening out there in the real world!..as we will see soon enough !

    The Greens are not an issue,except in the mind of some very paranoid Labor people..
    .
    As events will show Labor cannot win with out the help of the Greens They hold the key and Brumby will sink or swim only with Greens help
    Try to focus on that point.!! this is a changed world !!]

    Whether some Greens fretted over air-com is of not the slightest importance. now.

    Bigger things are on the way…How would you feel about a Labor-Green alliance in a hung parliament.??..there is already such in Canberra and in the ACT and Tasmania.with Green Ministers in a Labor Govt in Hobart…and soon they will have the Balance in the Senate…and I’m sure in the Vic. Leg Council after Saturday !

    Without the Greens Labor will not win power anywhere.in Australia in a long time..with a primary vote below 40% a win for Labor alone is no longer possible…Labor’s future is now bound up with the Greens…and you and some others on this blog better come to terms with that…as the ALP has had to do in Tas…and the ACT!
    It’s called “eating humble pie”…better get used to it ! You might come to like it !

  37. I expect a ‘rural backlash’ on Saturday but I don’t think it will have any effect on the election result (except in that it may have skewed the polls a little).

    The rural backlash in ’99 against Kennett was damaging to him because these were not Labor held seats. Labor won seats in Gippsland, for example, that it never dreamt it would ever win.

    Now many of these have gone back to the Coalition, so even if there is a rural backlash, it won’t see Labor losing seats.

    What it may have done is prop up the Coalition votes in the polls, meaning that some seats presently seen as ‘in play’ on the basis of Victoria wide polls are actually a lot safer than they appear.

  38. Debonay

    you fail to undrstand westminister ststem requiring both Labor & Libs BOTH to get a 50% plus 2 PPP , and neither get 50% alone !! please do your politcal numbers

    so both Partys simply “use” Partys like yours to top up to 50% plus , however your use by date of playing stealth games ( but pretend to being a friend) is becoming more & more over as Labor figures realize they need to expose your lots whaky polisys

    I agree with Graham Richo this week , Labor needs to quote him show your ‘whaccy polisys off to public , hope Julia heeds message

  39. Zoom

    like to know city vs country vote split (and city plus regional vs non regional vote split , may be ok as in SA Newspoll on electon day had it 48/52 , yet we won by a few seats

    off to pre polls

  40. [ However, “Labor may not hold on to Footscray – a result that would surprise many” ]

    Not this little black duck. If Catherine Cumming does the implausible and wins Footscray, I’ll be doing a bit of this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCQ7VLoY7bQ

    Has there been any more word on Craig Ingram in Gippsland East? That individual seat poll the other day reckoned he was gonna get thumped.

    Deblonay at 29:

    [ Eltham too will be a close run thing despite Steve Herbert’s good record….a 5% swing will carry him to the brink !…though Brookes in Bundoora …a good member too…should hold on with Green Prefs! ]

    Eltham, sure. I was looking at some of Ben Raue’s excellent maps the other day, for Eltham / Yan Yean on one side of the Yarra and Warrandyte / Bulleen on the other. I realise the river’s a major social divide there, but I can’t understand how riverside suburbs have a vote 15-20% better for Labor if they’re on the north side. What’s so different about Heidelberg and Bulleen, for example?

    As for Bundoora, as much as the results of the Libs winning there would be hilarious here on PB, I can’t imagine the Liberals getting anywhere near winning it. Unless there’s something going on there which would cause a 15% swing, anyway. (Is there?)

  47. [Watch Yan Yean.too..despite her fulsome admirers here.. on this site.. it’s where the silly decision on the Morang South- Mernda railway will bite,and the charms of Danielle Green may not save her!!]

    No deblonay. The Mernda railway / bus track issue won’t be anything like enough of an issue for Danielle Green to lose Yan Yean.

    The people it affects aren’t strong Labor areas anyway and outside of the Laurimer / Mernda strip of new housing developments it is a complete non issue. It will be more than offset by the very significant population growth in very strong Labor areas north of Epping. As long as Greens prefs hold for Danielle (and they generally flow strongly in most parts of the electorate, outside, perhaps, of Warrandyte and Kangaroo Ground – where many of the Greens votes actually come off the Libs anyway) she will get home easily. THe heavy handed focus by Labor on fighting The Greens rather than fighting the Libs might cost her a bit in the way of prefs percentages, but I think she will actually go against the trend and hold the seat with very little change.

  49. poll is 50-50 and the Liberals have no chance wow

    What if the poll has a margin of error of 2% and the Liberals are actually in front 51.5-48.5?

  50. I think it will be tighter than I thought earlier, victoria.

    It is the regions and the eastern suburbs that are going to cause the problems. I think the picture is quite different from that out in the NE suburbs where labor will hold pretty well.

    Labors vote will be down, the Libs vote will be up a bit, and the Greens vote will be up quite a bit more, in the east and around the bay. The same probably also applies around Geelong. These electorates will therefore depend heavily on Greens prefs , and they may not hold as well as usual given the nature of the Labor campaign. It would certainly be ironic if Labor found that it actually had to rely on a Greens member in Melbourne for example, primarily because its campaign there had ‘softened” the Greens preference flow in other marginal seats, thereby helping the Linbs get up in them.

    In other regional areas I suspect the Labor vote will be down, the Greens vote will grow a little , and the coalition vote will grow quite a bit. It is all going to come down to the size of the margins.

    Craig Ingram will probably go, despite being well supported by Labor (in a way that irritates many Greens voters, with Madden’s intervention in the Bastion Point boat ramp etc) but this may well be balanced by a new independent in Mildura (whose allegiances we will have to wait and see!).

    I still think Labor will get up, but just, and it may well find that it needs the support of a Green or two from the inner city seats if a by-election comes along at a bad time before the next state election.

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