Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll has it at 50-50 in Victoria, the best result for the Coalition of the campaign. More to follow.

UPDATE: The Herald-Sun has a report which tells us the primary votes are 36 per cent for Labor (the same as in the 500 sample poll Galaxy reportedly conducted for the Victorian Association of Forest Industries), the Coalition on 44 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 14 per cent (two points lower). Other findings are that John Brumby leads Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 52-35; Brumby is more trusted to keep his promises 42-34; and Brumby is rated to have conducted the better campaign 46-31. I’m not quite sure what to make of this, but only 18 per cent say if Labor is re-elected it will be because they deserve to be against 54 per cent who say it will be because they deserve to lose, whereas the figures are more positive for the Coalition: 30 per cent say if they win it will be because they deserved it, against 54 per cent who say it would be because Labor deserved to lose. Possibly it’s a reflection of the fact that more of the respondents who landed on Coalition’s side of the two-party divide got there via primary votes rather than preferences.

UPDATE 2: All polls from the campaign period:

Sample/Dates (Nov) ALP 2PP ALP LNP GRN
Galaxy (800/23-24) 50 36 44 14
JWS Research (9218/20-22) 50.1 35 39 19
Galaxy (500/17-18) 51 36 42 16
Morgan (943/16-18) 52.5 39 41.5 15.5
Nielsen (1000/10-11) 52 38 40 16
Newspoll (1000/9-11) 51 37 44 14
2006 ELECTION 54.4 43.1 39.6 10.0

UPDATE 3: Other happenings:

• The Herald-Sun, The Age and The Australian have all backed Labor in their election eve editorials. Have to wait and see for the paywalled Financial Review, but taking the Sunday papers into account, it’s otherwise been an editorial clean sweep for Labor.

• John Ferguson of the Herald-Sun rates Mt Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Frankston, Prahran and Bentleigh “in real danger of falling”, Melbourne “could fall to the Greens” and “speculation abounds of Bendigo West falling”, but Seymour is “tipped to stay with Labor”. However, “Labor may not hold on to Footscray – a result that would surprise many”.

• Paul Austin of The Age notes the parallels between the current election and 1999: a Premier perceived as arrogant, a 2 to 3 per cent swing at the previous election, an opposition needing 13 seats to win, a feeling that this is a few more than even optimistic projections could deliver, and the latent possibily that a rural backlash could nonetheless make it happen.

• The Herald-Sun has asked various pundits for opinions on who will and should win. Derryn Hinch reckons it too close to call, but Neil Mitchell, Steve Price, Peter van Onselen, Barrie Cassidy, Ross Fitzgerald, Jill Singer and Nick Economou are all willing to punt for Labor. Hinch and Price think the Liberals should win, van Onselen, Fitzgerald, Singer and Economou think Labor, and Mitchell and Cassidy won’t say.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age reviews the situation in the upper house, rating the Greens “almost certain” to hold the balance of power with a representation of five seats.

• The Greens’ number two candidate for the upper house region of Eastern Victoria, Cheryl Wragg, has been disendorsed by her party after repeated public criticisms of the party’s policy to close the Hazelwood power station within four years. Wragg will still be listed in the Greens group on the ballot paper, but will henceforth be running as an independent.

• The Greens have ceased distributing a flyer it was circulating in the electorate of Melbourne which claimed Labor “accepts donations from developers, alcohol gambling and tobacco” after a complaint to the Victorian Electoral Commission. Melbourne candidate Brian Walters has accepted the claim in relation to tobacco was wrong, blaming the error on the volunteer researcher.

• Royce Millar of The Age reports that in response to his beat-up on Tuesday about party databases, Ted Baillieu has said he would make available information kept on constituents “to the maximum extent reasonable” and provide reasons for any refusal, while John Brumby declined to give such an undertaking.

• The Herald-Sun reports Nationals leader Peter Ryan is seeking to emulate Anna Bligh and Tony Abbott with “a 30-hour, 30-town blitz to finish off the campaign”.

• Those who fancy the Coalition’s chances can get $4.65 from Flemington Sportsbet, $4.50 from Centrebet and Sportingbet and $4.25 from Sportsbet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

121 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria”

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  2. [I agree with Graham Richo this week , Labor needs to quote him show your ‘whaccy polisys off to public , hope Julia heeds message]

    The average Greens voter is a highly educated young urban professional. These voters fully understand & accept a large part of the Greens policy platform.

    The only way for Labor to get some of these voters back is to “earn it” … by making Labor into a truly progressive party instead of Liberal-lite.

  3. The average Greens voter is a highly educated young urban professional. These voters fully understand & accept a large part of the Greens policy platform.

    Exactly true.

    And how many ALP or LIB voters would you say understand or even know the contents of those parties policy platforms?

    I’d estimate a lower percentage than GRN voters.

    Simply put, Labor are not progressive enough for my tastes. They’ll certainly get my preference well before the Liberals though.

    And lets face it – you’ll probably need my preference in my seat (Prahran).

  5. Would any of the other Labor or Green supporters here like to consider redirecting some of their ammunition at the real enemy, who seem to be rather close to the gates, rather than at each other?

  6. People forget that in 1999 it was Geelong that finally put Labor over the line. Labor seems to be in trouble in Geelong but although Libs are swamping us with direct mail they are not campaigning on the ground. The rural backlash theme is overhyped the marginals are in Melbourne apart from South Barwon.

  7. Why do that Rod?

    The Greens dont win many votes of the Liberals = no point attacking them.
    The Greens take votes off Labor who are their main enemy if they are to one day replace them as the force on the left = so have at them I say 😀

  8. Oh and GG I agree with your belief that michael o’brien will take over should Baillieu not pull it off. Seems like a decent chap.

  11. Also we’d have O’s leading the Oppositions of Victoria and NSW.

    O’Brien and O’Farrel

    Oh GG I bet we could agree on several things when not name calling each other as hacks 🙂

  12. Rod, as a Greens supporter I certainly hope that Labor soundly beat the Coalition tomorrow.

    I don’t mind Brumby actually, have actually made a coffee for him when he was at an old workplace for a meeting (and the CEO’s PA was absent)…and yes, he’s a latte-sipper 😉

    Here on the ground in Prahran the anti-clearway groups are out in force…’Clear Brumby Away’ signs in around 60% of shopfronts on High St I’d say.

    Clem Newtown-Brown (Lib candidate) has been far more visible too – met him at Toorak station a few weeks back. I told him I found that interesting seeing as it was the former Lib government that castrated the public transport network, and was only narrowly stopped from doing further damage (like their attempt to close the Upfield line).

    We Greens should do pretty well too – hopefully get close to 20% of the PV.

  13. Badseed I too have noticed the Clem Newton-Brown signs up in businesses along Malvern Road/Commercial Road on the way to the shops at Prahran.

    I think Lupton will struggle given his primary vote will be slashed by the combined weight of the Libs and Greens 🙂

  14. 57 Glen

    Don’t get too complacent. Just because more former Labor voters &/ preferencers are voting Green doesn’t mean that the Liberal vote isn’t being eroded too. I know former Liberal voters who are happy to have changed allegiance to the Greens.
    For purportedly analytical people on this blog, theres a lot of naïve perceptions underlying a lot of posts from all quarters:
    Hubris: our vote will never decline or we will win the election
    Electors like Me: the voters who support my party support it for the same reasons, I as a hack/zealot/employee/tragic do.
    Linear view: the convenient model of left-right politics is the analysis that all voters live by like issues in people’s real lives and or values/trust do not exist for voters.

    pollytics observation of the 2007 doubling of the Green vote is more likely about what Liberal and Labor are not doing than anything the Greens have said or done, except for being there and consistently.

  16. Referring to William’s table above, Galaxy (both recent polls) and JWS are pretty much in agreement on the ALP primary vote 35-6% – but differ quite markedly on the Liberals and the Greens – the difference might arise from the fact that Galaxy is a statewide sample while JWS only covered specified seats probably upwardly biasing the Green vote by including all the seats where the Greens are challenging the ALP.

    Assuming Galaxy i about right at a statewide level that would imply a swing against the ALP from the last election of around 7%, a swing to the Liberals of 2-4% and a swing to the Greens of 4-6%.

  17. [The Greens dont win many votes of the Liberals = no point attacking them.
    The Greens take votes off Labor who are their main enemy if they are to one day replace them as the force on the left = so have at them I say ]

    Yes, the Liberal strategy of encouraging ’em to fight each other has been very effective, hasn’t it ,Glen.

    If, like me, you don’t care whether particular seats are held by Labor or the Greens , as long as they aren’t held by the Libs, though, it isn’t an approach that has anything at all to recommend it!

  18. “These voters fully understand and accept a large part of the Greens policy platform”

    Do they also understand and accept the consequences of these insane policy platforms?
    Or are they the mindless cretins i think they are, just ambling along through life wanting to feel all warm and fuzzy about a Green world? Let’s improve the public transport system and have more trams and trains at the same time as closing down all the power stations? How are they going to do it? how will it be costed? How do they manage to get up in the morning? We now live in an unsafe, over taxed, over populated city with poor infrastructure and the only similarity i can see to the once great city i grew up in for years is that it’s raining again almost everyday! The only Green i like is how nice all our parks and gardens look right now! Unenlightened Green self interest doesn’t impress me one bit.

  19. Johnfromplanetearth

    You complain about living in an overtaxed city with poor infrastructure. This perfectly highlights what waste the governments of the last two decades have been doing.

    Before you bleat about “consequences” think about the relationship between taxes and infrastructure provision. Which one don’t you want?

  20. Or are they the mindless cretins i think they are, just ambling along through life wanting to feel all warm and fuzzy about a Green world? Let’s improve the public transport system and have more trams and trains at the same time as closing down all the power stations? How are they going to do it? how will it be costed?

    And the Labor solution is?

    I don’t support destroying our economy – very few Greens do.

    I do however, support a transition to a low-carbon, high-skills economy. Not one based on digging coal or ore out of the ground and shipping it around the world.

    But most of the folks in the major parties don’t even want a discussion about how we even get the ball rolling on this.

  22. Yeah Brumby drinks coffee with his collar open while he is chucking wool onto a table in a country shed.

    He is a real “person’s person.”

  25. Look like the election will be on ABC news 24. Just checked their programme guide and it does say it is on. Good news for us non-Vic residents.

  36. Glen,
    We can’t have the coverage extending beyond 10.30 and delaying the final episode of “New Tricks”.
    Given that we don’t have to deal with the WA time zone difference, it seems pretty likely that the final figures (if not the argy-bargy, if it’s really tight) will be well over by 9-30 or 10.

  38. LOL! The Opposition keeps trying to suspend standing orders in order to move new motions simply as a way of stopping a final vote on the bill. Brandis wants to move a motion to continue debate until 4 PM.

  40. Badseed @ 62

    It was the Cain / Kirner governments that wanted to close the Upfield train line or at minimum convert it to light rail. It was the Kennett government that secured its future.

    It was also the Cain Government that sold the rail reservation land that went through Doncaster.

  43. Daggett

    Shock, horror – I have to agree with GG at 92. It would have to be said that the light rail provides a much better service than the train ever did.

  44. Still an example of state sanctioned vandalism. The end result is not the same as a proper railway but better than a busway! Just lucky upfield never happened the same.

    However, things were different in the 1980s and public transport was only for pensioners, students and people who were unable to drive.

  48. [Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu’s Liberal-National Coalition is set win a close Victorian State Election with the L-NP (51%, up 3.5% in a week) leading the ALP (49%, down 3.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last four nights in Victoria, November 22-25, 2010.

    Despite the L-NP now leading the Two-Party preferred vote, the clear majority of electors (61%) still think the ALP ‘will win’ tomorrow’s election compared to just 21% who expect the L-NP to win the election.

    Primary support has risen for the L-NP 44.5% (up 3% from November 16-18, 2010, and up 4.9% from the 2006 Victorian State Election), ALP support has collapsed to 35.5% (down 3.5% from November 16-18, 2010 and down 7.6% from the 2006 Election), the Greens 13% (down 2.5%, but up 3% from the 2006 Election), Family First 1.5% (unchanged, but down 2.8% from the 2006 Election) and Independents/Other 5.5% (up 3%).]

  49. blackburnpseph

    That is probabaly correct now, service levels and frequency are higher than in the depths of the 1980s. My objection to the process is that you cannot improve the service back to heavy rail, which moves far more people as all the essential infrastructure has been removed. The same thing happened during RFR with the removal of one line north of Kyneton.

  50. Re: Morgan Poll

    A 1999 re-run on the cards?

    Do agree with Gary Morgan though. The ALP’s “ummmmmmmmmm”/meerkat/anti-Ted ads have been pathetic & childish & lost a lot more votes than they have gained

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