Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll

Roy Morgan hasn’t let itself be put off by the flak it copped with last week’s small-sample poll results from the four inner-city Labor-versus-Greens contests, repeating the exercise with only a slightly larger sample of 327 respondents. Taken together they show Labor leading the Greens 53-47, which is seven points better for Labor than last week’s poll. All told this points to a 3 per cent swing to the Greens compared with 2006, which if uniform would just tip Labor out in Melbourne, but leave them safe in Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote. This is indeed borne out by the seat-by-seat breakdowns, which have it at 50-50 in Melbourne, 57-43 in Richmond, 52-48 in Brunswick and 52.5-47.5 in Northcote. The margin of error on the combined result is approaching 5.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Now Morgan offers a spiffy video display of “worm”-style Reactor responses to various election ads. It finds Coalition voters were far more positive about their own side’s advertising than were Labor’s, but that Labor appeared to offer both the most (attacking Liberal spending plans) and least (the famous Baillieu Knight Frank ad) effective attack ads. Labor also did pretty well among independents and Greens with a humanised John Brumby’s fireside chat on the economy. Labor’s “meerkat” and the Liberals’ “are we there yet” attack ads failed to impress Greens and independents in roughly equal measure, but the Liberals did better with their “mouldy fruit” ad. The Greens ad, once it began laying on the hard sell, found Labor voters responding barely less positively than to ads from their own side, while Coalition and independent voters headed south.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

403 comments on “Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll”

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  1. Victoria,

    So you’ve got Brooksy and Harry. If you live in Banyule you’ve scored the trifecta with quality representatives.

  9. GG

    Yes she is. I gave her my vote even though she was barely 21 years old. I felt that a young fresh face would be great representative. I have lived in Banyule for over 20 years, and have found it to be a great Council.

  11. In case you guys haven’t seen this, late nigh funny (apologies if it’s already been mentioned):

    [Transcript snip from Glenn Beck’s radio show:
    CO-HOST: How would you handle a situation like the one that just developed in North Korea?
    PALIN: But obviously, we’ve got to stand with our North Korean allies. We’re bound to by treaty—
    CO-HOST: South Korean.
    PALIN: Eh, Yeah. And we’re also bound by prudence to stand with our South Korean allies, yes.]

    I hope she becomes the President one day 😉

  14. george-I hope you’ve read through your handbook
    Everyone else the ALP vote is holding best case scenario -3, worse case scenario -10
    there are plenty of seats in play.
    My question is who will be new opposition leader; O’Brien? Mulder? Ryan?

  15. I shudder to think who on earth the Libs will have as their leader if Baillieu loses but that being said I wished Baillieu would have done a good enough job to have made this election a forgone conclusion but he failed hence my reasoning to not give the Libs my primary vote merely my preference.

    No Kerry O’Brien for the coverage 🙁 . Virginia Trioli and Ian Henderson + (Antony Green 😀 )

  16. Glen

    that is my point. There is not enough talented people on the coalition side. I think I mentioned this recently, but Ryan has a face that is not simpatico. He will not make it as a Leader.

  18. GG that’s one way of putting it 😀

    Ryan has a hard looking face but he sounds more like a leader but the VIC Libs would never allow Ryan to be leader.

  21. Pegasus
    Posted Thursday, November 25, 2010 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

    “FWIW anecdotally (not much, I know), during my pre-poll shifts in Forest Hill I have observed voters refusing the Labor HTV but taking the Liberals and Greens HTVs.

    Your shifts must last 30 seconds a day
    I been on almost every day for 2 wks & your coments defys realitty Alot % will take all cause they aint rude or embarass to declare hands

    (BTW your forest plans is said to cost 24,000 jobs , you cut them all downin forest Hills

  28. GG wrote [ If you live in Banyule you’ve scored the trifecta with quality representatives].

    Make that a quadrella by including Steve Herbert in my seat of Eltham

  29. GG,
    [Good luck with re foresting Forest Hill.]
    I appreciate your good wishes.

    But are you referring to the electorate of FH in which I reside which was only created in 1976 so therefore had no forests to begin with? Or do you mean the suburb of Forest Hill in which I do not live and which is a much smaller geographical region and dates back to 1874?

  32. haydn,

    I was being specific about Victoria’s siuation.

    However, I concur that Steve Herbert is a hardworking, active and quality local member.

  34. Haydn

    I thought the seat was more marginal than that. You are right to suggest that if there were a 6.5% swing, Labor is definitely doomed.

  37. GG

    wont give th Green peacocks here a freebie , but can say there is not anger in th air here either mate , but a few collection of seats I’m told s/east from Warragul rd to Hills is some worry Other first worrys more scattered eg 1 southern , corangamite way , & a couple regional incl bendigo area A majority win I see tho reduced (Pegasus will rejoice)

  41. I believe the Greens vote peaked a few weeks after the Federal Election.
    After they got a whiff of power, and signed a deal with Labor, power went to their head. They quickly dropped any pretence that the environment was their first priority.
    They reverted to their policy of death, and proposed introducing euthenasia by stealth in the terrorities.
    Barber has further destroyed their credibility by his bullying tactics and loud mouth.
    The voting public were able to see the Greens as they really are, a rabble.
    And the Libs finally showed some backbone and preferenced the Greens last.
    So a few weeks ago when the campaign was about to start the Greens were favoured to win up to 4 seats in the Lower House, and 5 in the Upper House.
    Now it is extremely unlikely that they will win any seats in the Lower House, and may win 2 seats in the Upper House, if preferences go their way.
    My predictions for this election are;
    Lower House- Nats to win 2 seats, 1 from Ingrim, labor to have a majority of 4 seats.
    Upper House,
    Labor 16
    Lib/Nat 18
    Greens 2
    DLP 2
    C.A 2
    Total 40

  42. Victoria, I expect there will be a swing back this time, but not 6.5%. If letterboxing and mailouts is a factor he’s home because we have received about 10 times as much from him than from Andrew Hart, the Liberal candidate.

  45. I’ve been a member of the Greensborough Branch since June. Colin Brooks always comes along to the monthly meeting. Yes, he is very impressive.

  47. Pegasus
    Posted Thursday, November 25, 2010 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

    “What do you think about Labor’s group voting ticket in Northern Metro? First party to receive Labor’s preferences is the Sex Party followed by the Greens”

    but you know , unlike your green mate Rod Hagen that Labor’s pref for sex is because Greens refused labor’s offer to giv Greens there 2nd prefs in all seats in both chambers

    So how do you explain those lost 24,000 forest jobs under your Greens polisy & how you xplain your strange pre polling poll ‘comment’

  50. Roos myrmidons up to a bit of skulduggery.

    [It seems now, though, that ethics-free journalism is building a beach-head here. Emailing MPs under an assumed names, reporters at the Herald Sun in Melbourne sought to entrap candidates in the Victorian election over campaign donations and mandatory sentencing.]

    http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com/

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