Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll

Roy Morgan hasn’t let itself be put off by the flak it copped with last week’s small-sample poll results from the four inner-city Labor-versus-Greens contests, repeating the exercise with only a slightly larger sample of 327 respondents. Taken together they show Labor leading the Greens 53-47, which is seven points better for Labor than last week’s poll. All told this points to a 3 per cent swing to the Greens compared with 2006, which if uniform would just tip Labor out in Melbourne, but leave them safe in Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote. This is indeed borne out by the seat-by-seat breakdowns, which have it at 50-50 in Melbourne, 57-43 in Richmond, 52-48 in Brunswick and 52.5-47.5 in Northcote. The margin of error on the combined result is approaching 5.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Now Morgan offers a spiffy video display of “worm”-style Reactor responses to various election ads. It finds Coalition voters were far more positive about their own side’s advertising than were Labor’s, but that Labor appeared to offer both the most (attacking Liberal spending plans) and least (the famous Baillieu Knight Frank ad) effective attack ads. Labor also did pretty well among independents and Greens with a humanised John Brumby’s fireside chat on the economy. Labor’s “meerkat” and the Liberals’ “are we there yet” attack ads failed to impress Greens and independents in roughly equal measure, but the Liberals did better with their “mouldy fruit” ad. The Greens ad, once it began laying on the hard sell, found Labor voters responding barely less positively than to ads from their own side, while Coalition and independent voters headed south.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

403 comments on “Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll”

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  1. Glen 325
    [Madcyril just leave it to Antony who needs anybody else telling us about election results ]
    Yes, there is nothing more annoying than the other people crapping on about their interpretation of nothing while they ignore Antony who really should do the whole show himself (without any journos or former politicians!)

  2. ockerguy 340 I think your wrong

    Which seats do you think each will win? DLP has only a chance in one seat (North metro), Greens will hold on to 3 (North, West and south metro) and maybe increase by one. Liberal/NP will increase by two maybe 3 (Sex Party ATL GVT sees them over the line in Southern Metro) giving them a total of 20

    I agree Ingram has gone. Greens maybe one (Brunswick where Cleary is a feeder candidate)

  3. Gus,

    Of course Haydn and I are brothers in the Labor Movement. We see wrong and we try to right it, see Libs and try to crush them. See Greens and laugh.

    The light on the hill is still burning.

  4. QQ,
    Peter Kavanagh can win Western Victoria with a vote of 4.50%.
    The total combined ALP/Greens vote is likely to be less than 50%
    Dlp will get preferences from C A, F.F,and CDP, and LIB/Nat.
    It depends on the strength of the LIB/NAT vote as to whether DLP or NAT hold that seat

  5. Oh cmon GG it’s not as if anybody watches ABC2 at 9pm at night anyway.

    I like the idea that the BBC has done in the past. It’d be an interesting look at our political history. I would like to see 1969 with Gorton getting up by the seat of his pants 😀

  6. Antony Greens Upper House calculator is down at the moment so i cannot provide figures to back up my prediction.
    But i have put figures in his calculator that show Peter Kavanagh winning a seat with 4.46% of the vote.

  7. Glen,

    I suppose they could supplement it with footage of people looking for the sub that took Harold Holt away down at Portsea.

    BTW I saw a tweet today from Michael O’Brien saying he was off to re open the Harold Holt Swimming Pool. Politically incorrect, but it always cracks me up.

  8. ockerguy
    Posted Thursday, November 25, 2010 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    “I believe the Greens vote peaked a few weeks after the Federal Election.
    After they got a whiff of power, and signed a deal with Labor, power went to their head. They quickly dropped any pretence that the environment was their first priority.”

    dont agree with first sentense but only due to there mad hatta polisys not put onto Public blowtorch yet Agree with 2nd & 3rds sentence

  9. Glen 361

    The telecasts used to be very light on technology obviously, with the numbers manually being put on the board. A bit like the old Brownlow, when they experimented with the team captains putting up the numbers (but they had to add up the players’ totals themselves, and after a few drinks showed that maths was not really their thing!)

  10. Oh come on wRONg, you are looking into the mirror and can only see the illusion of who you think you are, the following two sentences is a descriptive of the ALP, Oh thats right its OK because you lot of brainiacs are ‘pragmatic realist”.

    After they got a whiff of power, and signed a deal with (the big miners etc), power went to their head. They quickly dropped any pretence that the (workers rights) was their first priority.”

  11. “Check out the type of people the ALP preference”

    but you like your Green mate Rod Hagen know that Labor’s current pref is because Greens refused labor’s offer to giv Greens there 2nd prefs in all seats in both chambers

    and thats because youse lot limited th no of seats to pref Labor so incr chances of a Lib Govt (just to get Liberal prefs in inner city Seats off Labor)

    Not only you lot display this trachery , but then you got arrogance above to even then ? what Labor prefs had to do BECAUSE of your pref slezzyness

  12. [You’re out at Diamond Creek? How’s Danielle travelling]

    Danielle Green is a pretty popular member from what I’ve seen, GG. Much more so than Hagemeyer was. There are certainly more Labor placards around in the streets than there were for the Federal election (surprising given that this is McEwen on the Federal level). Plenty of Greens too, of course. Less from the Libs, although they increased a bit in the last day or so.

    They all seem to be working the streets pretty hard. Regular stalls from all three parties even in Hurstbridge, as well as Diamo, with plenty of candidate “presence”.

    The new subdivisions north of Epping will be good for Danielle Green. They were some of the very best for Labor in the Federal election. The new developments north of South Morang and Doreen won’t be quite so good (may struggle to get a 50 – 50 split on 2PP given the railway extension issues etc. and the voting patterns there in the federal election). Diamo and Diamo east (quite big booths) were good for Labor in Federal election compared to the previous election.

    Hurstbridge and St Andrews will both have a big green vote (over 20% in each if it follows the Federal pattern), but Green prefs here always go very strongly to Labor and while there will be a bit of a drop off this time after the brawling Danielle Green will easily win these booths on a 2PP basis. She is personally popular in both these townships (as is Karen Geradts for the greens, while the Lib candidate is more closely identified with Diamond Ck, though not a major “presence” even there).

    So overall I think Danielle Green will easily hold. The demographic changes in Yan Yean should pretty much counterbalance any general swing against Labor.

    So its not one you need to worry about IMHO. If Labor lose Yan Yean, then they will lose government. With a nearly 8% buffer, a good candidate, and demographic changes that favour Labor, I reckon the chances of changing hands are pretty close to zero.

  13. Rod,

    Danielle’s a good member. Member of the CFA. I remember a few years ago (not Black Saturday) she was supposed to turn up to a function but did not. A few were peeved until it was pointed out that she and her unit were out on the job.

  14. [Rod, Danielle’s a good member. ]

    Yes, I agree, GG. I’ve run into her a few times in connection with Hurstbridge school stuff and always been favourably impressed. Always made a pleasant relief from having to deal with Fran Bailey at the same events! Good at getting local things done generally, too.

  15. Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, November 25, 2010 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    “Danielle’s a good member. ”

    GG , given her massive margin , her Seat is a shoe in

    As for Rod Hagen throwing in his crap about “brawling” , this is caused incident by Greens lies against Labor & Greens sleezy pref deel , but this seat will be won by Labor no matter what a ireelevant group of Greens think so your ref to brals is not only disengenuous but naeve

  16. “Macedon Ranges Ratepayers Association.

    Four candidates came along, Liberal, the Labor incumbent, anti-pokies independent Dr Lorraine Bayer and the Greens candidate Nicky Haslinghouse.

    The first three were all good, polite, spoke well and seemed measured decent people. All I’m sure would make good MP’s. Then there was poor little Nicky.(Green)

    She seemed to think that the whole night was some Greens PR stunt and all she had to do was turn up and adoring crowds would fete her every utterance. Her performance stunned and amazed those assembled:

    The 21 year old Melbourne University-attending, mud brick house dwelling ( it’s true she made a point of mentioning it) lefttard, who professes to have the answer to society’s ills despite still living at home with affluent mummy and daddy and never having held a job, started off in typical pixie-dwelling condescending greens fashion, made repeated mentions of “the great Bob Brown” (its true, she actually referred to him as the ‘great Bob Brown’) whom she “loves” dished out a series of empty platitudinous statements in response to a series of set questions that had been submitted in advance by the forum organisers.

    Things THEN disintegrated when questions were taken from the audience. Unable to answer why it was that the three upper house greens have never once taken up repeated offers to sit on the parliamentary environment committee, Haslinghouse retorted that perhaps it had something to do with the other people on the committee. When it was pointed out to her that two of the committee members Joanne Duncan and Donna Petrovich were both present in the room, an awkward silence followed, accompanied by a strange pained expression on her face.

    A clearly flustered Haslinghouse stumbled through the next question before announcing that she had to leave as she had been sitting in a hot car all day and that the room was too hot and if she didn’t leave right now she was going to collapse in a dramatic fainting performance.

    Haslinghouse who had previously pulled out at the last minute at an earlier community forum held in Sunbury without explanation despite giving repeated guarantees to the forum organisers that she was keen to attend appears not to be cut out for pesky concepts such as political accountability, preferring the good life of selectively answering tame questions fed to her on Facebook by a legion (well 200) of spotty undergraduates.”

    seems answering Q’s and being criticised in th reel World aint Greens pref

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