Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with their primary vote down a point to 45 per cent, Labor steady on 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Supplementary questions find respondents overwhelmingly of the belief that more competition is needed in the banking sector, trusting Joe Hockey and the Liberals slightly more on the issue than Wayne Swan and Labor; attaching high importance to our relationships with the United States and perfidious New Zealand, but indifferent about Germany and South Africa; rating the influence of the United States as weakening (60 per cent) rather than strengthening (20 per cent); and supporting same-sex marriage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,198 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Hitchens lost me with his “hang up” about 911.

    I want to ask him if he remembers 25/3 when USA secretly bombed Cambodia into the arms of Pol Pot Killing Fields where 2.5m died.

  2. [The Parliament failed to function for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, with the Opposition insisting on a Joint Parliamentary Committee probe into the 2G spectrum allocation and Congress and JD(S) hitting back alleging land scam involving BJP-led government in Karnataka. ]

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article893613.ece

    What’s wrong with Conroy?

    the India’s Minister of Telecom had to resign because he has been accused of corruption over the allocation of the 2G Spectrum.

  3. [Hitchens lost me with his “hang up” about 911.
    I want to ask him if he remembers 25/3 when USA secretly bombed Cambodia into the arms of Pol Pot Killing Fields where 2.5m died.]

    Given Hitchens is notably keen on having Henry Kissinger tried for war crimes, he’d have good reason to consider that a stupid question.

  4. The Hitchens interview is the best I’ve seen Tony Jones in recent months. Although he was better last night than tonight IMO.

    Someone suggested earlier that he take over from Red Kerry. On the strength of what I’ve seen tonight and last night, I have to agree.

  5. confessions,

    I think Tony Jones is a little too erratic. A thorough analyst like Ali Moore would be better. Tracey Bowden is a good presenter but I have no idea about how she would go as an interviewer; her dad was a great presenter but was never asked, AFAIK, to interview pollies.

  6. vp:

    Jones’ worst work is on qanda, where he gets to posture in a populist environment. In my view he does better on Lateline where he can’t appeal to a populitst audience.

    That said, I’d rather Jones than Uhlmann for 730ReportLand!

  7. Gusface,

    It is a strange thing about the Web but your hug really did make me feel better. We all make clever comments but we can take comments at face value and still realise that they may be made for “look at me” reasons. I love William’s coterie: youse are all great.

  8. This is a factual eg to Labor PBers of how Greens hurt Labor and hlp Liberals with Prefs

    Rod Hagen
    Posted Thursday, November 18, 2010 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    “Either my Green mates or my Labor mates will win the inner city city seats, GG. I don’t care which.”

    everyone knows you’re a Green , thats whose polisys you always defend incl your stated defense of greens lunatic non negot uneconamic 25% cut CC policy

    As you talking about defeating Liberals clearly you is ignorant of your Greens Partys shaby pref deelings which PROVE Greens is happy to hav a Lib Govt as long as Greens win 4 Labor seats off Labor

    Labor offered a straight 2nd pref swap accross bord in both Chambers , using your OWN criteria that wuld hav lessened th chance of a Lib Govt , Greens REJECTED it !

    that destroys your case & Greens credability who clearly happy to incr chance of a Lib Govt

    2nd Labor offer was Labor gives Greens all 2nd prefs & Greens give 2nd prefs in th 25 most marginal Labor seats , again Greens REJECTED

    why ? because Greens were tryin to do a side deel with Libs to tie up Liberal 2nd prefs favoring Greens on those 4 labor held seats !

    Greens shabby pref attempts double deeling Labor and trying secret deels with Liberals for Libs prefs now is shown as not just hypocrital , but damn rite sleezy to ASSIST th election of a Liberal Govt , just so Greens selfish can pinch 4 Labor seats

    whereas Labor ACTED with principal offering th Greens there 2nd prefs in both Chambers in all seats , so that chances of DEFEATING Ballieu’s Liberals were max ed
    Why wuld anyone would suport th Greens Party after such a sell out of left values

    (BTW irrespective of vic electon , your lots double deeling pref games hav been declared to Labor (and incident to Libs for future ref)

  9. Amazing how inconvenient evidense of Greens direct electorol damage to Labor & of pref
    assist to Libs has th same effect as CC evidence does on CC deniest , profound silence

  10. yeah Ron is is amazing, but then what can you do with closed mind fundamentalists not interesting in anything but there crusade …

  11. For reasons best known to myself, I was just flicking through an old comments thread from six months ago. Older readers might recall a commenter of that era by the name of TheTruthHurts, and his propensity for boasting about his skill at reading the financial markets. Here’s how he saw things at the time.

    [I’m buying heavily into U.S currency. 64 Cents by next month I reckon.]

  12. This is the real paradigm shift. The Govt is on a winner with the NBN.

    The days of the fixed line simply carrying the voice as its main content is over.

    The fixed line needs to be flexible, versatile, secured, robust and has the necessary capacity to carry multiple content types. That’s why we need Fibre.

    The Govt needs to explain this better to the punters.

    [More opt out of fixed lines – THE number of people ditching their fixed line telephone in favour of mobiles is bigger than thought, with just two-thirds of young Australians connecting their copper wire line when they move out of home.

    About 14 per cent of mobile phone users don’t have a fixed line telephone at home, according to a survey of 18,000 people by the Australian Communications and Media Authority.

    This is bad news for Telstra, which owns and operates the copper telephone network and has seen declining revenue from this high-margin product line. Telstra’s revenue from fixed-line rental and call tariffs has declined from about $7 billion in 2006 to $5.8 billion last financial year………….. The biggest surprise was that about 20 per cent of people aged 14 to 70 now use four types of communication – fixed line, mobile, internet and an increasing number of internet-phone users, signalling an end to the dominance of fixed telephone as the main form of communication among Australians….. As the national broadband network is built, Telstra’s copper telephone line will be decommissioned as customers are moved on to the fibre-optic network.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/more-opt-out-of-fixed-lines-20101118-17zbb.html

  13. More evidence of the winning NBN:

    [Internet picked over buses in ideal suburb – Australians value access to the internet over public transport links and schools in their ideal suburb, new research shows. Homeowners want to live in a suburb wired with the latest technology and surrounded by good restaurants more than they want access to good buses, trains or education facilities]

    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/internet-picked-over-buses-in-ideal-suburb-20101118-17xud.html

  14. [vp
    Posted Thursday, November 18, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink
    Robert Fisk and Christopher Hitchens are the must listen to, no matter what your views.]

    we must be a very uniformed family we have heard of Fiske but not the other person
    is fiske a economics forecaster.

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