Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with their primary vote down a point to 45 per cent, Labor steady on 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Supplementary questions find respondents overwhelmingly of the belief that more competition is needed in the banking sector, trusting Joe Hockey and the Liberals slightly more on the issue than Wayne Swan and Labor; attaching high importance to our relationships with the United States and perfidious New Zealand, but indifferent about Germany and South Africa; rating the influence of the United States as weakening (60 per cent) rather than strengthening (20 per cent); and supporting same-sex marriage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,198 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Trigger happy Bilbo was too quick for me to post this:

    [rnsworth Malcolm Farnsworth
    Now Joe Hockey complains to the Speaker about Parlt House lawnmowers interrupting his media appearances in the morning… #qt
    5 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

    Has His Sloppiness ever considered moving his pressers to a more quiet area ??

  2. what was the overall thought s on qt time today missed it, i didnt think it started till tomorrow.
    I notice curtis gave julia a bit of praise today said she didnt have jet lag.

  4. (Some other unfinished business from the previous thread)

    [bemusedPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 3:25 pm | PermalinkRod Hagen @ 4302

    It was Moewest who wrote this not Rod.]

    Thanks for clarifying that Frank. I was about to myself.

    Just by the way, for a valuable and highly readable account of the experiences of people at the “other end” of the communication process, the crew of one CFA truck on that day, have a look at http://69.4.229.229/~spirlei0/leishman/blogb//?p=423

    It highlights some of the structural infrastructure and communication problems, but also the immense difficulties that such situations produce in terms of developing any real idea of what is going on where. THe confusion when fighting what was essentially a losing battle can, of course, be huge.

  5. I find it interesting that although the supplementary questions identified they trust Sloppy more than Swan on banking matters, that the coalition did not garner any additional support, in fact they went down by 1 which was picked up by the Greens.

  7. TSoP,

    I would like to believe that the PH lawnmowers were exercising their democratic right to remove BS from the parliamentary lawns.

  9. [Rod HagenPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 3:45 pm | Permalink(Some other unfinished business from the previous thread)
    bemusedPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 3:25 pm | PermalinkRod Hagen @ 4302
    It was Moewest who wrote this not Rod.
    Thanks for clarifying that Frank. I was about to myself.
    Just by the way, for a valuable and highly readable account of the experiences of people at the “other end” of the communication process, the crew of one CFA truck on that day, have a look at http://69.4.229.229/~spirlei0/leishman/blogb//?p=423
    It highlights some of the structural infrastructure and communication problems, but also the immense difficulties that such situations produce in terms of developing any real idea of what is going on where. THe confusion when fighting what was essentially a losing battle can, of course, be huge.
    ]

    Re Comms issues – as aScanning enthusiest who listens to the firies here (police are encrypted digital) I can well appreciate that the radio network being under immense pressure and that radio black-holes can mean that vital messages just cannot get through. Also the CFA, DSE and MFS have different radio networks – which makes inter-agency communications an almost impossibilty.

    Hopefully the new CFA Radio networtk may solve the issues caused by Black Saturday.

  10. have any pbs just called the Pm office and told her this is what we love to see and
    hear and translate it out to the public, the lady in the office in Can, told me she had recieved a few calls in the last few minutes saying just that.

  11. Rod Hagen @ 4

    Thanks for that Rod. I will read it with interest but don’t really need convincing.

    What some people did that day was just awesome!

  17. i am not worried about any opinion polls better like this than later.
    the oppos can say what they like but they cannot do anything.
    when our long term policies are in place it will be noticed
    that the opp, are all talk

  18. “Janet Albrechtsten has written that Gillard is no role model for young women because she isn’t married with kids.” should add a Catholic to that

    then far left Julia being religous) can hav a go at her personal life & values as well
    seeing religon was what Rudd was attacked for

    then JA may thru in athiest but Editor took it out

    I well rember how influensed I was on Kevins politcal stances by his hair style , espec that grey bit and part , tho when combed back th Media quite ritely drew my attention

  19. lizzie:

    Hilarious! It reminds me of that Mr Bean episode where Mr Bean starts puckering like a fish when he sees two people kissing!

  20. [ will read it with interest but don’t really need convincing.
    What some people did that day was just awesome!]

    Co-incidentally, the first location identified on the Google maps link in the article is a few hundred metres up the road from my office, and the place where the tanker was retrieved from is almost opposite the house of a friend of mine that was burnt out in the fires (he actually photographed his house burning down and was glad that he had the photos as a reminder- now that’s fatalism!) who sadly died earlier this year from seemingly unrelated problems, though he had respiratory issues. My very close friend’s house that they lost also appears on the map, about 500 metres to the NNE of the tanker’s final resting place.

  21. For whoever asked earlier, Helen Kroger was Michael Kroger’s first wife. He subsequently married Andrew Peacock’s daughter Ann who had previously been married to Jamie Nasser the brother of Jac. Kroger and Peacock separated in 2009.
    Andrew and Michael Kroger are brothers.

  22. Miss me the last few weeks? (Been off sick … I have a sicknote from my Mum if you wanna see 😆 )

    Julia got some genuine fire in her belly in QT today — maybe the experience of APEC and G20 gave her some extra ‘confidence’ in terms of her PMship.

  23. [lso the CFA, DSE and MFS have different radio networks – which makes inter-agency communications an almost impossibilty.]

    Yes. That was something that really was appalling, I reckon, Frank. Let’s indeed hope that has been sorted out for this fire season. Its been nice and wet so far, but we accordingly have a lot more vegetation growth as a result this year, which could cause real problems if we get a long, hot , dry spell.

  24. [Re Comms issues – as aScanning enthusiest who listens to the firies here (police are encrypted digital) I can well appreciate that the radio network being under immense pressure and that radio black-holes can mean that vital messages just cannot get through. Also the CFA, DSE and MFS have different radio networks – which makes inter-agency communications an almost impossibilty]
    Frank
    Interestingly here in SA when there is a major fire a “Talk Group” frequency is allocated to that incident and all agencies – CFS, MFS, Police, Air Support, etc – work as one on that incident. Other higher level coordination takes place on another frequency.
    Our guy Euan Ferguson is now heading over to Victoria to head up the CFA. He was good value.

  26. Getting dangerously close to coming back to the topic, one thing that is very striking there is the consistency of the Liberal vote. It remains within a point of where it was 6 months, 4 weeks, 2 weeks and one week ago. The National vote actually varies much noticeably when considered proportionally, and in reality seems to be a more important factor in the total Coalition variation.

    Essential generally seems to give a very “flat” picture of things. It almost makes me wonder whether, for some reason, they actually have a “panel” of very strongly committed voters, who tend not to change as much as the general voting population.

  27. Did the discussion in the wake of the previous Essential ever arrive at a definitive reason why Essential polling has the Greens vote lower than other polls?

  28. Henry @ 4181 previous thread

    [Not that I had much in the first place but have to say I have no respect for Paul Howes.?To describe Ned Kelly as a “murderous scumbag” is just immature, inflammatory rhetoric.?Kelly was a hero to just as many who vilified him.]

    This is the view of Ned Kelly which the Victoria Police have held and maintained continuously since the events at Stringy Bark Creek.

    I have no idea what Paul Howes’ motivations or affiliations may be in this respect but the Victoria Police are always happy to have this view put out there.

    Just saying.

  30. Rod

    There was discussion which I didn’t read until this morning about the evacuation dangers.
    Our little problem is that advice is so vague, wtte “if you live in a fire danger zone (Victoria anyone?) leave early.” So where to go? One lass I heard of drove in towards Melbourne to stay with her family in safety, and that’s where one fire started.
    After Black Saturday, my family decided that our “plan” would be to “leave early” in future years, and bought a van which will take family plus dogs.
    Ther are no definitions of “fire danger zone” (OK, so any fool knows that means the Dandenongs) but as someone said previously, everyone except in the cities (Bendigo, anyone?) would be on the move. There are also very few refuges.
    I suppose we shall just have to keep driving round and round…

  31. Paul Howes
    [
    “Miserable little pamphlet”. It’s probably the best publicity a newly published author can get, especially when Piers Akerman says it.

    But, aside from that welcome plug by a conservative rat-bag, being a newly published author is a nerve-wracking experience.

    Because I want to do all I can to make sure that my book, Confessions of a Faceless Man, sells well, I’ve been doing lots of media to ensure it receives maximum publicity.

    In fact, I’ve been whoring myself about the place so much that Liberal MP Scott Morrison was probably right when he said on ABC1’s Insiders on Sunday that “I’m not going to help Paul Howes with his usual self-promotion campaign. The guy will get around in a skivvy soon and campaign to be the fifth Wiggle if it will improve his profile.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/41072.html

  32. [Interestingly here in SA when there is a major fire a “Talk Group” frequency is allocated to that incident and all agencies – CFS, MFS, Police, Air Support, etc – work as one on that incident. Other higher level coordination takes place on another frequency.]

    Part of the problem here, BK, was that even the equipment wasn’t compatible, with analogue being used by some (CFA, SES) and digital by others (MFB and Police?) . There was simply no way to access the same frequency, accordingly. As I understand the CFA won’t be getting new digital gear until next year. A new Regional Radio Dispatch Service , which was originally planned for next year, too, probably won’t be in place until 2012.

  33. [Part of the problem here, BK, was that even the equipment wasn’t compatible, with analogue being used by some (CFA, SES) and digital by others (MFB and Police?) . There was simply no way to access the same frequency, accordingly. As I understand the CFA won’t be getting new digital gear until next year. A new Regional Radio Dispatch Service , which was originally planned for next year, too, probably won’t be in place until 2012.]
    Rod
    Over here we have the GRN – Government Radio Network – which all emergency services use.

  34. [Rod HagenPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 4:31 pm | PermalinkInterestingly here in SA when there is a major fire a “Talk Group” frequency is allocated to that incident and all agencies – CFS, MFS, Police, Air Support, etc – work as one on that incident. Other higher level coordination takes place on another frequency.
    Part of the problem here, BK, was that even the equipment wasn’t compatible, with analogue being used by some (CFA, SES) and digital by others (MFB and Police?) . There was simply no way to access the same frequency, accordingly. As I understand the CFA won’t be getting new digital gear until next year. A new Regional Radio Dispatch Service , which was originally planned for next year, too, probably won’t be in place until 2012.
    ]

    Indeed that is correct – Police &MFB are Digital – the rest analogue – in theory ALL services have access to the national UHF network Ch 31-33 which were part of thne original 64 UHF National Police Network which was introduced in the wake of Cyclone Tracy. But guess what, each state’s police force now use Duiigital in different parts of the spectrum and thus defeating the original purpose.

    Motorola wining and dining the various police forces has a LOT to answer for.

  35. “Did the discussion in the wake of the previous Essential ever arrive at a definitive reason why Essential polling has the Greens vote lower than other polls?”

    must missed that , I’d think there online panel demografs is under NOW weighed in Greens

  37. [Thought you’d gone off the the States to flog a book or something 🙂

    Welcome back.]

    I wish! Unfortunately, some surgical repairs were needed — thus incommunicado — did I miss much?

  39. Ron:

    I would’ve thought the online survey would mean young people more likely to participate, and therefore a higher Green vote?

  41. Woohoo! Go Julia!

    [Ms Gillard hit back by accusing Mr Abbott of being a policy wrecker.

    “He’s showing all the political maturity of a two-year-old in a tantrum after the election,” she said.

    “It’s about time he got over it and actually started contributing to national debates.”

    Ms Gillard said she did not agree with the assessment of Mr Richardson, a man she said she had met “once in my life”.

    The Opposition called on the Government to abandon its plans for a regional detention centre in East Timor and to adopt its plans to crack down on anti-competitive behaviour from banks.

    But Ms Gillard rejected both calls and said the Coalition was divided over its banking policy.

    “I would suggest to the Leader of the Opposition perhaps the first thing he needs to do is call together the motley crew he refers to as his shadow ministry and see if they are able to articulate one position.”]

  42. [Trust all is fixed?]

    Pretty well — thanks Dong … just need some time to be fighting fit!

    Julia Gillard has certainly been fighting fit today.

    Graeme Morris is still senile, as BK says. I wonder why SKY keeps him on (unless they’re looking for comic relief?)

  47. Well I am hoping the NBN gets rolled out soon. The copper line here drops the signal almost every half an hour. Telstra have tried to say its our fault, the ISP say its definitely not theirs so we have changed equipment and ran line tests and it is definitely the line. It dropped about 3 times during QT and usually when Julia was having a go.

  48. Confessions , years ago i checked them out , not sure where found info as cann’t find it now but beleive from memorys how they work is they’ve had about a 100K online panel built up & broken up by normal sampel breakups & demografs and then online sample is done from that base by group & sub group over rolling 2 weeks periods (to smooth out movements unlike Newspoll that get imediate feedback of ‘events’) , and that base panel they’re drawing from is now prob out of kilter to greens voter incr vs what it was , and if so when they now sample from that base it wuld produce a lower greens vote outcomes than current reality

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