The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with their primary vote down a point to 45 per cent, Labor steady on 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Supplementary questions find respondents overwhelmingly of the belief that more competition is needed in the banking sector, trusting Joe Hockey and the Liberals slightly more on the issue than Wayne Swan and Labor; attaching high importance to our relationships with the United States and perfidious New Zealand, but indifferent about Germany and South Africa; rating the influence of the United States as weakening (60 per cent) rather than strengthening (20 per cent); and supporting same-sex marriage.
Dovif,
“…and tackles the extremist like the Liberals”
But they are tackling extremists like Liberals. Every single day…
The liberal party won 44 seats, LNP 21 seats, nationals 7 seats and labor won 72 seats. Labor may rely on green preferences but the libs certainly rely on national seats to have any chance to form government it now seems.
On a national level I see more in common between labor and the greens than the libs and their partners, the protectors of regional Australia, the nationals. The Nationals, yes the party that has done so much for the bush that it is now a sub branch of the liberal party.
I agree with Space Kidette. The Labor/greens alliance is a pragmatic one for both sides. It now allows labor to rediscover its social conscience and some of its traditional values and get on with government while allowing the greens the opportunity to present policy on the floor of the house.. We may not agree with all of the greens policies but at least the greens have policies. Here is a trivia question. What do the nationals stand for ?
In the reality of today both labor and liberal rely on other parties. Greens or nationals ? Take the greens anyday.
@Will/3147,
Did Kelly before getting the sack copped a feel or was it “opinionated feel”?
Doyley,
The Liberal Party only have one policy. They are the Party of ‘No’.
Gee you blokes I posted that about Beamont on page 62 feeling at bit peeved
[I watched that program last night. Interested to see Chikka go hard against a carbon price. Discovered her company is on the federal register of lobbyists as representing a cement company, and commercial construction company, which I’d reckon would be opposed to a price on carbon. Did she think to mention this? No.]
confessions – Same thing with Richardson this morning altho he was arguing for JG to do something and price carbon immediately so I guessed he had clients he was lobbying for. Must check. I really do want the disclaimers at the bottom of the screen so that we can be more alert to what the interviewees are angling for.
Frank – Sattler was a disaster here on local radio a few years ago when he was networked from Sydney. The audience dropped away pretty quickly.
[3155 John RyanPosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 4:02 pm | PermalinkGee you blokes I posted that about Beamont on page 62 feeling at bit peeved
]
Didn’t notice that – but I did post a couple of links which expanded on it.
Space Kidette @3154,
You put it so much more clearly than me. I think I must be taking too many of my ramble pills!
John,
Don’t be. It always depends on who is around at the time and if a subject is of interest to those playing at the time.
Just a posting hazard I’m afraid.
The Coalition is more than just a party of ‘No’.
They are for:
(1) $1.5 billion expenditure increase on mental health.
(2) PPL.
(3) Several billion expenditure on direct action for climate change.
(4) Putting an asylum seeker centre on Nauru.
(5) Reducing immigration to a net figure of (I seem to recall) around 180,000 pa.
(6) Continuing the war in Afghanistan.
(7) The Intervention.
(6) An NBN mediated by the market with more minimal Govt input of around $6 billion.
They are also against a number of things. But then so are Labor and the Greens.
[andrewjcrook ALERT! Barrister Roger de Robillard holed up at @getup ‘s Sydney HQ demanding to see membership records. @samuelmclean has called the cops. 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]
http://twitter.com/latikambourke/journalists
What’s this about. Is Abetz getting desperate?
[Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 4:14 pm | Permalink
The Coalition is more than just a party of ‘No’.
They are for:
(1) $1.5 billion expenditure increase on mental health.
(2) PPL.
(3) Several billion expenditure on direct action for climate change.
(4) Putting an asylum seeker centre on Nauru.
(5) Reducing immigration to a net figure of (I seem to recall) around 180,000 pa.
(6) Continuing the war in Afghanistan.
(7) The Intervention.
(6) An NBN mediated by the market with more minimal Govt input of around $6 billion.]
no wonder we dont know about these policies nothing here to feel happy about.
Gusface – way, way, way back, but I’ve been away and am slowly catching up. This must be one of the few blogs with comments in the thousands. 🙂
[SK
and when anne pops it camilla as the wife of the crown prince would normally take the role
but if willie becomes king the role goes to whatshername]
No, you are wRONg. The Princess Royal is the title given to the eldest daughter of the monarch. The next one will be years away as (a) the present one has to be deceased, and (b) William and Kate have to have a daughter and he has to be king. The one before Princess Anne was Mary, the only daughter of King George V. The present Queen never held the title as her aunt (Mary, Princess Royal and Countess of Harewood) was alive until 1965.
Sorry to be a pedant but I think I can get away with it as we are sort of related! You and me, that is, not me and KG 5! Now some other pedant can correct my grammer. 🙂
OPT
My condolences, sorry to hear the sad news.
Kiddette,
I sent it email and as to the other pber’s suggestion I will forward a copy to my local Labor member.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 3:26 pm | Permalink
Glen,
Not many.
The rule of thumb is Labor gets 80% of Greens preferenceds if directed, 70% if they run an open card and 90% if they try and preference the Libs.]
Have The Greens ever preferenced the Coalition in any state or Federal election? If so it must have been a long while back. Maybe in the Hunter region seats of NSW in 1996, when they had some silly sort of scheme simply following the order on the ballot paper?
There are two interesting pieces on Green preference flows – Antony Greens at http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/green-preferences-at-the-2007-election.html and Possum Comitatus’s at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/10/04/did-greens-htv-cards-win-labor-any-seats/
There are two interesting things that emerge.
Firstly, as Antony’s analysis shows, as The Greens vote has grown the strength of preference flow to Labor has also increase substantially.
Secondly, as Poss indicates, in places where the Greens gave an “open card” (preferencing no-one) in the 2010 federal election, prefs still flowed to Labor at almost the same rate as in those situations where they preferenced Labor straight out – Overall the difference was only 2.7%. So if we think 80% where the Greens preferenced Labor directly, the figure was about 77.3% in seats with “open” tickets.
It is a moot point whether either of these patterns will remain the case, though, especially if some in Labor in Victoria , for example, continue to spend more time attacking The Greens than they do the Coalition. Baillieu’s only real hope down here is that the increasing temper tantrums we are seeing from both Labor and The Greens about each other will result in a significant reduction in preference flow from The Greens to Labor in the regional and suburban marginals. Given the way things are panning out I suspect this will actually happen to some extent. I, for one, hope it isn’t enough to see him sneak over the line.
3166 Rod HagenPosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 5:03 pm | Permalink
[Have The Greens ever preferenced the Coalition in any state or Federal election? If so it must have been a long while back. Maybe in the Hunter region seats of NSW in 1996, when they had some silly sort of scheme simply following the order on the ballot paper?
]
Melbourne in 2010 🙂
Why dou think Adam Bandt got in ??
Looks like there is little chance of Grog getting an invite to the AWU Christmas party this year.
Those who were critical of Grog going to Paul Howes book promotion need not have worried that Grog was selling out from his normal well thought-out, impartial analysis of things.
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/
scorpio
I still maintain my previous opinion on Paul Howes. That he is young and lacks the emotional intelligence that comes with age.
I agree there Scorpio – doesn’t seem much point to reading the book if it’s as shallow as Grog has described.
OPT,
Our thoughts and best wishes have always been and are with you at this time.
I appreciate more than most, your most welcome thoughts to us even though you were going through an even more troubling time.
Your thoughtfulness and courage are to be commended.
All the best.
The Greens directed preferences to Liberal and Nationals candidates over Labor at the 1995 Queensland election in the seats of Springwood, Mansfield and Mulgrave. The only readily available results data from this election is at Psephos. Mansfield is instructive, as there were only Liberal, Labor and Greens candidates. When Greens preferences were distributed, the Liberals gained 4.8 per cent and Labor gained 4.6 per cent. However, Psephos only provides percentages for 2PP, so we don’t know about the exhaustion rate – which in any case was a lot lower back then in Queensland elections than it is now.
scorpio
well said. I second your sentiments.
victoria – I think Grog was trying to point that out to Paul H too
victoria@3169
And with his continual carryon with his *look at me* – he can never have
any claim to or expectation of loyalty to him. He will no doubt get into
the parliament at some stage, but knives await him. He has blown
any parliamentary career even before it starts.
Have the enemy, Kroger help launch his book was rubbing a turd in labors face.
I still don’t see anything *special* in him at all.
Scorps – your courage is also in our minds. Best wishes to you and yours.
Vera is still fighting her own battle and being as determined as she is, she’ll win it.
I might also point out that the Greens’ decision very clearly cost Labor the seat of Mulgrave, and if this hadn’t happened the Goss government wouldn’t have fallen after its defeat in the Mundingburra by-election six months later.
[
RT @AndrewBGreene: DPP decides not to prosecute Godwin Grech. #spill
]
http://twitter.com/latikambourke
BH
Grog’s analysis states that the book lacks “insight”.
[Melbourne in 2010
Why dou think Adam Bandt got in ??]
No Frank. You’ve got it the wrong way around. Bandt got in because the Libs preferenced The Greens. The Greens did not preference the Libs in Melbourne, or any other seat in the 2010 Federal election for that matter.
This hasn’t been mentioned on here today (funnily enough).
“Equal pay sacrificed for the sake of the budget surplus”
[Equal opportunity as a policy change process doesn’t work if the failed equal-pay commitments of our first female PM are an indicator. The government has undermined its election commitment to support the ASU equal pay case to Fair Work Australia by putting in a submission that says quite clearly that it is unlikely to provide any extra funding to the services to cover any possible increase.
This decision by the government means that the community service agencies affected by increases in award payments will be faced with reducing staff and services as they are nearly all government funded. As these provide a range of essential community and personal services, the dilemma is obviously designed to influence Fair Work Australia to not deliver wage justice and continue an unfair wage differential.
The government boasts in its submission that it has shaped this legislation to allow such cases to be brought, then undermines its own rhetoric by claiming it can’t afford to be fair. Would they do this in a male-dominated industry such as the defence forces?]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/11/19/equal-pay-sacrificed-for-the-sake-of-the-budget-surplus/
Ron @ 3111
[So Whilst Green bloggers attack me 9not care) whilst many Labor meekly sit in silense , Senor Labor peoples Lindsay Tanner , John Brumby , John Lenders , Graham Richo , John Lendors , and Bill Shorten is saying SIMILAR thing]
Ron, no one objects to a debate on policy, which is what Shorten, Richo etc are engaging in.
What is objectionable is smears, insults & threats directed against a party, which at the end of the day is in alliance with Labor at the federal level.
The two most recent examples of the Greens taking the side of Federal Labor:
– Bandt sided with Labor in the vote on the Liberal motion to immediately produce the NBN business case (Windsor, Oakeshott & Wilkie sided with the Libs)
– Bob Brown & the other Green senators also sided with Labor to vote against the Lib motion to gag Conroy until he produced the NBN business case
Seems like the DPP thought Grech had suffered enough.
[The DPP says there is evidence to prosecute Mr Grech for the unauthorised disclosure of Commonwealth information.
But after considering Mr Grech’s physical and mental health, the DPP says it has decided prosecution is not warranted.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/19/3071659.htm?section=justin
[“Equal pay sacrificed for the sake of the budget surplus”]
I didn’t hear it Adam until watching Apac this arvo when Julie Bishop was being interviewed on the story about Oz not pulling its weight in Afghanistan. When she’d finished the cameras panned to the journo who was asking questions and he was trying to decide what else to ask her.
She said wtte ‘why don’t you ask me about the equal pay and Fair Work Australia” so he did and she went on to say how she agreed it should be paid, etc. If the Oppn were in power they would be doing exactly the same thing just as they always did during their 12 years.
I think equal pay is the fair thing to do but the budget has to find the cuts to pay for it.
The new Morgan face-to-face is out.
The 2 party preferred is unchanged, but ALP is down 2 percentage points, Coalition down 0.5 percentage points, Greens up 1.5 percentage points & Others/Indies up 1 percentage point.
2PP : ALP 54%, Coalition 46%
1st pref: ALP 41%, Coalition 40%, Greens 12%, Others/Indies 7%
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4604/
[The new Morgan face-to-face is out.]
Why do they bother? I know it’s because it’s just tacked on to market research but really. 🙂
One interesting thing I noticed looking at the actual election figures, the Nationals down to 3.7% but then I realised that the Qld LNP is probably incorporated into the Libs number – makes a mess of figures, and I see Newspoll have stopped giving separate National figures.
Has anyone ever figured out why the face-to-face Morgans have about a 4% bias to Labor?
I remember Morgan years ago defending the face-to-face method but it really is out of whack for some reason.
I was concerned at the start of the labor/green alliance which helped to give labor government as to how the greens would promote their agenda and to what level they would support labor.
So far, I must say that my concerns have been pretty much unfounded. Of course there are going to be differences and politics. That is a given. Both parties are out to do what is best for them and both are out to attract voters.. But I must say I am impressed with the disclipine and pragmatism the greens have shown overall at the national level so far.
To some extent the greens have given labor some cover to revisit some policy issues such as CC and AS which in the medium term may well do labor some good.
On a national political level the world is now a different place. Everyone has to adapt. Even rusted on labor voters such as myself have to adjust.I agree with vik on this. The greens have supported labor over the last week. Yes they are playing a bit of politics and popularism on some issues but when it comes to the crunch and politics are all played out I think the greens will,on the big issues, support labor.
In the long term I do not know how the labor/green dynamic will play out but I think we should play it one bit at a time.
Now, after saying all of the above I could be wrong. On one or two issues this week I certainly have been.
Doyley
Labor and the Greens remind me of two nervous teenagers at a country dance – eventually they will talk to each other and maybe even “dance”!
Rocket @3189,
Great way to put it. As long as labor can lead!
OzPol
Our thoughts are with you OzPol. :angel:
Doyley
[Just thought i would let you know I took your advice and phoned the Canberra office of Nicola Roxon.]
Good!
I believe it will be a missed opportunity for the ALP if they don’t concentrate on the cost factors for consumers with this issue.
OzPol Tragic
Just caught up with your sad news (been on Vic sites mainly).
Condolences from us all.
Next federal election I’ll say “Win this one for the Gipper!” (and try not to imagine Ronald Reagan in the role)
Diogs,
I smell a book deal now that the AFP are not proceeding.
The telemovie might be called “The Ute Who Loved Me”.
BH,
[Scorps – your courage is also in our minds. Best wishes to you and yours.
Vera is still fighting her own battle and being as determined as she is, she’ll win it.]
PB has been a part of my life for more than four years now and Vera has been part of the heart & soul of PB for that time.
My thoughts are with her and her family every day also and I get a little thrill when I see Vera post a few comments here. Especially when they contain her normal fire & passion that marks her out as somebody special.
Vera, we miss you.
Doyley
I was thinking about this in the context of the Country Party and the UAP. Their bickering set them back and gave Labor “free kicks” in the early 1940s. Eventually they had to come to grips with each other’s continued existence (well the UAP had gone by then and it was the Liberals). In Victoria there were minority Labor governments who ruled with Country Party support.
[2PP : ALP 54%, Coalition 46%
1st pref: ALP 41%, Coalition 40%, Greens 12%, Others/Indies 7% ]
Now if only the rest of the polls could regularly record figures like this.
We would then know that the natural order of things had returned.
There would be a good chance of that too if the likes of Howes, Richardson, et al could crawl back in their respective holes!
New thread.