Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with their primary vote down a point to 45 per cent, Labor steady on 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Supplementary questions find respondents overwhelmingly of the belief that more competition is needed in the banking sector, trusting Joe Hockey and the Liberals slightly more on the issue than Wayne Swan and Labor; attaching high importance to our relationships with the United States and perfidious New Zealand, but indifferent about Germany and South Africa; rating the influence of the United States as weakening (60 per cent) rather than strengthening (20 per cent); and supporting same-sex marriage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,198 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Fiz

    It’s not a good look for someone advocating “austerity measures” which seems to be the new weasel phrase for cuts in standard of living.

  2. Space Kidette and madcyril:
    I wonder if the LibDems are still happy that they hitched their wagon to the Tory horse. I suspect it won’t be the Tories that pay dearly in public opinion – they’re expected to be callous asses. The LibDems sure don’t seem so cuddly these days though.

  3. Precisely Diogenes. But if the right have one thing, it’s a bloody great hide! Strangely, they also seem to get away with it quite regularly, hence why it won’t be the Tories that pay the price.

  4. Mind boggling! Iain Duncan Smith is the Work and Pensions Secretary. He used this information to justify cuts to the housing benefit.

    Benefit policy based on figures culled from web

    Iain Duncan Smith misled Parliament by passing off figures from a property comparison website owned by the Daily Mail as official government figures.

    In a parliamentary debate, the Work and Pensions Secretary claimed that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found that private sector rents had fallen by 5 per cent last year. At the same time he claimed the amount local authorities paid to private landlords had risen by 3 per cent.

    But, in fact, the ONS does not collect such statistics and the figures he quoted came from the website findaproperty.com owned by Daily Mail publisher Associated Newspapers.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/benefit-policy-based-on-figures-culled-from-web-2138178.html

  5. madcyril:

    So LibDem voters aren’t happy then?

    I watched PMQs when it was on APAC earlier. Labour were focusing on Cameron’s planned cuts to the police services, trying to get him to commit to not cutting front line police officers. It certainly sounds as though things aren’t going so well over there.

  6. I’d be curious to know exactly what the Liberal Democrats are achieving out of their coalition with the Conservatives. Have they won any significant concessions?

  7. madcyril:
    Poor polling on the LibDems doesn’t surprise me at all. Like I said, voters expect the Tories to be vicious. The LibDems would have been expected to curtail the Tories’ worst excesses, but apparently they’re just there to make up the numbers and cop the flak. I have no idea why they are continuing on with this instead of actually using the power granted to them by voters.

  8. Labor PBers is getting left behind Senior Labor figures exposing th Greens hyocracy against Labor 7 there non econamic skills , following Fed Labor Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner , Vic Labor Premier John Brumby , Vic Labor Tresurer John Lenders , recent Graham Richo , last weeks Fed Labor Secetary Jogn Lenders , and latest Fed Labor Asistant Teasuer Bill Shorten

    Bill Shorten, the Federal labor Assistant Treasurer, says:”

    “The final question for us all when considering the Greens has got to be; “What would they do in office?

    At generous best they are the mystery bet of Australian politics. At hard headed worst they are the political party that would cut living standards rather than raise them. For example the Greens have made billions in unfunded promises in the Victorian election on November 27th.

    “Labor has a nation building record with a commonsense yet optimistic vision for the future. Yet none of these adjectives could apply to the extreme Green promises we are now hearing in Victoria.”

    ‘ Shorten’s current decision not to resile from those views but to go further is significant. He is dedicated to better standards of living for working families. Note his use of the words “commonsense” and “optimistic” as applied to Labor economic policy.
    His assessment of the Greens is blunt; they are NEITHER.’

    ALP National Secretary and campaign director, Karl Bitar addressed the National Press Club. Bitar said

    ‘Bob Brown’s broader economic agenda had to be exposed and it was the job of Labor before the next election to do that.He left hanging the question of whether or not that would mean Labor attack ads during the 2013 election directed not only AT the Coalition but also the Greens ‘

    Graham Richardson:

    “ Why doesn’t the government cost all of the Greens policies, lift the veil on the totality of their platform and expose what a joke Australia would be if the Greens actually got to govern the country “

    one very foundaton of Greens popularism lies against Labor steeling is promising th world based on Greens econamic vandalism

    So Whilst Green bloggers attack me 9not care) whilst many Labor meekly sit in silense , Senor Labor peoples Lindsay Tanner , John Brumby , John Lenders , Graham Richo , John Lendors , and Bill Shorten is saying SIMILAR thing

  9. [ Labor are currently at least level pegging the Tories or beating them]
    Swap the sides around and check the blog above – not much different to here in terms of poll results for the two main parties, and the Greens have dropped off as well. My take is it is more about cycles and what Govts do in their first year or so, rather than a true reflection of the long term polls…. on both sides of the planet.

  10. [RT @karlbitar: The next Australian Labor National Conference will be on 2, 3 & 4 December 2011 @ the Sydney Convention Centre #auspol]

    This is a good time to have it. The State ALP Conferences will probably have been held and the issue of Gay Marriage will have been debated and the results will then be brought up at National Conference. Qld is having one in 2011, I am not sure of the other states.

  11. Puff
    [I sent this email to Nicola Roxan parliamentary office. (is that the best place?)
    I will let pb’ers know of the reply.]

    Can I suggest you cc your own Federal MP when sending emails and letters to Ministers, then they both will have a chance to respond and even maybe speak to each other about the issues.

    If you MP is not ALP then perhaps include the ALP Duty Senator for your Electorate.

  12. [Senator Xenophon told the Herald he wants a Productivity Commission inquiry into the network. He also wants the social benefits examined.]

    Given that there are many benefits (social, economic etc) to come from the NBN that are simply unknown at this point, is this even possible?

  13. [She also had this thing about not giving pain relief to people in her hospice. They died in agony.]

    Dio@3083 I was screamed at for saying this at a dinner party – mentioned that when was sick she had pain relief in a better type hospital. We were never invited again and OH said ‘ Iwish you’d said that before and we wouldn’t have had to suffer them for so long’.

    All the time I thought I was going only to please him!!

  14. [whateverpediaPosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 10:16 am | PermalinkIt’s starting to sound like it’s going to be the 7.30 comedy sketch rather than the 7.30 report
    If it’s done properly that might be a good thing.
    Viewers of Stewart/Colbert in the US are better informed than every other “news” source.
    I’m not sure if they are better informed because they watch these two, or they watch these two because they’re better informed. Chicken and egg?
    Discuss.
    ]

    But wait, there is more bad news – Their ABC have lost the FTA rights to both Colbert & Stewart to Foxtel.

    Was there pressure from Mark Scott not to agressively try and retain the rights ?

  15. BH,

    Reminds me of a time where my husband and I were talking to this girl at a night club. My husband politely bought her drinks all night. I went of to the toilet and my husband bumped into me on the way back.

    In the quick chat we had we discovered that he didn’t know her and I didn’t know her – and neither of us liked her. We just left!

  16. Diogs,

    Overland is right to be peeved about the AFP entering the arrangement. The newpaper would always try to push the boundaries of any agreement which is what happened here. I reckon both the AFP and News had a duty of care towards the Vic Police which was diluted due to an inter police jurisdictional pissing contest and the commerical interests of news to publish asap.

  17. [Greensborough GrowlerPosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 3:12 pm | PermalinkDiogs,
    Overland is right to be peeved about the AFP entering the arrangement. The newpaper would always try to push the boundaries of any agreement which is what happened here. I reckon both the AFP and News had a duty of care towards the Vic Police which was diluted due to an inter police jurisdictional pissing contest and the commerical interests of news to publish asap.
    ]

    But do you note that Dio is upset that his preferrred propaganda organ of choice is being given a well deserving bollocking ? 🙂

  18. I really feel the love between the ALP and the Green

    It reminded me of the love between One Nation and the Coalition

    Both One Nation and the Greens being extremist with stupid, radical policies

    The only difference is that the Coalition had convictions and cease giving One Nation oxygen and One Nation went away

    Unfortunity the ALP does not have such convictions… most ALP faceless hacks only cared about winning election, and not what they should stand for. Most of them through the Greens was a good thing, since the Greens help gets the ALP …. now that the ALP are forced to rely on the Greens to do anything and are left with just 30-35% of votes…. they are now panicking….. if only they had some conviction to begin with and tackles the extremist like the Liberals

  19. [The only difference is that the Coalition had convictions and cease giving One Nation oxygen and One Nation went away]

    dovif, the coalition made One Nation more or less irrelevant by simply adopting ever more of their policies. THey look more like them every election!

  20. Diogs,

    I’d also add that The Australian has been running a bizaree vendetta against Overland ever since for having the temerity to criticise their methods.

  21. dovif

    The difference is the ALP MUST have Green preferences to win seats (the majority of them they dont win until preferences are distributed). That is why they are locked in to supporting the mellons despite their radical agenda.

    I wonder how many seats Labor would lose if the Greens directed their preferences elsewhere???

  22. Love ’em or Hate ’em, the Government have no choice but to work with them and give their policies air. They don’t have to vote with them, but if the price of governing is allowing their bills to go before the House, then so be it.

    Personally, I don’t see the Labor party adopting green policies I just see them as allowing the greens to put up the bills and letting the floor decide, while continuing to adhere to their own policies.

  23. Glen,

    Not many.

    The rule of thumb is Labor gets 80% of Greens preferenceds if directed, 70% if they run an open card and 90% if they try and preference the Libs.

  24. Watched Sky at lunctime and saw Geoff Gallop (former Labor WA Premier) with Speers, Gerard Henderson, Chikarovski and Rhiannon.

    He’s a good Labor bloke and I wish he was in the Fed. Parliament. No bagging from him a la Richardson, etc. but just good constructive chat and positives where they were due.

  25. BH:

    I watched that program last night. Interested to see Chikka go hard against a carbon price. Discovered her company is on the federal register of lobbyists as representing a cement company, and commercial construction company, which I’d reckon would be opposed to a price on carbon. Did she think to mention this? No.

  26. GG

    The bottom line is the OO knew when the raid was and they knew that the paper hit the streets before the raid. They have no excuse for putting the operation and lives at risk. The AFP needs to have a good look at itself as well.

    Overland and the Vic police deserve better than that whitewash.

  27. [Fairfax Radio general manager Graham Mott, who is sweeping through the talkback station following Kelly’s sacking in a push to boost ratings, said the morning show would take on a more opinionated feel next year.]

    Oh, great.

  28. [BHPosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 3:38 pm | PermalinkThe great purge at 6PR continues
    Frank is 6PR a commercial station or ABC? What is wrong with the presenters – too balanced?
    ]

    Commercial – sister station to 2UE & 3AW – which I’m thinking they want 6PR to move to – or maybe like 2GB more rabid.

  29. [3147 William BowePosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 3:42 pm | PermalinkFairfax Radio general manager Graham Mott, who is sweeping through the talkback station following Kelly’s sacking in a push to boost ratings, said the morning show would take on a more opinionated feel next year.
    Oh, great.
    ]

    Shorter Graham Mott – All Sattler, All the Time 🙂

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