Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with their primary vote down a point to 45 per cent, Labor steady on 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Supplementary questions find respondents overwhelmingly of the belief that more competition is needed in the banking sector, trusting Joe Hockey and the Liberals slightly more on the issue than Wayne Swan and Labor; attaching high importance to our relationships with the United States and perfidious New Zealand, but indifferent about Germany and South Africa; rating the influence of the United States as weakening (60 per cent) rather than strengthening (20 per cent); and supporting same-sex marriage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,198 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 9:43 pm | PermalinkFrank
    You just regurgitate the Kool-Aid from Labor headquarters and cry when anyone disagrees.
    ]

    As opposed to you who regurgitates News Ltd and Fairytales and you get caught out EVERY time.

  13. See that big shiny building over there, made of ground workers’ bones, tears of the miserable and all bound together with neo-con bullbutter? That is Fiberal HQ, Edifice of the Orifice; throw yer rocks at that!

  18. Fess, i am Spartacus. they stole this from PB

    [When Paul Chambers was arrested and fined for posting a jocular message to micro-blogging site Twitter in which he threatened to blow up northern England’s Robin Hood Airport if it didn’t reopen in time for his flight, it caused a minor stir.

    Now that a court has turned down his appeal, the internet has come alive with outrage, with thousands of online fans posting comic threats to the regional airport out of solidarity.

    Many have added the tag “IAmSpartacus” to their posts – a reference to the Stanley Kubrick’s 1960 epic Spartacus, in which the titular hero’s fellow rebels all assume his identity in a gesture of solidarity.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/online-outrage-after-judgement-of-twitter-airport-bomb-threat-joke-20101115-17t68.html

  19. [Dee
    Posted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 8:29 pm | Permalink
    Oh dear!
    Has anyone heard the latest on the Wild Rivers Legislation? Just how much did these miners cough up for the Coalition?

    Mr Walker says Mr Abbott’s speech shows he more concerned about mining industry access to Cape York.

    “It was extraordinary – Tony Abbott has basically announced and admitted that this bill is about allowing bauxite and sandmining on Cape York,” he said.]

    dee was this from a msm link, many people in qld really respected Steve Irwin so i beleive, from i read , so this would not go down well in qld do you think?

  21. scorps

    Those are three great articles.

    Howes has managed to usurp Massola’s title of “most hated person on the internet” in impressive time.

  22. [93 Dee]
    Posted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

    gosh dee read all that nice to see. but brown could take a lesson from nick mckim here
    he doesnt try to please every one and is seeing what its like to be in gov.
    Sen. brown should ask nick for some guidence at this point of time any way the gov,. with the greens is working well

  23. my say @169,

    I really think Abbott will lose the politics on this one.

    Traditional owners, environmental groups and Teri Urwin will have too much for him on this issue.

    If Abbott has grabbed this to give himself some relevance and MSM coverage then he has read this wrong and made a big mistake.

    There is no way labor and the greens will let this through anyway.

  24. [173 Doyley
    Posted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 10:14 pm | Permalink
    my say @169,

    I really think Abbott will lose the politics on this one]

    yes very very surprised he would go with this one. i think most australians realise that our conservation efforts over the last few years cannot be turned backwards,
    it would be a bit like mining sand on Frazer island again cannot not see that ever happening or, damming more rivers in tas, that will never happen either.

    This may be his undoing in Qld do you think?

  26. did any one find the link today where hockey says he cannot support the greens legislation re the banks, i thought hockey would be thrilled with the greens legislation.

  27. Diogenes,

    [Howes has managed to usurp Massola’s title of “most hated person on the internet” in impressive time.]

    There’s something about Paul Howes that I don’t get.

    Either all this is related to some ingenious long term strategy that will see Howes achieve his long term ambitions and lead to bigger and greater glories, or, he’s too vain and stupid to see that he is making an absolute galah of himself and too thick skinned to realise that we are all aware of it also.

    I think the second scenario is closer to the mark.

  28. My Say , that Brandt proposal is econamic madness , funds start freezing up for people to borrow from banks and asset bubble created , and busts day after freeze

    suspect Joe ois jealous someone else is copying his bank bashing popularisms , that does go down well in voter land , initialy Gorging is in mortagae creidtcard finance & somewhat in small buss loans

  29. [175 DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 10:21 pm | PermalinkThis may be his undoing in Qld do you think?
    What do the Qlders think about it?
    It certainly doesn’t rate a mention in SA.
    ]
    Only cos it diesn’t mention your heroine Christine Nixon 🙂

  31. scorps

    It’s definitely the latter.

    If I was in the AWU, I’d want to know why he’s pimping around on a massive self-indulgent toss-fest on absolutely anything except his actual job.

  32. my say, as I said before, Hockey made a error in going after the banks, because the path he was pursuing was much more a Greens policy. So now the Greens have the legislation and he is caught with his pants down.

    I wonder whether this will secure his shadow treasury position after all

  33. dio S.A is a long long way from qld and Tasmania is even further
    but tell a tasmanian that there is going to be another dam here and see how many qlders would know about it or may be care.

    But i do think we should care and lot of people do i know i was very upset when i heard about it. We need to get Stephen Fry to australia to do a conservation type program the one he is doing now has held my attention like no other.

    but in federal politics its enough for the stake holders in the state of qld to know about it thats all that matters as its such a large state with lots of electorates that are lib.
    But then again i dont know anything about the people of North Qld, would they be upset by this only the people who live in the area could tell us but i feel they would be as tourisim is very big up that way.

  34. dio S.A is a long long way from qld and Tasmania is even further
    but tell a tasmanian that there is going to be another dam here and see how many qlders would know about it or may be care.

    But i do think we should care and lot of people do i know i was very upset when i heard about it. We need to get Stephen Fry to australia to do a conservation type program the one he is doing now has held my attention like no other.

    but in federal politics its enough for the stake holders in the state of qld to know about it thats all that matters as its such a large state with lots of electorates that are lib.
    But then again i dont know anything about the people of North Qld, would they be upset by this only the people who live in the area could tell us but i feel they would be as tourisim is very big up that way.

  36. Abbott’s ability to flat out lie eclipses that of any politician I can recall. His argument re the wild rivers was about the rights of indigenous people. It is clearly about mining access. Didnt we discover many years ago with the Franklin that australians care about protecting the environment?

  37. Diogenes,

    [ This may be his undoing in Qld do you think?

    What do the Qlders think about it?

    It certainly doesn’t rate a mention in SA. [

    This issue is like a number of others that are meant to play out to specific audiences. Queensland voters, like SA ones are not the target audience for this.

    Most here would be unaware of Abbott’s current moves. He tried it on as a vote grabber during the election and it was ignored here.

    This Legislation has been in force here for a number of years now and was not controversial to any degree then and isn’t now.

  40. As an aside, I posted a week or so ago about my problems with an email spam virus in my pc, and how once I fixed it, I got a phone call from someone offering to ‘fix’ my problem. (Of course I refused.)

    Well this UK article reveals they have whole call-centres running this remote access scam.
    Scum!
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11754487

  41. [Howes has managed to usurp Massola’s title of “most hated person on the internet” in impressive time.]

    I intend going through his Sunday Telegraph columns this year to see just how many relate to the labour/union movement or worker rights. I’m betting these are in the minority, and instead he’s been using his column to flog himself, his book, and anti Rudd rants. Anything except advancing the cause of the AWU.

  42. Ron,

    [Scorp

    i wondered about howes , as his movesespec TV appears and his book is like someone wanting t get expelled from alp ]

    He’d certainly not be greatly missed by too many true Labor supporters if he found succour & comfort with the greens, Ron.

  43. [I wonder whether this will secure his shadow treasury position after all]

    i thought it was all very strange as the liberal are the big business party
    suppose he thought it sounded good at the time made people feel good.
    today i went to re invest some money and the banks are still only offering for two months what they offered before this rate rise so i am cross at the rate not being higher so its hard to please every one you will never do that and Hockey should learn from this.
    i wrote to him and told him that not every one has a mortgage and there is some of us trying to recover from the gfc he said never happened , of course i had no reply.

    off to the land of nod i am always more weary in daylight saving time sounds silly i suppose, the days are longer so i think its just that we do more,

  44. Diogenes @175,

    I live in Brisbane and so far I don’t think it has really rated with the public down here. Not too much has been reported in the CM but, what has, always mentions Abbott and Noel Pearson together as if Pearson speakes for all traditional owners in the Cape.

    However I think it will start to pick up now Terri Urwin has started to comment and environmental groups are starting to make some noise. There is also a grassroots movement starting here regarding LPG projects and the effect they may have on the environment and farming. How far the CM will go will be interesting but I think Abbott has picked a loser.

    There is no way the indies and the greens will support the legislation before the review is completed early next year. I would be surprised if labor supported it at all with its environmental implications and from a pragmatic political angle.

    I really have no idea what Abbott thought he would gain from this apart from trying to get some attention. I think he really has made a mistake here.

  45. my say,

    [dio S.A is a long long way from qld and Tasmania is even further
    but tell a tasmanian that there is going to be another dam here and see how many qlders would know about it or may be care. ]

    There was a lot of noise from up this way over the Franklin and has been over clear-felling of old growth forests also.

    Many of us up here are well aware of issues outside Qld and I can assure you, we do care.

  46. [Diogenes
    Posted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 10:31 pm | Permalink
    my say

    It really is a local matter and should have remained as such until Abbott saw an opportunity for some publicity.]

    yes i had not thought about it in that way very true, it would be like him coming down here and telling us to do away with one of our national parks and rain forests
    what s Anna Bligh saying about it, i can imagine our premier would tell him to go back to Canberra. i have nt much about what the qld premier has said has she said anything.

  47. [felling of old growth forests also.

    Many of us up here are well aware of issues outside Qld and I can assure you, we do care.]

    thats really encouraging to know, sometimes i think it would take an earthquake for north islanders to even know we are on the map.

  48. [I really have no idea what Abbott thought he would gain from this apart from trying to get some attention. I think he really has made a mistake here.]

    wasnt it during the elcection , he was out on a boat fishing i think, may have been one of those things he thought sounded good at the time.

  49. confessions

    Go through Howes’ twitters and there is almost nothing on the AWU or anything to do with union activities. It’s all self-promotion and spouting off. If he wants to do that he should become a pollie or join PB.

    And then compare that with Ged Kearney of the ACTU who tweets almost exclusively about union matters.

  50. Diogenes,

    [If I was in the AWU, I’d want to know why he’s pimping around on a massive self-indulgent toss-fest on absolutely anything except his actual job. ]

    I was a member of the AWU for almost 30 years and I can assure you the rank & file as well as most of the Officials of the Union would not be impressed one little bit.

    Don’t be surprised to see Mr Howes undergoing a career change sooner rather than later IMO!

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