Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with their primary vote down a point to 45 per cent, Labor steady on 39 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Supplementary questions find respondents overwhelmingly of the belief that more competition is needed in the banking sector, trusting Joe Hockey and the Liberals slightly more on the issue than Wayne Swan and Labor; attaching high importance to our relationships with the United States and perfidious New Zealand, but indifferent about Germany and South Africa; rating the influence of the United States as weakening (60 per cent) rather than strengthening (20 per cent); and supporting same-sex marriage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,198 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Oh dear!
    Has anyone heard the latest on the Wild Rivers Legislation? Just how much did these miners cough up for the Coalition?
    [Mr Walker says Mr Abbott’s speech shows he more concerned about mining industry access to Cape York.

    “It was extraordinary – Tony Abbott has basically announced and admitted that this bill is about allowing bauxite and sandmining on Cape York,” he said.

    “He said that these are the only developments that are being stopped by Wild Rivers and this is why he’s introducing his bill.

    “It’s quite extraordinary that Tony Abbott is going to such lengths to support destructive mining on Cape York.

    “Tony Abbott wants to make sure that Cape Alumina can go in and destroy the Steve Irwin Wildlife Reserve on Steve Irwin Day.]

  2. In defence of the ALP Same-Sex Marriage (I support it) is not a straight forward issue. the ALP has a broad range of groups, some of which are very conservate.

    It was for this reason that the ALP gave us the White Australia Policy for it has this under pinning conservate value and many newer Australians share many of its traits.

    I would say to those wanting the ALP to embrace same-sex marriage, need to win the debate by highlighting the positive effercts that it will bring to the institution of marriage.

    As Bill Shorten said on Q & A in 20 years time people will look back and say what was the big deal.

    I firmlyy believe the best think to do is build the support within the ALP just as Hawke and Keaking and Whitlam all did for their big ideas.

  3. Poor sloppy. Because the weather in Canberra has been quite unseasonable and is shaping up to be the wettest year on record, the place is overgrown with long grass and the lawn mowing contractors are way behind schedule and working overtime to catch up. It’s an unusual situation and sloppy is just being a big sook to raise it in Parliament.

  9. What is it about APEC?

    * In 1993, PJK called Dr. Mahathir of Malaysia as “recalcitrant” for refusing to attend the APEC Summit and almost started a war berween Australia and Malaysia.

    * In 2007, Howard almost got rolled by the chicken hearted Ministers and the equally ball-less Costello. Rudd got up and spoke Mandarin to Dr. Hu and stamped himself as the future PM. Not to mention the Chaser Boys stole the whole show.

    * and Now 2010:

    [JULIA Gillard is growing in confidence on the world stage and rapidly building rapport with her peers as she darts between global summits.

    Dogged by perceptions of not performing well on her first trip to Asia, compared with Kevin Rudd and suffering from an admission she wasn’t “passionate” about foreign policy, the Prime Minister has done well in the world summits at Seoul and Yokohama.

    Gillard has built a personal rapport with US President Barack Obama, unambiguously stated Australia’s position on having troops in Afghanistan, reinforced the primacy of the US relationship, made progress on free trade talks with South Korea, balanced contact between China and Japan and unashamedly pushed for even more free trade.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/julia-blossoms-on-diplomatic-stage/story-e6frg6zo-1225953477703

    This could be the turning point for Gillard PMship. You can tell from today’s QT that she is growing in confidence and slapping down Abbott.

    Before long, Abbott needs a new 3 word slogan:

    STOP JULIE GILLARD!!!!

  10. Frank

    [Out of how many surveyed ??

    Until the issue is decided at the ALP Conference it is the status quo.

    Deal with it.]

    It was the ER Report today so 1037 responses.

    The ALP is out step with it’s own voters and the voters in general.

  13. Until the issue is decided at the ALP Conference it is the status quo.

    Deal with it.

    The ALP is out step with it’s own voters and the voters in general.

    Frank’s attitude really is unbelievable …

    He seems to imagine Australia to be Soviet Russia & himself as a KGB enforcer.

    If any of us dares to voice opinions contrary to the ALP “party line” then he’ll take us out behind the tool shed & put a bullet in our heads.

  15. Dee @ 101:

    This is why I want Tone’s bill referring through the committee process. Let’s see which communities actually want the legislation overturned, and which don’t. Same goes for traditional owners. Who did Tone ‘consult’ and meet with as part of developing his bill?

    Let the sun shine in!

  16. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 8:51 pm | PermalinkFrank
    Out of how many surveyed ??
    Until the issue is decided at the ALP Conference it is the status quo.
    Deal with it.
    It was the ER Report today so 1037 responses.
    The ALP is out step with it’s own voters and the voters in general.
    ]

    Umm, 1037 people I wouldn’t regard as a representative sample of the ENTIRE community.

    Quit while your behind before your reqquire another surgical rearaangement of a certain orifice.

  18. [vikPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 8:59 pm | PermalinkUntil the issue is decided at the ALP Conference it is the status quo.
    Deal with it.
    The ALP is out step with it’s own voters and the voters in general.
    Frank’s attitude really is unbelievable …
    He seems to imagine Australia to be Soviet Russia & himself as a KGB enforcer.
    If any of us dares to voice opinions contrary to the ALP “party line” then he’ll take us out behind the tool shed & put a bullet in our heads.
    ]

    diddums.

    So only the political elites like you and O Dio Mio can post here ??

    I’m not the one displaying KGB tactics.

  19. Should’ve added , whilst panel mix may need change , it may take time to restucture given its nature , and also that voting situation is also fluid

  20. [Umm, 1037 people I wouldn’t regard as a representative sample of the ENTIRE community.

    Quit while your behind before your reqquire another surgical rearaangement of a certain orifice.]

    Can someone explain to Frank about statistics, polling and margin of error?

  22. Gus

    You’d kind of hope that someone on a psephology site would have some idea about polling methods, samples, statistics and their analysis. Is that too much to hope for?

  23. Vik,

    [Frank’s attitude really is unbelievable …

    He seems to imagine Australia to be Soviet Russia & himself as a KGB enforcer.

    If any of us dares to voice opinions contrary to the ALP “party line” then he’ll take us out behind the tool shed & put a bullet in our heads.]

    It’s good that you finally understand how the system works. It’s far easier for those that conform to the accepted norm.

    Those like Dio who continue to buck the system are destined to continual and well deserved derision, for refusing to conform to the required standards! 😉

  24. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 9:12 pm | PermalinkGus
    You’d kind of hope that someone on a psephology site would have some idea about polling methods, samples, statistics and their analysis. Is that too much to hope for
    ]

    Bollocks 🙂

    Give a referendum on the issue rtather than a snapshot.

    You lost the last debate – you will lose this one.

    Stick to glorified butchery.

  25. Frank

    [Umm, 1037 people I wouldn’t regard as a representative sample of the ENTIRE community.]

    Can you explain what you mean by a “representative sample” and how it relates to the number 1037?

    Please demonstrate your ignorance for us.

  26. scorps

    [Those like Dio who continue to buck the system are destined to continual and well deserved derision, for refusing to conform to the required standards! 😉 ]

    It is thought “reform through blogging”. With any luck, Frank will have a relative who once did statistics at high school so he can regale us with his expertise and overturn a couple of hundred years of probability theory in one post.

  27. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 9:20 pm | Permalinkscorps
    Those like Dio who continue to buck the system are destined to continual and well deserved derision, for refusing to conform to the required standards!
    It is thought “reform through blogging”. With any luck, Frank will have a relative who once did statistics at high school so he can regale us with his expertise and overturn a couple of hundred years of probability theory in one post.
    ]

    As opposed being a Jack of all trades and a master of none.

    aka a Bullshit artist.

  28. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 9:17 pm | PermalinkFrank
    Umm, 1037 people I wouldn’t regard as a representative sample of the ENTIRE community.
    Can you explain what you mean by a “representative sample” and how it relates to the number 1037?
    Please demonstrate your ignorance for us.
    ]

    No, you just described every single post you make.

  29. [Can someone explain to Frank about statistics, polling and margin of error?]

    Diog, yes, i will:

    Statictics – wRONg

    Polling – wRONg

    Margin of Error – wRONg

    Frank, is that clear?

  30. [As opposed being a Jack of all trades and a master of none.

    aka a Bullshit artist.

    No, you just described every single post you make]

    So in summary you actually have no idea what a representative sample is. You should look these big words up before you use them.

  32. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 9:29 pm | PermalinkAs opposed being a Jack of all trades and a master of none.
    aka a Bullshit artist.
    No, you just described every single post you make
    So in summary you actually have no idea what a representative sample is. You should look these big words up before you use them
    ]

    Finns has described perfectly.

    There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

    oh and you are wRONg.

  36. Frank

    It is just pathetic that someone on a psephological site is so grossly and aggressively ignorant of even the merest basics of psephology.

    I propose William sets a minimum standard of psephological knowledge for posting on this site. 😀

  39. [However, websites like Twitter, and news sites which encourage readers comments, are making it easier than ever before for the deranged and the insane (and rarely, the completely lucid) to say whatever they like about whoever they want.]

    Have to agree with this comment by Paul Howes. Must be an avid reader of PB! 😉

  44. [However, websites like Twitter, and news sites which encourage readers comments, are making it easier than ever before ]

    He may have a point with twitter. But comments left at our MSM news sites are all moderated. If Howes cares about courteous comments left at these sites he should take it up with the relevent proprietors.

  46. [GusfacePosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 9:34 pm | PermalinkI propose William sets a minimum standard of psephological knowledge for posting on this site
    Dio, you just ruled yourself out]

    You beat me to it. 🙂

  47. Finns and Gus

    I didn’t actually mean that William would toss anyone who knew what addition was, but I should have anticipated your answers. 😛

  49. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 15, 2010 at 9:33 pm | PermalinkFrank
    It is just pathetic that someone on a psephological site is so grossly and aggressively ignorant of even the merest basics of psephology.
    I propose William sets a minimum standard of psephological knowledge for posting on this site.
    ]

    Congratulations on being the first person to qualify under Bilbo’s new rule 🙂

    At least I provide information on matters other than jst polling.

    You just provide stuff for the Garden bed.

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