Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. victoria @3571,

    I read that as well.

    I usually find Pascoe balanced and pragmatic in his articles.

    However, I can’t understand his regular rants against the NBN.

    I think the libs and a number of commentators ignore the fact that the NBN co. has Mike Quigley in charge, a very astute businessman and industry expert. He has surrounded himself with very astute and experienced business people and industry experts.

    From what I have seen and heard of Mr Quigley I doubt very much he would agree to any course of action that he did not consider in the best interests of the company and without due dilligence being undertaken.

    The NBN business plan is, I believe, to be presented to the board today and I have no doubt it will be a very indepth, comprehensive document. It will be given to Conroy after the board meeting ( I am sure he knows anyway).

    Nothing that Mr Quigley undertakes would be left to chance so with the release of the plan in the coming days/weeks and the implementation report released earlier this year I would be surprised if Turnbull has much in his favour.

    Turbull v Conroy and if necessary Quigley is I believe a mismatch. I think Turnbull has overestimated his expertise in this issue, a failing which he has displayed previously.

    Turnbull is calling for a business plan from the NBN co. which is now ticked by Labor and he is also calling for a cost benefit analysis which has been ticked already with the implementation report.

    I really cannot see any necessity for the Productivity Commission to get involved apart from some attempt by Turnbull to showcase his business acumen.

    The indies have already had extensive consultation with Quigley and I am sure they will listen to his take on this issue very seriously before making any decision.

  2. lizzie

    when truthy was around, there was a suggestion that it was Bolt. Maybe truthy and GeeWizz get their daily nutrients via Bolt and then spew it on this forum

  4. victoria

    good thought. Jumping from the general to the particular to break up the logic of a discussion is very Boltish.
    I’m not happy with the constant insults thrown around. At least Bolt is polite – sorta.

  6. Doyley

    at the end of his piece, he says it might prove to be a worthwhile investment. Or not.

    He is having a bet each way.

  10. [I didn’t read their names out and use THEIR names to make MY political points.]

    No, instead you verballed their families by dishonestly saying that the families were all opposed to a withdrawal when even publicly available information makes it patently clear that they are not all of this view.

    Whizzer, Wilkie spent twenty years in the Australian Army, in the Infantry, before he became an intelligence analyst with ONA. Don’t you think he might be a little better qualified to make judgements about such matters than you? Don’t you think he may, in fact, thereby have earned the right to express his respects in the fashion which he chose to do?

  13. [“But the bottom line is that the Federal Government can’t change the GST arrangements without the agreement of all the states and we certainly won’t be agreeing to any of that.”]

    Poor deluded WA Minister. The GST is imposed by an act of the Federal Parliament. If this Parliament decides to change their law they can and will. The States can whistle dixie. 😛

  14. ru,

    You’ve jumped to the end of the book.

    Will the WA Government cop the blame for increasing the GST to 12-13% or will they buckle and impose a super tax on the Miners clearly on struggle street.

  17. GeeWizz @ 3576

    [Utter rubbish.

    The emperor was terrified the next A-Bomb would be on his house.

    Pretty hard to hide from an atomic bomb explosion.]

    Oh, For Dawkins Sake!

    It’s bad enough having to scroll past your inane drivel when it comes to your usual regurgitation of Coalition talking points and other Howard hugging propaganda, but now we have your intrusion into the realms of real history, as opposed to the Liberal delusions under which you currently suffer?

    Give us a break, and stick to your usual cretinous dross …. at least we know to ignore that.

  18. Whizzer, Wilkie spent twenty years in the Australian Army, in the Infantry, before he became an intelligence analyst with ONA. Don’t you think he might be a little better qualified to make judgements about such matters than you?

    Whizzer, like the rest of the arm-chair generals (including those in the Liberal Party) believes he knows better than ex-Colonels, real Air Vice Marshalls, the rule of law, common decency, the principles of British-Australian Military justice as enacted by the Howard Government and anyone in the Labor Party on any subject.

    He and his pals are judged to be “Best On National Defence” (or were once, at least) despite slagging off just about anyone – military or otherwise – who disagrees with the day’s talking points. This includes Labor, who are the only party that has fought (and won) a real war as government, instead of marching around parade grounds, Colonel Blimp-wize, perching their fat arses on Imperial War Cabinet Chesterfield lounges, and crawling to the Yanks on just about any occasion that offers itself.

    They claim to be all for “hallowed traditions” and “separation of powers”, yet as soon as they see a quick couple of votes in abandoning both of these, do so with alarming alacrity. The only people they agree with and support are the ones who march in lock-step with them. Any others who dare to contradict them are traitors, cowards, secret Labor moles in the Public Service and now cheap lefty plants in the armed services who (by some miracle of subterfuge) managed to hoodwink John Howard into appointing them into their positions and rank. Just shows how devious the socialists can get, eh?

    The GW mentality (and I include the poor sods on “Struggle St.” who remain glued to their shock-jock lifelines all day just so they can be angry about something) is to be permanently pissed-off at something, anything, as long as it suits the current Liberal meme of the day, or even the hour. Some commentators say they should know better. The truth is that they do know better, but choose to mislead, obfuscate, oppose, cajole, bully and bullshit on a 24/7 basis, while all the while (and this is quite important) claiming to be underdogs being kicked in the guts by the forces of the Left, who apparently control the media, the ABC, the Public Service, the Armed Forces, the intelligence agencies and now those bastions of Free Enterprise, the Banks.

    What a pathetic lot they are, but the crux of it is that they have no shame and don’t mind being laughed at and mocked. It suits their “martyr complex” mentality perfectly.

  20. Not sure if this has been mentioned.

    Page 52 of the AFR: Hockey and Team Score Another Own Goal by Laura Tingle.

    “… But to suggest re-regulation of a sector purely on the back of a sniff of political opportunity, and without having thought through what you are actually saying is one of the more spectacular own goals by the Coalition on economic policy of recent times, and that is saying something.

    There is also the splendid hypocrisy of an opposition that attack a government for not stopping the banks making super profits but then claims it is absolutely shocking that it tries to reap revenue from mining companies doing the same thing”

    This is not from her back page Canberra Observed column but further into the newspaper.

  27. [Australia’s export prices surged nearly 8 per cent in the September quarter, a figure which is expected to increase expectations of a rates rise next month.

    The 7.8 per cent increase was mainly driven by higher coal and iron ore prices, fuelled by demand from Asia.

    Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), show import prices rose by just 0.7 per cent during the quarter and were down 1.5 per cent for the year.

    An increase in the prices paid for iron and steel helped the modest gain in import prices.

    RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong says today’s stronger-than-expected data should not be underestimated.

    “They are underpinning double digit nominal GDP growth, rising disposable income, the impending business investment surge, and the strong labour market,” Ms Ong said.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/22/3046024.htm?section=justin

    “a figure which is expected to increase expectations of a rates rise next month.” Says who ABC work experience kid? I am sick and tired of every bit of economic data getting the interest rate crystal ball gaze.

    Did they read the bit about imports? The stuff that adds to inflation – down 1.5% for the year?

  31. gus,

    Footballers wear them every week to signify some loss. Hate to think you are getting in to stereo typing.

  34. gus,

    You obviously don’t see your whole life being disrupted.

    There are always ugly elements.

    Thank goodness our democracy is strong enough to survive.

  35. ruawake @3627,

    I think most of these so called journalists are just parrots trying to pump themselves up as actually having some economic/business creed. “Pay attention to me I know what I am talking about.”

    I really had to laugh during the early days of the GFC in Australia when Kevin was putting out the stimulus packages. Every second journalist was going on and on about ” pump priming” as if they were experts instead of just having read about it the day before.

    Then there was the two or three month fixation with “green shoots”. Every one was going on and on about it. No idea what they were talking about but geez it looked good.

    They should all just cut and paste and go get a real job to “pump prime their green shoots”!

  36. BK:

    Did you enjoy Leeser’s discomfort? On the one hand hating Hockeynomics, but on the other unable to criticise him.

    Why bother with these partisans, they add nothing to the discussion.

  38. [THE Federal Government has given conditional approval to two major coal seam gas projects in central Queensland.
    Environment Minister Tony Burke announced today that his department had given conditional environmental approvals for Gladstone Liquefied Natural Gas (GLNG) – a $16 billion joint venture between Santos, Malaysia’s Petronas and France’s Total – and BG Group’s Queensland Curtis LNG.
    “I have decided that these projects can go ahead without unacceptable impacts on matters protected under national environmental law,” Mr Burke said.
    He said there were a total of 300 conditions which must be met.
    “We must protect the Great Artesian Basin, our threatened species, our waterways and the Great Barrier Reef,” the minister said.]

    Anna Bligh just let out a huge sigh. 🙂

  40. Re. the mining tax
    [“But the bottom line is that the Federal Government can’t change the GST arrangements without the agreement of all the states and we certainly won’t be agreeing to any of that.”]
    didn’t this issue of changes to the GST allocations come up in the health debate.
    Rudd wanted a deal with the Premiers, but if he didn’t then he could legislate changes to the GST allocation in parliament.
    I assume what is being considered, is that if the WA govt increase the mining royalties, when the Government would decrease the GST receipts back to the state Govt to compensate.

  46. BK very ugly comments on ABC radio from those at the meeting. One woman said wtte why should I have to drive x mins to get to the hospital when “these people” will have a doctor on site. Very ugly indeed.

  48. Has Judy Moylan carried on like Briggs over the asylum seekers going to Northam?

    And IIRC Crook has some in his electorate, somewhere near Kal. What has he had to say?

  49. The only good thing about the poll is a slight improvement in the right-direction/wrong-direction score …

    The wrong direction score has fallen from 28% to 26.5% & the right-direction has improved from 53.5% to 54%.

  50. [I think someone else suggested it, but I am now convinced that truthy is Andrew Bolt.]

    Did Wilkie use the troops names in his speech for withdrawing the troops?

    A yes or no answer will suffice.

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