Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Diog, it’s good to see that you have come back to your senses.

    As they say in A Few Good Men: “You cant handle the Fractals” :kiss:

  2. Bolt (who’s in the Cossie camp) quoted this

    [ Mr Howard puts the entire blame on Mr Costello. “Peter’s inept handling of the December 1994 story incident had created a situation where I had no alternative but to announce when I did that I would stay,” he says.]

    and responded

    [Well, he did have an alternative, but put his pride before his party. ]

  3. [I get the distinct impression that Mesma would love to be vs Rudd

    Fess, it’s more like Mesma :kiss: Rudd. Is Therese aware of the love-in? Ah yes, Rome is the eternal love city.

  4. GeeWizz@3528

    He’s crying for the troops who he claims he supports(and wants them withdrawn despite the families of the dead not wanting that).

    So we should leave more soldiers to be killed in an unwinnable war because the families of previously killed soldiers want it that way?

    What evidence do you have that they all actually want this? How many have you spoken to? What are their names?

    Then he wants te opposition minister for defence to be sacked for backing 3 troops who are charged with murder.

    They they aren’t.

    Obviously, you haven’t talked to the families of the accused, either. Have you.

  5. [Mr Howard reveals discussions in 2006 with several senior ministers – Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull, Alexander Downer and Mal Brough – who urged him to stay in office.]

    And who is left now? 😆

  6. [It all smacks of mindless populism and another pointless debate in which the Parliament cannot, and should not, intervene. In other words, what can the Parliament do to force the banks to toe the line? Long answer: tinker at the edges of prudential regulations for no community or customer benefit. Short answer: nothing. ]

    Whose side is the Oz on?
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/hockey_thought_bubble_bursts_on_banks/

  7. I wonder how many more Libs will come out to defend Costello. It might be payback for Queen Hyacinth ruling over them with an iron fist for so long.

  8. [How come Turnbull wanted Howie to stay? Did he really hate Cossie that much?]

    He reckoned he would have a chance to roll Costello eventually?

  9. Oh, my hairy Aunt, I am agreeing with Andrew Bolt! That would have to be a first and I hope he really socks one to Howard and his Mrs for thinking they were omnipotent.

  10. ru

    Wouldn’t he want Cossie to run, lose the election and take over after that? If Cossie hadn’t have lost his bottle/dummy spat who knows what would have happened when he took over after Howie. There would have to be a huge chance that he’d be PM now.

  11. The bad thing for Tony Abbott is that he has to keep his head down over the next few days. Otherwise he would have to provide a commentary on Howie or Cossie and thus offend supporters of one or another.

  12. peeps

    Cossie was never in the race,if he was a leader he would broken thru or been broken

    he preferred the hunt not the fox

    Talcum is the arch machiV polly, he would have played all sides equally

  13. What the hell happened here?

    The first article has Cossie bagging Truffles’ idea of cutting the top marginal tax rate

    [Mr Howard floated cutting the top rate of 47 cents ahead of Mr Turnbull’s report which looked at ways of bringing the rate down to 35-40 cents in the dollar.]

    and the second has Cossie asking Treasury to look into the cost of a 30% top marginal rate.

    [Peter Costello’s Treasury Department has secretly costed a plan for a flat tax and a top marginal rate of 30 per cent, documents have revealed.]

  14. [The OO gave Abbott a going over yesterday. Today it is Hockey’s turn.]

    Today’s front page is a hoot! Joe bashing on one hand; Conroy & MDA-report bashing on the other; spiced with Indie & Green bashing & the OO’s usual bubble-headed hysteria

    (1) Rupert is due soon for his usual Oz visit, and the OO’s staff, from Ed to lowliest gofer wonder for whom the toxin tolls this time

    (2) It’s Newspoll weekend, and the Coalition has, for yet another week, made its incompetence THE issue

    (3) Rupert’s due soon and is bound to spit the dummy over what the OO’s failed push for an immediate re-run of Election10 (& its role in the Indies’ decision) cost him in terms of public broadcaster manipulation and the threat NBN poses to his media empire.

    (4) Abbott is madder than Mad Mark & the staff know he’s for the chop whenever Rupert and/or a credible Liberal decides the axe should fall

    (5) Labor ministers have taken to attacking the OO, especially the veracity & credibility of its pronouncements – eg “created” news with no factual background. Murdoch the Mogul will want to know why. Perhaps the attack on Grog’s Gamut has emboldened the antiMurdoch MSM & Blogsphere?

    (6) It’s Newspoll weekend; but all the usual beat-ups are running out of muscle:

    * the Abbott-instigated defence beat-up lead-ballooned,

    *the Government kept its head over defence & Boat people.

    * whipping up antiMDB Plan crowds hardly resonated past the Riverina; it is, after all, a Howard government initiative & that’s the way labor’s playing it

    * even beating up boat-people arrivals has fallen fairly flat as the issue just about bottoms what voters believe are the most important issues.

    (7) James Packer has bought a very big stake in Channel 10, adding motor racing etc to Channel 9’s sporting portfolio, just as the NBN rollout is cerrtain to pass the Senate, even if passage is delayed until 2011’s August sitting.

    (8) There’s almost no chance Rupert will be happy with his Flagship. “Don’t panic! Don’t panic!!!”

  15. [He’s crying for the troops who he claims he supports(and wants them withdrawn despite the families of the dead not wanting that).]

    A half truth, Whizzer, designed to disguise the lie, eh? The full truth is that different families have publicly expressed very different views on this , including ones that are very similar indeed to those expressed by Wilkie:

    [Private Luke Worsley, on his second tour of duty in Afghanistan, was the fourth Australian soldier killed…..His uncle Ken Marks, speaking from Broken Hill in NSW, is angry Australia entered the war.

    ‘‘Jason went over there so the terrorists wouldn’t come here, but we shouldn’t be there, it’s got nothing to do with us,’’ he says.

    ‘‘Why are our young people over there still getting killed? They have taken the life of a father, a son, a nephew, and you never stop crying about it … I think the best thing they could do is pull our boys out and let them go home to their families. I think they need to know that we are dying over there and it’s not making one iota of difference.’’

    Gary Bewes is also racked by conflict over Afghanistan, where 1500 Australians are deployed. ‘‘I know they’re doing a good job over there, but is it going to end up going back to what it was in 10 years’ time when everyone pulls out?’’ he asks.

    ‘‘Other than trying to eliminate terrorists and al-Qaeda and the Taliban, I think it’s a lost cause as far as if they think it’s ever going to become a democratic government … I would like to think they are achieving something, but in the end I wonder whether the cost of 21 lives so far, with probably more to come, is worth it.’’].

    (from http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/families-speak-out-for-the-men-they-loved-and-lost-20101016-16ohi.html )

    [Then he wants te opposition minister for defence to be sacked for backing 3 troops who are charged with murder.]

    Ah the creeping little bits of deception approach, eh Whizzer?

    No Australian soldiers have been charged with murder. Two soldiers have been charged with the lesser offence of manslaughter, and a third will be when he returns to Australia.

    Just about everyone in the business , from the Angus Houston down, reckons Johnston was out of line, not just on this matter, but in throwing up spurious nonsense about the need for tanks and the like. It is hardly surprising that Wilkie, when specifically asked whether Johnson was fit to remain as shadow defence spokesman said “no”. His view was based not just on his latest attempt to stir up a bit of populist interference with due process, but on his approach to the job as a whole.

  16. bluegreen @3505,

    Julia did say she would not be providing fodder to the MSM just for the sake of it.

    Less noise and less fluff being pumped out gives more air and impact to important announcements. Perhaps Labor is trying to wean the MSM cold turkey off the news cycle Kevin was putting out for the sake of it.

    More oomph for your buck this way !

  17. [there would have to be a huge chance that he’d {Costello} be PM now.]

    That’s making a number of big suppositions:

    1) He’d have run against a fresh Rudd, who, hindsight tells us, ran a flawless campaign as OL.
    2) He’d (justifiably) have had the WorkChoices albatross around his neck, making him difficult to elect.
    3) To be PM “now” he’d have to have also won in 2010 – Doubtful, given he is a lazy, complacent, weakwilled fellow, to put it charitably. If he’d been in office during the GFC, the response, driven by ideology, would have been the opposite of what was required to avert recession domestically.

  18. [there would have to be a huge chance that he’d {Costello} be PM now.]

    Not against Kev in 07. Cossie’s polling was way behind Kev and that kept the troops worried so they stayed with Howard. Nothing was going to stop Kev from winning that election. The time was up.

  19. [it is also a misconception that Japan surrendered purely due to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. ]

    Utter rubbish.

    The emperor was terrified the next A-Bomb would be on his house.

    Pretty hard to hide from an atomic bomb explosion.

  20. [If you ever want to lose your audience, GW, just say that so-and-so is “full of shit” and they’ll drift away in droves.]

    How many families of the dead troops has Wilkie talked to? It’s a very relevent question seeing as he claims he cares so much for them.

  21. [How many families of the dead troops has Wilkie talked to? It’s a very relevent question seeing as he claims he cares so much for them.]

    Defence Policy is not and should be not determined by the opinion of dead soldiers families.

  22. Does anyone else see the irony in this statement by Rudd?

    😆

    [Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd has called on NGOs to work with the government on its overseas aid programs, saying it does not have a monopoly on wisdom.]

  23. [
    The emperor was terrified the next A-Bomb would be on his house
    ]

    The Emperors Palace, along with most of Tokyo was already destroyed by Allied fire bombing. An Atom bomb wouldn’t have had anything to destroy

    [
    the night of 25 May 1945 most of the structures of the Imperial Palace were destroyed in the Allied fire-bombing raid. It was from the basement of the concrete library that Emperor Showa declared the capitulation of Japan in August 1945
    ]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Imperial_Palace

    The Soviet attack on the Japanese was an undoubted factor in their surrrender.

  24. [Not against Kev in 07. Cossie’s polling was way behind Kev and that kept the troops worried so they stayed with Howard. Nothing was going to stop Kev from winning that election. The time was up.]

    hear hear

    Cossie was the best thing that labor could have asked for,IF he had become Der Leader, then he would have been an even bigger loser.

    But labor and everyone else knew that anyways
    😉

  25. [Private Luke Worsley, on his second tour of duty in Afghanistan, was the fourth Australian soldier killed…..His uncle Ken Marks, speaking from Broken Hill in NSW, is angry Australia entered the war.]

    UNCLE?!?

    Are you pulling my leg? What does his half-cousin in law reckon?

    If this is the best the left can drag up, they might as well give up.

    You guys are pathetic.

    Heres Lukes PARENTS speaking:
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/were-proud-dead-soldiers-parents-say/2007/11/24/1195753368772.html

    [We’re proud, dead soldier’s parents say]

    [THE parents of Australian commando Private Luke Worsley say they have the utmost respect for the army despite his death in an attack in Afghanistan.

    John and Marjorie Worsley said the army was the life their 26-year-old son wanted and he was happy. “Though we are devastated at Luke’s loss, we know the army was his chosen profession and we have nothing but the utmost respect for the army and their support to us,” the family said in a statement.

    “We are extremely proud of our boy and we know that we lost him doing a job he was trained for and loved doing.”]

    You’ll have this bloke talking for the family next:
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sick-skeik-allegedly-taunts-diggers-widows-with-vicious-letters/story-e6freuy9-1225789639331

  26. [ Not against Kev in 07. Cossie’s polling was way behind Kev and that kept the troops worried so they stayed with Howard. Nothing was going to stop Kev from winning that election. The time was up. ]

    Yep, that’s why News Ltd backed Rudd. They were trying to make a virtue out of a necessity.

  27. So Geewizz, how many families have you talked to?

    As this is the gold standard in your eyes, unless you have talked to them all, you have no business commenting on this.

  28. [Defence Policy is not and should be not determined by the opinion of dead soldiers families.]

    Should it be based on Greens members crocodile tears?

    The families didn’t ask Wilkie to cry and piss and moan about their lost sons, it was a bloody disgraceful act to use their names for a political point especially one that the families don’t support. You think Wilkie did a good thing doing that? You think that was honorable? He should be ashamed of himself.

  29. FINNIGANS – And Minchin, of course, knows all about the common touch.

    Based on what I’ve read, my understanding is that Japan surrendered to the Yanks because the royal family realised that was the only way to save the monarchy. That’s why the emperor came up with his bear the unbearable speech, etc etc. The emperor realised that if there was an invasion, by Russkies or Yanks, he was toast.

    So, while the Russkies coming into the war was decisive, it was decisive because the emperor wanted to save his arse.

  30. [As this is the gold standard in your eyes, unless you have talked to them all, you have no business commenting on this.]

    I didn’t read their names out and use THEIR names to make MY political points.

    Wilkie did this. He used their names to push his views. He used their names to make political statements. He used their names to push his agenda.

    The only people who have the bloody right to do that is the families of the lost ones. Shame Wilkie, Shame is all I can say.

  31. Whoever posted the Jackie Kelly interview with Chris Uhlmann from the 2007 election, thankyou!

    It gave me a very good, long, hard laugh!

  32. BigBob

    I am afraid GW’s brain is stuck in a groove and he doesn’t know how to get out of it.
    Facts and critical thinking are causing him difficultly.

  33. [How many families of the dead troops has Wilkie talked to? It’s a very relevent question seeing as he claims he cares so much for them.]

    Ah, I’ve got it.
    I think someone else suggested it, but I am now convinced that truthy is Andrew Bolt.
    That is a typical non sequitur, irrational, irrelevent and unanswerable question such as Bolt makes when he’s cornered.

  34. [I thought the problem with that HFC cable Turnbull just referred to is that it doesn’t allow high-speed uploads? #Lateline about 8 hours ago via TweetDeck]
    http://twitter.com/mfarnsworth

    Is this right, tech guys. Turnbull always sounds so knowledgeable and plausible that not many people query what he actually says. They take it as read that he must be right because he is a ‘man of property’.

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