Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [very interesting age poll results. perhaps even joe public can see through Hockeynomics]

    The Age would have a greater-than-usual number of committed centre-left voting readers & this would distort the result.

  2. The people of Adelaide hills have voted down the governments illegal boatpeople centre.

    Will the government not listen to the democratic voice of the Adelaide Hills residents and stick the detention centre in the ACT, Sydney, Melbourne or Hobart where the left adore the boaties?

  3. [WeeJizz

    Have you enlisted yet, coward?]

    No but I come from a defence force town so I have a bit of an idea on what the troops want and thats to stay and keep the Taliban at bay.

    I think it’s disgraceful Wilkie can use the dead troops names in his speech. It’s a bloody disgrace, and he should be ashamed of himself. He knows the dead troops can’t speak back and thats why he did it.

  4. [Will the government not listen to the democratic voice of the Adelaide Hills residents]

    Typical blackshirt thug. The only opinions that matter are that of Liberal strongholds. Piss off to Iran if you don’t like our system of government. You’d love it there.

  5. Cheesewhiz @3377

    [Tasmanian Andrew Wilkie said today the Coalition was “trying to win cheap votes” by weighing in on the case.

    This blokes a disgrace!!!!

    One day he’s got crocodile tears for the troops, the next he wants them court martialled and thrown in the slammer.

    He really is a class act, only Tassies could manage to get this idiot into government.]

    Andrew Wilkie is not an idiot and we Tasmanians ( I assume that’s what you meant) are proud to have an independent MoP with experience and principles. You could take a leaf out of his book and acquire some of each.


  6. Howie and his ministers, before the 2007 election, reminds me a bit of Stalin after the german invasion. History buffs will recall that Stalin was caught with his pants down and his head in the sand. In a total funk, he retreated to his dacha. When his henchmen drove out to see him, Stalin thought they were going to kill him because of his total f… up. But he’d chosen his yes-men well, because, instead, they dropped to their knees and begged him to stay on as generalissimo. Within minutes, Stalin was back on his feet, treating everybody like shit.

    The biggest difference, of course is that Stalin won the war (with a few casualties) but Howie lost the election.

    But both proved the importance of having yes-men around.

  7. Wizzy

    I hear Kooyong, Wentworth, Warringah and Menzies are next. Followed by Higgins, North Sydney and Bennelong.

    Gotta get the left vote up in these rabid right electorates. 😛

  8. [No but I come from a defence force town so I have a bit of an idea on what the troops want and thats to stay and keep the Taliban at bay.]

    Yes and I live in a town that has lawyers in it, that makes me an expert on the constitution.

    My uncle (an actual veteran) thinks people like you are filthy cowards because you talk the talk, but will suddenly have a magical illness or something preventing you from serving if you are asked to walk the walk.

  9. [Don’t waste your considerable talent on WeeJism.

    Sorry. I keep forgetting!]
    It’s very hard to do, but I have succumbed twice in recent days.

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