Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [The polls are frustrating. Still 50-50 after the worst of Tony being on display for weeks.]

    Not only that but the fact that the Treasurer and Minister for Finance are collectively economic morons.

  2. Boerwar@45

    Mind you, The Guide proposes cuts of up to 70% in the allocation for the Ovens Valley. That’s going to be very difficult.

    What crops replaced tobacco along the Ovens?

  3. [Mind you, The Guide proposes cuts of up to 70% in the allocation for the Ovens Valley. That’s going to be very difficult.]

    They don’t grow tobacco up that way anymore, only hops. So they do not need the water. ???

  4. b-g


    I was trying not to think about whether Gillard would do a Kenneally/NSW Labor descent into utter policy and program failure.

    One critical difference is that Gillard is surrounded by a fair bit of class. Another is that the Gillard Government is in many ways essentially a first term government, whereas K&Co are in all material respects a last term government.

  5. BK
    [Smith is now about to throw a lot more merde back in the Opposition’s face.]
    Smith is using a trebuchet.

  6. “Then we have the problem of playing the Dragons first round every season.”

    Why would that be a problem? Particularly next year when they will have traded in their bench (Saffy, Smith, Thorby and Costigan) for the vastly over-rated and over-priced Gasnier. I’d love to be playing them first up with our pack back to full strength.
    And anyway, why shouldn’t the Charity Shield be in the first round? It would guarantee a huge gate, it would be played at multiple venues and it would actually mean a little bit more than it does now when two points are at stake.

  7. I don’t know what replaced the Chop Chop industry of the Ovens Valley.

    Ovens Valley irrigation is a very small proportion of the total irrigation in the MDB, so a bit of swings and roundabouts might be possible.

  8. There is no law that says Australia can force refugees to any other country after they have arrived here. There is and nor will there be any such thing as a “regional’ processing centre because by law the only place any person can claim protection in Australia is in Australia.

    Jesus wept, I do wish people would stop trying to force governments to break the law and breach all human rights standards.

    There is no regional crisis, the people are not from the region so why would the region be bothered with them when they want to come here and when the region are not signatory to the refugee convention.

    Perhaps those whining, like the ignorant media and pollsters, don’t get that everyone has the right to enter or leave any country under the covenant on civil and political rights, the universal declaration of human rights, the refugee convention and basic human decency if they are being tormented and persecuted for their beliefs or gender.

    We have no right to stop any vessel on the high seas, we cannot by law stop them coming into our waters to claim asylum and once they have we have no legal right to send them away.

    Enough with the lies and bullshit of “regional” – the morons want to sent by force anyone who arrives in our waters to Timor and lock them up and there is not one law on the planet that makes that legal.

    But perhaps Pakistan can send us the 1.9 million Afghans they cope with while we whine about 2,300 of them.

  9. BLUE GREEN – That’s why this govt has to put some runs on the board, pronto. Absolutely last thing JG wants is people saying the govt has “lost its way” – confirming that a minority govt doesn’t work.

  10. Mind you, The Guide proposes cuts of up to 70% in the allocation for the Ovens Valley. That’s going to be very difficult.

    What crops replaced tobacco along the Ovens?

    The odd patch of hops and a few vineyards. Otherwise it is mostly pasture now.

  11. Hey, lets leave the poodles alone, they are reckoned to be the smartest of dogs and the dumbest of dogs is still smarter than Pyne, and that includes the resin dog statue on my front porch. I am going to call him the Piddle because he is as weak as….

  12. Fiz

    If they have licences they may well be making good money from selling their annual allocations. Prices were good during the drought. So, licences, plus all the reconstruction money, plus all the compensation money that tobacco growers got for closing down their tobacco farms, plus…

    Maybe it is chop chop withdrawal symptoms we are looking at?

  13. The Opposition’s QT approach remains undisciplined, unstrategic and ill-coordinated. While it might be tempting to blame the Mange of Opposition Business, it is really up to Abbott to get the team working as a team.

  14. [Is anyone else liking this slicker question time?]

    Not much. Jenkins has them on too tight a leash. Ministers are too unwilling to go on the attack for fear of being pulled up on relevance (or maybe because the indies would frown upon it too). After three questions this parliament Roxon hasn’t even given Dutton a little jab, let alone a kick in the groin.

  15. [Was a single glove laid upon the government?]

    Was it ever in the last parliament?

    And yet if you watch the news tonight, the footage shown will depict the very opposite.

  16. Boerwar,

    It is very much a scattergun approach, and it looks like the government pre-empted the attack on almost every front. Tony is looking a bit lost and they certainly took a pizzling today.

  17. confessions

    You are right on that front.

    On Sky, upon immediately leaving question time. Guess what? They showed Abbott asking why the govt are not willing to approach the Nauru Govt, to re-open the detention centre.

  18. Who is this person, introduced as the person who puts together Order In The House, being interviewed by Uhlmann on ABCnews24? These two are stroking each other’s criticism of the gov’t.

  19. Boerwar @ 83

    [While it might be tempting to blame the Mange of Opposition Business]

    Whilst I assume it is a typo, I’m not altogether sure that you’re not right when it comes to Pyne and his mangy QT performance …

  20. [On a procedural point, can the asker of a Dorothy Dixer ask a supplementary question?]

    No, only the loto can ask a suppy and then only once. (He may delegate it to someone else).

  21. Boerwar:
    The problem with all the old tobacco areas is that the soil has been effectively ruined for a long period of time due to the huge amount of chemical residue (mostly organochlorines) that has been left behind. If you run cattle on old tobacco country then you have to pasture them off farm for a period of 6 months before you can sell them to reduce the chemicals in their fat stores. Most of the old tobacco farms seem to be mostly lying dormant with few even hitting the real estate market – they generally haven’t been re-cropped with anything else.

  22. [Hey, lets leave the poodles alone, they are reckoned to be the smartest of dogs and the dumbest of dogs is still smarter than Pyne]

    I saw a list of the bitingest dogs and poodles were on top. They are also the worst-looking dogs. They are also yappy. They really don’t have any redeeming qualities. Being run over is an appropriate punishment for any poodle just for existing. 🙂

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