Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Fiz
    Thanks. I suspect you might also have delivered an insight into why the Ovens River always had less good trout in it than it should have had.

  2. Triton
    [They really don’t have any redeeming qualities.]
    You are on shaky ground there. Keep it up and I will send you a puppy. (Tenterfield Terrier, I don’t have poodles.)

  3. [Hockey is talking about the benefits of Keating floating the dollar. Is this a criticism of Robb?]

    Very sedate Hockey, not playing politics at all. Talking about the benefits of a floating dollar – anti-Robb.

  4. Further says that the trade in A$ is larger than the size of Aus economy. Ultimately futile.

    What is the point of this speech? Anyone?

    Surely he will get onto bashing debt and deficit shortly.

  5. Thinking about it some more, the two salient features of that question time was that Gillard was Prime Ministerial, and Abbott was still asking campaign questions.

  6. Just put today’s taped episode of Play School on for my cranky little one. The presenters had a little wooden spoon family they were putting into a doll house. The family’s names?

    Father = John
    Mother = Jeanette
    Daughter = Melanie
    Son = Richard

    !!

    The infiltration is complete.

  7. Boerwar@82

    If they have licences they may well be making good money from selling their annual allocations. Prices were good during the drought.

    We should be making maximum use of the MDB water near its source, so this is a waste, IMHO.

    The Government should be buying up as many water licenses as it can get in the lower end of the basin and encouraging high value crops that need the most water to be grown in upstream areas such as the Ovens Valley. Buying 1 GL of water in SA is actually the equivalent of 2-4 Gig when you add in evaporation losses.

  8. [ I suspect you might also have delivered an insight into why the Ovens River always had less good trout in it than it should have had.]

    Dare I say such a thing, but some might suggest that Ovens shouldn’t have any trout in it at all. 😉

    Now Trout Cod , on the other hand….!

  9. William, in the previous thread you said “…automatic enrolment, has now been adopted at state level in New South Wales…”.

    It actually hasn’t been adopted in NSW yet because even though it has passed through both houses the act still hasn’t been commenced by the government. There’s no telling if it will be in place before the next state election. I’m not sure what the status is in Victoria.

  10. morewest
    Increasingly licences are not linked to a place. Increasingly annual allocations are sold all over the place.
    The sacred principle of individual property rights ensures a couple of poor policy outcomes, one of which you mention:
    (1) conveyance costs are not minimized.
    (2) deserted farms are pepperpotted, which means that there is more irrigation infrastructure to maintain than there is an efficient use for.

  11. morewest.
    So this end of the river should just be left to dry up? Acid mud, loss of habitat plus the upstream effects of the river no longer flowing to the sea? What is this, acceptable loss?

  12. PtMD
    The obvious thing is leave some environmental flows for SA so that the Coorong can stop being 6 times as salty as sea water, close SA irrigation, close down Adelaide – one of the silliest places in the world to have a city – and shift most South Australians to a regional processing centre somewhere near the upper reaches of the MDB, resettlement for the purpose of.

  13. [The obvious thing is leave some environmental flows for SA so that the Coorong can stop being 6 times as salty as sea water, close SA irrigation, close down Adelaide – one of the silliest places in the world to have a city – and shift most South Australians to a regional processing centre somewhere near the upper reaches of the MDB, resettlement for the purpose of.]

    Thus also overcoming the South Australian disease of “home loans” being pronounced “hime lines” as someone complained earlier …

  14. [ close down Adelaide – one of the silliest places in the world to have a city – and shift most South Australians to a regional processing centre somewhere near the upper reaches of the MDB, resettlement for the purpose of. (sic) ]
    What a capital idea, Boerwar! Let’s make Myrtleford the new capital of South Australia. The climate is relatively similar, if a little wetter in winter. A lovely, lush valley. This is already a stellar wine growing and making region, so that will be nice and familiar. Snow a short drive away – extra bonus! Bright and Harietteville can be the new Hills district. Beechworth can be the new Hahndorf. And I won’t have to be represented by the Indi Puff Adder any longer! We all win!

  15. Boerwar,
    [shift most South Australians to a regional processing centre somewhere near the upper reaches of the MDB, resettlement for the purpose of.]
    That’s okay then, as long as we all get with the program.

  16. [Rod Hagen
    Unless restocked, long gone, so a hypothetical. But I take your point.]

    They have been releasing quite a lot of Trout Cod in recent times, Boerwar. Kerford Lake most recently, but 24000 into the Ovens in 2005, 10,000 in 2006 etc etc.

    A fine fish, the Trout Cod!

  17. [Oh, and further on the Play School story – apparently there was a Rudd version made as well.]

    expecting Julia and Tim spoons ASAP

  18. [Thus also overcoming the South Australian disease of “home loans” being pronounced “hime lines” as someone complained earlier …]
    Someone needs to calibrate their hearing aide.

  19. Rod Hagen:
    We even had a 1000 put into our little local Barge Dam this year. There are a couple of locals who have been practically living down there since they were released, so I imagine there’s quite a few less now!

  20. [Oh, and further on the Play School story – apparently there was a Rudd version made as well.]

    Surely having a kids show based on Members of Parliament and their family is politicisation?

  21. Their ABC24 interviewed the Mayor of Northam over the new Detention Centre – The Libs will be in a REAL Bind if they kick up a stink, as it it’s in the seat of Pearce – where JUdi Moylan is known for her pro refugee stance.

  22. [confessionsPosted Monday, October 18, 2010 at 4:16 pm | PermalinkFrank:
    Barnett has spoken in support of women and children AS being released into the community.
    ]

    I’m referring to Abbott and Co 🙂

    And Barnett has been known to oppose a detention Centre in Northam.

    I would take what he says with a large Salt Mine.

  23. [And ‘Aus-tray-lee-uh’ – all four syllables]

    You mean instead of the two that most people see to get by with these days , Puff , as in “stray-uh” (sometime elongated slightly to “stray -yuh” . 😉

  24. I guess at least it makes it harder to confuse here with Austria. Perhaps we could have a referendum to modify the spelling to accord better with the manner in which sports reporters and others generally render it. Certainly make it easier for little kiddies using phonics when learning to spell! 😮

  25. Fiz Fiz Fiz

    we really MUST get together some time.

    I’m in town tomorrow for a meeting at 1, could see you at Cafe Delizio after 2?

    My ode to Myrtleford:

    Throw some chestnuts on the fire
    Pour me out a glass of wine
    Give me a sip of that water divine
    Drawn from a creek on the mountainside

    I can smell the alpine air
    Let’s me know I’m nearly there
    I’m coming home to Myrtleford…..

    Folks, the drought had the nice coincidental effect for the Ovens valley – it created a huge demand for fodder just as the tobacco farms were closing.

    What will happen now that demand has declined is a question still to be answered.

    The farmers have also been able to live off their payment up til now, but with many of them it’s hit the wall time.

    Also, farms up here are relatively small – you could make a very good living off 50 acres. This means there’s lots of small holdings around which are too big for hobby farmers and too small to make a lving from.

    Chestnuts have been booming for the last few years, thanks to some innovative work by local growers, but alas, we’ve now been struck by chestnut blight.

    So the valley really is in ‘wait and see’ mode.

    As for the water argument: I did warn the divine Mrs M. at the time that the M-D plan proposed by Malcolm sold us all down the river, so to speak.

    If we were looking at the situation logically, we’d be doing this the other way about: instead of taking water away from areas such as this, we’d be encouraging the relocation of water intensive industries into upper river valleys.

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