The latest weekly Essential Research survey finds the two parties still gridlocked at 50-50. Both parties are up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 45 per cent and Labor to 40 per cent – with the Greens down to 9 per cent. Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly since before the election: Julia Gillard’s approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval down three to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two to 43 per cent and down seven to 37 per cent. However, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is almost unchanged, up from 46-35 to 47-35. Fewer respondents now rate an election within 12 months as desirable – it’s now 43 per cent all, compared with 52 per cent supporting and 33 per cent opposed a fortnight ago – and there also fewer who deem it likely, although it’s still a clear majority at 59 per cent (down from 70 per cent a fortnight ago). More voters thought the media did a good (32 per cent) than a poor (23 per cent) job reporting the election and its aftermath, while Coalition supporters were found to be more likely to believe the media wasn’t fair to their side.
UPDATE: Some fine print reading from Bernard Keane in Crikey:
But in the wake of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor deciding to back Labor, there’s now a much stronger party split on that issue, with 75% of Liberal voters calling for another election, compared to 65% a fortnight ago, whereas support for another election among Labor and Green voters has fallen dramatically, with more than 70% of Labor and Green voters not wanting another election.
geoffrey
Posted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 5:14 pm | Permalink
“have never been more ashamed to be australian. the propaganda of the right and media is unabetted – little to be proud of in this democracy. BB aided in the destablisation of non liberal side, he has been tres naive.”
got BB alot of primary votes , at double Labor’s expense..in primarys and minus credabilty
But that’s how he gets the women! 😀
On a more serious note, he’s highlighting an injustice here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3Wp8HDchoQ
“Most of them are black” 😆
[30 million? I see no problem having Australia with 50 million people. Get em start building big dams in Kennedy so that all that fresh water can be trapped and used throughout Australia. You’d have Bobs vote. With all that water, you can build a few in-land cities, and house millions.]
Then we could let teh FNQ area break-away to form a new state, just like they wanted to. We could call it Queenslandistan, with the capital in Tarinsville.
i was reading an article, where Pyne said wtte, that the libs should except the election and work on getting another form of gov. and hinted they may change their broadband policy
Reading between the lines does he mean or want us to think the INid. can leave labor at any time and come to the Libs.
Which leads me to ask the question,, Can they do this,
I thought the ind. have a written deal with labor.????
So why the sentence, as any one seen exactly what he said Pyne that is
Classic Frank retort to facts. You’re wrong coz I said so.
Privi
Actually it is true that it takes 12 hours for the test to come back. That is what I said. You are right that it can take 12 weeks to become positive but we don’t quarantine people for 12 weeks.
Kakaru – on the score of setting me straight the object of my original post was to set the record straight on Gillard. She is not very bright unhappily. If an alien landed in Oz today they’sdguess that the PM is maybe Rudd, Brown, Oakeshott or that other fellow Abbott. Her performance is appalling and shows no backbone and consistency .. er why was Rudd ousted?
[found a site for the amigos, getting ready for 2012]
Amigo Vera, he he he he:
STOP OBAMA!!!!
http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/imgad?id=CMbjsPi4i-HoowEQ0AIYjQIyCN5uuISWD4CB
Kakuru – I should add that I like most here was delighted when she knifed Rudd and thought: Great – a smart woman with principles – she’ll romp in it and be a great success. I was wrong and I don’t think she will last in the job at this rate.
Diogenous
you for or against mandatory detention
Mick77 @ 207:
[ Kakaru – on the score of setting me straight the object of my original post was to set the record straight on Gillard. She is not very bright unhappily. ]
Well, she’s definitely Smarter Than a 5th Grader.
[DiogenesPosted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 5:26 pm | PermalinkClassic Frank retort to facts. You’re wrong coz I said so.
Privi
Actually it is true that it takes 12 hours for the test to come back. That is what I said. You are right that it can take 12 weeks to become positive but we don’t quarantine people for 12 weeks.
]
Oh Clueless one:
Note that the 3 months ALSO includes Security checks – which means contacting people overseas to find out their bona-fides.
Remember they arrive here WITHOUT Identity papers.
Happy to prove you are yet again wRONg. 🙂
[Well, she’s definitely Smarter Than a 5th Grader.]
She’s also smarter than Abbott. She was much quicker than he was to size up the hung parliament situation and what sort of negotiation was called for. Consequently she is PM and Abbott is not.
Ron
I’m for a one week detention for the health and safety checks and then release into community. That’s what almost every other civilized country in the world does.
[RonPosted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 5:29 pm | PermalinkDiogenous
you for or against mandatory detention]
He is a believer of Greens Fairytales. 🙂
[William – I would have thought that wishing Abbott dead (see references to Portsea etc) was a bit of a no-no.]
Yes, there’s a comment moderation guideline that takes care of this one – however, I’m currently too busy to look into whether that’s really what’s happened. Sorry about this.
Abbott…smart, what a joke! The bloke is an idiot. Nearly as big a dope as George W.
The only real difference between the two would be that Dubya kept playing golf while pretending to run his country, whereas the monkey would be parading around in his budgies and riding his bike while pretending to run ours!
Comparing Julia’s intelligence to Abbott is as great an insult as imaginable!
[DiogenesPosted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 5:33 pm | PermalinkRon
I’m for a one week detention for the health and safety checks and then release into community. That’s what almost every other civilized country in the world does.]
Not in Italy 🙂
[Detention in the CDAs is “strictly limited to the time necessary to determine the identity and qualification for remaining in Italy, and for determining whether or not they should be deported” (Testo Unico 1998 Art. 14). The overall maximum length of detention in CIEs is now 180 days, which requires magistrate approval after each 60 day detention interval expires (Disposizioni in materia di sicurezza pubblica 2009 Art. 1, para. 21).
Detention in the CDAs is “strictly limited to the time necessary to determine the identity and qualification for remaining in Italy, and for determining whether or not they should be deported” (Testo Unico 1998 Art. 14). The overall maximum length of detention in CIEs is now 180 days, which requires magistrate approval after each 60 day detention interval expires (Disposizioni in materia di sicurezza pubblica 2009 Art. 1, para. 21). ]
http://www.globaldetentionproject.org/countries/europe/italy/introduction.html#c2421
[I should add that I like most here was delighted when she knifed Rudd and thought: Great – a smart woman with principles – she’ll romp in it and be a great success. I was wrong and I don’t think she will last in the job at this rate.]
1) She didn’t “knife” Rudd at all. Rudd didn’t have the numbers in caucus, he effectively resigned, and Julia Gillard was elected leader unopposed.
2) You don’t get to become Prime Minister by being a dummy. She not only won the 2pp vote in the face of Abbott getting the softest ride from the media of any Opposition leader in history. She then was the successful negotiator of the deal which saw her continue as Prime Minister.
Brains, beauty and bravery.
Centre – and your proof of Gillard’s smartness is … her brilliant elections promises, her brilliant ditching of them, her brilliant makeover during the campaign, her brilliant bowing to the lunatic Greens (hullo .. there’s a country to run), her brilliant promotion of the Rudd plotters, with Rudd in the team instead of sending him permanently to NY .. stay tuned on that. Well pick one maybe.
[ with Rudd in the team instead of sending him permanently to NY ]
Yes, just what Labor needs: a by-election in Griffith.
Cuppa – well I disagree – she’s a dummy for my money and I see no chance of her still being in the job at next election.
RBA says we will need interest rate hikes to cool the economy because of the mining / energy boom:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/higher-interest-rates-needed-to-contain-mining-boom-says-glenn-stevens/story-e6frg926-1225926810834
Of course, instead of raising rates which will harm parts of the economy that aren’t growing as quickly or at all, we could just have a resource rent tax which the Henry review recommended. That would do the same job, and raise money that could be spent strengthening other parts of the economy.
Mick77,
Yes. We can tell.
[Mick77Posted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 5:45 pm | PermalinkCuppa – well I disagree – she’s a dummy for my money and I see no chance of her still being in the job at next election]
As opposed to your hero Tony- the Forrest Gump of Australian Politics 🙂
[she’s a dummy for my money]
So how come she’s the PM against incredible odds and you’re just a jaundiced blog poster?
Kakuru – you’re right – the by-election is the problem but could have been done with a majority – WHICH SHE SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN WITH A DECENT CAMPAUGN.
[2. Tony Abbott is the best opposition leader in living memory]
How could he be – he didn’t win the election
cuppa,
and balls?
Let’s just put this into perspective. In the 2010 election, Gillard defeated:
– Ltd News,
– An astronomical conga line of Rupe butt cleansers,
– Their ABC,
– Channel 7,
– Channel 9,
– The majority at Fairfax, and
– Sky Noos.
Not a bad performance!
Cuppa – against incredible odds ??? Gimme a break – she was a shoe-in until the 150 man talk-fest and the East Timor solution.
Ari,
Yes, yes, yes, STOP THE MYTHS!!!!!!
“Tony Abbott is the best opposition leader in living memory”.
Long may he reign.
Frank
[Note that the 3 months ALSO includes Security checks – which means contacting people overseas to find out their bona-fides.
Remember they arrive here WITHOUT Identity papers.
Happy to prove you are yet again wRONg. ]
Are you saying that the Australian government is so incompetent that it takes them three months to determine identity etc for people without papers when other countries do it in one or two weeks?
B eat me to it probably, gg!
Finally received a reply to one of my complaints to ABC re unbalanced content.
This particular complaint was regarding the amount of time being given to Andrew Robb on ABC News24, namely 15 min interviews on a regular basis with no balance from a Labor finance person or any Labor response. I objected also to the one sided cosy interviewing style from the two ABC front persons, a male and a female as opposed to the hard line questioning of labor spokespersons when they are given non eqivalent air time. This totally inadequate cop out of a response is pathetic.
—– Original Message —–
From: ABC Corporate_Affairs8
To: djpl@+++++++++
Sent: Monday, September 20, 2010 2:06 PM
Subject: re: balance in news
Dear David
Thank you for your email of 1 August. I apologise for the delay in responding.
Your concerns of a lack of balance have been considered by Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit separate to and independent from ABC program areas.
On review of the election coverage on 1 August on ABC News 24, Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Wayne Swann was interviewed on the Insiders program broadcast at 7.00am; a joint press conference held by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, Peter Garrett and Chris Bowen was broadcast live from 8:26am; and later that morning the Greens campaign launch was also broadcast live.
The ABC’s provisions for balance in news coverage do not require that each and every interview be balanced with a right of reply; rather, the principal relevant viewpoints on matters of importance should be broadcast within an appropriate timeframe. Given the range of views broadcast by ABC News 24 during the day you refer to, Audience and Consumer Affairs is satisfied that the interview with the Coalition’s Andrew Robb was in keeping with the ABC’s editorial standards.
Nonetheless, please be assured that your concerns have been noted and conveyed to ABC News management. For your reference, the ABC’s provisions for news and current affairs content are outlined in section 3 of the Code of Practice, available online at: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/200806_codeofpractice-revised_2008.pdf
Yours sincerely
Denise Musto
Audience & Consumer Affairs
I will be replying to Musto expressing my dissatisfaction and his ducking for cover over my original complaint. Plus I would have expected a more mature serious answer to a proper and reasonable request.
So who will be the first genius from the Opposition to complain about Julia being out of the country to much?
[
JULIA Gillard will meet world leaders during four overseas trips in October and November.
The Prime Minister has indicated she will focus more strongly on a domestic agenda than her well-travelled predecessor Kevin Rudd, who was dubbed “Kevin 747”.
However Ms Gillard said today she would be in Brussels between October 4-5 for the Asia-Europe Meeting of leaders from 43 countries, and from October 29-30 will travel to Hanoi for the East Asia Summit and the inaugural ASEAN-Australia Leaders’ Summit, her office said.
On November 11-12, Ms Gillard will attend the G20 Leaders’ Meeting in Seoul, working on cooperation to strengthen the global economic recovery.
Immediately afterwards, on November 13-14, the Prime Minister will attend the APEC Leaders’ Meeting.
]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-to-rub-shoulders-with-world-leaders-on-four-trips/story-fn59niix-1225926886422
[ Yes, there’s a comment moderation guideline that takes care of this one – however, I’m currently too busy to look into whether that’s really what’s happened. Sorry about this. ]
Sorry, my Portsea comment was tongue-in-cheek. It wasn’t a deathwish.
And anyway, as we all know, Holt didn’t die on that fateful day. He was abducted by Chinese submarines.
[Cuppa – well I disagree – she’s a dummy for my money and I see no chance of her still being in the job at next election.]
We shall see. I don’t think, back in 2007, anybody would’ve seen the following election being Gillard v Abbott (without tooting my own horn, I did predict Abbott would be leading the Libs to the following election but I, of course, assumed it would be against Rudd)
The next election could be:
Gillard v Abbott
Gillard v another Liberal
Another Labor v Abbott
Another Labor v Another Liberal
(In that order, descending from most likely to least likely IMO)
Nevertheless, at this point with 50-50 polls all around, it is nothing more than guesswork.
I have a couple of issues and since you all are talking seekers or refuge perhaps that is as a good a lens as any to look at them through.
I think firstly the Kevin 07 campaign was very much about voters rejecting Howard, rather than Rudd warming their hearts, and no real difference to how Howie toppled Paul before him. Howard’s headland speeches and promise, not that he kept any at all, but they were to be like Paul but nicer. I don’t think he kept the broad spirit either but that is a personal taste thing.
Then the question, ignoring the power brokers and the change from Rudd to Gillard, what went wrong. Greens like to say it was the destruction of the ETS by them and the Libs that destroyed Kev, or perhaps trying to distance themselves from the disaster that they helped unfold they like to blame either the preceding decision not to roll the dice on a double dissolution election, or the subsequent decision to say look we tried and we failed its gonna take a new parliament and at least three years now for his collapsing support.
If this was really the issue (and yes it almost certainly bled some votes to the greens for which they were no doubt delighted to have and the fact the needed to set back the ETS at least 3 years, maybe 10 maybe more is of little concern to them it would seem) it doesn’t really explain the tidal movement to the Libs. If there were great big numbers of middle Australia floating between Labor and the Greens on this the election would have gone very differently.
From the other end you had the News Corp led right wingery. This was always there even pre Kevin07 but they seemed to find a focus with pink batts and school halls. Both ridiculous transparent lies by the libs but lies that seem to have found very fertile ground. I can’t help but speculate that the public service is held in very low regard, and perhaps the libs were very smart to be able to use some lies and misdirection to have this mood applied against the government. I’m not sure.
Finally to the boats. It is perhaps a classic from the right wingery. And I want to use a needle, a hypothetical middle position if you polled every Australian for their views, from welcome them to with open arms and state housing, to let them drown at sea.
The needle was for 12 years steady or steadily moving in the let them drown at sea direction. I don’t know if the greens were yelling and screaming and no-one was listening or what, but I do know where the needle was. It hasn’t really moved a lot. So largely Howard was measured from his end, and it didn’t really matter if a few drowned at sea so long as very few were seen to get here. We know they really did but that didn’t seem to matter we’d punished them enough for either the voters or the media not to care.
But here we have diogs measuring Labor not by the direction it moved the needle for the last three years, but frankly he is measuring them by a ‘welcome and here is your public housing’ standard.
It is these double standards that bother me and I think make it impossible for labor to do well.
Like mining companies can kill a few people each year directly and it doesn’t matter really all that much. I’m suspecting it does to their families but you know happens all the time no-one complains. With pink batts yes there were a few deaths and now a few prosecutions but labor was judged not as the govt but as the employer.
Same with election costings – libs don’t matter, lab has to be pinpoint perfect. I don’t get it. And i’m not sure, much as I like cheering labor, and much as it did or tried to do pretty much exactly what I think any rational person would have done last term, but I’m not sure it gets us in position to analyse these things. Almost like Truthy. He just types the kind of stuff Abbott says. But Abbott gets away with it much more than Truthy and if anything Truthy is the more balanced and rational of the two.
I’m not sure I understand why. But the more I see the more I think it has to do with the voter and less with Rudd or Gillard, I’m still of the we should have stuck with Rudd, yeah the biggest driver was everyone on his team hated him passionately, but they got on the rollercoaster with him they should have got of without him.
Enough from me, sorry for the long post, I read a lot post a little, sorry for the long outpouring. And for the true believers I had a professional on a solid 6 figure wage ask me how to join a Labor party branch, so not everyone is conned by the liberals rubbish, and not everyone runs to the greens.
Dio@232
[Are you saying that the Australian government is so incompetent that it takes them three months to determine identity etc for people without papers when other countries do it in one or two weeks?]
Do the maths – multply it by the number of detainees.
Did you read the bit about Italy ?
Or are you so blind by Greens Fairytales yhou cannot see the Tofu from the Forest ?
iDIOt.
[JULIA Gillard will meet world leaders during four overseas trips in October and November.]
Yay! We get to show her off! 🙂
[Let’s just put this into perspective. In the 2010 election, Gillard defeated:]
She also outwitted a concerted mining company PR campaign against the government, and won out against the tobacco industry’s campaign.
That’s pretty clever.
[
Yes, there’s a comment moderation guideline that takes care of this one – however, I’m currently too busy to look into whether that’s really what’s happened. Sorry about this.
]
[
Sorry, my Portsea comment was tongue-in-cheek. It wasn’t a deathwish
]
As was my Chinese sub reference. Sorry if it was in bad taste
Mick77,
It’s easy, the easiest thing in the world, to sit as an armchair critic of the person who’s got the hardest job in the country.
When you reach the top of the field in your chosen line of work, as she’s done hers, then you’ll be more qualified to criticise.
[cos you sprout Green Talking points as Gospel.
Another member of the Fairtale Collective.]
Frank, I can see that you very devoutly believe in your position. As I’ve said before I’m one of those people who sit around the “cusp” of the Greens and Labor – the rational end of Greens / the idealistic end of Labor.
I’m also a professional social scientist with some 35 years working experience on the clock. I have a fondness for evidence based material when it comes to issues like asylum seekers. I know that when speaking to the “devout” that numbers don’t often matter much, but humour me. Give me some evidence that Afghan asylum seekers are even a tenth – no, a thousandth – as likely to give you AIDS as the “Aussie” girl or boy next door?
Now point me to figures which DON’T indicate that Asylum seekers coming by boat are far, far more likely to be genuine refugees than those who arrive by air before lodging their refugee claims?
I’m sorry, but dismissing people who ask for even the most minimal real evidence as “sprouting Green Talking points as Gospel” simply harms the reputation of the Labor party that you love so well amongst people who actually think. I’m actually quite fond of the Labor Party too, but arguments based on silly epithets from their supporters don’t do their cause any good whatsoever.
Labor and the Greens clearly have to work out an effective way of working together in the coming years if either of them want to operate effectively. Those of us who sit around the boundary between the two can probably help with that. If the two parties don’t sort out such things neither are going to have a hope in hades of effectively achieving their primary aims, no matter how devout their beliefs.
Mick 77,
Gillard presented policies! Policies that were ALL fully costed. Your bloke couldn’t count to 21 if he was naked with a microscope!
To present a black hole of an Australian political RECORD of $11b + $1b bribe for a hospital in TAS in his costings, without SCRUTINY from all your mates in the press is a disgrace!
Name one Abbott legitimate policy? Oh, and how many backflips on policy has Abbott made?
[
Yay! We get to show her off
]
That’s the spirit TSOP. I’m wating for the first fool to say she should be staying in Aus and dealing with domestic issues rather than travelling. I don’t think I’ll have to wait long. 🙂
[ Kakuru – you’re right – the by-election is the problem but could have been done with a majority – WHICH SHE SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN WITH A DECENT CAMPAUGN. ]
She still won. School kiddies will still learn that Miss Julia Gillard won the 2010 election. There’s no little asterisk that says “minority government” or “lousy campaign”. A win is a win.
The next election could be tricky… but let’s take it as it comes.
[Rod HagenPosted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 5:57 pm | Permalinkcos you sprout Green Talking points as Gospel.
Another member of the Fairtale Collective.
Frank, I can see that you very devoutly believe in your position. As I’ve said before I’m one of those people who sit around the “cusp” of the Greens and Labor – the rational end of Greens / the idealistic end of Labor.
I’m also a professional social scientist with some 35 years working experience on the clock. I have a fondness for evidence based material when it comes to issues like asylum seekers. I know that when speaking to the “devout” that numbers don’t often matter much, but humour me. Give me some evidence that Afghan asylum seekers are even a tenth – no, a thousandth – as likely to give you AIDS as the “Aussie” girl or boy next door?
Now point me to figures which DON’T indicate that Asylum seekers coming by boat are far, far more likely to be genuine refugees than those who arrive by air before lodging their refugee claims?
I’m sorry, but dismissing people who ask for even the most minimal real evidence as “sprouting Green Talking points as Gospel” simply harms the reputation of the Labor party that you love so well amongst people who actually think. I’m actually quite fond of the Labor Party too, but arguments based on silly epithets from their supporters don’t do their cause any good whatsoever.
Labor and the Greens clearly have to work out an effective way of working together in the coming years if either of them want to operate effectively. Those of us who sit around the boundary between the two can probably help with that. If the two parties don’t sort out such things neither are going to have a hope in hades of effectively achieving their primary aims, no matter how devout their beliefs.]
Enjoy living in La La land.
Using your logic we would now have an Abbott Govt with Nauru.
Which would you prefer ?
mick77 If i had more time i would like to have an intelligent debate with you, about the merits or otherwise of Julia. I believe however after reading your rants i would be going in against an unarmed man. give it a rest mate and walk of into the night.