Essential Research: 50-50

The latest weekly Essential Research survey finds the two parties still gridlocked at 50-50. Both parties are up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 45 per cent and Labor to 40 per cent – with the Greens down to 9 per cent. Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly since before the election: Julia Gillard’s approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval down three to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two to 43 per cent and down seven to 37 per cent. However, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is almost unchanged, up from 46-35 to 47-35. Fewer respondents now rate an election within 12 months as desirable – it’s now 43 per cent all, compared with 52 per cent supporting and 33 per cent opposed a fortnight ago – and there also fewer who deem it likely, although it’s still a clear majority at 59 per cent (down from 70 per cent a fortnight ago). More voters thought the media did a good (32 per cent) than a poor (23 per cent) job reporting the election and its aftermath, while Coalition supporters were found to be more likely to believe the media wasn’t fair to their side.

UPDATE: Some fine print reading from Bernard Keane in Crikey:

But in the wake of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor deciding to back Labor, there’s now a much stronger party split on that issue, with 75% of Liberal voters calling for another election, compared to 65% a fortnight ago, whereas support for another election among Labor and Green voters has fallen dramatically, with more than 70% of Labor and Green voters not wanting another election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,064 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [More voters thought the media did a good (32 per cent) than a poor (23 per cent) job reporting the election and its aftermath, while Coalition supporters are found to be more likely to believe the media wasn’t fair to their side.]

    They obviously didn’t poll many PBers 😉

  2. I’m surprised they didn’t poll on whether there should be a Royal Commission into the media or possible criminal charges for treason. These would undoubtedly have a very high level of public support in the community.

  3. Essential overestimated the ALP vote on the 21st Aug, underestimated the Green vote. 10 instead of 11.8%, however there is something I like about Essential, they move in a more intuitively sensible way, it could be the averaging over two weeks, it could be the sample/ I wonder if any of these firms look at the biggest opinion poll(election) and try and recalibrate for their ongoing credibility.

  4. I’d like to ask Coalition voters what else they thought the media should or could have done to produce fair and balanced coverage? As I’ve said before, I don’t mind the media being hard on the ALP, but I think it would be much more balanced if they were skeptical when Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb say they’re hedgehogs.

    From the previous thread:

    via twitter

    TurnbullMalcolm #nbn characteristically levelheaded commentary from @1petermartin http://j.mp/c3YHKz

    Is it just me or does anyone else get the feeling that this praise for Peter Martin implies what he thought about the Coalition’s election costings? …

  5. Gillard Approval: Don’t know +6% (13 to 19)
    Abbott Approval: Don’t know +4% (15 to 19)

    Don’t know = Dont care? Populace returning to “disengaged” gear for the next 33 months 😀

  6. Not much movement going on then, maybe things will heat up a bit when parliament returns and we get to see how our “nicer gentler’ pollies behave in QT 🙂

  7. It’s going to be a long and depressing three years for 75% ofTory voters given these figures.

    45% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove.
    Since this question was asked last month, approval has decreased by 1% and disapproval decreased by 3%.
    92% of Labor voters approve and only 1% disapprove.
    Among Liberal/National voters, 10% approve and 75% disapprove.

  8. Greens Policy:

    [26. # grant asylum seekers an asylum application visa (AAV) and assist without delay their move into the community provided medical and security checks are satisfied or after 14 days has passed, whichever occurs first]

    What do they call that again when you let anyone who rocks up into the community again?

    Oh thats right… Open Borders.

    I’m pretty sure it’s going to take longer than 14 days to check ANYONE for criminal or terrorist links, especially when they’ve burned their ID papers. Do the Greens think the Australian Government is Sherlock Holmes and will be able to check this with a snap of the fingers?

  9. [maybe things will heat up a bit when parliament returns and we get to see how our “nicer gentler’ pollies behave in QT]

    I’ll eat my hat if we see ‘gentler, kinder’ politics from Tone’s bunch in QT. 😮

  10. [especially when they’ve burned their ID papers.]
    Only a small % do this Toofy.
    Many come from areas that don’t have paper trails like the west.

  11. Are there any statistics on the number of people who have come to Australia by boat, seeking asylum, and have gone on to perpetrate criminal, anti-social or terrorist activities? This is a serious question, by the way. (I’m aware of one who gridlocked Perth a while ago by climbing a building with his kit off, but I don’t think that was great cause for alarm. Though sad for the individual, of course).

  12. TheTruthHurts
    #13

    you is rite , first time here
    a feat diogs has never acheived

    however you missed othr sections of that there polisy i quoted
    More vip , you continue to oppose Labors sendsible humane , health ans national security responsible polisy on A-S

  13. I ask the question above in an attempt to allay Truthy’s irrational fear of asylum-seekers. Though as a parent, my natural instinct is to just offer him a hug. How about it Truthy?

  14. [Only a small % do this Toofy.
    Many come from areas that don’t have paper trails like the west.]

    Probably going over old ground here again, but how’d they get to Indonesia?

    I think we should stick to talking about the Greens border non-protection policy which is a joke. I’d like to ask Sarah Hanson-Young whether she would be personally responsible for any criminal acts or terrorist attacks from her “out in 14 days” policy.

  15. I know many think the AS issue is boring & not important. My thinking differs.
    It is the battle for the heart & moral high ground of Australia.
    Somehow we lost it under the Howard regime.
    Whilst I don’t agree with the Greens open door, open slather approach I do commend them for being the heart & conscience of Australian politics today.

  16. [Truthy it is commonplace for your side of politics to bleat, cry and whinge about early elections – get back to your script.]

    I have a sneaking feeling that as soon as Gillies drops into negative numbers, the media including The Australian will be demanding the Independents call a new election and that this government has “had it’s time” and that the “punters will is being ignored”

  17. Spray

    “Are there any statistics on the number of people who have come to Australia by boat, seeking asylum, and have gone on to perpetrate criminal, anti-social or terrorist activities? ”

    I hate to give you obvous
    but seeing “refugees” settled in oz already passed all 3 checks , a dair dinkum refugee , plus cleared health and security checks , then they is an Aussie

    so there stats wont be any diff to any other aussie , ie most aussies is not criminals or terorist is they

  18. [I have a sneaking feeling that as soon as Gillies drops into negative numbers, the media including The Australian will be demanding the Independents call a new election and that this government has “had it’s time” and that the “punters will is being ignored”]

    That’s not a sneaking feeling Truthy, just a serious case of drifting off into Liberal LaLa land where losers are winners.

  19. From previous thread:

    Interesting:

    Greens outpoll Nationals in Non-Metro areas

    The Greens – 497,460 (9.72%)
    The Nationals – 460,388 (8.99)

    Much as I would love this to be a real statistic, unfortunately the real problem is that this represents 12 candidates for the Nats and 62 candidates for the Greens.

  20. [I’m pretty sure it’s going to take longer than 14 days to check ANYONE for criminal or terrorist links]
    3 months is more realistic I think, but whoever said the Greens needed to be real 👿
    They can come out with all this feelgood unrealistic stuff and demand thins like 40% ETS without being taken to task about the costs or concequences

    Hopefully they will be held to account come July when they will be responsible for labor getting or not getting it’s Bills through the senate

  21. Good point Ron. But I reckon the Andrew Bolts of this world would be tracking these figures if possible, and highlighting them when and where it suited their case. My gut (bleeding heart?) feeling is that any such stats would point to a generally positive contribution by those who have gone to such lengths to find a safe haven in our country.

  22. [I have a sneaking feeling that as soon as Gillies drops into negative numbers, the media including The Australian will be demanding the Independents call a new election and that this government has “had it’s time” and that the “punters will is being ignored”]

    Oh yeah? So why didn’t The Australian call for an early election in June – rather than just a change of leadership – when Kev’s figures started to tank?

    The answer being that even *they* did not seriously believe Abbott was electable at that stage.

  23. Is there a reason this drivel is happening? People bored? Nothing else to do? Need to prove or justify their useless existence?

    What is the point?

  24. Martin B – I think the problem being highlighted is how much strong third parties miss out under our current system. There are a disproportionate number of National Party votes concentrated in Queensland and regional areas of WA and New South Wales, where there is a history of strong NP representation.

    In SA in particular (not sure about Tassie and Victoria, but I suspect they aren’t much different) the Liberal Party as an “individual entity” is much stronger than in other states and it is they who rely on the Nats for preferences to win seats rather than the other way around. The Nats have no seats in SA and haven’t for ages (Karlene Maywald is an exception rather than a rule – she always operated as a pseudo-independent in both her seat and in the parliament).

    If we had first past the post then the National Party may well end up with NO seats at all, with current Nat seats going to the Libs instead. Not that the Greens would have any either, but…

    …under PR the Nats would have had their numbers curtailed somewhat (but not entirely) and the Greens would actually *have* the sort of representation that reflects the party’s popularity in the electorate.

    I know this prospect terrifies some of the Righties in the Labor Party, but I would jump for joy at the prospect, most especially because it means a seismic shift in the political make-up of the parliament, with the ultra-Righties replaced by the ultra-Lefites 😆

  25. [I have a sneaking feeling that as soon as Gillies drops into negative numbers, the media including The Australian will be demanding the Independents call a new election and that this government has “had it’s time” and that the “punters will is being ignored”]

    The OO have been demanding a fresh election on the Tuesday after the last one. First principles: whatever the OO says should be rebutted strongly and then ignored.

  26. under PR the Nats would have had their numbers curtailed somewhat (but not entirely) and the Greens would actually *have* the sort of representation that reflects the party’s popularity in the electorate.

    The problem with that is that is that you can’t just make simple comparisons about different voting systems like this.

    Firstly, under a PR system, it’s reasonable to assume the Nats would get a larger vote share. They would presumably lose relatively little of their vote in their strongholds, but would pick up a portion of the vote in the 138 divisions they aren’t currently running in.

    Secondly it’s one thing to say how the current party environment would look under a PR system, it’s another question to ask what would the party environment be in a few elections time. It’s quite likely that both the ALP and the Libs at least would fracture into smaller blocs.

    That’s not an argument for or against PR systems, just a note that the effects of such wouldn’t be entirely a matter of translating 2010 votes into a new system.

  27. [I’d like a new election NOW thank you very much.]

    Tough luck.

    It’s not the country’s fault your side ran a crappy leader. And don’t give me the “ZOMG! Did ya see how many seats he took!” argument. He should have won, considering the backlash against the ALP. Fact is, the Liberals, whose opinions you’re copy+pasting, only want an immediate new election because you lot know that everyone is out of cash but you guys will be able to whore yourselves out to the corporate world for some extra funding for an immediate election – knowing full well that if an election waits until 2013 or indeed late 2011, a lot of the existing scapegoats and strawmen that Abbott invoked will have disappeared.

    I am not going to indulge your bitter partisan request any further, because it is just petulant sour grapes. The same bitter thinking that’s led you to salaciously defame the Governor-General and demand she resign in disgrace because of someone to whom her daughter is married. (Read: because the GG didn’t call Abbott in on the 22nd and appoint him interim PM and call another election to appease spoiled elitists such as yourself)

  28. [with the Greens down to 9 per cent]

    If that had been the result at the election, the ALP would have romped in, most were obviously not voting for Abbott!.

  29. […under PR the Nats would have had their numbers curtailed somewhat (but not entirely) and the Greens would actually *have* the sort of representation that reflects the party’s popularity in the electorate.]

    Under PR, whether it is nationwide or state by state, I would imagine that the VIC/NSW Libs and Nats would either organise a QLD LNP type organisation or at least would organise their House tickets similar to their Senate tickets, as to guarantee they don’t split the proportional vote. I would imagine the Nats would try and make sure this didn’t disadvantage their representation in NSW, where majority of their numbers lie.

  30. Welcome, Spray.

    Re
    [Are there any statistics on the number of people who have come to Australia by boat, seeking asylum, and have gone on to perpetrate criminal, anti-social or terrorist activities?]

    I’m sure there are studies (Oz, USA etc) of that sort of the first Boat People wave (from Indochina, Persia/ Iran & other ME nations affected by fundamentalist Muslim dictatorships, Lebanese & Afghanistan wars), and I’ve vague memories of 2nd gen follow-ups. Very few of the first gen were any trouble at all: if you had the guts to risk what they did to get here, you were determined to make a go of it. BTW, in Oz, most were very antiCommunist & many still are Liberal supporters

    Youngsters from the first gen & children of the first were, on the whole, brighter & more industrious than Aussie kids: many top professionals come from this group. The same was true in the USA: there were jokes about all the academic prizes being won by Asians. Again, from memory, some problems were trauma-related; most (& they were, I think, below the national average) problems (usually drug related), arose from indebtedness & coercion.

    We must remember, though, that Fraser (& ?Hayden) developed a positive bipartisan response to Indochinese boat people. Boat arrivals were all over the media; but stories were positive, highlighting the horrors many experienced in their homelands, from pirates en route, in refugee camps. Of course there was negative racist reaction; but neither politicians nor the MSM encouraged it.

    The real differences between that first wave, and C21’s have been shock-jock & Hanson factors; that Howard was panicked into “Tampa”; RW media jettisoned the humanitarian Fraser-Hayden approach in favour of beating up fear & racism; and the ways boat people have been treated. Those – rather than differences in race, religion & political affiliation – may create differences we didn’t experience in the 70s & 80s.

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