Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey has the two parties locked together on 50-50, suggesting Labor has not received a dividend from its success in forming a minority government. The more recent part of the rolling two-week survey was conducted from last Tuesday, when the rural independents’ made their announcements, until yesterday, and it has dragged Labor down from the 51-49 recorded in the previous survey. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is unlikely to have been much in it either way: the Coalition is up a point to 44 per cent and Labor steady on 39 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Approval or disapproval of the independents’ decision was predictably split on party lines, for a total of 41 per cent approve and 45 per cent disapprove. Respondents were asked to rate the performance of the parties since the election and for some reason the Coalition rated better than Labor, recording a net positive rating of 9 per cent compared with 4 per cent for Labor. However, Julia Gillard was thought to have shown “more leadership abilities during the period since the election” than Tony Abbott, 47 per cent to 35 per cent. Forty-five per cent of respondents rated the increased strength of the Greens as good for Australia against 38 per cent bad, which goes against other polling conducted earlier. Conversely, 44 per cent agree the independents will hold too much power, with only 36 per cent disagreeing.

Elsewhere:

• Anna Bligh has raised the prospect of a return to compulsory preferential voting in Queensland, with The Australian reporting the matter is likely to be considered by a (Labor-dominated) parliamentary committee. Bligh notes concerns that the operation of different systems at state and federal level causes confusion and a higher informal vote, and it is indeed the case that the optional preferential states of New South Wales and Queensland generally have a slightly higher informal rate at federal elections than other states. However, that hasn’t been the case this time – in Queensland the informal vote was 5.45 per cent, against 5.55 per cent nationally (the national total admittedly having been pulled up by a 6.82 per cent rate in New South Wales). It is clear that Labor’s sudden enthusiasm for compulsory preferential in Queensland is due to their parlous electoral position, and the very high likelihood they will bleed votes to the Greens that might not return to them, as they mostly did at the federal election. As an opponent of electoral compulsion in all its forms, I would much sooner the confusion be resolved by a move to optional preferential voting at federal level – though Labor is most unlikely to be keen on this, as it would have cost them three seats at the federal election. UPDATE: As Kevin Bonham correctly notes in comments, it would also have saved them Denison. Note that Peter Brent at Mumble has expressed sentiments almost identical to my own.

• A by-election looms in the Western Australian state seat of Armadale, which Alannah MacTiernan vacated to make her failed run for Canning. Armadale is Labor’s safest seat, and the by-election will not be contested by the Liberals. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Also in the field are Owen Davies for the Greens, Jamie van Burgel for the Christian Democratic Party and independent John D. Tucak, who polled 298 votes as an upper house candidate in 2008. The by-election will be held on October 2.

• Another by-election following from the federal election is for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, vacated by newly elected Ryan MP Jane Prentice. Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reported on August 18 that even before his defeat in Ryan, dumped Liberal Michael Johnson was sizing up the seat. The Liberal National Party will hold its preselection tomorrow. The by-election will be held on October 23.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 6 of 14
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  1. actually was very impressed by windsor’s comment at start of his decision – this is comment combet should make today, and the only one – that he looks forward to another go at climate debate, following the mess of last year (words to effects). it is possible that collective momentum of both houses might get something up but I sincerely hope greens do not play hard ball again – that is what they did last year. why is wong being replaced? greens bad mouthed her and she might have ignored them last year but she seems a true fighter why change her mid stream?

  3. The battle for 2PP supremacy is going to be quite tight and I’m not sure that Labor is going to win it. Counting has resumed in O’Connor and with 14,000 votes counted the swing against Labor is 8.6%(ameliorated by the redistribution which cut the margin by 3.8%). The problem for Labor here is that the contest is between Labor and Crook and there could have been some strategic voting by Labor supporters to get rid of Tuckey.

    Also, 11,000 declaration votes have been counted in Melbourne with a 13.5% swing against Labor.

    You also have to factor in a larger increase in enrolments in the conservative four electorate than in the four Labor seats and a low turnout in Labor electorates (Melbourne only 90%). As I said, it’s going to be extremely tight.

  5. What annoys me most is the reality the greens made another step that much harder and that much later. Maybe a few natural disasters and some citizen convincing (whether by assembly, information or other) will make the first step more adventurous and strong, but equally a few mild years, no action elsewhere, and a strong lib showing at the next election whenever that is and last years destruction of the ets may in fact create a decade or more of total in action. We will see both the climate and the politics play out in the short term.

  7. did julia share these cabinet decisions with greens and indes. am not saying she needed them to ratify but under circumstances would have been courtesy. as said do NOT find combet courteous. bloody untion official, protecting jobs. from what?

  8. [Most Australians wouldn’t have a clue as to the great innovative achievements of the Rudd-Gillard government. The focus of the MSM is always on the MSM. I hope Julia does things at a slower, but more effective pace, and somehow getting the publicity, though it’s nigh impossible with the current state of the MSM.]

    feeney – before the election Rosa posted a list of Labor’s achievements since 07. It was very impressive but nobody knew about it until the day Kev made his parting speech. I wanted to give him a hug and then a great big kick in the backside for missing the political side of it. Nobody wins easily without realising you need to play the game on all fronts. I hate it but it’s a fact of life.

    Wewantpaul has a good point. Talk, talk, talk and then talk some more to all of us and explain, explain, explain. Don’t leave it the deniers every again. Bring everyone along. The believers are doing themselves a disservice by thinking this is easy. Even Garnaut said it will be the hardest of things to do.

  9. I think the Cabinet were sharing the decisons as they were made. Which is probably why Gillard announced the Ministry on Saturday.

    I don’t think Labor would seek Greens approval for any Ministry decisions.

  10. Think of the bright side of global warming. Sea levels may rise to the extent that the value of homes on the east coast of Sydney will diminish substantially. 😆

    Also, there is more skin on display in warmer weather. 😈

  12. Anybody noticed since the election that Tone has reverted to his peculiar way of walking rather than more normally like he was in the campaign? Only now he’s more hunched than he was prior to the election campaign. The straightjacket Robb and Minchin kept him in for 5 weeks must’ve done him some joint damage. 😆

  14. [Centre
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Think of the bright side of global warming. Sea levels may rise to the extent that the value of homes on the east coast of Sydney will diminish substantially. 😆

    Also, there is more skin on display in warmer weather. 😈 ]

    And the inhabitants of the seat of Lindsay will be able to luxuriate at Penrith Bay 😉

  15. yes confessions, tony has a MOST peculiar walk – he cannot claim farm work or horse or war injuries (like a recent american presential candidate). can anyone explain? he looks like a cowboy going to a shootout – that is only honest thing that pops to mind – surprised cartoonist haven’t picked it up

  16. deflationite
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    “For what it is worth, in my opinion a carbon tax is a far superior policy to the ETS/cap and trade option.”

    Prof Garnaut as inderdy ou wuld be aware examined both options , and found 6 clear advantages for a ETS , and so only recomend an ETS , and at a 5% cut rate So your view is suprising Only ‘benefit’ of a carbin tax is its simpler to ‘sell’ , but as Garnaut said quote ‘a Caron Tax is 2nd best option

    “Sadly, those with influence do not want a carbon tax, those who can profit from an ETS want it and they have the ears of the politicians.”

    wRONg , Coal Miners were as one publicly against an ETS

  17. [Also, there is more skin on display in warmer weather.]

    Puhleeze! I’m only just now getting over the trauma of seeing Tone in his budgies all through summer. I really don’t want to give him any more excuses to strut about semi-naked. 😀

  18. [Raising the cost of living for the vast majority of Australians for miniscule benefit to the climate (provided major polluters don’t act) is without doubt one of the most stupid policies I have ever heard.]

    But that isn’t what it is really all about, Centre. Flogging coal makes us oodles of money at present, but it won’t as the world moves on to other technologies. Developing the new technologies themselves, however, and flogging them, has a much longer “life expectancy”. I hasten to add that I’m not a “stop all coal mining now” proponent, and I think there is a place for the continued pursuit of clean coal technologies and the like in a balanced fashion, but we are in such a superb position to take real world leadership in the renewable / sustainable energy field that we’d be crazy not to take it, and the economic benefits that accrue from it. Even a bit of short term pain for long term gain can be well worth pursuing, you know, though the costs here often seem to be overstated and the benefits greatly underestimated.

  19. [Rudd dropped the ETS
    the 2pp went from 54 to 49
    and Rudds net approval went from +9 to -1

    when JG dropped the ETS (take two)
    the 2PP went from 55 to 52
    and JGs net rating went from +6 to +1

    So the GBNT fear was unfounded.]

    What blue-green said.

  20. geoffrey,

    It'” Bikers Bum Strut”. How would you walk if you’d had a piece of metal covered by a testicular crushing leather seat stuck up your nether regions for 3 or 4 hours a day.

  21. agreed agreed lefty e. there was rare majority and near consensus for several months. DD would have done trick. hope it comes again. assume it will but not too sure about julia on CC.

  22. [ tony has a MOST peculiar walk ]

    Cycling shoe walk it’s called. For those not obsessed with what is now the new mid life crisis accessory item, cycling clip-on shoes have soles that are completely rigid, this causes you to walk with an oddly simian gait. This combines with strange leg muscle anatomy that comes from lots of cycling to give you the Tony Abbott waddle.

  23. Ron

    Garnaut said we should have a carbon tax at $20 if the ETS didn’t go through.

    And I thought you lot were joking about the OO writing an article saying Gillard chose not to carry a handbag. Now I find out they actually did. WTF is going on over there?

  25. BH
    I thought and still think the rodent is evil. I’m not going to go into any detail on that topic. BUT and there’s always a but. Did he get the GST through what was a hostile senate ( eg Lees etc ). Correct me if I’m wrong but that is playing the politics that Rudd didn’t do and what I hope ALP will learn to do.

  28. The hard sell for any kind of CC taxes is being able to effectively explain the advantages of the policy. It’s not enough for the govt to say we will invest in renewables they have to be seen to be doing it and the case for doing so needs to be properly prosecuted.

    The GBNT was and will still be an effective brick to bash the govt with.

  29. Rod @ 268,

    I’ve got nothing against developing new technologies, renewables or sustainable energy. And I’m sure, nor Wong or Combet.

  31. ,The Waddler and the Pigeon-toed

    If your gait swings so that your feet are pointed outward or inward, you may end up with the duck or the pigeon-toed walking styles. But looking funny is the least of your problems. The open duck-walk stance has an inherent awkwardness and instability to it, as most of our weight rests on the back of the feet. While pigeon-toed may look okay on a model simpering down a ramp, on a man, the gait makes him look uncertain, like a turtle that retreats into its shell at the first sign of trouble. Stretching your hip and upper-leg muscles may loosen you up enough to get your feet pointed in the right direction.

  32. Paul_J@278

    The hard sell for any kind of CC taxes is being able to effectively explain the advantages of the policy. It’s not enough for the govt to say we will invest in renewables they have to be seen to be doing it and the case for doing so needs to be properly prosecuted.

    The GBNT was and will still be an effective brick to bash the govt with.

    Hear, Bloody Hear.

    something those living in Fantasyland fail to realise.

  33. Finally from me and for the record the Govt should be pouring a fortune into subsidies, direct research and any other leaver to have us ahead on clean coal, co2 storage, solar, wind, tidal etc getting ahead of those games would invaluable for the economy and environment whatever happens.

  34. Haydn

    Don’t jump to any conclusions about the TPP count in Melbourne so far.

    They have not actually done any new counting. They have just entered
    the first preference non-ordinary ALP vote totals as preferring the ALP
    over Libs and the first preference non-ordinary Lib votes as preferring
    Libs over ALP.

    They have not looked at any Green votes (or other minor parties)
    and distributed them according to preferences.

    ALP should get Melbourne by about 71% (not 58% as currently
    showing).

  36. Frank

    [Hear, Bloody Hear.

    something those living in Fantasyland fail to realise.]

    I didn’t know the EU, UK and NZ were in Fantasyland. Is that a new continent or something?

  37. Oh well, I suppose there were some of us who always thought his obsession with exercising would eventually be damaging in some way. I have to admit, Biker’s Bum wasn’t one I’d picked though.

  38. geoffrey @ 251
    [it is possible that collective momentum of both houses might get something up but I sincerely hope greens do not play hard ball again – that is what they did last year. why is wong being replaced? greens bad mouthed her and she might have ignored them last year but she seems a true fighter why change her mid stream?]

    Wong wasn’t “replaced”. She was promoted. 🙂 Finance is a much higher profile job than environment.

    And the Greens played an utterly cynical political game with Rudd’s ETS. They knew that they would gain votes if there was no ETS at the time of the next election & hence, refused to pass it in the Senate.

  44. [I thought and still think the rodent is evil. I’m not going to go into any detail on that topic. BUT and there’s always a but. Did he get the GST through what was a hostile senate ( eg Lees etc ). Correct me if I’m wrong but that is playing the politics that Rudd didn’t do and what I hope ALP will learn to do.]

    RNM – I’m with you there.

    Margaret Simons has written a really good piece on the OO’s election campaign and journos’ lack of factual reporting. If you can’t read it through this link try the Content Makers – crikey blog on this page.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/09/13/new-political-reporting-its-facts-not-fads-that-really-matter/#comments

  45. confessions @ 262
    [Anybody noticed since the election that Tone has reverted to his peculiar way of walking rather than more normally like he was in the campaign? Only now he’s more hunched than he was prior to the election campaign.]

    For a male chauvinist like Tone, it must have been deeply humiliating to his “manhood” to be beaten by a woman. 😀

  47. Jackol and blue-green

    Yes, the Treasury modeling gives the lie to all the cowardly party types who would jump at any shadow as an excuse to do nothing . The minority government cannot be hidden behind although that would be is in line with Ferguson’s BAU approach.

  48. [ Can her head get any bigger? ]

    Someone should tell the ABC that mixing Sarah Hanson-Young fat head with Clive Palmer fat girth does not amount to balance.

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