Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian offers a surprise Newspoll with the two-preferred vote exactly where their accurate pre-election poll had it: 50-50. However, both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor to 34 per cent, compared with 36.4 per cent at the pre-election poll and 38.0 per cent at the election, and the Coalition parties to 41 per cent, compared with 43.4 per cent and 43.6 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent, compared with 13.9 per cent and 11.8 per cent. Tony Abbott has dropped three points on preferred prime minister to 34 per cent, with Julia Gillard steady on 50 per cent. If nothing else, two 50-50 polls in 24 hours provide a nice rejoinder to the fresh-election-now lobby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,184 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Ron @ 3112

    [ But 81% of aussies is still culturally Christan ]

    What, pray tell, is “culturally Christian”? How does a secular Christian behave differently to a secular Muslim or Hindu?

    I was baptised and schooled as a Catholic, but I haven’t been to Mass for 3 years (apart from weddings and funerals). I also happen to think that the Vatican’s ‘rules’ on how I should run my life are complete hogwash. Am I a “cultural Christian”?

  2. Cuppa

    I cannot believe that people can be so naive. There are vested interests involved from all areas. Peoplle involved in the ABC are like others, with agendas and vested interests. Even though not obvious on the surface. Scratch away, and it will be there in all its glory. The taxpayer funded ABC should be impartial and unbiased. It should present the news clearly and concisely with no inneundo or misunderstanding at its core. The charter should be simple enough to follow. Some are using the excuse of not enough funding therefore, they will cut and paste stories from the OO. That is a poor excuse. Writing a story and presenting it in a clear and concise way, does not cost any more money. There is a narrative and an agenda. It must be stopped.

  3. 3122 victoria
    [Oakeshott now says that there will already be a mexican standoff on the first day of parliament]
    “Mexican Standoff” – on very recent history of Mexico’s huge toll in drug-trade related murders it would seem to me that it is a bit of a misnomer now.

  4. And the TPP distribution at the AEC is almost complete
    ‘Across Australia 14,088,260 electors enrolled to vote.
    Currently 93.21% of the primary vote has been counted.
    The two party preferred count is 93.13% complete.
    The election results on this website were last updated at 17/09/2010 12:00:41 PM.

    House of Representatives
    Australian Labor Party TPP 6,213,511 50.15%
    Liberal/National Coalition 6,177,565 49.85%

  5. [On a little side note, it looks as though all 150 HoR seats have been declared, as per the AEC website.]

    The 2PP is nearly complete , too, TSOP with about 10,000 to count in O’Connor, and the numbers for new England now completed. Allowing for these it looks like Labor have won the 2PP by about 30,000

  6. Jon

    your unhinged zealotary athiesm uncloakes you just as extremist as th Senator Fieldings of this world , devoids of any toleranse and balance , just another nutter but with a diff religious message of extremism

    keep digging yourself into looking more stupid , and more of a hater
    seeing normal athiests dont talk your lingo

  7. [Socrates
    Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 at 7:06 am | Permalink

    “I agree with the Pope landing in England- yech! The patron saint of harboring paedophiles flown in at taxpaye expense.”

    you’re an zealotary athiest moron , just like that arrogant dikhead Dawkins

    Most peoples hav commonsense on issue that SOME Church peoples stuffed up anbd ar ackowledging that , but 81% of aussies is still culturally Christan & 8% dont know ,

    leaves you in remaining 11% , out of which you is a fringe extremist religion hater of that 11% , beleiving in th claytons religion of atheism , a religion that believes in no religion]
    Ron
    Your post leaves me in no doubt as to your inclination to religiosity.

  8. [The 2PP is nearly complete , too, TSOP with about 10,000 to count in O’Connor, and the numbers for new England now completed. Allowing for these it looks like Labor have won the 2PP by about 30,000]

    Yep. I should also add that every state’s and territory’s Senate results have been declared too.

  9. I believe there is no doubt that the ABC is biased toward the coalition the only thing to be resolved is, what’s going to be done about it. The greens, Indies and the alp must instigate a parliamentary inquiry into this matter or be prepared to cop heaps more bias. I note that malcolm T has another free kick in The Drum today.

  10. Ron

    To describe sexual abuse as “stuffing up” is quite frankly offensive. To suggest that the church “acknowledges” the abuse is quite simply rubbish. The church has been dragged kicking and screaming to give any form of acknowledgement or confession of wrongdoing. They continue to deny the victims of abuse the acknowledgement they deserve, they continue to refuse to be open and transparent about what they have done. The fact is the church has harboured paedophiles, hid paedophiles, and continued to allow them access to children knowing they had committed these appalling crimes. the church deserves to be condemend for its actions, and those who defend them deserve to be likewise condemened.

  11. [retiredleftie
    Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 at 12:42 pm | Permalink
    I believe there is no doubt that the ABC is biased toward the coalition the only thing to be resolved is, what’s going to be done about it. The greens, Indies and the alp must instigate a parliamentary inquiry into this matter or be prepared to cop heaps more bias. I note that malcolm T has another free kick in The Drum today.
    ]

    i would say the greens are the best bet Senator Brown and Ludlam.

    We also have to ask Senator Conroy when and whom appoint the new MD, is it the Board or the Gov. and when do the members of this board gradually stand down.

    they are resonable questions that should be ask.

  12. [leaves you in remaining 11% , out of which you is a fringe extremist religion hater of that 11% , beleiving in th claytons religion of atheism , a religion that believes in no religion]

    I’m in the minority that believes in correct spelling and good grammar, including the use of apostrophes.

  13. [On balance, they provide me with a better source of news …]

    Was the ironic use of the qualifier “on balance” deliberate or just incompetence? 😉

  14. Thanks, Rod.

    Your post on the “Howie” references is spot on. Howard just cannot be referred to in such human friendly terms.

    I am trying to locate a very funny essay by Clive James on that very topic. He wrote it after the Sydney Olympics.

    A net hunt leads me to think it may be in ‘Even as we Speak’ which includes Postcards from the Sydney Olympics 2000.

    I emailed Clive James (!) to ask.

    Someone may have it on their bookshelf, in the meantime. Look for Hoogie, Thorpie and The Golden Lolly.

  15. [Was the ironic use of the qualifier “on balance” deliberate or just incompetence?]

    It was deliberate. The ABC is far more balanced in my view than the majority of other news sources.

    If it’s so apparent to the majority of Australians that the ABC are treasonous villians deserving of being criminally charged I wonder why the Government haven’t made any moves to do this. Perhaps because they realise it’s only a fringe group who hold this view and any moves to interfere with the ABC would see a large backlash against them.

  16. [I believe there is no doubt that the ABC is biased toward the coalition]

    The right believe there is no doubt that the ABC is biased toward Labor. I just think they are lazy and under-resourced which is what Menadue said. I note that he never said the ABC was biased.

  17. [BK

    you cann’t handle th pressure of biggottary exposed]
    Ron
    I can handle any logical, rational, factual, evidence-based argument. And I can even change my mind as a result.
    How about you?

  18. [The ABC is far more balanced in my view than the majority of other news sources.]

    You’d have trouble substantiating that claim, but be my guest …

  19. Well how about you substantiate your claim that the ABC is biased Cuppa? Several people here have debunked several of your ‘proofs’ that the ABC is biased. In the end it’s a matter of opinion.

  20. Ron
    From my link @3144

    [The Case of the Pope delivers a devastating indictment of the way the Vatican has run a secret legal system that has shielded paedophile priests from criminal trial around the world. Is the Pope morally responsible or legally liable under domestic or international law for the negligence that has allowed so many terrible crimes to go unpunished? Should he and his seat of power, the Holy See, continue to enjoy an immunity that places them above the law? To what extent do Vatican dogmas conflict with human rights treatise, and why has the United Nations allowed this church – alone of religions and NGOs – a privileged platform to promote them?
    Geoffrey Robertson QC demonstrates a deep respect for the good works of Catholics and their church. But, he argues, unless Pope Benedict XVI can divest himself of the beguilements of statehood and devotion to obsolete canon law, the Vatican will remain in grave breach of the convention on the Right of the Child and in some other respects, an enemy of human rights.]

    http://www2.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/events/2010/20100908t1830vSZT.aspx

    it’s not bigotry.

    and my other link which discusses the taxpayer funding of the Pope’s UK visit together with media bias

    http://www.stephenfry.com/2010/09/16/dailymailhate/

  21. [ keep digging yourself into looking more stupid , and more of a hater
    seeing normal athiests dont talk your lingo ]

    For someone who supposedly prescribes to a religion that preaches the judging others is wrong that is a lot of bile, but of course hypocrisy is one of it’s other great traits. You can call me a bigot or stupid or a zealot all you like, but labelling others;

    [ fringe extremist religion hater.. beleiving in th claytons religion of atheism ]

    Weakens your argument somewhat.

  22. Not so much “bias”, but something not entirely expected from ABC Sydney 7pm News the other nite, Matt Wordsworth, the state political journalist, was revealing a story on various government hospital projects being late or delayed; he signed off his report with wtte “if you have any first hand information on this story, email/tweet me”

    I thought that was quite déclassé for the ABC…

  23. those gutter snip Athiests here on PB who use pedafiles as a patthetic means to attack religion as a whole , hypocritacally pretend there is no athiest pedafiles

    its th same bile argument used against Muslims , ie Muslims and Muslum preachers implied is all terrorists lovers

    Oh I forgots there is no proof that whole Muslim clergy organization does that , but spin it out there in airways anyway as untolerant anti muslum hatred

  24. The attack on church and on Ron for daring to state the obvious is frankly the kind o stupid generalization, arrogant and inhumane way I expect the really loony right fringe to behave. If you are an actual victim (and gladly I am not but I have been close to some) then such broad and ignorant statements devalue the crimes committed against you. one priest / minister elder committed a vile crime and others may have conspired or attempted to pervert the course of justice. They should be in jail.

    But the need to vilify the little oldlady who prays in the back row every week. And probably held you while you cried is very baby with bath water stuff

  25. [Well how about you substantiate your claim that the ABC is biased Cuppa? ]

    I gave you one earlier in the thread. The coverage of the AFP’s finalising the “leak” enquiry. The ABC gave a massive three sentences (60 words) of coverage; the SMH gave 11 paragraphs (300+ words). The ABC then quickly demoted the story status and replaced it with a “Federal Opposition says … ” claim, as I predicted it would.

  26. That’s not proof Cuppa by any stretch of the word. They didn’t ‘demote’ the story and it was replaced with an AAP story which could easily be explained by the under-resourcing argument. Next?

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