Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian offers a surprise Newspoll with the two-preferred vote exactly where their accurate pre-election poll had it: 50-50. However, both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor to 34 per cent, compared with 36.4 per cent at the pre-election poll and 38.0 per cent at the election, and the Coalition parties to 41 per cent, compared with 43.4 per cent and 43.6 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent, compared with 13.9 per cent and 11.8 per cent. Tony Abbott has dropped three points on preferred prime minister to 34 per cent, with Julia Gillard steady on 50 per cent. If nothing else, two 50-50 polls in 24 hours provide a nice rejoinder to the fresh-election-now lobby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,184 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 63 of 64
1 … 62 63 64

  1. [There has been an allegation of a leak. No leak has been proven to have occurred, therefore any story which says “the leak” is factualy incorrect. A factually correct story would say “the alleged leak”.]

    No, there was a leak. The story came from somewhere and was based on confidential advice. Who the leak came from is disputed.

  2. [No, there was a leak. The story came from somewhere and was based on confidential advice. Who the leak came from is disputed.]
    Semantics, Itep, but if the Coalition distributed the document (for whatever purpose) it would not be a leak.

  3. [I know there will always be snakes in the grass.
    You just do.
    Many can be lethal.
    So what do you do when you are walking through the grass.To not get bitten.?
    Stamp your feet, agitate, make noise.
    No point whingeing, snakes don’t understand.
    Make noise.]

    Grey,

    One thing you shouldn’t do is what some here do. That is, deny there ARE snakes, mock the very idea that there could be snakes. And when snakes are pointed out to you, turn a blind eye and make excuses.

  4. [but if the Coalition distributed the document (for whatever purpose) it would not be a leak.]

    Well I’m still of the view that it would be. Parties leak against themselves from time to time for various purposes. But I won’t go on ;).

  5. Ltep, with respect, I think you are splitting hairs a little. In internet terms the grab from the story that serves as the link performs the same purpose as the headline.

    This type of ABC incompetency s becoming very. very commonplace. The stories on the 2pp on the day the AEC changed removes seats from the count was the worst example. Then there was the Oakeshott in it for the salary angle they started yesterday with no attribution.

    I came into the election campaign not especially engaged. I have not been seeking out bias, but in far too many cases it has leapt up and hit me in the face.

    I don’t care about News Ltd particularly. It is privately owned and that buys you the bias you prefer. The ABC is very important to Australia. It should be reliable and impartial.

  6. Itep, if ABC showed incompetence now and again, I would agree with you that there is no bias. However, in recent times, I have noted the “incompetence” seems to go against Labor most of the times.
    For example, before the elction, I watched a segment on 7.30 report. It was about swinging voters. The interview asked the husband who he was leaning towards? Husband replied Libs. Then interviewer asked the wife who she was leaning towards. She replied Labor. She then asked the wife “Can TA do anything to make you change your mind?” You see, the last bit was completely unnecessary and it does create an impression in one’s mind that there is some bias against Labor.

  8. The Oakeshott story was fine. It was just saying he was not seeking the job for the perks of the office. I never assumed he was, but it’s good to know.

    The 2PP stories were unfortunate, but I think more a case of a broad misunderstanding of electoral politics in the media generally. That’s been evident in a lot of reporting of the election and aftermath. A lot of the problems I have with the ABC aren’t to do with alleged bias, but a move away from quality reporting. You and others see a concerted anti-Labor effort; I see a dumbing down of news coverage. Different issues.

  9. [e story came from somewhere and was based on confidential advice. Who the leak came from is disputed.]

    The other option might be that the accounting firm was worried about the costings’ Big Black Holes and someone working on it wasn’t happy. That accounting firm had the paperwork for 2 months before the election.

    Of course I still think Robb did the leaking himself to cover up his dodgy figures.

  10. And to all those who feel especially aggrieved by allegations of bias Senate estimates will be held in the week of 18 October. The ABC must appear and must answer any questions. In the past Liberal senators used to use this opportunity to extnesively go over lists of purported bias and it did have the effect of a substantial tightening of ABC editorial policy.

  11. [The Oakeshott story was fine.]

    Except that it failed to mention any source for the allegation. It was the article equivalent of a “passive voice” sentence.

  12. Socrates
    Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 at 7:06 am | Permalink

    “I agree with the Pope landing in England- yech! The patron saint of harboring paedophiles flown in at taxpaye expense.”

    you’re an zealotary athiest moron , just like that arrogant dikhead Dawkins

    Most peoples hav commonsense on issue that SOME Church peoples stuffed up anbd ar ackowledging that , but 81% of aussies is still culturally Christan & 8% dont know ,

    leaves you in remaining 11% , out of which you is a fringe extremist religion hater of that 11% , beleiving in th claytons religion of atheism , a religion that believes in no religion

  13. Itep

    [No, there was a leak. The story came from somewhere and was based on confidential advice. Who the leak came from is disputed.]

    I was referring to treasury, where the ABC clearly and unambiguously state there was a treasury leak. There has been only an allegation of a treasury leak. For the ABC to state there was a treasury leak is simply wrong.

  15. Does it really matter who the source was triton? It goes without saying that there will be suspicions within certain parts of the community as to his motives on any given matter. Perhaps it was a ‘devil’s advocate’ question from a journalist. It still gave him the opportunity to say that wasn’t what he was in it for.

    In the end there were allegations from some within the Liberal Party that this is what he was after (e.g. the tweet from Bob Baldwin).

  16. [I’m not making it hard BG, merely pointing out the pitfalls that lie ahead, nobody but the most flowery idealist will thank the government for increasing tax and consequently prices once the warm fuzzies have worn off. If you stab somebodies hip pocket nerve the result is that you invariably get kicked. I think KR’s decline was a combination of factors sure, one was the backflipping but another was the branding as a GBNT. This was an extremely simplistic but effective strategy.

    This gained traction partly I think because the drought that bought climate change to such prominence at the end of JWH’s time had mostly broken and what was the most obvious example of the effects of CC seen by people on the news night after night went away.

    I’m not sure if calling it anything different will make much difference but the political realities make this issue a difficult and thankless one IMHO.]

    Yes, I agree Jon (though I’d also add “necessary” to “difficult and thankless” for the sake of completeness, both environmentally and politically). It is one reason why the idea behind the “citizens assembly” had some value (and perhaps even still does) , though the process of announcement etc was not in the face of the aggressive media response. There are still important understandings that have to be properly “sold” to the public first, if the notion of actually imposing costs / taxes is to be successfully negotiated.

  17. Needless to say, the offending story has now been updated and the update will no doubt bring much joy to Cuppa 😉

    [The Federal Opposition says an Australian Federal Police (AFP) investigation shows a leak which revealed a hole in the Coalition’s election costings must have come from Treasurer Wayne Swan’s office.]

  20. Itep

    The next headline should be that the treasurer Wayne Swan believes that the coalitions allegations of a leak by treasury was a political stunt. Because that is what he has said now.

  21. [ you’re an zealotary athiest moron , just like that arrogant dikhead Dawkins ]

    Me too.

    [ SOME Church peoples stuffed up ]

    No they protected paedophiles and hid in their palatial gold and marble palaces while spouting hypocritical moralistic poison. Slight difference.

    Atheism is the absence of a belief system FWIW.

  22. Oakshott now says that there will already be a mexican standoff on the first day of parliament because the coalition appear to be backing away from the parliamentary reform agreeement.

  23. victoria, the article includes it as the last sentence of the story:

    [But a spokesman for Mr Swan says the investigation shows the Coalition’s claims were a political stunt.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/17/3014321.htm

    Personally, I’d rearrange the paragraphs. Paragraph 1 should be “The AFP today issued a statement…”. This should be followed up by “The Opposition says” and this by “A spokesman for Mr Swan”.

    But I don’t write for the ABC.

  25. [There needs to be a sticky thread on media bias 😉 ]

    Maybe there should be. Media bias and manipulation has a profound, incalculable effect on voter perceptions and ballot-box decisions. Hence it impacts fundamentally on the movements of democracy itself. There is no other force which speaks directly to millions of voters, right where they live every day. The media is the most powerful presence in a democracy, so it’s vital it be closely scrutinised and held to account where possible.

  28. [Rod Hagen. Are you a (former, maybe) Brighton resident? Taa.]

    No, cw, though I was born close to Brighton, England and used to fish off the jetty at the back of the Brighton le Sands baths in Botany Bay when I was teenager! 😉

    Basic details can be found at http://rodhagen.customer.netspace.net.au/ in the “Hagen Family Home Pages” section.

  29. Ron

    [but 81% of aussies is still culturally Christan]

    If more of those 81% demanded the church hierarchy stop hiding paedophiles and start acting in the interests of the many thousands of children that have been sexually abused then your claims might have some merit. The church has conducted itself in an absolutely disgraceful manner, and those who refuse to condemn it for its actions are little more than cowards.

  30. [ though I’d also add “necessary” to “difficult and thankless” for the sake of completeness, both environmentally and politically ]

    Rod I completely agree, the trick will be pulling it off without sacrificing themselves to principle.

  31. Victoria, the obvious defence would be they’ve pulled their own article and replaced it with an AAP one. This goes back to my early point that they shouldn’t be competing with the tabloid news (www.news.com.au) but should be aiming for quality reporting.

  32. Jon
    Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    to socrates ‘you’re an zealotary athiest moron , just like that arrogant dikhead Dawkins ”

    “Me too. ”

    well at least you stupid enuf to see yourself in a mirror
    rest of your post was typical biggotted trash

  34. Itep – And therein sits my major issue with their ABC –
    [The Federal Opposition says….]
    If I hear that again on RN (that’s you Fran), Local ABC or Newsradio (Mr Benson) I’ll………… There are other opinions and a real live Government out there, in case they missed it. Surely what the Govt says is as (or more) important than what the Opposition says.

  35. G’day people,
    Has anyone else mentioned the Avaaz campaign against the extreme right-wing media moguls extreme ?

    “Crony-media” and its incestuous combination of unscrupulous politicians and biased reporting is a rising threat to democracy in many countries, from Italy to the US to Australia.”

    “The subversion of democracy by the collusion of political leaders and media-corporations is a threat to all the things we care about, from climate change to poverty to human rights. With our global reach, Avaaz might be one of the only organizations that can fight this rising threat to democracy”

    They’re asking for donations to fight the intrusion of these forces into Canada (they must be the last bastion!!). You can get more information here:
    https://secure.avaaz.org/en/stand_up_to_crony_media/?vl.

    Seems to me that this might be the beginning of a real force for action against Murdoch and co.

  36. Itep

    I listened to 774 ABC news at 11.00 a.m. , the first story off the rank was the AFP investigations. The wording used immediately suggested that the AFP had found that Swan had leaked the costings. It was only at the very last few words, that even you listened close enough, it was according to the coalition. This is not incompetency. It is deliberate.

  37. [Needless to say, the offending story has now been updated and the update will no doubt bring much joy to Cuppa 😉

    The Federal Opposition says an Australian Federal Police (AFP) investigation shows a leak which revealed a hole in the Coalition’s election costings must have come from Treasurer Wayne Swan’s office.]

    Not joy, Ltep. The sarcasm is not called for, this is serious. It does vindicate what I said earlier in the thread (September 17, 2010 at 9:54 am):

    [How long do you think the 60-word story will have top-of-the-page ranking on their ABC? I give it a couple of hours, tops. To be replaced, naturally, by today’s Coalition talking point/beat-up, led in with the phrase:

    The Federal Opposition says …]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/13/newspoll-50-50-3/comment-page-61/#comment-633877

    “The Federal Opposition says…” Sure as night follows day practically every hourly radio ‘news’ bulletin will be dominated by that phrase.

  38. billy, do I support and defend the ABC? Unashamedly so. They are my chosen source of news for a reason. On balance, they provide me with a better source of news than any other available in Australia.

  40. [ rest of your post was typical biggotted trash ]

    Ron,

    Or perhaps someone talking from direct experience, rather that fanciful imaginings?

    [ well at least you stupid enuf to see yourself in a mirror ]

    I think you will find mirrors work regardless of IQ, just test it you and will see, of course they do rely on one having one’s eyes open.

  41. [It goes without saying that there will be suspicions within certain parts of the community as to his motives on any given matter. Perhaps it was a ‘devil’s advocate’ question from a journalist. It still gave him the opportunity to say that wasn’t what he was in it for]

    The scrolling banner headline for nearly the entire day on ABC24 was Oakeshott denies he’s in it for money. Why wasn’t it ‘Oakeshott says he’s in it for reform’ or ‘Liberal’s deny they’re out to get Oakeshott with baseless claim’ or ‘Oakeshott may find it difficult to serve his electorate as speaker’? It is gutter journalism at best.

  42. Jon

    you placed yourself on a loony extremist branch all by silly yourself , which makes it easy to expose you as th biggotted circus clown you is

    and dont create sympathy strawman arguemnts here , its lame

  43. ltep, can you do it with a bit less chauvinist intensity,it is tortuous to see you make a fool of yourself trying to defend the indefensible.

  45. [It is gutter journalism at best.]

    Yes, but again, this goes back to my point about a need to move away from competing with the tabloids. It’s not necessarily indicative of bias although I accept that’s how you see it.

    This is all very repetitive.

  46. From the OO
    “We lost because we didn’t win enough seats,” the Opposition Leader told 3AW this morning.

    What happened to the 2pp position, or the primary vote position. Has he accepted that they actually didn’t win the election

  49. [It is not paranoia. It is deliberate and insidious.]

    Very true, I think, Victoria. There is a long-established pattern which is too glaring to brush away, as some here do, with the benefit of the doubt, as in, “Oh, it’s just incompetence.” Or “it’s just stupidity … or underfunding … or carelessness … or inexperience” etc.

    There comes a point where the benefit of the doubt is exhausted and you must look for other explanations which make sense.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 63 of 64
1 … 62 63 64