Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian offers a surprise Newspoll with the two-preferred vote exactly where their accurate pre-election poll had it: 50-50. However, both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor to 34 per cent, compared with 36.4 per cent at the pre-election poll and 38.0 per cent at the election, and the Coalition parties to 41 per cent, compared with 43.4 per cent and 43.6 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent, compared with 13.9 per cent and 11.8 per cent. Tony Abbott has dropped three points on preferred prime minister to 34 per cent, with Julia Gillard steady on 50 per cent. If nothing else, two 50-50 polls in 24 hours provide a nice rejoinder to the fresh-election-now lobby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,184 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Oh no, 34% ALP primary. Where is the NSW Right when you need them to fix things 😉 Jokes aside, I’m not going to worry about polls until next year. Even if the Coalition managed to be 60/40 ahead next week I wouldn’t care because things can change quite a lot in a few months.

  7. I don’t think Labor should be too concerned about this poll yet. The real question will be how it all looks after a few weeks of parliament under the new rules. Labor should keep on about CostingGate though. They have to make the public realise that the Libeals suck at economcis, even if that requires discipline, focus and people staying on message till beyond the next focus group report.

    As for teh story on OPV in Qld, I know Bligh is in trouble but I doubt that sort of backflip will do anything other than cost her votes now. It is obviously cynically motivated, and undermines the credibility for all Labor’s previous defences of OPV.

  9. Soc

    the economic meme is being jealously defended by the blaggards in their msm

    The blackhole never got a run

    labor is really hard pressed to get out the economic message

  12. Costings hasnt got legs….the msm have seen to that….and the over-riding perception out there in voter land is that fibs do better economics than lab

  16. Why is Newspoll using 2007 preference flows when we have just had an election? Are the 2010 preference flows not yet clear enough to be employed? With what we do know about the 2010 flows wouldn’t Labor would do better than 50-50 … No?

  17. Socrates is right. The secret to success from now on is

    [Labor should keep on about CostingGate though. They have to make the public realise that the Libeals suck at economcis, even if that requires discipline, focus and people staying on message till beyond the next focus group report.]

    Tanya P said on Q&A that they hadn’t sold their successes well enough. I agree with that but they also have to point out the Coalition’s weaknesses. Costello & Howard didn’t accumulate enough savings during the massive mining boom years so keep on telling us about that and costingsgate.

  18. Gusface,

    TBH I don’t know that the govt is really trying all that hard at the moment. They are running pretty quiet, which they did a lot of in their first term. So much so that I think by the start of this year the electorate really weren’t sure what they had actually done.

    The govt need to be banging on about the costings – right through the remainder of this year. It’s the one thing the Libs do well. They hammer on and on and on. We make fun of them for it, but in reality, they seem to be punching through to the electorate. What Labor is doing (or not doing as the case may be) is. not. working.

  20. Think the most concerning aspect at this stage, apart from a couple of the usually good media performers in Crean and Conroy, there is no oomph no getting stuck in to these media hacks, no replying immediately to the crap that is being spouted by the Coalition spokespersons. A good example is today on the ABC, throughout their main bulletins across the nation between 11am and 3pm, on midday report, plus on Sky News, all day…that mongrel immigration shadow, the gutter dweller, Morrison had a ball plastering the Govts asylum seeker policy, the detention centres, the lack of consultation with shires and councils, the secret deals, the riots that are bound to happen with over crowding and on it went…where was the govts attacking response? deafening silence.
    They have got to get some mongrel into themselves. Surely someone here has the ear of someone in the party they can knock some sense into and get the message into their feeble public relation brain. It happened throughout the election campaign and now they sit back and its all no response. I’m at a loss, it is damn fundamental stuff.
    I cannot believe the lesson has not yet been understood by the Labor strategists.

  21. [Costings hasnt got legs….the msm have seen to that….and the over-riding perception out there in voter land is that fibs do better economics than lab]
    Issues only get legs if someone is banging on about it. If Labor go quiet, then the media give it up. I really hope that the govt isn’t thinking that the only reason they’re not getting through to the electorate is because of a biased media that won’t tell the story. It’s the govt’s job to tell the story.

  26. David @ 20:
    That was exactly my point earlier today. The govt was nowhere to be seen, or heard, on the asylum seeker issue. Which means the media just report what they’ve got – which is Scott Morrison being revolting. I was yelling at my radio in the car today during the World Today wondering where on earth the govt was. It doesn’t even have to be the relevant minister. Someone should be listening to everything, and there should be, at a minimum, press releases going out to address every falsehood, half truth and misinformation that the opposition are peddling.

    Seriously – Labor’s media strategy sucks right now!

  27. When are they putting the full distributions of preferences on the AEC website? You would think that they would be needed in seats decided on preferences for the declaration but most seats are declared and there are non that I can find.

  28. I’ve been having problems logging-in for some reason….

    Anyways does someone here have the link to the TPP count I wanna see how Gillies going on her mandate.

  30. THat seems to leave a whopping 11% 1st pref vote for other minor parties and independents! I guess those Indies must have made a serious impression!

    Just by the way, following on from earlier discussion in the previous thread, I wonder what percentage of Australians realise that the dull older bloke on Q&A with the name like a medical accessory would have been the Deputy Prime Minister if Abbott had won the election? Come to think of it, I wonder how many realise that the previous member in Oakeshott’s seat was actually the Deputy PM for the last couple of years of the Howard government?

    Less than 5% in both cases, I reckon!

  32. would normally agree on issues being banged on and on…but the msm has made its mind up on this…when u hear the abc tell you that it was basically a case of different interpretations of assumptions and always using the OO’s lower figure of 7Bill rather than 11Bill then you have to worry….

  34. Fiz Im tired of emailing Labor MP’s and Ministers about this and nothing changes. Frankly they are a shambles on the media front, Julia better start getting off her backside and start leading from the front and giving some orders.

  36. [then why did labor lose more seats ie

    what other factors have to be taken into account?]

    They lost votes in too many of the wrong places, where their margins were slim, Gus, and won some to compensate, for the most part, in seats that they already held.

  37. But imaXXXXXandivote @32, the govt can’t just give up. If they desert the field then the opposition wins. Simple as that. And you’ve got ‘pink batts’, ‘school halls’, and ‘debt/waste’ all over again.

  41. David,

    Do you know who is running govt media strategy? If anyone?

    I think it’s time they hired a serious professional in the media/marketing field. Cut back on focus groups and pay the money to someone who can help them sell their message, even if they’re an outsider.

  42. [The 5.74 per cent drop in their primary vote may have been a factor.]

    2010

    Greens +6% @ 13%

    Labor -6% @ 38%

    Coalition +1% @ 42

    Greens preference flows 65% to Labor, 35% Libs

    2010 Total Labor Total 38% + 13%(0.65) = 46.45%

    2007

    Labor 44%

    Coalition 41%

    Greens 7%

    Greens preference flows 64% to Labor, 36% Libs

    2007 Labor Total 44% + 6%(0.64) = 47.84%

    Leeching of voters to Greens = Death of Labor

  43. Gusface, it doesn’t make sense to say “50/50 based on the 2010 preference flow”. Do you mean, “the Newspoll primary votes on the 2010 preference flow”? If so, you get 50-50, and as this was also the result at the election, you would assume the same result in terms of seats.

  44. [Who are these mysterious others.]

    Good question. Does this indicate that there is general community respect for the work that O,W and Wilke have done since the election?

  45. Calm, down. Geez, you are freaked out children. Admittedly I was the the same pre-election. They can’t kill her now. She has at least a month before they do the business. Pull’s one out of the hat and shes’s famous. Any chat about the NBN and they will try to silence her so fast they won’t need a filter.Anything will do. She’s fighting the devil. The Devil is canny and clever and shows no pity. Hope she wins.

  46. Fiz@41

    David,

    Do you know who is running govt media strategy? If anyone?

    I think it’s time they hired a serious professional in the media/marketing field. Cut back on focus groups and pay the money to someone who can help them sell their message, even if they’re an outsider.

    And if the Govt put out a media rsponse to EVERY issue the media would’ve cherrypicked tge most negative aspect and run with it.

  49. Fiz

    I dont advocate giving up…i think the hung parlt situation gives labor a great opportunity to draw a line under the issues u mention…they cant outfight murdochs media goons…they have to get joe punter to believe they have a positive agenda and will achieve results…they can marginalise the fibs by painting them as the party of the past paradigm

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