Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey has the two parties locked together on 50-50, suggesting Labor has not received a dividend from its success in forming a minority government. The more recent part of the rolling two-week survey was conducted from last Tuesday, when the rural independents’ made their announcements, until yesterday, and it has dragged Labor down from the 51-49 recorded in the previous survey. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is unlikely to have been much in it either way: the Coalition is up a point to 44 per cent and Labor steady on 39 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Approval or disapproval of the independents’ decision was predictably split on party lines, for a total of 41 per cent approve and 45 per cent disapprove. Respondents were asked to rate the performance of the parties since the election and for some reason the Coalition rated better than Labor, recording a net positive rating of 9 per cent compared with 4 per cent for Labor. However, Julia Gillard was thought to have shown “more leadership abilities during the period since the election” than Tony Abbott, 47 per cent to 35 per cent. Forty-five per cent of respondents rated the increased strength of the Greens as good for Australia against 38 per cent bad, which goes against other polling conducted earlier. Conversely, 44 per cent agree the independents will hold too much power, with only 36 per cent disagreeing.

Elsewhere:

• Anna Bligh has raised the prospect of a return to compulsory preferential voting in Queensland, with The Australian reporting the matter is likely to be considered by a (Labor-dominated) parliamentary committee. Bligh notes concerns that the operation of different systems at state and federal level causes confusion and a higher informal vote, and it is indeed the case that the optional preferential states of New South Wales and Queensland generally have a slightly higher informal rate at federal elections than other states. However, that hasn’t been the case this time – in Queensland the informal vote was 5.45 per cent, against 5.55 per cent nationally (the national total admittedly having been pulled up by a 6.82 per cent rate in New South Wales). It is clear that Labor’s sudden enthusiasm for compulsory preferential in Queensland is due to their parlous electoral position, and the very high likelihood they will bleed votes to the Greens that might not return to them, as they mostly did at the federal election. As an opponent of electoral compulsion in all its forms, I would much sooner the confusion be resolved by a move to optional preferential voting at federal level – though Labor is most unlikely to be keen on this, as it would have cost them three seats at the federal election. UPDATE: As Kevin Bonham correctly notes in comments, it would also have saved them Denison. Note that Peter Brent at Mumble has expressed sentiments almost identical to my own.

• A by-election looms in the Western Australian state seat of Armadale, which Alannah MacTiernan vacated to make her failed run for Canning. Armadale is Labor’s safest seat, and the by-election will not be contested by the Liberals. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Also in the field are Owen Davies for the Greens, Jamie van Burgel for the Christian Democratic Party and independent John D. Tucak, who polled 298 votes as an upper house candidate in 2008. The by-election will be held on October 2.

• Another by-election following from the federal election is for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, vacated by newly elected Ryan MP Jane Prentice. Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reported on August 18 that even before his defeat in Ryan, dumped Liberal Michael Johnson was sizing up the seat. The Liberal National Party will hold its preselection tomorrow. The by-election will be held on October 23.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  4. [It is clearly all sweetness and light in Townsville, TTH!]

    Townsville has some crime, just like anywhere else.

    My point was that “multicultural Melbourne” is a feastering pit of ethnic gang violence. All those stabbings of Indians… wouldn’t happen up here in Townsville. It wasn’t even white fellas doing the stabbings it was asian gangs, way to go Melbourne.

    You’d have to pay me to live in such a cesspit(I once stopped over at Melbourne airport, and even that was enough to put me off for life)

  5. anony,

    I could always call you a mouse, but that would be a shameless piece of derivative humour devoid of intellectual content.

  6. The Labor Party WILL propose legislation for CC. They will NOT jeopardise the economy or risk the next two decades in opposition. Combet is PERFECT for the job.

    If the legislation is acceptable to the Indies, it will pass the lower house. If it is unacceptable to the Greens in the upper house – TOUGH TITIES!

    Next issue?

  8. The best way to resolve the RSPT is for the ALP to negotiate with the coalition. The coalition are now reviewing policy and need to realise that to help the bottom line of our fragile economy that some extra level of tax will help the budget.

    Gillard and the ALP lost a lot of support because of the current proposed RSPT to the coalition, but on the other hand lost votes to the Greens because of the so called inaction on climate change.

    the best way to resolve the issue is for gillard to reduce the effects of the RSPT and for the coalition to support a further watered down issue. it would be a win/win for both parties and shows to the people that Abbott wants the parliament to run its 3 year cause.

    but the main reason why the Libs should agree to a compromise is that it ensures the greens dont hold the mining industry, the economy and the ALP to ransom to put in an extreme environmental agenda which will ruin the economy overnight. the libs should do the same for the ETS

    for australia to move forward both major parties need to compromise to get an ETS and the RSPT through to ensure proper policy is passed with due diligence without being held to ransom by the greens

  10. anony,

    I know you’re slow and it has been explained to you in words of less than one syllable before.

    There is no ETS in Australia because the Greens, to their eternal shame, voted against the only legislation ever brought before the Parliament that would have introduced an ETS scheme.

  11. [-I take it The Truce is over then?

    It’s being renegotiated while both sides work out the best way to move forwards together.]
    The Greens’ official webpage is still saying truce. 🙂

    Nice pics of Jules & Bob Brown with the title “Green-Labor Agreement: Committment to stable progressive government”.

  14. [I could always call you a mouse, but that would be a shameless piece of derivative humour devoid of intellectual content.]

    GG! that’s the kind that makes me laugh.

  15. vik,

    I think the real Greens are more sensible than the Greens here at PB.

    How long would some here last if they went to the electorate. I’m not kidding, even Truthy would kick their butt!

  16. anony 457

    I agree. the CC gun has six barrels, no blanks. Labor has shot itself four times since late year and gillard was a main instigator it appears on three if not four. the gun has caused huge damage – it is not what they have done but not done that is problem. today is the fifth bang.

    look there is no real problem as good leadership and speaking and negotiation cannot solve – today was not that

  17. [There is no ETS in Australia because the Greens, to their eternal shame, voted against the only legislation ever brought before the Parliament that would have introduced an ETS scheme.]

    gg – heel! now listen!

    no ets because labor tried to legislate an ets that made more pollution and taxed australians to pay people to pollute it was so bad that when the greens said no and tony abbott went back on malcolm’s word, labor were so scared that they folded and shelved it, instead of taking it to an election. slow learners aren’t they?

  18. This is what the Greens-Labor Agreement says about the Climate Change Committee.

    [That Australia must tackle climate change and that reducing carbon pollution by 2020 
    will require a price on carbon.  Therefore the Parties agree to form a well resourced 
    Climate Change Committee which encompasses experts and representative ALP, Greens,independent and Coalition parliamentarians who are committed to tackling climate 
    change and who acknowledge that reducing carbon pollution by 2020 will require a 
    carbon price.  The Committee will be resourced like a Cabinet Committee.  The Parties 
    will, by the end of September 2010, finalise the structure, membership and work plan ofthe Committee. ]

    So we’ll know the membership etc very soon.

  20. When the Great Big Carbon tax is introduced and everyones gas, electricity and fuel prices go up and global CO2 emmissions keep skyrocketing with Australia’s negible contribution and it’s negible cuts, what will the punters think then?

    You reckon they’ll realise they just got screwed over by special interests and feel good groups?

  24. [I think the real Greens are more sensible than the Greens here at PB. ]

    does that make us the equivalent of the provisional IRA? 😀

  26. [ germany is a big exporter of green technology. the best part about patentable technologies is that they are a cash cow that you aren’t likely to run out of. unlike coal. do you honestly think china, which is rapidly investing in green technology, is content to be dependent on foreign imports for energy, and bear the costs of environmental degradation? only when we are paying someone else for our green technologies will people understand this. we have an opportunity to become to green technology what saudi arabia is to oil. ]

    Where to start…

    Germany is the fifth largest consumer of energy and derives only 1.5% of it’s energy from solar and wind. Wind tech sales generated $6.1 billion last year, solar is worth about 5-6 billion. Last year much of the German solar manufacturing industry was in crisis and losing money.

    Coal exports in Aus last year were 55 billion, and likely to be a third higher this year.

    China is building many,many coal fired power stations, their top level coal mines are as technologically advanced as anywhere in the world. China is the biggest miner of coal in the world and output is growing at a rate that dwarfs our own. China mines more that twice the quantity of coal of it’s closest competitor the US.

    Now having said all that, I’m all for investing a whole lot more in green tech, but coal is not going anywhere in a hurry.

  27. TTH

    [As to your comment about making heaps more in the private sector, the people that seemingly work in the public sector would probably get sacked on day 1 due to poor performance. In the public sector once your in… your in. Your union rep will make sure the government doesn’t sack you no matter how useless you are at your job. You’ll also get 15% super, 35 hour work week and 8 weeks holiday a year. Sit back and relax while the rest of the country works it ass off to pay you for it.]

    Your ignorance is almost as great as you malevolence.

  28. Dio/495,

    Some action is needed but how much is too much or too little is, there is not enough discussion on that, so the best option I think is to get it started and ramp it up or down if needed.

    Play it safe.

  29. Bravo to Mediawatch for taking a potshot at the OO. Should be more from Our ABC.

    Pigs will also fly with the likes of Fran Kelly, Virginia Triolli and the Insiders at Their ABC.

  30. [When the Great Big Carbon tax is introduced and everyones gas, electricity and fuel prices go up and global CO2 emmissions keep skyrocketing with Australia’s negible contribution and it’s negible cuts, what will the punters think then?

    You reckon they’ll realise they just got screwed over by special interests and feel good groups?]

    truthy, if that’s the case, by then it’ll be mad max all around. and i will be coming to your house, right after i visit ‘lord’ monckton with my primitive war-band of greens. 🙂

  33. Now you see, how do you blokes in Skyland think you are going?

    You’re making Truthy @ 520 sound realistic and down to down to earth!

  34. Geoffrey: Someday you might learn to speak in full sentences. Someday you might know better than to spatter bile and bilge about “union thugs”. Someday: oh never mind.

    You do yourself no honour, credit, or anything of worth in speaking thus about Greg Combet. Wrap yourself in James Hardie asbestos (look it up, there is this thing called the web) and come back; say I am very sorry, and then start again. Or don’t.

  35. [Now having said all that, I’m all for investing a whole lot more in green tech, but coal is not going anywhere in a hurry.]

    jon – who said it was? you did teach that straw man a lesson though.

  36. [I once stopped over at Melbourne airport, and even that was enough to put me off for life ]

    I did the same thing in Paris, what a sh**hole, you can always judge the cultural calibre of a place by it’s airport I always say, Townsville has a cracker.

  37. [That would be irrelevant ratbag arsewipes.]

    GG – that’s senators irrelevant ratbag arsewipes and MHR irrelevant ratbag arsewipes to the likes of you. 😀

  39. cheers to marrickville mauler

    yes it was wrong to generalise about unions, sorry. but the matter today stands. regardless of other work done. read comments in australian for once – they are as tough as mine.

    regarding grammar this is a blog. no great point taken

    cheers again

    cheers

  42. anony,

    They carry their own ignominy.

    The comment was directed to the likes of Greens like you who like to pollute PB with your insanities.

  43. Anony that was lame,

    [ do you honestly think china, which is rapidly investing in green technology, is content to be dependent on foreign imports for energy, and bear the costs of environmental degradation? ]

    The point is coal has to be part of the energy mix, so we need to deal with it, there simply are no other alternatives. Greens refuse to see it.

  44. [The Finnigans, the Diogenes has escaped his lead. Bite him.]

    Grey, i let him loose to run around this afternoon because he needed the exercises. 😆

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