Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey has the two parties locked together on 50-50, suggesting Labor has not received a dividend from its success in forming a minority government. The more recent part of the rolling two-week survey was conducted from last Tuesday, when the rural independents’ made their announcements, until yesterday, and it has dragged Labor down from the 51-49 recorded in the previous survey. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is unlikely to have been much in it either way: the Coalition is up a point to 44 per cent and Labor steady on 39 per cent, with the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Approval or disapproval of the independents’ decision was predictably split on party lines, for a total of 41 per cent approve and 45 per cent disapprove. Respondents were asked to rate the performance of the parties since the election and for some reason the Coalition rated better than Labor, recording a net positive rating of 9 per cent compared with 4 per cent for Labor. However, Julia Gillard was thought to have shown “more leadership abilities during the period since the election” than Tony Abbott, 47 per cent to 35 per cent. Forty-five per cent of respondents rated the increased strength of the Greens as good for Australia against 38 per cent bad, which goes against other polling conducted earlier. Conversely, 44 per cent agree the independents will hold too much power, with only 36 per cent disagreeing.

Elsewhere:

• Anna Bligh has raised the prospect of a return to compulsory preferential voting in Queensland, with The Australian reporting the matter is likely to be considered by a (Labor-dominated) parliamentary committee. Bligh notes concerns that the operation of different systems at state and federal level causes confusion and a higher informal vote, and it is indeed the case that the optional preferential states of New South Wales and Queensland generally have a slightly higher informal rate at federal elections than other states. However, that hasn’t been the case this time – in Queensland the informal vote was 5.45 per cent, against 5.55 per cent nationally (the national total admittedly having been pulled up by a 6.82 per cent rate in New South Wales). It is clear that Labor’s sudden enthusiasm for compulsory preferential in Queensland is due to their parlous electoral position, and the very high likelihood they will bleed votes to the Greens that might not return to them, as they mostly did at the federal election. As an opponent of electoral compulsion in all its forms, I would much sooner the confusion be resolved by a move to optional preferential voting at federal level – though Labor is most unlikely to be keen on this, as it would have cost them three seats at the federal election. UPDATE: As Kevin Bonham correctly notes in comments, it would also have saved them Denison. Note that Peter Brent at Mumble has expressed sentiments almost identical to my own.

• A by-election looms in the Western Australian state seat of Armadale, which Alannah MacTiernan vacated to make her failed run for Canning. Armadale is Labor’s safest seat, and the by-election will not be contested by the Liberals. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Also in the field are Owen Davies for the Greens, Jamie van Burgel for the Christian Democratic Party and independent John D. Tucak, who polled 298 votes as an upper house candidate in 2008. The by-election will be held on October 2.

• Another by-election following from the federal election is for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, vacated by newly elected Ryan MP Jane Prentice. Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reported on August 18 that even before his defeat in Ryan, dumped Liberal Michael Johnson was sizing up the seat. The Liberal National Party will hold its preselection tomorrow. The by-election will be held on October 23.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. jon – [The point is coal has to be part of the energy mix, so we need to deal with it, there simply are no other alternatives. Greens refuse to see it.]

    that straw man has really had it, i really don’t know why you’re still hacking away in a frenzy. did i say somewhere that we should stop the coal industry tomorrow? did i even venture a timeframe? could you quote where i said that?

  6. [Townsville has some crime, just like anywhere else.

    My point was that “multicultural Melbourne” is a feastering pit of ethnic gang violence. All those stabbings of Indians… wouldn’t happen up here in Townsville.]

    lol. townsville??? look truthy, some of us are from qld and we know that white bed sheets sold there come free with eyeholes.

  7. Finns

    [Diog, do you need any TLC? just ask.]

    Whilst that is a very kind offer, if I needed any TLC I don’t think you would be the first person I’d ask. You’d be third, or maybe fourth. 😀

    I’m off to read a crime novel set in Laos. It’s very funny.

  8. [geoffrey/confessions # 262/272
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010

    yes confessions, tony has a MOST peculiar walk – he cannot claim farm work or horse or war injuries (like a recent american presential candidate). can anyone explain? he looks like a cowboy going to a shootout – that is only honest thing that pops to mind – surprised cartoonist haven’t picked it up]

    Just in on the thread…am surprised noone has mentioned he was an inmate at the seminary for late teen, early 20’s single guys and decided it wasn’t for him. Its all about trying the life style, may have left a lasting impression on his……………..gayt.
    Just a little aside ….

  11. [and why did you stir up the amigos?]

    he actually stirred up the Senorita and the Amigos came to rescue the Senorita: We ride.

  12. [Don’t jump to any conclusions about the TPP count in Melbourne so far. They have not actually done any new counting. They have just entered the first preference non-ordinary ALP vote totals as preferring the ALP over Libs and the first preference non-ordinary Lib votes as preferring Libs over ALP.]

    Thanks for pointing that out, Dr Good. I thought I’d entered the twilight zone for a moment. I wish the AEC would be a bit more consistent. Personally, I think they should have been including primary votes from the non-classic eight in the national two-party total all along, since these are votes which have been counted and can be taken to the bank. Of course, that’s obviously not as good an option as them not bothering with a national running total at all, which I confidently predict is what will happen in future.

  16. Gus

    No it’s not. There was Little Boy which was dropped on Hiroshima and Fat Man which was dropped on Nagasaki. The test atomic bomb was just called The Gadget, and the test itself was called Trinity. (I just finished reading a bio of Oppenheimer’s secretary).

    And the Amigos are fine. They’re very tough.

  18. Morning PBers. Are you all having spats, agin. tut, tut.

    Have purchased roses. All to be renamed Julia Gillards, and sports to be named as appropriate. Madame Julia will take pride of place in a small, dry-stone-wall enclosure with tinkerings of water, just to please the soul.

  24. Anony,

    [ you know the greens won’t compromise and keep paying coalminers to pollute ]

    Later

    [do you honestly think china, which is rapidly investing in green technology, is content to be dependent on foreign imports for energy ]

    So what are you saying here then? What is it exactly you are standing for?

  26. geoffrey/confessions # 262/272
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010

    yes confessions, tony has a MOST peculiar walk – he cannot claim farm work or horse or war injuries (like a recent american presential candidate). can anyone explain? he looks like a cowboy going to a shootout – that is only honest thing that pops to mind – surprised cartoonist haven’t picked it up

    Just in on the thread…am surprised noone has mentioned he was an inmate at the seminary for late teen, early 20’s single guys and decided it wasn’t for him. Its all about trying the life style, may have left a lasting impression on his……………..gayt.
    Just a little aside ….

    David

    What are you suggesting about walk?
    This blog is a bit big. There could be smaller concurrent threads??
    Can you tell how to reply? I know this sounds silly.

    There you go Marrickville rep, I have written in full sentences which are well punctuated. I’ll go back to fiction prose tomorrow.

  28. [Grey, Diog is my little mate.]

    Yep, know that, just letting you both know. Slightly iffy, but always gives me a giggle. 🙂 How do I do the devil emoticon?

  31. [My point was that “multicultural Melbourne” is a feastering pit of ethnic gang violence. …You’d have to pay me to live in such a cesspit(I once stopped over at Melbourne airport, and even that was enough to put me off for life)]

    Ah, well I’ve probably had a bit more comparative experience of the two places, TTH. I’ve spent many weeks in Townsville and I live in Melbourne. Townsville’s not the toughest place I’ve spent some time around in Australia, but I’d have to say its not the most peaceful either.

  33. jon – where, in either of those quotes did i advance the idea that we should end the coal industry entirely in the short term?

    just because you can’t conceive of redirecting coal subsidies to renewables doesn’t make your straw man any more real.

  37. Clive Palmer is appalling. In what capacity has he been invited onto this forum: mining industry rep, or spokesperson for the coalition? I missed the start of the show – did they say?

  39. [Clive Palmer is appalling. In what capacity has he been invited onto this forum: mining industry rep, or spokesperson for the coalition?]
    Proprietor of the LNP.

  41. [Coco the clown?]

    [Proprietor of the LNP.]

    One and the same?

    He just said he’d be happy to pay Tone’s PPL tax for 10 years. I bet he wouldn’t.

  42. [ did i advance the idea that we should end the coal industry entirely in the short term? ]

    Weasel words, so what medium term then or how long? Got a plan for this industry death march or just making it up as you go along?

    [ just because you can’t conceive of redirecting coal subsidies to renewables doesn’t make your straw man any more real. ]

    I can conceive it and I have no problem with large investments in sustainable energy, straw man?

  44. [There was Little Boy which was dropped on Hiroshima and Fat Man which was dropped on Nagasaki. The test atomic bomb was just called The Gadget, and the test itself was called Trinity]

    So males got short shrift. and a religious aside, wonder what would have been said if they didn’t go off. Oh shit probably

  47. [Weasel words, so what medium term then or how long? Got a plan for this industry death march or just making it up as you go along?]

    jon – you just go ahead and have this argument against imaginary things i said. if you want to have a discussion, why don’t you start by explaining:

    1) how long the coal industry should continue in it’s current form

    2) who should pay for it’s externalities in the form of climate change

    3) how you plan on reducing emissions sufficiently by 2050 without affecting the coal industry

    you do that and i’m happy to put up some timelines of my own. as opposed to the ones you’re capering around pretending i said. the only weasel around here is you busy albrechting my words to suit yourself.

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