Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.

Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.

UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,641 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 90 of 93
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  3. [4289
    confessions

    briefly:
    I disagree with your assessment that Abbott is a small government Liberal. I’ve seen no evidence of this from any of his public statements or policies.

    Far from being a small government advocate, Abbott’s policies commit the state to providing an extraordinarily generous PPL scheme, hospital takeovers, taxpayer subsidies to polluters and farmers, more taxpayer pork subsidies to the broadband sector, and extending State subsidies to families for education, and seniors for health.

    ……… Tone is not a small government Liberal, but a rank populist with no objection to committing the State to whatever obligations are necessary in order to win over particular voting blocs.]

    I agree the TA is willing to use the Treasury to bribe individual interests. But as a general proposition, he is against an activist State. He will put taxpayer money into private hands, but he won’t create strong State institutions or invest in publicly owned assets except to the extent that he has to be seen to match Labor. His PPL policy is of a piece with his Catholicism and is intended to reduce the opportunity cost to wealthy families of having children. It is not a social justice policy: it is a parody.

    When TA says he is the political love child of John Howard and Bronwyn Bishop, this is what he means: he actively seeks to define public sector investment as “waste” and to reduce the scope of action to which government may be committed.

  7. Marky and Frank

    Sadly your comments are on the mark!!

    What a disgraceful position we are in – and of course Malcolm will be painted as aggrieved and just out of touch! Damn them all!

  8. [What’s Mesma up to on Lateline?]

    …look into my eyes, look into my eyes, the eyes, the eyes, not around the eyes, don’t look around my eyes, look into my eyes…

  9. [Dio, I’m prepared to accept the umpires (indies) decision. If they go with Abbott, then thats that. I think Wilkie, Oakeshott and Windsor seem like decent blokes and am happy to accept their decision.]

    What a savings measure – the Department of Finance will love you.

    In future we will not have costly elections, rather we will choose three ‘decent BLOKES’ and let them decide the whole thing.

    FORTHER SAVINGS – abolosh parliament – let the three ‘ decent BLOKES’ just run the place

  11. If the Indies go with Abbott they wouldn’t be beholden to voting for everything he throws up though would they? Just promise not to block supply or side with Opps in no confidence votes?

  12. If you looked at the panel on Q&A tonight i would have thought it was bias towards the left of politics , so i would agree that they are not inherently bias.

  14. Lateline

    Bishop saying the Julia has no mandate because we are winning seats, PV and TPP. Leigh Sales really pushing this and saying that it will help with the independents. I can’t believe this. I’m so disappointed in the ABC and MSN. They are going to use this tomorrow. How long before the @PP comes back to favour labor.

  15. The amazing thing watching Malcolm Fraser tonight was when the crowd reacted to his criticisms of Tony Abbott. If there was anyone in that room that knows what a genuine Liberal is, it is Malcolm Fraser. Those sad sacks in the audience don’t understand how defrauded they have become from their beloved Liberal Party. Instead they see him as a Labor apologist.

    Astonishing.

    At least the audience in general could appreciate his final comments that Turnbull is a genuine Liberal, even if the crazy conservatives think MT should move to the ALP.

  16. [If the Indies go with Abbott they wouldn’t be beholden to voting for everything he throws up though would they?]

    Nup

    just the smear campaign that rupe would unleash if they didnt toe the line would obliterate any cred they had

  20. Victorian Senate vote is looking interesting, FF was about 4000 votes behind DLP with 75% counted.

    77% counted and now FF less than 3000 votes below DLP.

    If FF get above DLP then DLP is eliminated and its down to ALP, LIB, SEX and FF.

    Im rooting for the sex party 😉

  24. [4423
    Publicus Vernula
    Posted Monday, August 30, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
    Three Boats as Health Minister was a disaster – he could not master a brief (no matter how short).]

    Like John Keane said on Q&A, Abbott just does not seem to get major features and details of policy.

    I was told by somebody who had to deal with Abbott at the highest level of health policy that he is into brinkmanship games, meaning it is really about the ideological and political fight to him, not about the policy itself.

  25. I thought that Mesma was a disaster as a minister

    But compared to leugh Sayles ability as an interviewer she wasa genius

  27. Publicus Vernula

    Well thats the situation we’ve got. Nothing I can do about it. They are the ones that are going to decide the outcome. I’m talking about my very distant perceptions of politicians I’ve never met. Decent blokes probably wasn’t the best choice of words 🙂

  29. [young peter @4463

    you seem to be lost for words

    Bishop put him under]

    The force is strong in darth bishop the younger

    her powers now extend to the webby

    Hmmmmn

  30. Sounds like the Libs are going to be pushing the 2PP thing tomorrow. Bishop said Julia had no mandate to govern. Do you think this will backfire on them. Surely the 3 indies won’t be looking at the 2PP.

  31. [I’m so disappointed in the ABC and MSN. They are going to use this tomorrow. How long before the @PP comes back to favour labor.]

    Peter, don’t be too disappointed, Lateline was setting a trap for the coalition. Leigh’s question was an invitation to brag, to claim legitimacy if you are ahead on 2PP. As soon as the 2PP goes back to ALP, they would have hit the LNP with a ‘why isn’t Joolya right to form a government, she has the 2PP has been settled in her favour’ etc.

    Have to say, Julie Bishop was very very good on Lateline tonight, she handled he difficult questions about those moronic phone calls from Shultz and heffernan with real skill. Maybe Foreign affairs is starting to rub off on her.

  32. I don’t think the term ‘mandate’ appears in our constitution does it?

    Politicians always claim/deny they have mandate.

    Personally I don’t care who they date.

  33. Exactly that is how News Corp will report it, an old fool from the 70’s.
    They hate people who want to bring in policies which do not favour the big business elite.
    Look how they have ruined leaders in Britain who do nothing for them.
    Look how Rudd crawled to Murdoch in New York in 2007, these people are very dangerous and i have always said
    the most dangerous person in the world is Rupert Murdoch not Osama bin Laden.
    Why because with so much media ownership and coverage they can destroy someone, influence people and populations, and control thoughts
    in one single day.

  36. [Have to say, Julie Bishop was very very good on Lateline tonight, she handled he difficult questions about those moronic phone calls from Shultz and heffernan with real skill. Maybe Foreign affairs is starting to rub off on her.
    ]

    Must have shown a different version of the interview in the universe you’re in – is there oxygen on your planet.

  39. [Must have shown a different version of the interview in the universe you’re in – is there oxygen on your planet.]

    Mr Squiggle is non-carbon based life form.

  46. Malcolm Fraser is an absolute joke. Claims that politicians need more real life experience, yet he himself was elected as an MP in his mid-20s. Pot, meet kettle.

  48. [I don’t think the term ‘mandate’ appears in our constitution does it?]

    Actually, the truth on the constitution is it’s actually a blank document. You see, back in the 1890s, nobody could agree to an actual constitution. What should be put in there? What should be omitted? Should names of offices be directly referred to? Or will that be limiting? In the end, they agreed to a blank document with a page long obfuscating preamble and agreed to just pretend that the constitution says certain things if necessary.

    Also, there are actually 13 states. The identity of the other 7 remains confidential.

  49. [Poor old george, you can’t spell, you can’t talk, you’re pretty much useless.]

    I feel special, you finally replied to me.. oh joy of joy, my Wibewal hero, thank you – you’ve made my night! BTW, how are the dog-poo rolls they’re giving out at HQ these days?

  50. Who kow Bludgers: WIlkie could go ALP as early as tomorrow and then the 3 amigos will be able to abstain and still get what they actually want: Gillard and the NBN.

    Im sure they’d rather do it that way.

    This is a real possibility, and all easily justified by ALP having clearly won the 2PP. 😉

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