Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.

Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.

UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,641 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. marky marky @4462:

    “If you looked at the panel on Q&A tonight i would have thought it was bias towards the left of politics , so i would agree that they are not inherently bias.”

    “…I thought it was biasED towards … not inherently biasED.”

    Even if we can’t agree on the definition of what constitutes bias, or its direction, surely we can all agree on the appropriate use of the past tense, FFS! 😛

    Old Tom, the old pedant 😉

  2. I suspect that by the end of this week, Abbott will be Prime Minister elect!
    I’d advise many of you not to get your hopes up too much for a Labor minority Government(as much as it pains me to agree with Nostrodamus & GP).

  3. [Generic Patsy, isn’t it past your beddie time at Wibewal HQ?]

    Oh dear – haven’t you spotted it yet george?

    name calling is off the agenda now, replaced by a kinder, gentler polity.

    Don’t you want some centre right independants helping you stay in power?

    Say something nice george, see what it gets you

  4. [Malcolm Fraser is an absolute joke. Claims that politicians need more real life experience, yet he himself was elected as an MP in his mid-20s. Pot, meet kettle.]

    GP, you’ve obviously forgotten 20 year old Wyatt Roy, the new great hero of your side of politics.;)

  5. [Also, there are actually 13 states. The identity of the other 7 remains confidential.]

    Hah

    Ive been to pradise ,but Ive never been to me

    Ooops

    I meant i know the federation states

  6. evan14@4507

    Malcolm Fraser is an absolute joke. Claims that politicians need more real life experience, yet he himself was elected as an MP in his mid-20s. Pot, meet kettle.

    GP, you’ve obviously forgotten 20 year old Wyatt Roy, the new great hero of your side of politics.;)

    And Ken Wyatt who has without exception spent his entire adult life after teaining to be a school teacher – a Public Servant of some description.

  7. Have faith punters.

    FACT: the KOW would rather have the NBN. And you dont get the NBN with Tones.

    I suspect they’d leap at any chance to get it with an abstention.

    Easily justified by the fact the Australian people didn’t ultimately boot Gillard out – why should they?

    Both parties lost this election.

  8. Did Wyatt Roy work in electoral office beforehand?

    Frasers’ point was about stacking, electoral staffers and union hacks, at least Fraser had convictions todays lot do not know the meaning of the word.
    Look at people like Conroy the king of stacking how did this dud get their?

  9. lefty.. the danger is that Abbott will sleaze the indies by appearing to backflip over the NBN and then later on watering it down.. and slowly killing it off

  10. If the Liberals, OO and ABC are now pushing the 2PP result as a
    determiner of government then it is very important that we
    wait and see what the 2PP result actually is.

    It will be no good rushing in to make a decision without hearing
    what every valid voter’s 2PP actually says, would it?

    Unfortunately, the AEC have to finish counting the votes
    for seats first. So it might not be until next week
    that we get the 2PP result.

    If the OO, Liberals and ABC don’t want to wait
    and instead want to engage it some
    predictions as to what the final 2PP will be then
    they have come to the right place …

  11. [@Psephos, it never used to be this bad, did it?]

    It was so bad in 1975 their own staff nearly went on strike. I haven’t been reading any of it this time so I can’t compare.

  12. Frank @4511
    [And Ken Wyatt who has without exception spent his entire adult life after teaining to be a school teacher – a Public Servant of some description.]

    Entire adult life? All 2 years of it! LOL

    And there is much to be said for putting the age if majority back to 21 and keeping kids out of cars, bars and running the country.

  13. [To be honest I wish Fraser would stop attacking the coalition – every time he does it it probably gains them votes.]

    There are only 4 votes that count now.

  14. Dr good, I dare say the last thing that will bother the Indies is the 2PP. They’ll think first and foremost about what gets them elected next time (esp Wilkie) – then and closely related they’ll consider their own electorate and thirdly they’ll consider what’s best for the country.

    On those points alone, if they aren’t influenced by past thinking patterns and simply compare policy point by point there’s no way they’d vote for Abbott.

    However – I won’t trust Abbott when he’s dead, buried, cremated and has a stake through his heart.

  15. If the indies go with the Libs it will because the business elite newspaper will have put the noose around their neck and told them to walk the plank.
    And realistically their attitude( Coalition) since the election towards them has been appalling, they have basically stood over them and told them to do as they say.
    It has been an atriocious behaviour.

  16. There’s nothing wrong with Wyatt because of his age – there’s lots of intelligent creative 20yos who would be good in Parliament. Roy’s problem is the obvious brain damage that lead to him being in the wrong party.

  17. No 4523

    The funny thing about Fraser is that he’s become so left wing that the lefties want to vote for him. Except, they’d never vote Liberal in a million years.

    Mal is a joke. He saved Australia from Gough, then twiddled his thumbs for 8 years.

  18. […Abbott when he’s dead, buried, cremated and has a stake through his heart.]

    awe, now I’m gonna have to be your bestest friend….

  19. I realise that as far as the indies are concerned the state of the 2PP may not be high on their lists but If decisions towards the end of the week go in Julia’s favour overall and the 2PP turns in labors’ favor at about the same time perhaps the sudden fixation by the MSM with the importance of 2PP may help labor to some extent. Julia will be able to say she is on record as to the importance of 2PP and that this has been backed up by recent commentary in the MSM. Combined with the support of the indies labor therefore has a legimate right to govern. Perhaps this will go someway to drown out the cries from certain sections of the MSM I am sure will arise if Julia does get the nod.

  20. No 4529

    Roy’s background points to him being a Liberal man through and through. Plus, he’s a Queenslander. His time studying in extreme-left Victoria probably solidified his views to run for the Liberals.

  21. [To be honest I wish Fraser would stop attacking the coalition – every time he does it it probably gains them votes.]

    Yeah that whole “do the exact opposite of what Fraser wants” is a largely sought after demographic…

  22. [Mal is a joke. He saved Australia from Gough, then twiddled his thumbs for 8 years.]

    To cap it off, he had an incomptetent Treasurer.

  23. No 4528

    The fact that he was young of course was taken into account. But, to run a 20 year old is definitely a big risk. My friends in the YLNP in QLD inform me that he campaigned his arse off and got a very good response. Now he’s the member for Longman.

    Really, just shows how terrible Jon Sullivan was. Sailed in on the back of Kev07, then did nothing.

  24. [ The LNP took a risk on Wyatt Roy and it just so turns out that Jon Sullivan was a hopeless campaigner. ]

    FMD I think you just said something of merit!

  25. [To cap it off, he had an incomptetent Treasurer.]

    Who cost my family a large part of the equity on their house and forced my family into poverty for several years.

    And the scary part is, the nightmare returned. God, please, don’t let Abbott and his pals back!

  26. Fraser is a humitarian now like he was then, believed in boat people and at least had some compassion.
    On unions he would be against many of their fundamental requirements and private ownership he would be all for it, for example he never supported Medibank.

  27. Thanks, William. Still problematic, but got there..

    Without reading comments, best Q&A ever.

    Fraser gets this deal. No matter how much I railed against him, and weirdly for him.

    Calling it for the Libs, should they care, though they should, will call it too for Labor.

    Get a life, an opinion, a position, a reality.

    Listen Up.

    Give something upon which a voter of any persuasion may rely.

  28. cud chewer

    I agree that the Indies seem sensible.

    But it is always a good idea to point out flaws in the
    outrageously stupid media cheer leading

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