Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.

Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.

UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,641 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  4. It is a lot easier to come to terms with Malcolm Fraser than it otherwise could have been because of the immortal Gough. He and Fraser put their struggle behind them and have become friends – or so I believe. There is something ennobling about Fraser, though I can hardly believe I am saying this. Perhaps it is that he has clearly never stopped thinking about the issues and conscientiously responding to events. As well, he has been a life-long fighter against racism and, I understand, a member of the Anti-Slavery Movement. I admire him for this if nothing else.

  6. Queensland was a frigging disaster for Labor – it’s amazing that they still hold Petrie and Moreton amidst the wreckage.

  7. It’s like watching my seven year old cousins discover the word “shit” when I read these wet-lettuce taunts. LOL

  8. Extreme Left Victoria, which planet is that on?

    Yep meantime the Victorian Government gives handouts to big business, and provides a lovely Grand Prix for them every year.. .S
    Helped the Casino operators not so long ago, and regularly holds corporate minister gatherings to get donations and a free listen every so often…
    In extreme left Victoria… I wonder what the Cain Government was if this government is extreme left?

  9. Ad Hominem becomes difficult when you just say the same banal things over and over, mix it up and the personal attacks may get correspondingly more creative.

  10. [It’s like watching my seven year old cousins discover the word “shit” when I read these wet-lettuce taunts. LOL]

    Do they allow under 10’s in the Wibewal party now? Figures…

  11. The 2PP is meaningless at present because of the number of contests in which the fight is between one of the two major parties, and either the Greens or a third party. These are all exclude from the count at present.

    One of the paradoxes of the AEC “headline figure” for such things at present, for example, is that if the Coalition ran third, rather than second, in all seats won by the Labor party, and Labor ran second in all seats won by the Libs, then the [b]Labor[/a] percentage of 2PP would fall dramatically, because none of the votes in Labor’s victories would be counted as part of the 2PP, but the Lib %2PP would [b]rise[/b].

    (The same applies in the opposite direction, too, of course)

  12. 4551

    They had a big swing to the ALP and Greens this election giving the ALP over 60% of the 2PP. The Greens got almost 20% in the Senate. They even have 2 Greens in State Cabinet.

  14. The Coalition are currently on 50.01 of the 2PP vote – obviously good enough for an overwhelming mandate in the eyes of the MSM, GP & Nostro. 😉

  15. No 4559

    Stunning lack of self-awareness. Have you not been reading the multithousand-post circle-jerks on this blog for the last several years?

  16. Agree Dr Good: Indeed, far be it from me to criticism our noble AEC, but seriously, dont you think they could hold off removing a whole bunch of seats and creating a misleading 2PP at this sensitive point in time?

    While Im sure its normal practice – this is not a normal post-election situation.

    At the very least they should have a note on the national 2PP page indicating whats happened. At the moment its elsewhere – on their home page.

  17. [Anna Bligh is the culprit for Queensland failings.]

    No, she’s not. I am.

    I put mind control substances in their water but accidentally told them all to vote for Abbott. I’m surprised anyone voted for Labor there.

    Nevertheless, it’s on me. Sorry about that!

  18. [The Coalition are currently on 50.01 of the 2PP vote – obviously good enough for an overwhelming mandate in the eyes of the MSM, GP & Nostro]

    It was hilarious listening to Bishop on Lateline talk about that 0.01% mandate

  19. Don’t fret over GP. Feel sorry for him and remember, this too is Roy’s fate; a life without an original thought.

  20. [Have you not been reading the multithousand-post circle-jerks on this blog for the last several years?]

    If the shoe fits Generic Patsy… you know the rest

  23. There is still just one fundamental equation: No Labor gov’t = No NBN.

    Either WOK want NBN or they don’t.

    “Either do or do not.” …

  24. [If Victoria is extreme-left what does that make Tasmania?
    ]

    Surely WA is the extreme left – unles you’re standing on your head

  25. Anna Bligh is the culprit for Queensland failings.

    I’m buggered if I know why. Compare Brisbane to Sydney and Brisbane comes out on top easily.

  26. Cud chewer

    The AEC only works out the 2PP as a service to researchers
    so any special counting that they have to do for that
    statistic have to wait until the counting to find winners
    of seats has finished.

    Now, for most seats you can just count the two candidate
    preferred 2CP result and that tells you the seat winner
    and can go straight into the national 2PP result.
    However, if the last two candidates in a seat are not
    ALP and Coalition then you can’t just use the 2CP
    to get the 2PP.

    However, for 8 seats this time, the last two candidates
    are not ALP vs Coalition. The seats are Batman, Grayndler,
    Denison, Melbourne, Kennedy, Lyne, New England and
    O’Connor.

    Today the AEC only just realised that Batman and
    Grayndler are in this category so they removed these
    two from the ongoing provisional 2PP national count.
    The other six were already excluded.

    This suddenly put the Coalition in front (just).

    However, after the seat winners are declared the
    AEC will go back to all the eight seats and
    recount them as ALP vs Coalition. Then those
    totals will be added to get the final national
    2PP count.

    According to my estimations the eight seats,
    although divided four left, four right
    actually will contribute a nett 70,000 2PP
    votes to the ALP. (roughly as in 2007)
    This is because 3 of them are very left wing.

    Thus I expect the 2PP count to continue
    hovering around 50-50 until suddenly
    early next week when the 8 seats are added
    it will shoot up to put the ALP at about
    50.4%.

    Meanwhile the Libs are having their 2PP day
    in the MSM.

  27. Yes, GP you are smart and better than us. Happy? Now actually say something worth reading that isn’t just thuggish chest beating or banal insults. K?

    And don’t give me the “I’m just a poor widdle conservative who is always picked on by the mean old bludgers” crap either. We have plenty of conservatives here who make valid points, you just come here for a reaction to validate what is probably a sad existence.

  28. GP

    [It’s like watching my seven year old cousins discover the word “shit” when I read these wet-lettuce taunts. LOL]

    So you have some older cousins

  31. Old Tom @4573, you are 100% correct. I just find it amazing how many people still cling to the idea that you could have an NBN under Abbott – its just plain unthinkable to him and those around him.

    So why? My theory is there are lots of people who just can’t deal with the cognitive dissonance of being emotionally branded, nay indoctrinated to think Liberal yet at the same time really do get that the NBN has to happen. I had an old friend for lunch today do precisely that. Just squirmed. Knew it would be a disaster to not have the NBN (he’s in IT) and at the same time was desparately clawing his way towards believing that somehow Abbott would keep it going.

  32. 4574

    That is a very Northern Hemisphere centric view. As a resident of the Southern Hemisphere I object. Tasmania on map left is a Western Hemisphere view of the world.

  35. I don’t think Bligh had anything to do with it,Queenlanders were voting for Howard and delivering landslides to Beattie at the same time.
    Were a bit slow up here I grant you that,but not so thick we can’t differentiate between state and federal government.

  36. @4576

    [Today the AEC only just realised that Batman and
    Grayndler are in this category so they removed these
    two from the ongoing provisional 2PP national count.
    The other six were already excluded.]

    Then surely, someone in the ABC should have pointed out to Leigh Sales just how pointless it was talking about the 2PP tonight. She’s looking so stupid.

    Leigh also said at one point (is there a video/transcript?) at one point wtte “so the Coalition are on 73 and Crooks would make 74”. Geeez.. does anyone brief her?

  37. Grattan says –
    [A strong tide to the Coalition in late counting has wiped out Labor’s lead on the two-party preferred vote – which Ms Gillard has cited as a reason for the independents to back her government.]
    Is this true?

  40. [Is this true?]

    No. The AEC temporarily excluded Batman and Grayndler today for accounting purposes.

    Its not even slightly true.

  41. [A strong tide to the Coalition in late counting has wiped out Labor’s lead on the two-party preferred vote – which Ms Gillard has cited as a reason for the independents to back her government.

    Is this true?]

    Yes… except for the bit about Labor’s lead being wiped out…. oh wait

  42. Grattan does go on to say –
    [On election night, Labor was credited with 50.7 per cent of the two-party vote. But by last night that had disappeared, with the Coalition taking a lead of 636 votes after preferences.

    One reason is that officials have now removed all eight seats where the final contest was not between the Coalition and Labor – including the six seats won by the independents, Greens and WA Nationals, and two seats where the Greens were runners-up.

    Adding them, Labor’s vote now is about 50.1 per cent. But with a million votes still to be counted, the odds are that the Coalition will end up the winner.]
    So obviously she has counted those million votes.

  43. Cud Chewer

    The ABC should get Antony Green to vet these statements. He would
    point out the errors.

    However, Antony Green, who has probably the best model for estimating the
    final 2PP, seems to have been locked in a cupboard for this little 2PP
    escapade. Antony’s model worked out a 50.3% 2PP result during
    election night and I think it kept showing that until recently.
    Suddenly it seems to have disappeared from the ABC election
    site.

  44. [Then surely, someone in the ABC should have pointed out to Leigh Sales just how pointless it was talking about the 2PP tonight. ]

    The reporter in the lead up story introduced the claim and I have no doubt the coalition , and their supporting media, will make great play of it for the next few days.

    It would certainly be wise for the ABC to get Antony Green to explain the issue to the News department!

  45. Dr Good regardless of what our rural cousins decide to do I hope you are proven correct as that way I can at least console myself with the Knowledge that the majority of my fellow Australians did not vote for Tony Abbott.

  46. No 4577

    Pebbles, even when the conversation drifts from comedy hour to rational discussion, I am still met with the likes of george and Frank competing with each other on who can deliver the bigger shit-eating grin.

  47. Like I said before, I doubt the 2PP will matter much to the Indies. And besides I think they have good advice on the real state of play anyhow.

  49. [Pebbles, even when the conversation drifts from comedy hour to rational discussion, I am still met with the likes of george and Frank competing with each other on who can deliver the bigger shit-eating grin.]

    awe, don’t be upset G-Ponce, just buy yourself one of those “have you kicked a boat person today” t-shirt from Wibewal Party HQ and you’ll feel a lot better. In the meantime, don’t let the facts hit you on the you arse as you mince out the door.

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