Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.

Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.

UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,641 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. Probably right, cud chewer. But I frankly think the AEC should issue a notice on the same page as the count, given the sensitive nature of perceptions at present, technical accuracy should be preserved at all costs.

  5. Ok there are some new claims in that piece by Grattan that I haven’t
    seen before.

    They are:
    1) adding the eight seats in takes the ALP to 50.1%
    and
    2) the Coalition will likely win more of the uncounted votes.

    I find both of these claims very suspicious but I will look into them
    a bit more.

    My estimates were that these seats would add about 0.4% to the
    ALP 2PP.

    I also agree that the Coalition may just get more than 50% of the
    remaining uncounted postal votes but there are also a lot
    of absentee votes to count as well and the ALP often
    does better on them. So this is not clear. The Coaltion would
    have to get about 55% of the uncounted votes to make
    up a shortfall of 0.4% on the counted votes. That seems
    unlikely.

  11. I used ti resoect Michelle Grattan

    [Adding them, Labor’s vote now is about 50.1 per cent. But with a million votes still to be counted, the odds are that the Coalition will end up the winner.”

    How has she calcultes the odds.

    All available evidence would see the million votes remaining breaking the same way as the existing votes.

    sloppy

  13. [Dr good, I dare say the last thing that will bother the Indies is the 2PP]

    Yep … Wilkie, for his part, just wants More More More ! 😐

    [Mr Wilkie released a list of 20 ”priorities” that would cost billions of dollars to implement and said both parties had to do more to win his support.
    ….
    Mr Wilkie said renovations to Royal Hobart Hospital and betting limits on poker machines were his main demands. He said both leaders had been ”receptive”. He said a humane asylum-seeker policy was paramount. He said he did not like the Liberals’ hardline policy approach and Labor’s was not much better.
    His priority list, which he stressed were not demands, included infrastructure projects for Tasmania, worth an estimated $2 billion, increased pensions and other welfare payments, a publicly funded dental scheme and a conscience vote on gay marriage.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/youll-have-to-do-more-to-win-me-20100830-147ea.html

  14. There is another issue of a more political nature
    which the AEC needs to call on before it can finish its
    2PP count.

    For the seat of O’Connor it will need to decide whether
    Crook is a member of the Coalition.

    If he is then the 2PP votes have to be counted Crook vs
    ALP.

    If he is not then the 2PP votes in O’Connor need to be
    distributed into a Tuckey pile and an ALP pile and that
    makes the 2PP result for O’Connor.

    It won’t make too much difference to the final national
    result which way you do it but the AEC will have
    to make a clear decision.

  15. Yep, pick any seat at random and you get a close balance between postals and absents. That *doesnt* suggest an inevitable trend towards LNP – at least not one that can be assumed.

    You actually have to *count* them. (I know, crazy times call for crazy measures)

  16. [It won’t make too much difference to the final national
    result which way you do it but the AEC will have
    to make a clear decision.
    ]

    Would it even make too much difference in O’connor

    wouldn’t ALP/Cook split and ALP/Tuckey split be similar

  17. Dr Good if you are still with us did you get a chance on election day to count how many seats the ALP were favourites in at the close of the voting in the eastern states with centrebet.I couldn’t get through to their webpage when i went to check.
    With betfair when I checked at 17.50 est we were favourite in 72 seats.

  18. Such a pity Kate Ellis did not run as an independant.

    Then, rather than the WOK alliance, we would have had the EWOK alliance.

  19. yes I’m still with us

    I was on the battlefront on that Saturday so didn’t look at odds.
    I think Simon Jackman was storing them on a web page
    somewhere.

    Yes, the 2PP for O’Connor would be similar. I think that
    more of the Nationals preferences leak to ALP over
    Libs than Lib prefs leak to ALP over Nats though so
    that might make a difference.

  20. [Then, rather than the WOK alliance, we would have had the EWOK alliance.]

    Hey, it managed to destroy the Death Star…

  23. #4622
    [ “There’s enough responsibility for this to share around with all of us, and I don’t think there’s anything constructive to be had by singling out a person,” Mr Bevis told AAP.
    “What I do think is important, is there is a genuine, thorough, brutally honest review of how we ended up in this position.
    “We do have to have a good hard look at how we got to this position when we should not have been in this position.”
    ]

    I disagree. Arbib and Bitar should be publicly shamed.

  28. If you count not listening as hangin’ on every word, ok. The audience enthusiastically applauded him.

    I dunno what he did in the 70’s, before my time.

    Can’t change history, let Fraser offer his opinion. It sounded good to me.

  29. So now Ms Gillard has lost her majority (16 seats), the primary vote, the 2pp vote and still thinks she deserves the right to govern. Hhmmmm pull the other one will you!

  30. Glen@4629

    So now Ms Gillard has lost her majority (16 seats), the primary vote, the 2pp vote and still thinks she deserves the right to govern. Hhmmmm pull the other one will you!

    Spoken like a true Liberal in Exile.

    Join the others aty the Fecal Sandwich table.

    And don’t give me the Faux tears of “abuse” either.

    Somehow your beloved Libs won’t get the gig.

  31. Frank everything I said has happened and is true the fact that you choose to disbelieve this quite irrational but you are more than entitled to do so.

    Should Abbott form a govt I would hate to see how you would take it…

  32. Glen@4631

    Frank everything I said has happened and is true the fact that you choose to disbelieve this quite irrational but you are more than entitled to do so.

    Should Abbott form a govt I would hate to see how you would take it…

    This time you will be proven WronG 🙂

    The NBN will sway the Three Amigos.

    Oh and threatening them doesn’t help either.

  33. [So now Ms Gillard has lost her majority (16 seats), the primary vote, the 2pp vote and still thinks she deserves the right to govern. Hhmmmm pull the other one will you!]

    Well considering Abbott has no majority, relies on a combined primary vote of half a dozen parties, may not have won the 2PP and still thinks he deserves the right to govern?

    Well yes he does and so does she. I find it shameful that you of all people are buying this right wing populist BS, Glen. You know parliamentary support is the only thing that matters.

    If the indies support Abbott, I will acknowledge his right to be PM. Can you do the same if they go the other way?

  35. Good. I am honestly getting worried about supporters of both sides. Words like “legitimate” should not be used in the context I have seen them used in lately. Whoever has support of the House is legally our government. I don’t want us to start descending into the polarised atmosphere like in the US where it has become “us v them” and, regardless of who is president, the other side will claim they are not legally entitled to be prez or something like that.

  36. For the record, I am now changing my prediction to an Abbott victory.

    Oakeshott’s body language combined with Windsor dismissing the phone call nonsense as just “Bill being Bill” suggests to me they have already made their mind up and a lot of Bludgers won’t be happy.

    Dunno about Wilkie. I think if he knows their intention and it is indeed the coalition, he’ll declare no support as not to burn bridges.

    I am no psychic and I could be wrong but I have become pessimistic about the situation now.

  37. To Speak @ 4636

    For the record, I am now changing my prediction to an Abbott victory.

    Isn’t there a risk of a DD election?

  38. I mean these were were among the big keywords: “stable government”, able to commit to a full 3 year term … I take it that mean the independents don’t want a DD.

  39. [Isn’t there a risk of a DD election?]

    He’d need a trigger first.

    Abbott and the Libs are good at patiently maneuvering and playing nice until they are in a situation to exert their power. I am sure Abbott will be a cooperative leader who’ll patiently serve the full three years.

    Step one will be establishing himself. This is where he can show it’s not the end of the world with him as PM. He’ll be nice and get along with the indies. After July 1, he’ll even consult with the Greens and try to make the Liberals look like better housemates to the Greens than the ALP. Come 2013, he’ll dutifully call an election. Everyone’s cool with that, he broke no promises.

    Step two, after winning a majority in his own right. He’ll be a bit more forceful of his agenda but make sure it’s a populist one. He’ll try to use the opportunity to force a trigger for a DD election, either on the back of a conservative populist issue that the ALP/Greens will not support (eg capital punishment) or just something right wing to act as a trigger, but he won’t campaign on it.

    Step three, after calling a DD, he may have a little bit less hostile Senate to work with. Now he can implement his grand vision, while trying to wedge the opposition. He needs a divided opposition because he wants that senate to be under coalition majority sometime before the government’s time is up (or at least his support as leader) so he can get the blank cheque to finally craft the nation how he wants.

    Don’t laugh at this, this is how they’ll operate. Anybody who just thinks “Well the Greens will tie his hands and he’ll shoot himself in the foot and not know what to do” need to remember the Liberals are very patient. We can’t take them for granted, nor can we assume the next 3 years will be chaos under them and therefore an indie could never support them.

  40. So grattan admits both that seats have been excluded and that labor is projected to win the 2PP. But she has a feeling in her waters that the coalition win the 2PP so she’s going with it. The MSM all singing from the same hymn sheet. Hope the indies are sensible enough to either ignore this or wait until the count is final. Their response to this “bombshell” will be instructive as to their leanings.

    And only one side is DEMANDING to govern at present. The other is quietly negotiating. What impact might this have?

    Bishop has taken a big risk trumpetting the 2PP at this point. Labor is still predicted to win it. The sensible response would have been its too close to call and we need a final figure, and in any event it will be very close

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