Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.

Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.

UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,641 thoughts on “Morgan phone poll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  2. One of the rare circumstances where I actually care what the preferred PM figures say. I’m presuming the other polling agencies will be out on the field over the weekend and I’ll be fascinated to see what they say on PPM.

  4. sick sick of polls

    fed up with wish they would just all go away.
    do we have to put with this again’ who\

    invented the dam things.

  5. With a moe of 4.3 you can’t really come to any conclusions from this poll. I hope the other pollsters are out in the field

  6. The Pox on both of you poll.

    Politics in Australia changed last weekend, which of the major parties will accept it first?

  7. Well then Tony Abbott has to become PM. His approval ratings are higher and he’s gained in the PPM, and that’s what counts! 😛

  9. Politics in Australia changed last weekend, which of the major parties will accept it first?

    If early evidence is anything to go by, it’s the party that just lost 11 seats. (Fibs are acting like they are the unquestionable victors)

  10. Lead for LNP in Brisbane out to 979. LNP will win. Final results 72 for the ALP and LNP, 1 Ind. National, 1 Green, 4 independents.

  12. If the indies side with Gillard, I’ll eat my hat.

    On you tube, It’sthevibe? And you’ll post us the link?

    Hey. It could go viral!

  13. my say:

    sick sick of polls
    fed up with wish they would just all go away.
    do we have to put with this again’ who
    invented the dam things.

    You have psephitis darling! Quite an unusual malady for this blog!

  14. Can someone explain to me how the pollster choose the area to poll?
    How do they avoid polling in areas within the electorate that have high concentrations of support for either party?

  15. I can’t see how the independents could possibly back Gillard. I can construct all sorts of logical arguments in my mind as to why they would, but when it comes down to it do I really expect them to? No. There’s no risk at all in them supporting the Coalition, whereas they’re risking their jobs supporting Labor.

  16. 13 Trubbell at Mill
    Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 6:46 pm | Permalink
    my say:

    sick sick of polls
    fed up with wish they would just all go away.
    do we have to put with this again’ who
    invented the dam things.

    You have psephitis darling! Quite an unusual malady for this blog!

    first of all i am not your darling.

    I dont really come here for the polls only information re the comments and the news.

    polls to me are well its who you ask on the day and may be you will get lucky

  17. My boss told me that Australia was never under threat from the GFC, never was but then goes onto to tell me that if there is a double dip in the US we will have no money to buffer it.
    What the hell?

  18. Gusface@1021 on Some day this war’s gonna end – The Poll Bludger

    Ru

    So how do we get real media reform? I don’t mean a Rupert Boo – ABC crud type of thing. How do we get journalism back to the level it should be?

    I have suggested more than once that by having a RATINGs type website we could rank the journos

    Not as currently happens,where they rate themselves

    criteria would fall broadly into 3 cats.

    1. Truthfulness
    2. Relevance
    3. Analysis

    to score all 3 would be a welcome change

    My idea is a little bit more subversive, but could also include a rating system as you describe.

    It would work as a browser plug-in for Firefox.
    When you browse to a specific domain, you will be actually redirected through a proxy server (in a safe legal jurisdiction).

    This proxy server would display the content of the web site (say The Australian).
    But it would also make a few enhancements:
    Remove any adds.
    Keep a history of the articles (like you have in Wikipedia).
    Allow “crowd source” annotations from service users.
    Display all unaltered comments from service users (comments which are not published, or have been altered would be highlighted).

    Unfortunately I not have the time or the specific technical competence to build this, but I’m sure something like this will be done one day.

  19. As we were discussing media (and Murdoch) earlier, an article some of you may not have read by John Pilger in March of this year:

    In his latest column for the New Statesman, John Pilger goes back to Australia, where Rupert Murdoch launched his worldwide media empire, and describes how his and Murdoch’s homeland has become a murdochracy – a country where important media, issues and perception are influenced if not dominated by Murdochism: “an inspiration to his choir on seven continents”.

    http://www.johnpilger.com/page.asp?partid=569

  22. 8 ltep
    Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 6:40 pm | Permalink
    my say, you’re on a website called pollbludger

    why the hell would u go out and have poll done when the country is in dia straits

    the msm should have more important things on their mind

  23. [2Dee
    Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 6:52 pm | Permalink
    My boss told me that Australia was never under threat from the GFC, never was but then goes onto to tell me that if there is a double dip in the US we will have no money to buffer it.
    What the hell?

    ask him seriously if you can if his super is still intact i bet it s not

  24. Dee they poll by random sampling. The mathematical probalities of the randomisations give the polls the validity. As you increase the sample size you decrease the potential error. Eg if i polled 2 people and they both said party a, i would have a poll but the margin of error nearly 100%

  25. Meanwhile some professional advertising people have passed judgement on the advertising campaigns of the Labs/Libs:

    Stuart Gregor, boss of lifestyle PR agency Liquid Ideas said:
    “From the communication perspective, they treated the electorate like we were dickheads. I’d have got rid of the bullshit slogans, the cliches, the repetition of sloganism. Anybody who had anything to do with either of the campaigns should be at Centrelink Monday.”

    More and video at: http://mumbrella.com.au/both-parties-blew-their-comms-campaigns-by-treating-the-electorate-like-dickheads-32269#more-32269

  26. Don’t forget that they need to be paid. Quality journalism costs.

    This is a huge problem for the MSM – there still isn’t a good business model on the net to make enough money. Journalists are squeezed, that’s why they churn out crap.

    Maybe the William Bowes of this world are the future for journos. Do ya make enough dough William?

    Musrum, you need to think of how they can be paid. I’m not doubting your idea though.

  27. Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
    I can’t see how the independents could possibly back Gillard. I can construct all sorts of logical arguments in my mind as to why they would, but when it comes down to it do I really expect them to? No. There’s no risk at all in them supporting the Coalition, whereas they’re risking their jobs supporting Labor.

    because they have high ideals and dont chop and change their opinons like you

  28. Out of curiosity. I saw that Get Up challenged some aspects of the Howard electoral Laws. What exactly was the legal argument? Also could there be any basis in regards to votes not being counted because they moved addresses in the same electorate?

    I do not much about how the constitution applies to electoral laws. So i am just interested?

  30. whereas they’re risking their jobs supporting Labor.

    Yeah, I just know they’re pining to return back to the days of sitting on the crossbenches, being completely irrelevent.

    Julia is trying to earn their support. Tone expects it. If they were smart, they would go for what actually gives them real influence. Even if it means losing the next election.

    Oh, and conservative independents have supported Labor governments before and not faced electoral defeat.

  32. Can someone tell me the speaker nomination process…. can a single member nominate himself/herself… is there any kind of quorum required for nomination?

    When it comes to the actual vote, it seems that a nominee can refuse the nomination and therefore not be part of the vote – right?

    Can the speakership come to the floor for a vote with, for example, 5 different nominees each of which has agreed for their name to be put forward?

  33. If Labor is smart, it is already doing some contingency planning for an early poll. It may not want one, but the possibility has to be recognised.

    Some issues it has to address ASAP:

    1. Should Kevin Rudd be installed as Foreign Minister immediately upon the calling of a fresh election? That makes sense, surely.

    2. Shift Stephen Smith into Finance at the same time.

    3. Sack Karl Bitar.

    4. Harden up the policy on setting a price on carbon, and prepare to campaign vigorously on that front.

    5. Prepare to campaign hard on the economic stability front, highlighting
    Abbott’s latest flip-flop on costings, among other inconsistencies.

  34. I think that your idea is very interesting Musrum @ 18. I also think that we need something like the Colbert Report – I mean the very best way to get at conservatives is through satire. It has worked since the beginning of time. The one thing they hate more than taxes is thinking that people are laughing at them. We are supposed to show reverent awe. The Chaser could have done it but I think they have been muzzled by the ‘balance’ requirement of the ABC. Not sure how but I think that should be thrown into the mix.

  35. Sorry, and if I could additionally ask, if multiple nominees for the speakership vote then is it a first-past-the post election? ie if A gets 70, B gets 60, C gets 10, D gets 5 and E gets 5 then A is elected speaker?

  36. Oscar,

    How refreshing to see the Abbott supports have not completely lost their sense of humour!

    So you can’t trust the Treasury because the ACT votes 57.85% ALP? Presumably this means you can’t trust any government department at all?

    So how do you expect to govern? Are you going to sack the entire public service? Or only the ones who voted Labor?

    It looks very much like the Libs & their media arm, News Ltd have declared war on the Treasury. This “piece” by Sinclair Davidson really lets rip on Ken Henry & Co in a big way.

    This is to me a disgusting interference in, and denigration by the Oz of the Public Service and its ability to give impartial and sound advice to Government.

    In the first instance, as the Coalition has made clear, Treasury has already leaked Coalition policy costings. This is an act of extraordinary bad faith and reflects poorly on what should be the premier policy department in the commonwealth public service.

    But that is just the tip of the iceberg. Treasury has become partisan. We’ve known this since Ken Henry was highly critical of Coalition policy in a leaked speech before the 2007 election. Matters were made worse during the Kevin Rudd prime ministership when cabinet was bypassed and Treasury seemingly elevated to decision-making status.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
    Related Coverage

    * NBN under scrutiny by country MPs Australian IT, 1 day ago
    * Abbott cites leak for costings stance The Australian, 1 day ago
    * Treasury costing to test surplus claims The Australian, 1 day ago
    * Key MPs name price for power The Australian, 1 day ago
    * For want of an agenda The Australian, 3 days ago

    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

    Lenore Taylor and David Uren’s excellent account of the Rudd era, Shitstorm: Inside Labor’s Darkest Days, tells how Treasury was involved in managing Australia’s response to the global financial crisis; in particular, how Treasury had abandoned longstanding economic principles and decided it would be the first to recommend fiscal intervention in the event of an economic slowdown. Then there was its strong endorsement of pink batts and the “Rudd bank”, and the not-so-small matter of the mining tax.

    That last ill-fated proposal was dreamed up in Treasury and foisted on an unsuspecting public. To make matters worse, Treasury made several factual mistakes during the process, arguing, for example, that Australian mining companies paid about 17 per cent in tax and quoting an academic US working paper to that effect when, in fact, the effective rate of tax mining companies pay when you add in all taxes and royalties is about 41 per cent. Not to mention the kerfuffle over the amount of revenue the Resource Super-Profits Tax would raise relative to the minerals resource rent tax. Would the RSPT have raised $12 billion or $24bn? Was the revenue cost of the change to the MRRT $1.5bn or $6bn?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/replace-this-partisan-treasury-with-an-independent-budget-office/story-e6frgd0x-1225910613675

  38. Ru/Musrum
    Your terminology has left me way behind. What I would like is a central site that provides links to other sites where people can discuss or write articles. I think there are msm journalists who deep down would love to get other messages out there. At the moment I read ( and just recently contribute to) Crikey and the Daily Bludge. There must be other sites that I dont know of or can’t access. Do things like facebook and twitter have a role in fitting in with this? I’m throwing the idea out there without a clue how it could be done. I have time to help with any of this but not the expertise.

  39. Having now seen Oakeshott’s grab where he talks of his natural leanings to the conservatives I reiterate the statement I made on the other thread.

    Abbott has given ground on costings because he has been assured that doing so will give Windsor and Oakeshot plausible grounds for supporting the coalition. Blowouts will be irrelevant and glossed over.

  40. 1. Should Kevin Rudd be installed as Foreign Minister immediately upon the calling of a fresh election? That makes sense, surely.

    2. Shift Stephen Smith into Finance at the same time.

    No new appointments can be made during a caretaker period and I think that includes ministers.

  42. Boothby looks like a beat-up according to the AEC state manager.

    Mr Drury said the incident was a “novel situation” and he expected legal advice to be delivered “in the next day or so”.

    No disciplinary action had been taken against the worker and a by-election was unlikely, he said.

    “I’m looking at this as a technical issue and possible breach of the way votes should be handled,” he said.

    “I can’t see any political issue in that.”

    Mr Drury said the disputed votes favoured Dr Southcott by 339.

  43. Musrum, you need to think of how they can be paid.

    They said that when Town Criers were made redundant

    btw the first “newspaper” was in 1605, bet the town criers read the writing on the wall

    LOL

  44. My view is that if the three amigos support the Coalition……there will never be a shift in the political paradigm………..at least not in the foreseeable future

    Independents will be put back into their respective boxes and it will be business as usual…..

    Only if the Indies support the progressive Gillard govt. will they be taken as a serious force in the future…….will they grasp this once in a lifetime opportunity to change the political landscape?????

    I don’t have any confidence that they will……..

  45. Boothby looks like a beat-up according to the AEC state manager.

    Nevertheless, there should be a recount just to play it safe. However, a by-election is unlikely

  48. Abbott will be Prime Minister. It will be a bumpy ride till then, but inevitably O,W and K will support him ( along with Crook). Oakshott suprised me when he announced his leanings publicly. When Abbott takes over his PPM will skyrocket, and the ALP will descend into chaos ( like the Libs late last year). Another election within two years -a strong Abbott win.

  49. Nevertheless, there should be a recount just to play it safe.

    So long as no votes have been or could have been added, altered or removed.. I’m fine with that.

  50. Dee

    Mr Drury said the disputed votes favoured Dr Southcott by 339

    Out of 3000?

    Yes.

    On another matter, Oakeshott looks very Labor according to this. I don’t think anyone should be confident he will go with Abbott.

    COALITION figures have warned that key parliamentary powerbroker Rob Oakeshott is too close to Labor and out of step with his electorate

    Nationals advertising for the 2008 by-election that saw the independent win the NSW north coast seat of Lyne attacked him as a Labor stooge.

    Their fears appeared confirmed when Kerry Hickey, the Labor MP for the state seat of Cessnock, a three-hour drive away, was spotted on a polling booth in an Oakeshott T-shirt handing out how-to-vote cards.

    Nationals historian Paul Davey says the positions Mr Oakeshott has taken on a range of issues have been “fairly un-National”.

    Parliamentary records show Mr Oakeshott has sided with the Coalition 19 times in the 84 votes on legislation he has participated in since he became an MP.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/the-coalition-has-warned-that-rob-oakeshott-is-too-close-to-labor/story-fn59niix-1225910634989

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