In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.
Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.
UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.
RNM1953 @38 Your idea is definitely doable. It just mean hosting a site and people contribute links etc. A forum to discuss the news of the day and perhaps some space of contributions from interested readers. It needs to be like this one in tone (and I don’t mean Abbott -like) – that is it doesn’t push a particular agenda other than to put pressure on the news providers to lift their game. A lot of other sites I have seen are fine except they end up being the soap box of a particular individual and their poltical views. Perhaps a link from this site could do the job. It does some people with time to monitor.
[They said that when Town Criers were made redundant]
Lord Rupert of Murdoch owned the Town Crier’s Guild.
“Hear ye! Hear ye! Let it be known that the good land owning men of the shires of Lyne, Kennedy and New England desire that their local parliamentary representatives support Sir Anthony of Abbott over Lady Julia of Gillard for First Lord of the Treasury! God save the King!”
ltep went
I can’t see how the independents could possibly back abbott. I can construct all sorts of logical arguments in my mind as to why they would, but when it comes down to it do I really expect them to? No. There’s no risk at all in them supporting the ALP, whereas they’re risking the future of their country supporting abbott.
What a joke. Only someone with the Abbort’s capacity for hollow double-speak could come out now and attempt to present his forced backdown on policy costings as a ‘win’.
Oakshott also took in a refugee who had sewn his lips together in a Howard detention centre and let him live in his home.
Hardly a vote of confidence in Stop the Boats.
[On another matter, Oakeshott looks very Labor according to this. I don’t think anyone should be confident he will go with Abbott.]
The Oz is trying to terrorise the independents into submission. Do they have the guts to make their own minds up? Doubt it.
Dio thanks for that as it reminds me of a question I had:
What is the voting history of the undies? How often do they side with one side or the other? We have Oakeshott – what about Windsor and Katter?
have to agree dave. this will test what sort of stuff the indies are made of.
[first of all i am not your darling.]
my say, me?
Their support for ALP legislationm falls roughly in that order.
IIRC, Oakeshott is about 55%, Windsor 50% and Katter 30%.
BigBob @60 – thanks – more promising than I thought it would be.
Newspoll, ALP 100 Coalition 0
[Parliamentary records show Mr Oakeshott has sided with the Coalition 19 times in the 84 votes on legislation he has participated in since he became an MP.]
That has to be very telling. His electorate is obviously comfortable with him voting Labor the overwhelming majority of the time.
This one definitely ain’t over yet!!
[Dee
Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 6:54 pm | Permalink
I can’t see how the independents could possibly back Gillard.
I can’t either. They always revert to type].
my goodness you have changed your tune
Diog, you are still here. i thought you have migrated to England.
[What a joke. Only someone with the Abbort’s capacity for hollow double-speak could come out now and attempt to present his forced backdown on policy costings as a ‘win’.]
The Rabbott has been getting away with this type of crap for months. It is always retold as if he is some hero, an honest down to earth guy.
Worse still. The electorate fell for it.
[Oakshott suprised me when he announced his leanings publicly.]
Me too.
Disappointing really – not nearly as independent as I’d hope.
BigBob
Did Oakeshott abstain a lot coz he only voted with the Libs 23% of the time?
[in the 84 votes on legislation he has participated in since he became an MP.
That has to be very telling. His electorate is obviously comfortable with him voting Labor the overwhelming majority of the time.
This one definitely ain’t over yet!]
was this pointed out to the media
Heard Crook on the local ABC radio: says he is happy to be a one term MP as long as he can get a better deal for WA. Didn’t hear all of it. Did anyone else? He sounded sane for a WA Nat. I could be dreaming.
The Crying Town would be a good website name.
I am happy to contribute,but my webby skills are pretty crap
[I am happy to contribute,but my webby skills are pretty crap]
Gus, try me 👿
[59 The Finnigans
Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 7:28 pm | Permalink
first of all i am not your darling.
my say, me]
thats ok finns i had never heard that other person before.
No they didn’t Dee @66 – he only got a 2% swing after all that sweat.
finns are you thinking of a chat line where you could just discuss policies
Finns
[Diog, you are still here. i thought you have migrated to England.]
Their bookstores were crap. And they had no rubbish bins.
And you weren’t there.
my say, never been to a chatline. my mother told me it’s scary place 😉
[55 ruawake
Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 7:25 pm | Permalink
Oakshott also took in a refugee who had sewn his lips together in a Howard detention centre and let him live in his home.
Hardly a vote of confidence in Stop the Boats.]
very similar story with wilkie
Finns
i think Ru is willing to host
and some others said they would contribute
The time has come
Diog, :kiss: :kiss: :kiss:
streetcred went –
You are absolutely right there streetcred. But it will be a big surprise if he is ever called on it. I’m confident you have seen the following –
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/briefings-deal-significant-win-abbott-20100827-13v0s.html?autostart=1
Now the age is one of our better newspapers and in fairness they are reporting what abbott has said, but one would think the so called *significant win* should be called for the turd that it is.
Just don’t hold your breadth waiting for a journo to have the balls to say so.
It never ceases to amaze me that people cannot see that the Libs are a bunch of goons. What is worse they vote for them.
Sorry just venting.
[The Finnigans
Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
my say, never been to a chatline. my mother told me it’s scary place]
well i often do we discuss sewing great one yesterday from the editor of Threads magazine
Diog,
Maybe, I may have the figure wrong – it was from a spray in the Oz, I believe.
The order is correct though – as you point out, Oakeshott has been much more likely to vote for the ALP’s legislation than the other two.
The other thing to remember is that both Katter and Windsor have relatively poor attendance records for votes – possibly to do with the fact that up until now, it didn’t matter if they voted or not. (Katter has an abysmal record, IIRC).
[and some others said they would contribute, The time has come]
Funny that Gus, we said the same thing with Webdiary, with Margo Kingston when she was kicked out by SMH. And we did.
Funnily enough. the SMH is calling it an Abbott ‘cave-in’!
Usually The Age is less sympathetic to the Coalition.
People should stop putting the Crooked One in the same basket as the Coalition. The Crooked One said i aint the one.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201008/r628017_4260899.asx
Have people seen this – very interesting. MT‘s tale on a DD is instructive. Perhaps we need to look a bit more closely at his fellow.
Well get to it
Ru
Finns the man!
my say
[my goodness you have changed your tune]
I haven’t changed my tune.
What I am saying my say is that I don’t have faith in the independents to go with the ALP.
Do you think they have the guts & the fortitude to withstand the onslaught of the Coalition Murdoch machine?
Katter come out guns blazing then went to mush at the first poll.
I have also lost faith in the wider electorate to recognise when they are being sold a dud.
Coalition: 72+1=73
ALP/Grn: 72+1=73
Result: deadlock
Enter Independents x 4
What’s to stop the Indies remaining just that and not supporting either side.
Agree to ensure supply and only vote in no confidence motion IF it is genuine and not contrived by either side.
Maintain their independence and vote according to their individual consciences/policy positions..
Result: Lots of negotiating and better decisions………..can it work????
[you have changed your tune]
My say, i always change my tunes, quite a few times a day.
I hope that I am proved wrong but I can’t help but feel all those bludgers who are hanging out fpr the rural indies to announce they are going to support Labor are really being played for a bunch of suckers.
Katter and co are just making sure that Abbott has to sweat a bit and has a few sleepless nights before they eventually side with him.Once again I very much hope I am proven wrong but if you want to avoid dissapointment expect the expected.
[RNM1953
Posted Friday, August 27, 2010 at 7:09 pm | Permalink
Ru/Musrum
Your terminology has left me way behind. What I would like is a central site that provides links to other sites where people can discuss or write articles. I think there are msm journalists who deep down would love to get other messages out there. At the moment I read ( and just recently contribute to) Crikey and the Daily Bludge. There must be other sites that I dont know of or can’t access. Do things like facebook and twitter have a role in fitting in with this? I’m throwing the idea out there without a clue how it could be done. I have time to help with any of this but not the expertise]
would be amazing in stead of watching news just come here read the links and here and see what you want instead of some journalist telling you how to think
and also could see exactly what should be sorted the chaff from the real position.
i say go for it. and you could have some adds from independent areas nothing to do with news you know lawn mower companies for example.
[Heard Crook on the local ABC radio: says he is happy to be a one term MP as long as he can get a better deal for WA.]
Now do you really believe that?
I also think the indies will go with Abbott – but live to regret it
a few things which might swing them the other way:
Bob Katter is 65, Tony Windsor is 60 – this could be their one chance (and last chance) to acheive whatever they have spent a life in politics for. Will Abbott give it to them?
The bad blood with the Nationals – I don’t think we have heard the last of this yet
[Bob Katter thinks the Greens are a side dish to go with his steak]
[@PressGallery: Bob Katter showers with his hat on]
[Bob Katter can squeeze orange juice out of a lemon]
[Bob Katter can speak brail]
hak hak hak! =)
[What’s to stop the Indies remaining just that and not supporting either side.]
They need to make a decision. If they decide to not oppose confidence/supply for Labor that is agreeing to have a Labor Government. If they decide to oppose confidence for Labor but not the Coalition, that is agreeing to a Coalition Government.
@The Finnigans & @Gusface & @ruawake
It sounds like you guys are talking about putting together some sort of communal blog / alternative media source. If you’re not already aware, I run the Daily Bludge (www.dailybludge.com.au) and have provided a platform whereby you can contribute your own blog posts.
You submit them in the right-hand column, and I tend to “feature” them as a main headline article if they are of decent length.
I’ve also got a small live chat system setup there as well, and also forums – http://www.ozforums.com.au
All running off a dedicated server, so can support a large amount of traffic 🙂
If you want to discuss closer collaboration, e-mail me admin@dailybludge.com.au
@82, I know exactly how you feel. Problem is if you call the voters a bunch of idiots (and I have) you just end up finding yourself speaking that which cannot be said. If you point out the utter bastardry of a media hell bent on violating the truth for every reason from personal promotion to personal stupidity to outright treason then you end up with the usual ritual deflections. We’re on a slippery slope towards endemic corruption and worse.