In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.
Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.
UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.
BigBob
The indies are almost never there!!
[Mr Oakeshott has been absent from 71 of the 237 divisions held since he became an MP.
Mr Windsor has missed 158 of the 345 divisions since the 2007 election and Mr Katter, who can be a rare sight in the House of Representatives chamber, 264.]
You were right about their voting records. Their absenteeism muddies the waters considerably.
[Rob Oakeshott has been the biggest backer of the ALP, voting with the Rudd and Gillard governments in 55 per cent of all the divisions he has participated in since becoming an MP after a September 2008 by-election. His crossbench colleagues have tended to side more with the Coalition.
Tony Windsor voted with Labor 41 per cent of the time, while Bob Katter backed the government in just 30 per cent of the divisions he attended.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/election/independent-trio-on-song-if-not-always-in-tune/story-e6frgdbf-1225910123176
Itep @ 95 Do I believe it? Hey – my grey hairs have taught me great caution – but also that just when you think you have the world sorted into round and square – you can be surprised. Humans are infinitely fascinating.
[You were right about their voting records. Their absenteeism muddies the waters considerably.]
Why should the independents turn up to every pointless censure or gag motion?
markjs. You have missed one critical step. A government needs to be chosen/ supported. For that to happen the indis need to vote with one side or another on the house floor. They also need to guarantee supply and support in event of no confidence motions, THEN they can be independent, as in vote on bills etc as they see fit.
Twit, twit, twit from leighsales. she is a very nice hostess, especially on the Late Late Show.
[#Whenever I get a viewer letter addressed to “LS, Lateline Hostess”, my expectations for its content are not high. about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
# Tonight: mulling over the week in politics with Anthony Albanese and Andrew Robb. Early time of 1010pm. Lateline ABC1. ]
Hey ShowsOn, did you help with the Sturt campaign this time?
[Parliamentary records show Mr Oakeshott has sided with the Coalition 19 times in the 84 votes on legislation he has participated in since he became an MP.]
IIRC, his rationale was his belief in “letting a government govern” rather than actually siding with Labor’s policy.
Sounds like total plop and may just be spin to prevent his constituents from getting mad at him.
[@The Finnigans & @Gusface & @ruawake
It sounds like you guys are talking about putting together some sort of communal blog / alternative media source.]
Am i? i thought i have done my bit with Margo on Webdiary, pioneering blogging when people thought blogging was just another way of saying logging.
Also westoz tory – you are no doubt right about the fate of the two independents from New South Wales if they were to support Labor but my brother lives in Katters electorate and I can tell you he is a cult hero up there,he can support whoever he likes and will still hold his seat easily.
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/NewsVids.html?vid=News%2FBob-Katter.f4v&title=Bob%20Katter%20-%20the%20singing%20politician
Bob Katter can sing??? :O
I see that the ABC’s election website says “Note: The Coalition’s total of 73 seats includes Tony Crook from the WA Nationals, however he has indicated he intends to sit on the crossbenches”
Just so you know as someone who leans slightly towards the Labor Party, I think this election has provided a good result. It’s been very clear for a while that the organisational party needs to reexamine itself and this election has provided the kick up the ass the party has sorely needed. Let’s hope that they can foster a deal with the Independents and get back to governing in an authentic way (ala the Hawke/Keating years) as that should preside over everything else at the moment.
As for the Liberal Party, it’s only a matter of time before the moderates want their progressive party back. For now they’ll put on a united showing as they have won a lot of seats, but there will be a point during the next term where something snaps and they’ll return to the way they were in November last year (this time without Tuckey and Minchin leading the way). Malcolm Turnbull is not a man who likes to be kept waiting.
The Independents wil not remain deadlocked IMO. If they are seen to cause a return to the polls they will suffer in popularity, plus they lose their bargaining position. They will do a deal if they are sane, and all are sane when you understand where they come from, even Katter.
No wonder these country Independents have no policies. They don’t take their jobs seriously, they rarely turn up to work.
Dio,
Thought I remembered correctly, apart from over remembering Windsor’s support.
Not a bad gig – fly in business class around the country on the tax payer and only turn up when you feel like it for a vote.
At least party discilpline forces the aligned members to attend to the most basic duty of a parliamentarian.
I don’t think this paints them as the saints people like to think they are.
I posted this earlier in the day. Ted Ballieu OL of Liberals in State of Vic. in response to polls showing increased popularity of State Labor, said that it was because of the federal election. and that Julia Gillard is very popular in her home state, and that has translated to State Labor.
I live in a parallel universe!!
[There’s no risk at all in them supporting the Coalition, whereas they’re risking their jobs supporting Labor.]
How would they be risking their jobs? they are all on 2PP margins of 60% plus. what is the good of that political capital if they don’t use it to benefit the country. I think Oakshott and Windsor are both acutely aware of that and don’t want to have any regrets on their choice. the chance to make lasting change will be greater on the progressive side of politics.
Its absolutely amazing. The country independents want “parliamentary reform” – yet none of them has a policy for parliamentary reform. They are asking Labor and Liberals to write a policy for them. Clowns.
[I can’t help but feel all those bludgers who are hanging out fpr the rural indies to announce they are going to support Labor are really being played for a bunch of suckers.
Katter and co are just making sure that Abbott has to sweat a bit and has a few sleepless nights before they eventually side with him.Once again I very much hope I am proven wrong but if you want to avoid dissapointment expect the expected.]
Maybe , Pedro, but if this does , indeed, occur, I very much doubt that it will be more than a couple of months before we see a situation where the Independents feel they would be utterly and impossibly compromised by supporting a Coalition proposal. The Libs are probably great for the pin striped suits. The Nats have been the very best friends of the mining companies for the last couple of decades, even when it involves planting the odd jackboot or two on the heads of any real farmer.
The independents aren’t fools. THey know all this and Windsor and Oakeshott get their votes from people who couldn’t really give a monkey’s about the situation of some tiddlywink Perth based WA “miner” writing off his income as a tax dodge against some pretended exploration scheme. Just have a look at the last census results for industries of employment in their electorates and you will see what I mean.
Talk about tolerance from WB. You guys conspiring to set up in competition of WB and others? Cheeky buggers. I like the format here, and it is popular. Good luck if it works!
About the best I can see happening is ALP + Greens + Wilkie reaching a formal agreement and the independents agreeing to abstain from confidence/supply motions with a statement that the people must change the Government rather than 3 independent MPs. They chose to leave the National Party for a reason.
In exchange for abstaining from confidence/supply motions they can extract several concessions and notify the Government that they will withdraw support if they show any signs of disunity, incompetence or failure to look after regional interests.
Actually katter won’t support either party…
blames deregulation of sugar, dairy farming, bananas on the fibs.
blames fishing, mining and forestry on the fabs.
blames a whole lot actually.
he won’t be dealing himself in on either side.
windsor is pro coal mining. he would be leaning away from lab.
72+1+1+1 = 75 to LNP
oakeshott i have no idea.
72+1+1+1 = 75 to ALP.
katter will probably abstain from the vote, so who goes first will win.
NBN is vital to the nations future and the indies WILL insist this proceeds. Abbott might agree, and backflip with double triple pike, but unlikely.
Anyone with a functioning brain supports the mining tax, even in its ireduced level which gillard has confirmed labor will honour. The numbers are huge over say 10 years, but the profits the big miners are booking are much, much, much bigger. Our nation could do soo much with that income and all australians will share it. Abbott might agree, and backflip with double triple pike, but very unlikely.
I just do not see how the indies, who appear very genuine people could turn their backs on the above. Then there is the ongoing issue of how a conservative government would get its bills through the senate after august 2011.
Nope it just will not happen. Its either indies support ALP or back to the polls. The chances of them backing abbott is very low – and correctly so.
Dave@104
My understanding is that the incumbent PM has the right to test his/her govt on the floor of parliament…
The Independents have no right to CHOOSE a party to run the country……that’s parliament’s prerogative…..
In the event of a deadlock as I described above……Julia would be given that opportunity by the GG…..
SNIP: Overheated comment deleted – The Management.
[Anyone with a functioning brain supports the mining tax, even in its ireduced level which gillard has confirmed labor will honour. The numbers are huge over say 10 years, but the profits the big miners are booking are much, much, much bigger. Our nation could do soo much with that income and all australians will share it. Abbott might agree, and backflip with double triple pike, but very unlikely. ]
Katter and Windsor have coal mining interests…. i don’t think thats likely.
I can barely see a LNP min gov functioning…. but when hades freezes and katter puts his skates on i think they will support ALP.
[They need to make a decision. If they decide to not oppose confidence/supply for Labor that is agreeing to have a Labor Government. If they decide to oppose confidence for Labor but not the Coalition, that is agreeing to a Coalition Government.]
What if they decide not to oppose confidence/supply for either side does it then fall on the incumbent to form government? ie can’t Gilliard just test this on the floor of the house?
markjs, who would be the Speaker under your suggestion? Labor would need all their votes plus Wilkie and Bandt to be 1 vote ahead of the Coalition. This leaves them no room to appoint a Speaker.
[Hey ShowsOn, did you help with the Sturt campaign this time?]
Yes. Sadly it didn’t help much.
dave
I tend to agree with you. Most here are quite pessimistic about the chances of Labor forming a minority govt. They have incumbency, the better policies that are costed. I don’t see anything that suggests to me that the indies want to go with the coalition. Yes, they are being bullied by News Ltd., and to some extent the coalition, but they have stated that they will not be playing these games, and will not reward that behaviour.
What the indies say and do are two different things. We have to wait and see.
It is still a 50/50 proposition.
BTW there is serious anger in the bush towards labor/left – look at the state wide breakdowns… how many bush seats are the ALP holding???
just as don wrote….
Yes spectator, but first there’d need to be a Speaker. I suppose they could reappoint Jenkins and then with the support of Wilkie and Bandt tie the vote and then have Jenkins cast a vote in the Government’s favour. That’s workable.
SO@103:
[Why should the independents turn up to every pointless censure or gag motion?]
I rarely agree with you SO, but there you have nailed it.
[I am in Tony Windsor’s electorate, and he does more work for his electorate and for Australia in one minute than you have done in your entire life.]
As you are on the ground there, what’s your thought on Windsor’s reelection prospects if he supports a)Abbott b) Gillard?
[Yes. Sadly it didn’t help much.]
You still did your bit. Thank you.
@Radguy
[Talk about tolerance from WB. You guys conspiring to set up in competition of WB and others? Cheeky buggers. I like the format here, and it is popular. Good luck if it works!]
To clarify, I was not suggesting anything in competition with PB. This format works well as a forum for flowing discussion. It does not, however, serve as an adequate platform to publish article-length analysis. Hence why I pointed people towards the open blog approach that I have set up at the Daily Bludge.
oakeshott is in a notionally conservative seat so I assume with no indi running it would be won by lib or nat. But oakeshotts views seem to me to be a bit to the left of the alp, or am I reading him wrong?
The speaker, as I understand it, has a casting vote in the case of a tied vote…..
I don’t have an answer to your question Itep…….but am sure others on here can sort that one out……….
Have consulted http://www.aph.gov.au/house/pubs/standos/pdf/chapter3.pdf for what happens on the Reps reconvening.
The clerk (Bernard Wright – he’s gonna get his 15 minutes) invites nominations for the vacant office of Speaker. Anyone who is nominated, seconded and accepts the nomination goes to the vote after debate (max 5 minutes each, subject to a motion that ballot be taken being passed). A nominee must receive the majority of votes to be elected. If noone with a majority, the nominee with least votes is removed and a fresh vote held (if two nominees are tied on least votes, then a special vote to decide who to remove!).
ALP should organise the nomination and seconding of EACH of Bronwyn Bishop (or insert possible Lib that could accept nomination against party wishes!), Bob Katter, Crook and Windsor. The question will be whether every one of them will not accept the nomination. This way they keep their 72 + Bandt, Wilkie and need 1 more vote to both win confidence plus pass any legislation going forward.
Coalition should prob nominate/second EACH of Jenkins, Wilkie, Bandt, Oakshott and see if anyone will accept the nomination. From their perspective, they need their 72 + Crook + presumably Katter and Windsor to get a majority on the floor.
Imagine if every single nominee refuses to accept nomination to the Speaker’s position!!! The only precedent for this is Ant Green’s reference to Newfoundland 1908 – and there the Govenor had to dissolve parliament.
If any deal with the Amigos is for confidence only but not to support any legislation, then who is speaker is a massive deal… to give up one of your own as speaker (and go to 71) means you need 4 of Katter/Oak/Wind/Crook/Bandt/Wilkie to pass anything.
You’d have to want any of these 6 to be speaker rather than give up one of your own?
This is going to be incredible in how it all plays out
They have to support one side or another, firstly to
– choose the speaker
– then test who has the support of the house.
Labor may get the first chance as you suggest but one side or another will seek an indication from the indies as to who they are going to support when the house first sits.
Wal, this is why the bush needs the net. They are fed garbage journalism.
Capriconia, Lingiari (alice springs is a factor), Wakefield, Page (semi-rural) and Corangamite (semi-rural) are the only bush seats held by labor.
that speaks volumes.
[Yes. Sadly it didn’t help much.]
Which polling booth were you on this time? I recall we both did Highbury at the same time last election. I was at Athelstone West this time (Newton).
What did you think of the campaign in the seat? I wasn’t that close to it, so don’t have a great feel for it, but it seemed there was a lot less money this time based on the mail I received. Pyne seemed to be spending 2-3 times more from what I could guess.
jj, your site is cool. If WB were annoyed, I’m sure he would mention it.
[No wonder these country Independents have no policies. They don’t take their jobs seriously, they rarely turn up to work.]
If they are spending their time in Canberra attending to electorate business rather than pointless barracking in the Reps when their votes are superfluous, then maybe they are taking their jobs more seriously than others.
[I live in a parallel universe!!]
LOL!
Where do you reckon we should make the cut, victoria?
I suspect that with not much work we could actually successfully secede by leaving “Australia” with everything north west of the Darling in the east and the Finders Ranges in SA, and west of the dividing range up to about Townsville. It would, I know, be unkind to people living in the vast majority of the NT, and even those in the far SW of WA, and the Pitj lands and maybe even Broome, but , hey, we can’t please everyone! That will leave the tax grab deduction explorers with plenty of land to play in (though only if they actually know how to make their quid from exploring, rather than high rise property development, I suspect)
Hey, people on the other side of this divide have been saying they should cut loose from us for decades! Maybe we should just take them at their word!
Well, can any of you believe this situation!
I fell sorry for Julia who is holding this shambles for Labor together stoicly, but why is this happening at all?
Could it be that throwing money around like confetti wasn’t conning most of the population, I mean New Zealand had little stimulus and their unemployment rate is only 1.5% higher than ours.
I don’t deny the fine new school halls are magnificent, I was amazed at my old school when I voted, and those edifices are there forever, but in general it seems like overkill.
But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Liberals are going to reap the ultimate benefit from all that just at Labor reaped the benefit from the years of Liberal surpluses.
I hope for Julia’s sake that she hasn’t miscalulated in allowing the Liberals to submit their so called secret costings to Treasury to the Independents, quite frankly I don’t think she should blink at this stage, even though it is Statesmanlike, in reality good doesn’t triumph that often.
On that if you lot and Labor continue to underestimate Abbott it is at your grave peril, surely you see that the time of crass name calling should be over, he is formidable and that is that!
Radguy@119 We are talking about how we can challenge the Murdocracy. Is this the site for that? If it that is fine – if that falls outside this site’s parameters – then we need to look at the options.
what both parties need right now is another Mal Colston – someone who will sell out for the salary, luxury and cocktail parties which the Speakership is
imagine the perks an Ambassador in a 1st world country gets, add on power and a fair bit of forelock tugging – very tempting.
[oakeshott is in a notionally conservative seat so I assume with no indi running it would be won by lib or nat. But oakeshotts views seem to me to be a bit to the left of the alp, or am I reading him wrong?]
Being to the left of the ALP wouldn’t be hard. The ALP is essentially a moderately conservative party.
pithicus,
the Northern coastal NSW seats are a different breed to other rural seats.
They will eventually all be ALP/Greens seats due to sea and tree changers.
Oakeshott is trying to ride that change by being economically on the conservative side while espousing sonme progressive social policies.
He is actually probably a ‘scale’ model of the ALP’s position – partly trapped between two demographics with lots of irrevocable differences between them.
As an Independent, he can get away with it by being anti-establishment. Now he actually has to make a choice, he is going to go through ‘interesting times’ as the Chinese proverb/curse alludes to.