In normal circumstances a poll conducted immediately after an election would be intrinsically uninteresting, but for those of you have just joined us, present circumstances aren’t normal. Enter Roy Morgan, which has published a small-sample phone poll of 530 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. This shows Labor’s primary vote at 36 per cent compared with 38.4 per cent at the election and the Coalition on 40 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent, while the Greens are up 1.6 per cent to 13 per cent and “others” benefiting from their post-election high profile with a 4.4 per cent increase to 11 per cent. Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with what looks like being very close to 50-50 at the election. The margin of error on these results is about 4.3 per cent.
Julia Gillard is favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 44-36, down from 48-37 on August 3, but Abbott’s approval rating is higher than Gillard’s – the former up one on approval to 53 per cent and steady on disapproval at 38 per cent, the latter respectively up three to 49 per cent and down two to 37 per cent. Interestingly, questions on preferred party leaders find Malcolm Turnbull (up three since a month ago to 32 per cent) favoured as Liberal leader over Tony Abbott (down one to 23 per cent), while Julia Gillard has dropped 17 points to 35 per cent and Kevin Rudd is up four to 25 per cent.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission announces it will conduct a “provisional” distribution of preferences in Denison to ascertain whether the Liberals are likely to be excluded from the count before Andrew Wilkie, a necessary precondition for the latter winning the seat. Those wishing to discuss the Denison count in particular are asked to do so on the relevant thread.
UPDATE: Newspoll replicates the Galaxy exercise in Kennedy, Lyne and New England, with a much bigger sample and much the same result: 54-34 in favour of the Coalition, with little variation between the three seats.
Doyley, I think Duckula was a vegetarian vampire and could go outside in the daytime so we should be right. 🙂
Another reason to hate Three Boats – he’s made Malcolm into someone we almost like
(but must maintain the rage).
malcolm fraser is a sham. he resurrected himself through african policies which is ok, and through the goodwill of gough, but put to test as q and a tonight cannot justify 1975 – he decided to deny supply, then invoked some convention … judge and jury, in a kangaroo court that has hung like shadow over nation ever since, probably inspiring the cavalier antics of abbott. both fraser and abbott just want an election when it suits them in opposition. the GG Kerr at the time took the blame, and his life, and there is Malcolm rewriting history and ethics once again tonight. he should be booeed off stage. puts paid to old adage about a conscience not sleeping well at night – he seems alert – how can he appear replendent in front of a modern generation on a panel about political stability. quel joke!!!!
Giddy up Gus, we’ll bring back Gough as well!
lefty.. Murdoch will make sure he stays PM unless he’s caught naked with a goat and a block of butter.
Dolphin and Cow coalition :kiss:
geoffrey, we cannot forgive Fraser for his conduct in 1975. But his ability to concisely sell Labor’s message and point out their faults in the campaign was something Labor could have done with
The four indies will be the same people whatever decision they make about forming government.
Of course, this being PB, they will be championed if they support Labor/Lib and vilified if the support the Libs/Labor, despite them being the same person (the combination will be determined by the bias of the bludger)
They will either be full of integrity or have no integrity.
So before they decide, I wonder how many people are happy to say each one is a person of integrity and decency who will make a good decision *which the bludger will respect*.
I’ll say I believe Windsor, Oakeshott and Wilkie are all honorable people and we should respect their decision *before they make it*.
Gold from Fraser
The reason why politics is a mess in this country is News Corporation, and their influence.
The pollies suck to them and are frightened of them, time someone stood up to them and tried to crush them because they run the country.
Look at them now, “the Australian” telling the Independents that they must side with Abbott and basically threatening them to do it.
These people run the country, In Queensland they despite the people of Queensland totally against it are significantly supporting Bligh and privatisation policies.
News Corporation
Fraser the best panelist by a mile, Jessica Rudd another bubble head and not far behind Christina Wallace.
Chris Berg a typical IPA dill.
Vera
the great man is sadly beyond a comeback
🙁
alongside curtn and chiff he will join the pantheon of leaders
Mal can only wish for such lofty heights
Dio, any decision to back Abbott and what he stands for I cannot respect, ever.
Talking about Bubble heads Julie Bishop is on Lateline, god help us. Time to turn to SBS.
cud, me too
Dio
if the undies can give cogent reasons for their decision
fair enough I say
even if they support Rabbott
🙁
I suspect Gough would be more than happy to see Fraser as PM if the alternative was Abbott or just about anyone else from the current Liberal Party!
Amen
problem is Gus, there cannot be a cogent reason for backing Abbott.
Don’t you enjoy being “stared” out through the TV?
Gough is now living about 50 metres from my latte sippers club. I don’t think it will be possible.
Marky use the force!!
JB is a source of power if you can channel the medusa rays
I use a brass mirror
😉
Gus
Yeah, sad about Gough. Margaret is still going strong I think.
Even ABC Lateline are reporting, completely incorrectly, that the Libs now have a higher 2PP vote than labor. Surely they could at least check with Antony Green before making fools of themselves about such things!
Three Boats as Health Minister was a disaster – he could not master a brief (no matter how short).
He also needed many many breaks – seemed always to be off on a two week bike ride. Sometimes senior public servants would follow his bike ride for days in the hopes of gaining an audience.
The pace of being PM (intellectual rather than physical) will see him making a major mistake wthin a month (thank god we don’t have a nuclear button).
The sheer number of decision she’ll need to make (with only the bunch of callow youths the LNP usually attract as advisers) will see him in melt-down.
Almost hope he wins now.
QED cud
🙂
Diog, do you have to be effing annoying
to be = to be so 😛
cc
You can’t say they are good people if they do what you want them to do and bad people if they do the opposite.
They are the same people either way.
Sorry madcyril,
I didn’t read duckulas’ membership application and resume fully. I shall scrutinize better if memberships open in the future. As of now no more room in the inn.
vera
my eldest bro says she is still doing fine
gough is not so good
They both have heaps of support around the clock
Sad that goughito nver became pres
🙁
Rod, whats the situation with the 2PP anyhow?
We need to be thankful that Malcolm F is still alive, kicking and expressing his thoughts about politics in Australia. He speaks loudly of the issues discussed here over the last week as the election has been analysed and pulled apart.
And tagging Murdoch and his acolytes – eureka!!
I hope that gets reported elsewhere – it should be shouted from the rooftops!
Why do the fibs hate Gough so much.
Is it because they know they’ll never reach his greatness.
News Corporation the only company in the country who possibly and allegedly defrauds the salary cap breachs and blames it on other people to get away with it,
in the process sacking independent board members and not their own and blame it on them whilst one of their own was on the board whilst the breaches occurred.
They may be a law onto themselves.
Diog, dont forget to bowl a NO ball on the last ball of over 76th. Else you dont pay!!!!
Fraser is the first high-profile figure I’ve ever heard speak the truth that way about Newscorp.
He is to be held in the highest regard for that.
If we’re serious on this site about media bias and its effect on our polity, nothing vindicates us like an ex-Liberal PM making our case against the Murdoch machine both here and abroad.
Labor here, and the Democrats abroad, should attack this evil force head-on.
Fraser has done what others should do.
Gus, yeah I would have loved Pres Gough and the way things are going Keating will be too old for the job by the time we bite the bullet too.
Hehe, no worries Doyley. The gang is complete!
[Hehe, no worries Doyley. The gang is complete!’
What, no room for a ltin scholar.
Howie sort of seems,well insignificant almost a speck?
You’d have to say that Kevin and Therese have done a great job in raising Jessica.
Arbeze, noone in the media will report it, the media are basically frightened of them because they own 70 percent of the media
in the country. This influence is a scandal of which no government has the guts to tackle.
Why doesn’t the Accc investigate how News Corp can monopolise markets in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
arbeze@4431
Their ABC will of course airbrush the attack on Rupert, instead they will highlight Mal’s comments on Labor.
OMG, Mesma is such an idiot
Because they’re hoping for jobs on the board?
Yeah
what about secret squirrel?
Mesma should stick to soften up the Undies
Dio, I’m prepared to accept the umpires (indies) decision. If they go with Abbott, then thats that. I think Wilkie, Oakeshott and Windsor seem like decent blokes and am happy to accept their decision.
Labor ran a crap campaign, was not united and were quite frankly lucky to end up with as many seats as they did. So if they go into opposition then there can be no complaints. (From me anyway) I’ll be disappointed but thats my problem
The only solution are campaigns to stop people from buying their papers. Political parties will do nothing. It was Labor who gave Murdoch the Herald and Weekly times.
Finns
mesma reminds me of my docs receptionist
except my docs recept dont freeze me to stone
🙁
Excellent question.
On Aunty: my view is that the ABC is not *inherently* biased towards the Tories – its they just know the coalition will actually target, punish and slash them when in office, whereas the ALP will not.