Minority report

With the final result still uncertain but increasingly looking like Liberal/National 73, Labor 72, independents four and Greens one, it’s time for a new thread.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,146 comments on “Minority report”

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  1. Hello All I nearly caused a by-election for someone decided to cut me off while crossing a intersection and he did look like the new MP for Bennenlong.

    Bugger if only I have been a tad faster (evil laugh)

  3. RE. WASecessionist
    This is a valid negotiating technique.
    However the Independents as members of parliament are entitled to ask for all of these things.
    This is how things are supposed to work in a parliamentary system, it is usually just not so obvious and the stakes are not as high.
    In theory (& in practice) parties are a means to make parliamentary process manageable, however they should be a means to an end , not an end in itself.

  5. Has Oakshott (sp. ?) got a crook neck, he always has his head on the side like a dog asking a question (ruff?), makes him look really sincere (initially) but I know it’s going to get annoying really fast. And why does Katter sound like he is taking his last breath every time he utters something – v dramatic these indies… the soap opera continues.

  11. [At the end of the day who cares about the current agreement. What matters is that we remain in power for as long as possible and it will be a loooooong time.]

    I have to hand it to your honesty. You’re not gonna peddle any wide eyed, happy clapping rhetoric that the Coalition are here to change thing but rather are just a bunch of monomaniacal, Machiavellian grubs who will say and do whatever it takes to entrench themselves in power.

    I thank you, sir.

  13. [Has Oakshott (sp. ?) got a crook neck, he always has his head on the side like a dog asking a question (ruff?), makes him look really sincere (initially) but I know it’s going to get annoying really fast. ]

    Cheryl Kernot had the same trick and it certainly got very annoying very quickly with her.

  15. ON ABC – Lateline

    Bob Brown – costings need to be transparent – libs rejecting public service independence.

    Making sense that the first day in the house of reps decides who has the support of the majority to form government.

  16. Another thing that seems to drift through the comments here is the fantasy that Turnbull has a chance of leading the Liberal party again. I have no doubt he also harbours the same delusion. This will never happen. He was not removed by a caucus coup orchestrated by Minchin and lead by Abbott. He was removed by a grass roots revolt in the lay party, and it was bitter one. I think he did command a majority in the caucus but the members of caucus were being absolutely bombarded by emails and calls from the lay party. It was unlike anything that had happened before. If Turnbull had remained leader the Liberal Party would have been absolutely destroyed at any election because the rusted on Liberal base would have completely deserted him and his party. I don’t know where those votes would go as the text of my share of emails stated, I had no idea who to vote for with Turnbull leading.

    Greatest Labor Prime Ministers this country will never have:

    1. Kim Beazley
    2. Malcolm Turnbull.

    Both capable men. One lead at the wrong time, the other the wrong party.

  17. [What matters is that we remain in power for as long as possible ]

    I don’t have any problems with Liberals thinking that. It’s certainly what I think. But it is a bit unsubtle to say it.

  18. [ On Councils not being “the crown”, I wonder why the AEC is so circumspect on that particular point?
    ]

    Because the AEC are fools.

  21. [But I can;t get over your losing.]

    Nobody’s losing and nobody’s winning.

    What we have is a parliament where both sides will be neck and neck with a handful of independents with BoP combined with a 2PP vote that is virtually neck and neck also.

    Nobody’s winning. There will be a “winner” when the indies make their decision but it will be a minor victory, regardless of whom they support!

  22. [Nostradamus is basically like his namesake.]

    I’d only believe he really was Nostradamus is if he wrote backwards in quatrains. And then we’ll have to throw his writings in the air and collect them randomly and hope we can understand them.

    Apart from writing backwards, his posts do remind me ….

  23. I would think that High Court Challenges are worth it in these seats because it would mean that even if the Coalition win all of them their MPs have been kept out for a little while or even quite a while. It would probably be worth checking with the Independents if they would look on such challenges with a dim view though. If the ALP gets enough support to stay before the by-election then the closer seats might decide to have a government MP and thus the ALP would needs less Independents.

  26. Tom the first and best@3923

    I would think that High Court Challenges are worth it in these seats because it would mean that even if the Coalition win all of them their MPs have been kept out for a little while or even quite a while. It would probably be worth checking with the Independents if they would look on such challenges with a dim view though. If the ALP gets enough support to stay before the by-election then the closer seats might decide to have a government MP and thus the ALP would needs less Independents.

    I think the ALP should stay well clear of this.

  29. TSOP

    I have the greatest respect ofr your posts – but when Julia stands at the dispatch box and wins the confidence motion WE HAVE WON

  30. [Night all — off to the Melb writers fest tomorrow to see Joss Whedon!]

    Tell him I hate him for what he did to Fred! 😉

  33. The AEC are not fools – they undertsand that the High Court has not ruled and that until it does their is no answer to the question whether councillors occupy offices of profit.

    that is the nature of constitutional law.

  38. Diog

    In response to an MSM claim that the Indies should follow their constituents
    and back Abbott,
    I simply showed that if they wanted to follow their supporters instead
    then they should back Gillard.

    You then countered that they should actually follow their constituents
    but you gave no reasons except to mention that it was connected
    with re-election.

    I then asked politely for you to explain your reasoning. Which you didn’t.

    I then showed an example where an MP should follow his/her
    supporters rather than the constituents.

    You then equivocated and brought in a claim about policy
    promises which was not relevant.

    Here is another example then. PM Gillard brings in a new
    subsidy for pet cats
    with support of new opposition leader Turnbull. ALP and Lib
    voters support it. 60% of Melbourne does. 40% ,
    including the Green voters doesn’t.
    Bandt should follow the majority or follow his supporters?

  39. 3926

    I believe that you don`t have to be a candidate to contest an MPs eligibility. They might even get challenged against the ALP`s wishes.

  41. Tom@3923

    Couldnt anybody challenge the Vexnews 4 on whether they were properly elected??

    Wouldnt have to be the ALP.

    I think thats what makes it so sticky for the Fibs.

    If they were to form a govt and say, pass a tax law which passed by 4 votes or less, couldnt someone, anyone with the means, who thought they would be disadvantaged by that law challenge it on the basis that crucial votes related to its passing were cast be people who legaly had no right to vote on it?

    Just imagine if an Abbott minority Govt passed a law enacting a resource super profits tax??

  42. [I have the greatest respect ofr your posts – but when Julia stands at the dispatch box and wins the confidence motion WE HAVE WON]

    Of course we have but we also have to appreciate that if we are in power for the next three years, it will be leased to us and we’ll need to rebuild our cred. If start governments are anything to go by, governing well will get us on the front foot again.

    I have this funny thought that, if Abbott fails now, he’ll become more unhinged and the Turnbull faction will suddenly be a thorn in his side, eventuating in him making a Lathamesque exit.

    Unlikely – but it’s a nice fantasy! 🙂

  43. While the Coalition certainly has no mandate to govern at 73/72, requiring less independents does give them a good argument for being the best choice for ‘stable government’.

  45. An update from Brisbane:

    [It was a bad day for the ALP in Brisbane today. We started the day just 382 behind, but finished it 743 behind for a combination of reasons, including over 50 votes being put in the wrong pile on Saturday night, the pre-poll from Nundah being counted (primarily people from Clayfield, Wooloowin, Ascot, Hamilton, Hendra) and the fact we lost by a couple of hundred votes on 3000 postal votes.

    In terms of what’s left, there are 1500 postal votes (these are ones which arrived since Saturday, but were posted in time), 1300 provisional votes (of which only about 200-300 will actually turn into real votes at all), 4,400 absentee pre-polls (ie people voting before polling day outside the electorate) and 4,700 absentees. That makes over 10,000 votes still to be looked at for the first time.

    My belief about those (and note that many of my predictions have been way off the mark!):

    The postals – who knows, we won round one comprehensively and lost round two comprehensively.
    The provisionals – traditionally favour us, but there are very few of them.

    The absentee-pre-polls – a mixed bag, including the people who did an absent pre-poll in Chermside or Ryan, which should be good for us, but also people like miners out in WA and regional QLD, which will likely be less good for the ALP.

    The absentees – ditto above.]

  47. Thanks Gusface @ 3932. Check that on Brown

    And how’s the re-bore going? I hope it won’t be as long and laborious as it will be for the Chilean miners. If you’ll excuse the analogy.

  49. [While the Coalition certainly has no mandate to govern at 73/72, requiring less independents does give them a good argument for being the best choice for ’stable government’.]

    Assuming they win Brisbane and none of the seats move back into doubtful, they require the same amount of independents as Labor!

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