Newspoll, Nielsen, Westpoll

So …

• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.

• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.

• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.

UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.

UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.

UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.

UPDATE 5: A late situation report.

New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.

Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.

Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.

Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.

South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.

Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

980 comments on “Newspoll, Nielsen, Westpoll”

Comments Page 9 of 20
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  1. [Too fill in 30 seconds of the long wait, here’s an extremely effective advertisement featuring someone who endorsed the Liberal Party.]
    When did he endorse the Liberals?

  3. The polite/environmentally sound approach to HTVs is to take one of each, then hand them back to the respective hander-outerers on the way out. (However, it is OK to make a cheeky amendment to the Libs one before doing so)

  4. Ultra safe lLib seat in Curtin – from Mesma:

    JulieBishopMP

    Booth 2 Subiaco Primary – poster of JG followed by borrowing $100 mill per day posters – nice placement guys 2 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone }

  5. [sky saying late swing to libs, can’t understand how that would be? (internal polling )]

    last gasp strike back of the dying murdoch empire knowing they have failed roll on julia

  6. [When did he endorse the Liberals?]

    This week he has appeared in Liberal advertisements on TV.

    “Fed up with Labor” was his message.

  8. Terrible. RIP.

    I am rather concerned about the highly parochial “Vote a Victorian for PM” posters in that SMH link above. Surely that will be seen on TV though more likely heard about on radio around the country in the next few hours and will be a huge turn off to Queenslanders in particular but also WA voters

  9. I thought Centrebet were closing when voting started – still running many options with Labor now under $1.40 and Libs/Abbott about $2.90. Not that punters always get it right – remember WA state election.

    Also had an idiot from one of the “Sport…” betshops last night saying that McKew was favoured in the polls in 2007. Thats news??? Also people saying “Chinese going for Libs in Bennelong” is strange – Chinese will be split although the recent betting might suggest some of the punters might be active.

  10. I’ll be taking in my own HTV card on the back of an envelope later this afternoon (the other side of a random morning shift at work)… Sex Party below the line, for the sole reason that they’ve got the LDP high up on their ticket (down below the CEC for me… goddamn anti-tax weirdos). I almost had a party I could vote above the line for, but no. Ah well, 55 boxes it is.

    As for the lower house, carrrrn Alannah. CARRRN. Also carn the Green in Grayndler, who takes out her competition. Hello Australia, you’re about to get a new transport minister, an arse-kicking lady from the (north) west.

    PS: William / Frank / Fulvio / etc, have you seen Anthony Fels’ posters? Worst photoshopping ever. I saw it on page 2 of yesterday’s election wraparound in the West, then last night on several posters in the window of an Indian restaurant on James St in Northbridge. Rather odd.

  11. I don’t know why, but Bob Katter has some extreme resentment towards the National Party. He seems like someone who would ask his constituency and make a list of demands to both parties.

    Tony Windsor sounded like a very competent, thoughtful person who would do what he thought would be best for the nation and his electorate. If it came down to a crunch, I think he’s be a very objective and good speaker.

    I’m not sure about Oakeshott.

    There is no way in the world that Adam Bandt would support the Liberal Party so if the ALP end up with 75 seats, you can be guaranteed they’d offer him the speaker role.

    After hearing Katter and Windsor talk about Parkes, I think it might be a seat to watch.

  12. Just voted in Fairfax, very quiet hardly any queue. Greens had the best position with a tarago parked at the gate covered in Green stuff.

  13. Re election betting, I remember in 1993, NT bookies were still taking bets (given the 90 minute time difference in summer) when counting was well under way in Tasmania, offering a great opportunity to back what was fast emerging as an unlikely Labor victory

  14. Deewhytony re how-to-vote cards: COMMONWEALTH ELECTORAL ACT 1918 – SECT 328B doesn’t seem to prevent adverts on the back; mostly about font sizes and truth in authorisation.

  18. Uncouth female host on ch7 asked what effect the just announced (the tragic) deaths of the two Australian soldiers in Afghanistan would have on the election. Their families will be totally in grief and whatever people think of the war, no-one wants to members of our ADF to lose their lives. I thought it was one of the most crass things I have heard in this campaign coverage. (I should be able to watch an impartial abcnews24 but I cannot stand Tripoli’s right-wing bias anymore.) Our news media is truly feral.

  19. barryofarrell

    just told ALP workers in Lindsay are handing out Greens how-to-votes at Werrington Public School #usualalpdirtytricks 1 minute ago via web

    And:

    vote7news

    First Exit Poll: Bennelong poll of 100 voters taken between 9-10am showed LIB 53, LAB 29, GRN 13, OTH 2 and INF 3 #ausvotes 3 minutes ago via txt

  21. [Greens had the best position with a tarago parked at the gate]

    Did you see Branden Nelson nearby with a crate of Bundy and coke?

  28. First Exit Poll: Bennelong poll of 100 voters taken between 9-10am showed LIB 53, LAB 29, GRN 13, OTH 2 and INF 3 #ausvotes 3 minutes ago via txt

    Oh dear.

  31. [ He seems like someone who would ask his constituency and make a list of demands to both parties. ]

    That is exactly how he is, Katter was very disillusioned with the Nats because as he sees it they sold it’s rural constituency down the river to go hand in hand with the Libs.
    I have hear him say in person, ” don’t tell anyone but I get along very well with Kevin Rudd.” It’s funny because on social issues he is very conservative but on a lot of issues he is more left that the Labor.

  32. The dream.

    ALP narrow win and tidies up its own mess – why should the LIB/NATS have to do it?

    Tony Abbott consolidates, learns, reforms and develops international profile.

    Wins well in 2013.

    Goes on to be one of Australia’s great PMs.

  33. Off to vote – markets have us better than two thirds chance of winning – newspoll 1000- 1.They can’t both be right,anyway we shall soon no one way or the other.

  34. Puff the dragon: agree re crass comment on deaths but somebody was bound to do it. On Trioli and right wing bias. I’m not sure that it is ideological: I think it is driven in most journos’ case by combination of ‘tall poppy’, smarty pants, cynicism, and ignorance. Many see politics and government as an inferior occupation, beneath them – when it should be an honourable profession and seen as such except in exceptional cases of bastardry.

  35. [First Exit Poll: Bennelong poll of 100 voters taken between 9-10am showed LIB 53, LAB 29, GRN 13, OTH 2 and INF 3 #ausvotes 3 minutes ago via txt]
    100? Not nearly enough.

  38. [100? Not nearly enough.]
    And WHERE? If it was in a Liberal booth then it means nothing. They should go to a booth that polled close to 50/50 last time.

  39. I don’t know why, but Bob Katter has some extreme resentment towards the National Party.

    He resents their cave-in to NeoCon Liberals, betraying rural Oz’s best interests. Given that the Country/ National Party was agrarian-socialist, and had acted as a restraining force on Liberals’ metro-central capitalist attitudes, justifiably so. This resentment is the root of the Nats’ declining vote & representation in rural areas. They get much more out of their Inde MHRs than they do out of the Nats.

    Mad as a cut snake; but he does put in the hard yards – well, far more than that – for his constituents. Hardly agree with a word he says, but have a sneaking regard for him for that.

  43. I was just half a second away from causing a by-election in Stirling. The short-cut to my local Maccas runs behind Michael Keenan’s electorate office, and just as I was leaving the laneway, who should step across in front of my car but the man himself! I thought about doing the right thing, but braked.

    At least I got to abuse him!

  46. I voted at about 9am at Mansfield SHS in Bonner.

    Voting lineup about 50 yards or so long outside door, but moving along well. Booth well organised and staffed.

    Representatives from Independent and FF and Greens as well as major parties present.

    Greens candidate Darryl Rosin handing out his own how to vote pamphlets, and periodically spruiking that a vote for him was a double value vote, as you could vote for him and then “the major party of your choice”.

    Actually his card has the independent second, and ALP third, then the LIB-NAT followed by FF and DLP. (Not sure now of the exact order of the two last ones)

  49. Mumble on the Newspoll. Interesting.
    [Today’s Newspoll, of all three nights, has Labor on 36.2 and the Coalition on 43.4. We don’t know the early unrounded numbers, but it means the Thursday 800 strong portion was more pro-Labor, perhaps about 38 for ALP, Coalition 41 or 42 (and Greens on 14). That would be a Labor win, a two party preferred lead of at least four percent.]

  50. Alright, if Possum’s simulation points to a hung parliament, I’m sold.

    I’m inclined to think the independents will support Labor. Bandt has already indicated he would support Labor.

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