So …
• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.
• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.
• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.
UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.
UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.
UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.
UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.
UPDATE 5: A late situation report.
New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.
Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.
Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.
Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.
South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.
Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.
[Adds up to : 76 ALP ; 70 LIB/NAT ; 3 IND ; 1 GRN]
That is as good as Labor 80 Coal 70
Resigns as Lib leader (but not from Parliament, unless Rupert’s made him a more lucrative offer). Has a nervous breakdown trying to finance his Great Big Personal Debt on back-bencher’s salary. Marg renegotiates loan to be paid from his pension & gets herself a paid job.
As the morning rolls on I am growing more confident of a Labor win.
[Mumble predicts the ALP with 79-80 seats.]
I like Mumble :kiss: and dont like Bilbo 😛
re bennelong exit polling,
it’s only 1 booth!
Every time I have seen Bob Katter being critical of the LNP, he has ended by saying that Labor are far worse. I would not count on him to support an ALP Government, if that support is needed.
Voted in my seat of Adelaide this morning. Very low key where I was. Liberals had the fence covered in “Labor borrowed another $100m today”. I laughed.
Voted Greens of course. Decided to stick to the HTV and preferenced Kate Ellis 4th and Libs 5th. I would of preferenced Ellis 2nd but I’m not a big fan of her ties to the SDA.
On the independents, I think for it to be safe for Labor, we need 73.
Tony Windsor and Bob Katter have said they would look to who got the most votes. If Labor is on 72, I think the Coalition will form government, with the help of 2 independents.
However, on 73, add a Green + 2 independents and Labor is safe.
You could argue that Labor could even get away with 72 as Labor would likely form a more functional government, working with the Greens to pass legislation in the Senate.
Looking at their platforms, the independents want infrastructure investment and they want the NBN. Labor already has a plan to deliver these things. Tony Abbott just wants to cut spending.
So, my call is:
72 for Labor = shaky territory
73 = 75% likelihood that Gillard will form government
74 = 100% likelihood that Gillard will form government
[sky saying late swing to libs, can’t understand how that would be? (internal polling )]
Surprise? Only few moments ago, Britney was still prostituting himself saying dont look at the national polls but focus on the regional numbers. As i called it Slynews indeed.
Lest we forget.
For our tomorrow they gave their today.
No matter what your political affiliation –
Value your vote, to do them honour.
Just voted in Nicola’s seat.
Safe as houses, only labor green and Sex party passing out how to vote cards.
No Libs.
Nicola got the Donkey vote on her Card 🙂
what are odds of Labor gaining Paterson in NSW?
2000 odd msm flunkies
trying to influence 14m voters
for one man
Oh BTW cold as buggery, Southerly wind with rain on the way.
I love our organised system of voting. A quiet, patient line of people, ushered into a new BER hall, to a well orgnised AEC setup.
As i said to someone this morning when they compalined that it was “boring” to vote – “i bet the people of China wouldn’t think so”.
Regardless of the outcome, I’ve performed my civic duty, and also had the opportunity to have my say.
JoffaBoy
We are a pretty civilised lot!
Gusface
We will know tonight if the MSM succeeded.
two diggers killed, while we vote…
perspective
What a horrible day for John Faulkner on his last day as Minister for Defence.
Malcolm Mackerras predicting Greens candidates to be elected to the Senate in each state today – therefore 9 Greens senators from next July.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/senate-to-appear-a-deeper-red-with-extra-green/story-fn59niix-1225907613795
[Mumble predicts the ALP with 79-80 seats.]
Yeah, but it is one of those silly opinion articles that has the word \”may\” in the title.
In theory ANYTHING \”may\” happen.
BK
Have the soldiers been named?
Just got back from doing Green HTVs at Northcote. We’re no chance in Mar’n’s seat – but on the basis of today, I quite fancy Greens for the state seat.
Had a chat with some Labor heads – they privately reckon Melbourne is gooooooorrrrn.
Agree 100%. How many Burmese teenagers have given their life to have the rights we take for granted and the right to vote that a lot of people dont give a shit about. Having sais that if the rabbott gets up Burma may not look too bad!
Roll on 6pm – end of the truce. 😆
ruawake
still confident Qld will hold up well?
I just got one of those automated poll things. WTF?? Why can they do this on election day? I hung up on it anyway – what a cheek.
Rox – it was the Sky exit poll.
[still confident Qld will hold up well?]
Yep just like Swannie – quietly confident.
ruawake
great!
Anyone live streaming tonight?
Just did 2 hours at a Boothby booth for Labor. Record number of people did not take any HTV cards. More took Labor only than Lib only. Was nice and cold!
Annabel Crabb on ABC24 saying that the Libs are looking cheerful and that NSW has collapsed for Labor.
political animal #480
sounds promising, do you have a feel/word on the street about our chances????
Biting my nails and off to vote in the seat of Makin.
And neither he nor the majority of his constituents would support the ALP; that’s not the point. The measure of a good MP is whether s/he fights to the limit for her/his constituency, not whether s/he supports one’s own views.
My local MP is (& will continue to be after today) Liberal. I don’t vote for him; don’t even 2nd/ 3rd preference him (not that he needs preferences). But he’s a hard-working & very effective local member. Any time I’ve needed to contact his office, the response has been courteous, fast and appropriate. Never once have I been asked what party I support.
In fact, if Abbott (whom he has good reason to despise & would not have supported in the leadership ballot) loses, I’ll feel sorry for him – in the same way I felt sorry for good ALP members in 2004 – for a very similar reason. He may even end up as a stop-gap Oppo Leader charged with reforming the Liberals – not that the NSW Right would want him to (& that says heaps).
This is a democracy. We want, like crazy, our own mob to win the election. But when we need help, we want a bloody good local member, irrespective of what party her/his party is.
[Annabel Crabb on ABC24 saying that the Libs are looking cheerful and that NSW has collapsed for Labor.]
And just how would she know this?
[Every time I have seen Bob Katter being critical of the LNP, he has ended by saying that Labor are far worse]
I wonder if that was before Rudd took over? I heard Katter on Lateline the other night praising Labor for delivering infrastructure to his electorate.
ruawake – wishful thinking?
how many seats can Libs realistically pick up in NSW?
political animal
[Just did 2 hours at a Boothby booth for Labor. Record number of people did not take any HTV cards. More took Labor only than Lib only. Was nice and cold!]
I just voted in Boothby and noticed the same thing. No-one wanted HTV cards.
Just for the record I voted ASP in the Senate and Secular in the Reps.
Libs very gloomy at my booth in Boothby too. Lots of JG posters, not a one of the mad monk, isn’t that interesting
ruawake @ 485,
coz she has powers. media powers.
@victoria
Up to 10 from Labor’s notional 88.
JJ Fiasson
in NSW alone? Is that realistic though?
Jesus Christ!
Labor just can’t get a break can they?.
First term they had a mandate but a hostile senate and now they could end up with a friendlier senate with the Greens getting the balance of power but Labor will get a minority government having to deal with formers Nats. WTF?!
or she think she has
Any chance we can dust off the old “Bribane- Adelaide line” policy from 1942? At the very least we should let WA go its own way like it wants to, If Deep North Queensland wants to join in then so be it.
How can Annabel Crabbe say NSW has collapsed for Labor?
[Rox – it was the Sky exit poll.]
’nuff said. They’re goung to skew anything they touch!
the problem with crabbe saying alp vote is collapsing is that she may be more right on election day as it is happening, sources who knows, but it does not sound good at all.