So …
• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.
• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.
• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.
UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.
UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.
UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.
UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.
UPDATE 5: A late situation report.
New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.
Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.
Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.
Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.
South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.
Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.
I voted.
Kooyong is so boring. 🙁
@victoria
That includes:
Lindsay
Greenway
Dobell
Page
Eden-Monaro
Bennelong
Macarthur
Gilmore
Macquarie
Robertson
My understanding is that Greenway and Eden-Monaro should be Labor retains, however. Anyone else care to comment?
That leaves us with a worst-case scenario of 8 down in NSW.
I personally think JGs only major campaign blunder was being seen anywhere near the NSW Premier.
Whoever came up with that idea needs their head read!
JJ – if 8 go in NSW then it’s all over.
if we lose 8 in NSW we are absolutely f##$%!
OZPol,
As my previous post was a response to other posts canvassing the possibility that Bob Katter might support the ALP in the event of a ‘hung’ Parliament, it certainly was to the point.
However, I also agree with the general sentiment of your post, and agree that a hardworking local member can represent their constituents well, in many ways, regardless of their political affiliation.
ASBV 482
Those people not taking cards didn’t take any cards so I dunno. Think it will be OK, not a lot of baseball bats in evidence 🙂
i just voted in Melbourne, a lot of green HTV in people’s hands.
lefty – Gillard schmaltzing with Kenneally and the “Yes we will” will be seen as turning points, if she loses.
we have all established SA is completely free from baseball bats, NSW and QLD has bats, but what is going on in Vic?
Assuming a 5% uniform swing in QLD:
Brisbane
Bonner
Petrie
Leichardt
Forde
Dawson
Flynn
Longman
Dickson
Herbert
Though I believe that Brisbane and Longman are expected retains, although Longman is doubtful after that conference stuff-up.
That leaves us with a potential 8 seat loss in Queensland.
oh crap, have to travel 2 and a bit hours to get to my electorate of macqaurie. *sigh*
We don’t know how many Coalition will loose in this election against what they gain in NSW.
Seems like the ‘south will have to rise again’ to get us over the line
BBD
Likely to gain one or two seats here in Vic, but lose two as well, namely Melbourne and Corangamite. Therefore Status Quo. If NSW does lose that many seats, Labor will be in trouble.
Yep, two major and very stupid clangers, Glory.
Let’s see if they dodge the bullet…
Katter (and the other disaffected ex-Nationals) must be rubbing their hands – once in a lifetime opportunity to cement their legacy
OzPol Tragic @ 484:
Don’t you think that the “bread-and-butter” issues handled by a good local candidate are secondary considerations? Without the primary broad canvas of an ethical society (i.e one which is fair and equitable), parish pump issues count for very little.
Voted early (cold, but was thinking of Boerwar and Bluey up at Bredbo so felt it would be wimpish complaining!) and now running around between places of work.
[457 JJ Fiasson]
I worry about that 73-1-3-73 result – I have a feeling the independents would be more likely to support Gillard if it was 74-3-73.
Condolences to familes of soldiers killed – I was saying this morning to one of my non-voting kids on way to booth that most people in the world cannot do what I was about to do (with any safety or certainty in the process even if they “vote”)
I keep saying to myself “all of these idiots saying Labor are gawn are just Liberal cheerleaders”. Maybe, but they also want to keep a job after the election and have credibility. Bongiorno and Oakes calling a Labor loss was interesting.
Goddammit. Please win.
[Annabel Crabb on ABC24 saying that the Libs are looking cheerful and that NSW has collapsed for Labor.]
Because, like i alwyas said of her, Crappy Crabby. She is a media personality rather than a serious journo.
postals will be very interesting this time- every election ALP gets better and better at this. In SA state poll it actually made a big positive diff for ALP result
For those of you confident of a Labor win – why? what makes you think that? I hope you’re right and it’s not just stupid gut instincts. My gut instincts mid-week had Labor winning….but now, I don’t know.
The Finnigans
What is Crappy basing voting collapse on. Exit polls?
Hanging out with the dud state government premier at a train station in western sydney……what f#$$%^% genius came up with that one. Sorry for swearing a lot but starting to get a bad feeling about today.
Had my appointment with Lady Democray
The ALP, Libs and Greens were well represented.
The Greens had pictures of their candidate
The ALP had pictures of Jules
The Liberals had picture of Josh
No Tony to be seen.
Just going to vote now in Page. Goooo Safin
victoria @ 520,
her media powers
ty
hope you are right. NSW worries me somewhat.
[what f#$$%^% genius came up with that one]
Im guessing some genius who really had NSW state ALP uppermost in their mind.
Guess who?
Very long queues at my local booth (in a safe Labor seat, where I have been voting for nearly 20 years), much longer than I have ever seen.
No idea what that means, if anything.
Is not the barometer, where Eden-Monaro goes, the country goes?
Just Me
Which electorate?
David
That has been the case since 1972 apparently.
lefty e 527
spot on, furniture saving for state NSW labor next year. The ALP win or lose is going to have to have a serious look at this campaign
What links can we follow for exit polls? Sky?
There were huge screeds of Lib posters in Sturt and Boothby about 10m long in red saying WTTE that Labor had borrowed another $100M today to pay its debt.
Worst case scenario:
Possible NSW losses (8.8% swing) – 8 possible losses:
Lindsay?
Dobell
?Page
??Bennelong
?Macarthur
?Gilmore?
Macquarie?
Robertson
Not counting Eden-Monaro and Greenway as these are considered likely retains.
Possible QLD losses (5% swing) – 10 possible losses:
Brisbane
Bonner
Petrie
Leichardt
Forde
Dawson
Flynn
Longman
Dickson
Herbert
Brisbane is believed to be a retain, however.
Possible WA losses (5% swing) – 2 possible losses:
Hasluck
Swan
Possible NT losses – 1 possible loss:
Solomon
Possible VIC losses – 2 possible losses:
Corangamite
Melbourne
Bottom line, worst-case scenario:
Labor loses 23 seats from their notional 88, leaving them on 65.
This is assuming no gains.
[Is not the barometer, where Eden-Monaro goes, the country goes?]
You’d have to suspect it’s as good a guide as any seat in this election as well. I think if Labor loses EM they are gone.
JJ Fiasson
No poll done throughout this whole campaign has suggested such huge swings.
Melissa Stokes on AbbottsBC24 this morning saying how much hard work it had been for her tracking the movements of the leaders and then up comes a graphic credited to Crikey!
Is there any more detail on the alleged late swing to Abbott from Sky News? Someone said it was their exit polling, but from where? Handed out in Parramatta this morning – seems ok on the ground there, but I mean who knows?
God, the waiting, it’s horrific.
David Eden-Monaro has been seen as a bellwether seat since the 70s. The press reckon it won’t be anymore because Kelly will win even if ALP lose.
Can’t see more than 4 seats going in NSW, despite all the naysayers. I reckon Bennelong and Lindsay will stay in Labor hands (the people in Lindsay already had their vent against state labor earlier this year).
I don’t think we’ll lose more than 4 in Qld either.
The newspoll Qld primaries were dead-set wrong. And it has to be taken into account that if the Greens do poll as well as they think on Primaries, both ALP and Coalition will now get lower primaries as a matter of course. So the less than 40 scenario is moot.
It’ll be a case of up a bit here, down a bit there, but when everything comes out in the wash the losses will not be as bad as the MSM would like us to think.
And don’t forget how solid the betting has been …
vic @ 526,
who isn’t worried about nsw?
think the big unknown will be the 18-30 demographic. i’ve been crapping on about it but it’s so difficult to poll that particular demographic, because they’re so rarely at home and, even if they are, they’re so reluctant to answer questions.
The Sky News “late swing” is coming from absolutely nowhere.
Tks Victoria, thought so…..hey some of you fine folk will bring on ulcers worrying so much…..time to worry is tonight if the trend in returns is bad….on that Crabb person…I will be offering her a few thoughts tomorrow , none very pleasant, regardless of the result.
gloryconsequence
what does that mean?
Just phone polled in cook by jws. Results on ten news and 7pm project from 6 apparently.
alias from a few pages ago. It was the Croydon Senior Citizens Club near Safeway.