So …
• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.
• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.
• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.
UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.
UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.
UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.
UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.
UPDATE 5: A late situation report.
New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.
Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.
Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.
Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.
South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.
Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.
Hmm Exit polls were overwhelmingly for Gore in 2000, bad example though I guess.
Exit polls are not to be trusted.
As a person who does not bet on anything. What is the psychology at the moment. Polls show Labor slightly ahead, Media saying Libs are surging, betting a return on Labor is not as profitable as on the Libs, so why is the money still on Labor?
briefly @ 728, I did hear from a family friend in Melbourne, that there was rather a nasty public spat between Family First and the Greens at a downtown polling station in Melbourne?
dont panic captian mainwaring
captain even
Sky will have an exit poll, which was prepared on wednesday night lol
I’d reckon Boothby is so close no-one’s willing to do their dough on a bet. Lots of young activists at my booth too – that’s a first ever
coalition out to $3.25 on betfair
If exit polls were true… we’d have:
President Kerry in 2004
President Gore in 2000
Prime Minister Kinnock in 1992
Prime Minister Beazley in 1998
you get the idea?
That said, I would expect exit polls tonight (if they haven’t been cooked) to say 51-52 for ALP TPP
[I wonder if there is any feedback from Labor people from polling places in NSW and QLD – has anyone seen any baseball bats? ]
Or boats? Especially the folks in Lindsay who are supposed to be wary of them.
Briefly, there was a long queue at a booth in Bonner when I voted but it was all very sedate. Labor and the Greens were very happy with the way things were going.
Liberal Party of Australia, since 1949, 42 years in office, 19 years in opposition, I guess it hurts, my dear ALP antagonists.
@739
Always follow the money!
Just a thought re betting markets…..
Regarding the National outcome of this election where the bookies and Betfair have consistently given the win to Labor….and still do….what has influenced the punters to put their hard-earned on when the MSM has been spruiking the coalition to win?
It defies logic…….shouldn’t the weight of money be on a coalition win?…..what’s holding the punters back?……..maybe in the final analysis, they just can’t see Rabbott as the next PM……..
I cant believe the idiot population of NSW allowing the chance of Abbott becoming PM, Why do the rest of the states have to pick up after NSW?
Just voted at Daceyville Catholic school which is right in the middle of Kingsford Smith. Not the richest part of the electorate but if it isn’t the poorest, it would be close to it. Wouldn’t call it working class eitheras there are a lot of disabled living there (very flat area) plus some Housing Commission. It is probably the closest thing this part of Sydney has to a “Western Sydney” seat. The feedback from the ALP lady was that it was “50/50” where it should really be 60/40 in these parts. She also said there was a lot of hostility towards her. Take that any way you like but the last time I heard that sort of thing was in 2004. This sounds very ominous to me.
Also played golf with someone who “knows JA pretty well”. Said he was quietly confident, as you would expect. My overall take is that people have taken the bait about debt hook, line and sinker. Even people I would have expected a lot more of. I think we are just a few days from the “Aw, look at Labor’s debt. Looks like we won’t be able to… (insert broken promise of choice)”.
rangasrule
thats the key to it i have always found
I remember trying to hand a HTV card to Clover Moore , after a while it just becomes a blur.. She game me a funny look (dems 95 state election) -another world away.
@740
Not to mention Premier Redmond
Cuppa I don’t think ABC journos are covered by APS values but they would mostly be members of the Australian Journalists Association:
(see para 1 particularly)
AJA CODE OF ETHICS
Respect for truth and the public’s right to information are fundamental principles of journalism. Journalists describe society to itself. They convey information, ideas and opinions, a privileged role. They search, disclose, record, question, entertain, suggest and remember. They inform citizens and animate democracy. They give a practical form to freedom of expression. Many journalists work in private enterprise, but all have these public responsibilities. They scrutinise power, but also exercise it, and should be accountable. Accountability engenders trust. Without trust, journalists do not fulfil their public responsibilities. MEAA members engaged in journalism commit themselves to
• Honesty
• Fairness
• Independence
• Respect for the rights of others
1. Report and interpret honestly, striving for accuracy, fairness and disclosure of all essential facts. Do not suppress relevant available facts, or give distorting emphasis. Do your utmost to give a fair opportunity for reply.
http://www.australian-news.com.au/codethics.htm
RangasRule
The exit poll for the BBC general election last year was pretty much spot on. For every disaster I’m sure polling firms look at improving their methodology year on year.
Labor vote is holding up in Qld and most marginals in NSW.
Strong, almost implausible, swings to Labor in SA and Vic.
Not much movement in WA, but still early there obviously.
[Laocoon
Just passed the Five ways polling booth…I tell you, if there was ever any requirement for evidence of Malcolm Turnbull’s narcissist personality…wow, I have seen candidate pictures, but these blocked out the sun!]
“Since the beginning of time man has yearned to destroy the sun” – Montgomery Burns (quoting libs climate policy i think)
in the uk election they media said hung parliament but betting said cameron would be pm unequivocally and so proved right again.
In a normal case what is the donkey vote worth in % terms ?
TIA
[Prime Minister Kinnock in 1992]
Why do people keep repeating this lie? Both the BBC and the ITN exit polls predicted the Conservatives as the largest party in a hung parliament. That does not translate to a prediction of “Prime Minister Kinnock.” Their coverage can be found on YouTube, in fact.
Code of Journalists’ Ethics?
Best contradiction in terms for the campaign!!
A great South Australian specific poster at the booth: a particularly ugly mugshot of Barnaby Joyce (mind you, is there any other kind?) and his words of wisdom on the Murray: that people should “move to where the water is”.
The main strapline: Put the Liberals Last.
I hope it’s everywhere in the state; I doubt it was making much difference here among the comfortable folk of North Adelaide!
[Polls show Labor slightly ahead, Media saying Libs are surging, betting a return on Labor is not as profitable as on the Libs, so why is the money still on Labor?]
Because despite the media spin, most people who are willing to risk their hard-earned, believe Labor will win. Speccing on the Libs is merely wishful thinking or bet hedging. If there was a real belief amongst the punters, the Libs would be firming as we speak.
Darren Laver – how on earth could you possibly know that?
I have no idea why South Australian ALP are holding out for Sturt. It is a lost cause. The coalition have more chance of snagging Beasley’s old seat in Brand. The markets put Sturt at 18% for the ALP and Brand at 23% for the Coalition.
In the queues for Ryan in QLD today, there for 30 minutes, did not see a single person even take an ALP how to vote card. Conversation in the queue about Tony coming home. Not very surprising though, a pretty Lib booth.
Middleman, Mrs MM and baby MM ran into Kevin R at the local high school when voting an hour ago. got a family happy snapp with him. Lovely man. Told him we thought he was the bees knees… had a little too firm a hold on Mrs MM for my liking though!
Just voted in South Hobart, Denison. Apparently all well behaved there and no dodgy HTV stuff.
[idiot population of NSW]
Too much humor in this to miss. NSW can either deliver us the NSW right Labor which destroyed NSW or deliver Abbott. Either way NSW is the devil.
I guess they think the only atonement they can make for the NSW government is to make sure they don’t deliver the same on a national scale. You should thus be thanking them. lol
Token yank – but Labour was expected to form a coalition or minority government in 1992 off the exit polls (with the backing of Lib Dems and Scottish nationalists).
But of course as this year showed, perhaps the Lib Dems would have propped up a Major government against conventional wisdom! We’ll never know.
http://twitter.com/sspencer_63
@Pollytics TEN news has a 28,000 sample JWS robocall poll – details at 6.
Victoria polling shows that more than twice as many people think we will win than the Libs and the betting is a reflection of that.All the big agencies have stopped trading on the election now so we only have betfair and exit polls to go on if we are trying to divine what is the likely outcome.
Saturday is normally a very busy work day for me with the metro horse racing but I am giving it a miss today simply can’t concentrate.I have butterflies in my stomach.
cupidstunt
It was a hung Parliament and Cameron did end up as PM; both were right!
762 Blue Skies
It’s actually what you achieve while in office that matters, not how many years you sit there.
Post 772 Darren Laver, who is your source ?
In my household, Howard won a 5th term back in 2007, and that wasn´t really the case… So wake up from your dreams, NSW and Qld are swinging strongly towards the Coalition.
Dammuz re donkey vote I remember an article many years ago which talked about 2-3 per cent as I recall, depending on electorate.
museboy
cheers!
Victoria, you have a very endearing trait of asking everybody else’s opinions. I suspect your opinion is the one that counts most. What do you reckon?
Don’t worry about the MSM – remember last weekend – a very long tine ago, and they were all excited about the Galaxy marginal poll.
Why would they start showing a balanced coverage now?
Garret won the daceyville booth by 32 votes in 2007. 😛
[Post 772 Darren Laver, who is your source ?
In my household, Howard won a 5th term back in 2007, and that wasn´t really the case… So wake up from your dreams, NSW and Qld are swinging strongly towards the Coalition.]
I am just making it up as is Sky and Their ABC!
cspom @ 756
[Sky will have an exit poll, which was prepared on wednesday night lol]
Surely only 2/3 prepared on Wednesday night?
Victoria
Several large bets have held up the ALP for more than a week now. Another few large bets for the ALP came in this morning. In terms of the number of bets, the flow has apparently been a torrent of smaller ones for the coalition.
Average disaffected voters who like a punt would have no idea how close the Coalition is in terms of the number of marginals they are likely to win.
These two factors alone could account for this discrepancy.
There is not one piece of news on the seats market in the last 72 hours that has been kind to Labor. Several more fallen to coalition, none the other way.
Game over for the ALP.
McGinty tips Libs
[The former WA Labor Party power broker Jim McGinty believes Australia will wake up tomorrow morning to Tony Abbott as the new prime minister.]
Dammuz late mail on donkeys:
“Since party names began to be printed on ballot papers, the donkey vote appears to have fallen, voters at least able to distinguish which party a candidate represents. The Donkey vote was once estimated to be 2-3%, but in more recent times appears to be less than one percent.”
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/glossary.htm#donkey_vote